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1 Vol. 38 No. 6 November Population Research * Trends of Education Inequality in China A Cohort Perspective Wu Xiwei Abstract Using the data from the third wave survey of the Social Status of Women in China this study investigates the inequality of both educational outcome and educational opportunity and how they vary with cohorts. There are two main findings. First regardless of gender the degree of inequality of educational outcome increases with cohorts but the acceleration rate tends to decrease. This trend mainly results from the increase in both of the inequality of opportunity and the weight of importance which is due to the expansion of population at risk and the raised expected gain at the junior-to-senior high school transition. Second among all cohorts inequality of educational outcome for men is lower than for women because women experience higher inequality of opportunity at all transitions but the gender gap at every transition tends to vanish with cohort. The paper concludes with discussion of the methodological and substantive significance of this research. Keywords Inequality of Educational Opportunity Inequality of Educational Outcome Birth Cohort Author Wu Xiwei is Associate Professor Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China Beijing. wuxiwei@ ruc. edu. cn * 10@ ZH020

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3 78 38 Figure 1 1 Diagram of Sequential Decision on Education Transition Mare 1981 Mare 1981 Raftery & Hout 1993 Lucas Buis 2010 Robert Mare 1981 distribution of education Mare Robert Mare weighted sum Maarten L. Buis 2010 Buis Ryder 1965

4 logit Mare logit Maarten L. Buis 2010 logit sequential logit model logit 1 Buis 1 logit i 1 k i 2 exp α k + λ k SES i p ki = exp α k + λ k SES i λ k k α k k 1 SES λ k Mincer 1974 Xie & Hannum 1996 scaling logit E L logit 3 E L = 1 - p 1i l 0 + p 1i 1 - p 2i l 1 + p 1i p 2i 1 - p 3i l 2 + p 1i p 2i p 3i l 3 2 SES logit SES logit SES 2 SES k - 1 k 1 6 l 1 = 6 9 l 2 = 9 12 l 3 = l 4 = 16

5 80 38 E L SES = { 1 p p p 2 l 1 + p p 3 l 2 + p 2 p 3 l 3 - l } 0 λ 1 + { p 1 p p p 3 l 2 + p 3 l 3 - l } 1 λ 2 + { p 1 p 2 p p 3 l 3 - l } 2 λ p 1 p 1 p 2 2 p k 1 - p k p 2 l 1 + p p 3 l 2 + p 2 p 3 l 3 l 0 IEOut k IEOpps proportion at risk variance expected gain IEOut = K k = 1 weight k IEOpps k weight k = at risk k variance k gain k 4 IEOpps k weight k proportion of people at risk universality Maarten L. Buis 2010 logit 4 3

6 ~ logit / / n = Table 1 Descriptive Statistics of Selected Variables % % % ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a a. 0 6 = 5 /

7 % % 1949 ~ % 6 2 Table 2 2 Trends on Mean Number of Years of Schooling by Gender and Its Difference logit 4 IEOpps weights IEOut weights % 30% 4 1

6 83 Figure 2 2 1949 ~ 1992 Distribution of Highest Achieved Level of Education for Men over Birth

8 6 83 Figure ~ 1992 Distribution of Highest Achieved Level of Education for Men over Birth Cohorts Figure ~ 1992 Distribution of Highest Achieved Level of Education for Women over Birth Cohorts

9 84 38 Figure 4 4 Mean Number of Years of Schooling for Men and Women over Birth Cohorts ~ 64 logit IEOpps < < < > logit 5 1

10 logit Table 3 Parameter Estimates from Sequential Logit Model n = *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** *** *** n = *** *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** ** *** *** Log likelihood = Log likelihood = ** p < * p < p < Figure 5 5 logit Estimated Inequality of Educational Outcome according to the Sequential Logit Model

86 38 4 5 weight 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 8 6 7 3 6 7

11 weight Figure 6 Decomposition of IEOut into IEOpps and Weights for Men

6 87 7 Figure 7 Decomposition of IEOut into IEOpps

12 Figure 7 Decomposition of IEOut into IEOpps and Weights for Women % 50%

13 Figure 8 Decomposition of Weights into at Risk Variance and Expected Gain for Men 9 Figure 9 Decomposition of Weights into at Risk Variance and Expected Gain for Women

14 Maarten L. Buis ~ Hannum & Xie 1994 Lu & Treiman

15 90 38 /References Chen Binli Path Dependence in Educational Attainment. Peking University Education Review Ding Xiaohao Expansion and Equality in Chinese Higher Education. Peking University Education Review Li Chunling Socio-Political Changes and Inequality of EducationalOpportunity. Social Sciences in China Li Chunling Expansion of Higher Education and Inequality in Opportunity of Education A Study on Effect of Kuozhao Policy on Equalization of Educational Attainment. Sociological Studies Li Yu Institutional Change and Educational Inequality Mechanism in Educational Stratification in Urban China Social Sciences in China ~ Liu Jingming Expansion of Higher Education in China and Inequality in Entrance Opportunities Society Yang Dongping From Equality of Right to Equality of Opportunity the Trajectory of Educational Equity in New China. Peking University Education Review Ye Hua and Wu Xiaogang Fertility Decline and the Trend in Educational Gender Inequality inchina. Sociological Studies Ong Wenyan Multidimensional Analysis of Educational Equity. Exploring Educational Development Zhu Yongdong and Ye Yujia Study on Educational Equity in China since China Higher Education Buis M. L Inequality of Educational Outcomes and Inequality of Educational Opportunities in the Netherlands during the 20 th Century. Available from http / /home. fsw. vu. nl /hbg. ganzeboom /Pdf /2010-buis-dissertation. pdf. 12 Hannum Emily and Yu Xie Trends in Educational Gender Inequality in China Research in Social Stratification and Mobility Hout Michael and Thomas A. DiPrete What We Have Learned RC 28 s Contributions to Knowledge about Social Stratification. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility Lu Yao and Donald J. Treiman The Effect of Sibship Size on Educational Attainment in China Period Variation.

16 6 91 American Sociological Review Lucas R. Samuel Effectively Maintained Inequality Education Transitions Track Mobility and Social Background Effects. The American Journal of Sociology Mare Robert D Social Background and School Continuation Decisions. Journal of the American Statistical Association Mare Robert D Change and Stability in Educational Stratification. American Sociological Review Mincer J Schooling Experience and Earnings. New York Columbia University Press. 19 Ryder Norman B The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change. American Sociological Review Yu Xie and Emily Hannum Regional Variation in Earnings Inequality in Reform-Era Urban China. American Journal of Sociology

标题

2016 年第 3 期 ( 总第 216 期 ) 人口与经济 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 3, 2016 ( Tot. No. 216) 同胞数量与教育获得的性别差异黎煦, 刘华 ( 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院, 北京 100070) 摘要 : 同胞数量对教育获得的影响存在