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1 Economic Issues in China Mar No 本文使用年中国城镇住户调查数据, 从教育回报率和就业率两个角度, 分析了高校扩招后劳动力市场的变化实证结果表明 : 扩招后城镇劳动者教育回报率仍保持增长, 并且高等教育的回报率显著高于非高等教育的回报率, 高等教育仍是一种有效率的人力资本投资 ; 在控制了宏观经济对就业的影响后, 大学生劳动者供给的增加仍有利于大学生和非大学生就业率的提升, 这表明高校扩招带来的人力资本提高对就业有着促进作用高校扩招 ; 劳动力市场 ; 教育回报率 ; 就业率一引言 % % % 1 15% 22% 23% GDP 15% % 3

2 19% 28% 39% 25% 1 http/ /www. moe. edu. cn 2 GDP 2008 http/ /data. worldbank. org

3 二文献综述 / % Zhang et al % 17. 8% U % % 56% % % % 5. 11% 三数据和变量 Urban Household Survey 5

4 CPI % 9. 7% = =

5 % % % 四实证模型和结果分析 1. Zhang et al LnW i = β 0 + β sch Sch i + β 1 Exp i + β 2 Exp 2 i + β 3 Female i + β 4 Region i + ε i 1 LnW i = β 0 + β col Col i + β 1 Exp i + β 2 Exp 2 i + β 3 Female i + β 4 Region i + μ i 2 1 Sch i i β sch 2 Col i i 1 0 β col LnW i i 1 Exp i Exp 2 i i Female i Region i A B % % % 1. 0% 1 CPI

6 A B % % %

7 3. 9% % % % 2. 0% % 35. 4% % 6. 3% E_col c t = β 0 + β 1 Col_share c t + β 2 Z c t + β 3 year t + ε k 3 E_non c t = β 0 + β 1 Col_share c t + β 2 Z c t + β 3 year t + ε k 4 3 4E_col c t E_non c t c t Col_share c t k Z c t GDP 2 year t *** *** *** *** GDP *** ** *** *** *** *** GDP *** * *** *** *** *** * ***** 10% 5% 1% t GDP 1990 GDP 9

8 1 1% % % % % GDP Moretti2004 1% 0. 6% ~ 0. 7% % % GDP > > GDP GDP 1% % % 五结论 1 10

9 1 MorettiE Workers' educationspilloversand productivityevidence from plant-level production functions J. American Economic Review Zhang JZhao YPark Aet al Economic returns to schooling in urban China1988 to 2001 J. Journal of Comparative Economics J J J J J J J J J J J J Changes in Economic Return to Schooling and Employment Rate with the Expansion of Higher Education Yao XianguoFang XinZhang Haifeng Zhejiang UniversityHang zhou AbstractFrom the aspect of economic return to schooling and employment rate this article tries to analyze changes in labor market with the expansion of higher educationusing data from the Urban Household Survey from 1998 to The empirical results suggesteconomic return to schooling in urban china keeps its increasing stateand economic return to college is significantly higher than education below college thus higher education still remains an efficient human capital investmentmoreover increased labor supply of higher education is still helpful to employment rates of college labor and non-college labor controlling the impact of higher education on employment indicates that the improvement of human capital with the expansion of higher education has promoted employment. Key wordsexpansion of higher educationlabor marketeconomic return to educationemployment rate 责任编辑 : 靳涛 11

Keywords higher education expansion college graduates treatment effect Difference in Difference Method % % 2 GD

Keywords higher education expansion college graduates treatment effect Difference in Difference Method % % 2 GD 2014 1 202 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 1 2014 Tot. No. 202 人力资源开发与就业姚先国, 方昕, 钱雪亚 310027 : 基于控制 - 干预的思想, 文章使用 1998 ~ 2009 年中国城镇住户调查数据, 通过双差分模型和三次差分模型, 分析了高校扩招政策对大学毕业生工资的干预效应研究结果表明 : 在大学毕业生群体中, 受到扩招影响的新毕业生遭受了一定程度的工资损失