1 CHIPS 2008 CFPS Chen Li Solon

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1 No ZHEJIANG SOCIAL SCIENCES May 2014 * 1 李力行周广肃 * Kxjc - jc

2 1 CHIPS 2008 CFPS Chen Li Solon

3 Becker Tomes Khor Pencavel 2010 Behrman Taubman 1985 Deng et al Behrman Rosenzweig assortative mating Currie Moretti % 2012 Plug Vijverberg % - 60% Chen Cowell 2013 mobility Golley Kong Hellerstein Morrill Emran Shilpi 2011 Lucas Kerr rank Yang 1994 Bian

4 Chinese Household Income Project Survey CHIPS Solon log incomei = β 0 + β 1 log fincome i + 表 1 β 2 age i + β 3 age i 2 + β 4 fage i + β 5 fage i 2 + u i u i 1% Plug Vijverberg 表 Hellerstein Morrill 2011 Currie Moretti CHIPS2002 CHIPS

5 CHIPS eduyears feduyears party fparty logincome logfincome age age fage fage eduyears feduyears logincome logfincome age age fage fage 注 : CHIPS 数据中党员身份收入数据仅包括 1995 和 2002 年样本 cohort CHIPS CHIPS 表 2 15

6 2 logfincome *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** R - squared Observations 数据来源 : 2005 年人口抽样调查数据 Deng et al CHIPS 表表 3 图 1 95% 图 Chen et al logfincome *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** age * age fage * ** *** *** *** *** fage * ** *** *** *** *** R - squared Observations 数据来源 : 2005 年人口抽样调查数据 16

7 数据来源 : 2005 年人口抽样调查数据 2 数据来源 : 作者根据 CHIPS 和 2007 城市样本数据计算 Bjorklund Probit Jantti 表 Hellerstein Morrill 2011 Corak Heisz CHIPS 5 图 2 17

8 occupation - specific human capital feduyears *** logfincome ** Chen et al fparty *** cohort_ CHIPS *** Chen et al cohort_ *** ** cohort_ *** ** cohort_ *** *** cohort_ *** * *** Pseudo R - squared Observations 数据来源 : CHIPS 和 2007 城市样本 edu i = β 0 + β 1 fedu i + β 2 age i + β 3 age i 2 β 4 fage i + β 5 fage i 2 + u i 2 edu fedu fedu CHIPS 图

9 China Family Panel Studies CFPS 3 数据来源 : 作者根据 CHIPS( 上图 ) 和 2005 年人口抽样调查数据 ( 下图 ) 计算 Meng et al 图 3 19

10 Hu and Yao 2011 Probit Probit y * y * > 数据来源 : 作者根据 CHIPS 数据计算注 : 图中纵穿三角形的线段代表估计值的 95% 置信 * 2 y i = β 0 + β 1 fparty i + β 2 age i + β 3 age i + 区间 β 4 fage i + β 5 fage 2 i + u i u i ~ i. i. d. N 0 σ 2 * Prob party i = 1 = Prob y i > 0 = 1-2 Φ β 0 + β 1 fparty i + β 2 age i + β 3 age i + β 4 fage i + β 5 fage 2 i 3 party fparty CHIPS Probit 图 4 β1 图 4 Li et al

11 信息 4 本文估算出的整体代际收入弹性较低, 一个可能的原因是没有对年龄两端极端值进行过多的限制 5 押沙龙中国古代职业继承奇闻, 政府法制文摘版 2011 年 4 月 6 为节省篇幅, 我们没有详细汇报回归结果 ( 作者可以单独提供 ), 而是把估计出的弹性画成图, 下文中关于子女早期教育和认知, 以及政治身份的代际传递的回归结果也从略 1. Becker,Gary and Barry Chiswick,1966, Education and the Distribution of Earnings,American Economic Review,56( 1 /2),pp Becker,Gary,Kevin Murphy and Jorg Spenkuch, 2011, Good Samaritans,Rotten Parent Theorem,Old Age, and Investment in Human Capital: Some New Results, Manuscript,University of Chicago. 3. Becker,Gary and Nigel Tomes,1979, An Equilibrium Theory of the Distribution of Income and Intergeneration- al Mobility,Journal of Political Economy,87 ( 6 ),pp Behrman,Jere and Mark Rosenzweig,2002, Does Increasing Women's Schooling Raise the Schooling of the Next Generation?,American Economic Review,92( 1),pp Behrman,Jere and Paul Taubman,1985, Intergenerational Earnings Mobility in the United States: Some Esti- mates and a Test of Becker 's Intergenerational Endowments Model,Review of Economics and Statistics,67( 1),pp Bian,Yanjie,1997, Bringing Strong Ties Back in: Indirect Ties,Network Bridges,and Job Searches in China, American Sociological Review 62( 3),pp Bjorklund,Anders and Jantti Markus,1997, Intergenerational Income Mobility in Sweden Compared to the U- 1 需要注意的是, 年龄最小的队列样本 ( 生于 nited States,American Economic Review,Vol. 87,No. 1985) 在接受调查时可能还未完成教育, 因此其代际传递 ( Dec. 1997),pp 关系可能被低估这一问题与代际收入弹性的估算类 8. 蔡洪斌 : 中国经济转型与社会流动, 比较 2011 似年第 2 期 1 社会底层人群向上流动面临困难, 人民日报 9. 陈琳袁志刚 : 中国代际收入流动性的趋势与内 2010 年 9 月 16 日 2 杨瑞龙等 ( 2010) 对与政治身份相关的概念, 如社会资本政治关联政治网络等进行了梳理, 并发现父亲的政治身份 ( 是否党员 ) 对子女的收入有重要影响 3 我们得到的 CHIPS2007 数据没有个人层面的收入在传递机制, 世界经济 2012 年第 6 期 10. Chen,Yi and Frank Cowell,2013, Mobility in China,Paper presented at the Inaugural China Meeting of Econometric Society 2013,Beijing. 11. Chen,Yuyu and Hongbin Li,2009, Mother s Ed- 21

12 ucation and Child Health: Is There a Nurturing Effect?, Journal of Health Economics,28( 2),pp Chen,Yuyu,Suresh Naidu and Noam Yuchtman, 2010, Intergenerational Mobility and Institutional Change in 20the Century China,Manuscript,Harvard University. 13. Corak,Miles and Heisz Andrew,1998, The Intergenerational Earnings and Income Mobility of Canadian Men: Evidence from Longitudinal Income Tax Data, Statistics Canada Working Paper,No Currie,Janet and Enrico Moretti,2003, Mother's Education and the Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital: Evidence from College Openings,Quarterly Journal of Economics,118( 4),pp Deng,Quheng,Bjorn Gustafsson and Shi Li,2012, Intergenerational Income Persistency in Urban China,IZA Discussion Paper No Emran,M. Shahe and Forhad Shilpi,2011, Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Rural Economy: Evidence from Nepal and Vietnam,Journal of Human Resources,46( 2) : Golley,Jane and Kong Sherry Tao,2013, Inequality in Intergenerational Mobility of Education in China,China & World Economy,Vol. 21,No. 2,2013, Hellerstein, Judith and Morrill Melinda Sandler, 2011, Dads and Daughters: The Changing Impact of Fathers on Women s Occupational Choices,Journal of Human Resources,46( 2) : Hu,Yunzhi and Yang Yao,2011, To Become Homo Economics: The Communist Party s Embrace of China s Monopolistic Sectors,Manuscript,Peking University. 20. Khor,Niny and John Pencavel,2010, Evolution of Income Mobility in the People s Republic of China: ,Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper No Li,Hongbin,Pak Wai Liu,Junsen Zhang,and Ning Ma,2007, Economic Returns to Communist Party Membership: Evidence From Urban Chinese Twins,Economic Journal,117( 523). 22. Li,Hongbin,Mark Rosenzweig and Junsen Zhang, 2010, Altruism,Favoritism,and Guilt in the Allocation of Family Resources: Sophie s Choice in Mao s Mass Send - Down Movement,Journal of Political Economy,118 ( 1), pp 李宏彬张俊森 : 中国人力资本投资与回报, 北京大学出版社 2008 年版 24. 李煜 : 制度变迁与教育不平等的产生机制中国城市子女的教育获得 ( ), 中国社会科学 2006 年第 4 期 25. 李云森齐豪 : 中国农村教育的代际因果关系基于 1970 年代农村基础教育普及政策的研究, 世界经济文汇 2011 年第 4 期 26. Lucas,Robert and Kerr Sari Pekkala,2012, Intergenerational income immobility in Finland: contrasting roles for parental earnings and family income,journal of Population Economics. 27. Meng,Xin,Kailing Shen,and Sen Xue,2012, Economic Reform,Education Expansion,and Earnings Inequality for Urban Males in China, ,Journal of Comparative Economics. 28. Plug,Erik and Wim Vijverberg 2003, Schooling, Family Background,and Adoption: Is It Nature or Is It Nurture,Journal of Political Economy,111 ( 3),pp Solon,Gary,1989, Biased in Estimations of Intergenerational Earnings Correlations,Review of Economics and Statistics,71,pp Solon,Gary,1992, Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States,American Economic Review,82, pp Solon,Gary,1999, Intergenerational Mobility in the Labor Market,in Orley Ashenfelter and David Card eds.,handbook of Labor Economics,Vol. 3,Dutch: North - Holland. 32. 孙三百黄薇洪俊杰 : 劳动力自由迁移为何如此重要? 基于代际收入流动的视角, 经济研究 2012 年第 5 期 33. 王海港 : 中国居民收入分配的代际流动, 经济科学 2005 年第 2 期 34. 魏颖 : 中国代际收入流动与收入不平等问题研究, 中国财政经济出版社 2009 年版 35. 徐祥运刘杰 : 社会学概论, 东北财经大学出版社 2011 年 2 月第 3 版 36. Yang,Mayfair Mei - hui,1994,gifts,favors,and Banquets: The Art of Social Relationships in China,Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. 37. 杨瑞龙王宇锋刘和旺 : 父亲政治身份政治关系和子女收入, 经济学 ( 季刊 ) 2010 年 4 月, 第 9 卷第 3 期 38. 中国人民大学中国调查与数据中心 : 中国综合社会调查报告 ( ), 中国社会出版社 2009 年版 22

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