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1 中银国际固定收益研究 中银国际固定收益研究 中银国际固定收益研究 BOCI 利率 汇率 信用 Rates, Currencies & Credits 中国企业信用研究 China Corporate Credit Research 王卫 (Steve Wang) + (852) steve.wang@bocigroup.com 吴琼 (Qiong Wu), CFA +(852) qiong.wu@bocigroup.com 张威 (Vivian Zhang) +(86) vivian.zhang@bocigroup.com 刘溪 (Lucy Liu) +(86) xi.liu@bocigroup.com 中联重科 - 中国工程机械的龙头企业 Zoomlion - A leading Chinese construction machinery manufacturer 中联重科首次发行的 5 年期优先级美元债券 ( 标普评为 BB+ 惠誉为 BBB-) 是工程机械行业板块中具有较高相对价值的中国名字 / Zoomlion s inaugural 5-year senior USD bond, rated at BB+ and BBB - by S&P and Fitch, respectively, offers an attractive relative value from the Chinese construction mach i- nery sector. 此债券的交易价与全球同业中一个 B 评级的名字, 如 Terex, 相若, 而远远低于三个 B 评级的全球同业, 如 Joy Global / The bond trades close to its single -B rated global peers, such as Terex, and substantially lower than triple -B rated p eers, su ch as Joy Global. 不过, 其估值水平与其它中国可比的企业名字估值基本一致, 比如龙工 中信泰富 这继续延伸了中国名字的信用估值低于全球信用市场整体水平的历史惯例 / However, the bond valuation level is largely inline with those of oth er comparable Chinese industry credits, such as Lonkin g and Citic Pacific, continuing the legacy of valuation concession s priced into Chinese credits as comparing t o the overall glob al credit market. 中联重科是一家中国工程机械制造的龙头企业, 生产多种类产品, 其中包括混凝土机械 起重机械 环卫机械和筑路机械等 / Zoomlion is a leading Chinese construction m ach in ery manufacturer, offering a wide range of product mix in clud ing concrete m achinery, crane machinery, sanitation machin ery, road construction machinery, etc. 公司财务数据坚实, 如负债率低 流动性强 还本付息容量大 ; 但由于大幅经营扩张和高位融资租赁销售, 现金流持续负值运行 / The company boasts a solid financial profile with low leverage, strong liquidity and high debt servicing capacity, despite of negative cash flows due to aggressive op e ration expansions and high volume of finance lease s. 由厂商或厂商担保的融资性销售 / 租赁带来的应收账款和信贷风险增加仍是一关键的信用弱点 目前中国房地产市场的低迷和中国经济的放缓可能将继续对公司的财务数据带来压力 其海外的扩张战略也可能导致更多的执行风险 / Increased receivables and credit risk from vendor or vendor-guaranteed finance sales/leases remain a key credit concern, as the current downturn of Chinese real estate market and slowdown of Chinese economy could continu e to pressure its financials. Its overseas expansion strategy may also result in more exec ution risks. 此报告仅代表该研究员个人观点, 并不代表中银国际及其联营公司的观点 1 This report only represents analysts personal viewpoints, which don t necessarily represent those of BOCI Group and any of its affiliated entities.

2 Zoomlion s inaugural senior US dollar bonds Zoomlion Heavy Ind u stry Scien ce and Technology Co. Ltd. ( Zoo mlion or th e Company ) is a leading Chin ese manufactu rer of con stru c- tion machinery. Th e Company is l isted on the Sh enzhen Stock E xch an ge in Ch ina and on the HK Stock Exch ange. It man ufactu res a wide range of machin ery prod ucts including concrete machinery, cran e machin ery, san itation m a- chinery, road con stru ction machin ery, etc revenue amoun ted to RMB bn and sales from concrete and cran e machiner ies contributed abou t 80% of the total sales (see Fig. 1). The govern ment of Hun an Province, through its state-asset agen cy SASAC, is the largest sharehold er of Zoomlion with a 16.19% of interest as of th e en d of Th e Comp a- ny s management holds a 8.13% stake. Zoomlion priced its inaugural $400 million US dollar senior bon d on March 28 th is year. The five-year bond carries a 6.875% coupon and was priced at a 7% issu ing yield, and is rated at BB+ by S&P and BBB - b y Fitch. Th e bond has a clean guarantee stru ctu re, as th e central SAFE approved its onshore guar antee for offshore debt. The bond has b een trad ing relatively st able on the secondary market since d ebut, in a range of 6.975%-7.425% bid. The b ond was in itially trading soft righ t after debut on th e backdrop of a soften ed global cred it market, but has since rebounded qu ickly. Th e bond is currently quoted at / (bid /ask), yielding 7.1%/6.875%. We view the Zoomlion b ond as a good relative valu e. Bond relative value We compare Zoomlion both with its global peers in the mach in ery sector and with similarly rated China/HK corporate n ames (see Fig. 2). The bonds in d iscu ssion are in th e 4-6 year maturity area but in a wid e rating range. Of these comparison s, the h ighest -rated Caterpillar (A/A2) offers a low yield of 1.9%, while the lo west-rated Manitowoc (B+/B3) offers a yield of 7.0%. Zoomlion is rated at BBB- by Fitch and BB+ by S&P (not rated by Moody s), both of which are mu ch high er th an th e ratings of TEREX (B 2/BB-) and MANITOWOC (B3/B+), yet Zoomlion offers a yield close to th at of these two lower-rated US p eers. 中联重科首发优先级美元债 中联重工科技发展股份有限公司 ( 简称 中联重工 或 公司 ) 是中国工程机械制造行业的龙头企业, 在深圳证券交易所和香港联交所上市, 主要从事混 凝土机械 起重机械 环卫机械 公路机械等机械 产品的生产 2011 年公司营业收入达 亿 其中 80% 左右的收入来源于混凝土机械和起重机 械 ( 见图 1) 截至 2011 年 12 月 31 日, 湖南省国 资委持有公司 16.19% 股份, 是公司最大的股东 管理层持有 8.13% 的股份 图 1: 公司 2011 年收入的产品组成 / Fig. 1: 2011 revenue composition by products RMB mm % 混凝土机械 /Concrete machinery 21, 起重机械 /Crane machinery 15, 环卫机械 /Environmental & sanitation machinery 2, 路面机械 /Road machinery 1, 土方机械 /Earth working machinery 1, 物料输送机械及系统 /Material handing machinery & systems 其它产品 /Other products 1, 融资租赁服务 /Finance lease services 1, 总计 /Total 46, 数据来源 : 公司报表, 中银国际 / S o u r c e s : Company r e p o r t s, B O CI 中联重科于今年 3 月 28 日首次发行共 4 亿美元 5 年期优先级债券, 票息为 6.875%, 发行时收益率 为 7%, 标普给与 BB+ 评级, 惠誉的评级为 BBB- 该债券属于外管局批准的境内公司担保 境外企业 发行的案例, 发行担保结构清晰 此债券发行后在二级市场的交易整体表现平稳, 变 动区间 6.975%-7.425% 发行后初期由于全球信用 市场的整体走软而下跌, 之后很快反弹 目前市场 报价为 99.25/100.00( 买入价 / 卖出价 ), 收益率为 7.1%/6.875% 我们认为此中联重科债券具有较好 的相对价值 相对价值分析 我们将中联重科债与国际上工程机械行业中的债 券和评级类同的中国 / 香港名字的企业债相比较 2

3 When comparing with similarly rated global industry peers, su ch as US-based Joy Global (Ba1/BB), which yield s at 2. 5%, and Netherland -based CNH (Ba1/BB), at 4. 9%, Zoomlion s relative value is far ah ead of both. Lonking, a much smaller indu stry p eer of Zoomlion from Chin a, also provid es a refe rence point. Lonking s 4.2% 2016 bond (BB3/BB-) is currently yielding at 10.7%, which is 3.6% more than the BB+/BBB - rated Zoomlion bond and similarly rated TERE X (B2/BB-). From ou r rough estimat ed Chinese US dollar corp orate bond curve, we find the yield differen ce b etween BBrated and BB+ rated 5-year high -yield bonds is about 2.8%. By this gross measure, Zoomlion and Lonking are priced at comparab le levels, if we only consider Zoomlion s BB+ ratin g from S&P. When consid erin g th e in vestment -grade rating of BBB- from Fitch, we find th e Zoomlion bond even more attractive. N everth eless, in both the Zoomlion an d Lonking cases, th ey are priced at deep discoun ts to th eir US and Europ ean counterp arts, continuin g th e legacy that Chinese corporate bonds, particularly the HY ones, are priced at sub stantial concessions to the overall glob al credit ma rket. We can also compare Zoomlion (--/BB+/BBB-) with recently issu ed CITIC Pacific 5.8% 2018 issu e, also a Chin ese credit with similar rating (Ba1/--/--) but from a d ifferent indu stry sector. Both issuers have state -own ership background, but CITIC Pacific is a steel and iron ore producer. The CITIC Pacific b ond h as a slightly longer maturity and is cu rrently yield ing at 6.9%, slightly lower than th e 7.1% of Zoo mlion. ( 见图 2) 被用来比较的债券都在 4-6 年期限左右, 但它们的信用评级跨越区间较大 其中评级最高的美国卡特彼勒公司 (A/A2) 的收益率最低, 为 1.9%, 评级最低的美国 MANITOWOC 公司 (B+/B3) 的收益率为 7.0% 虽然中联重工被惠誉评为 BBB-, 被标普评为 BB+( 穆迪未发表评级 ), 均远远高于美国 TEREX 的 B2/BB-( 穆迪 / 标普 ) 评级和 MANITOWOC 的 B3/B+ 评级, 其收益率与两者相若 相比评级比较接近的同业债券, 如 Baa2/BBB 评级的美国 Joy Global 公司债 2.5% 的收益率和评级 Ba1/BB 的荷兰 CNH 公司债 4.9% 的收益率, 中联重工债的性价比则远超两者 龙工控股是中联重科的国内同业, 但其规模远小于中联重工 龙工 4.2% 票息 2016 到期债的评级为 BB3/BB-, 收益率为 10.7%, 比 BB+/BBB- 评级的中联重科和评级相近的 TEREX(B2/BB-) 债的收益率高 3.6% 基于我们对中国名字的美元企业债信用曲线的粗略估算, BB- 评级的 5 年期高收益债相对 BB+ 评级债的收益率差异大约为 2.8% 按此估算, 如果我们仅考虑标普给予中联重科债的 BB+ 评级, 其与龙工债的收益率差基本相若 但如果考虑惠誉给予中联重科债的 BBB- 的投资级评级, 中联重科债则更加吸引人 但是, 就中联 图 2: 债券的相对价值比较 / Fig. 2: Bond relative-value comparisons 债券 Bond 评级 Ratings 年限 Years to maturity 买入价 Bid-PX 买入收益率 Bid-YTM 国家 Country 行业 Industry ZOOMLION /BB+/BBB % 中国 /China 机械 /Machinery CATERPILLAR A2/A/A % 美国 /US 机械 /Machinery JOY GLOBAL INC 6 16 Baa2/BBB/ % 美国 /US 机械 /Machinery CASE NEW HOLLAND Ba2/BB/ % 荷兰 /Netherland 机械 /Machinery TEREX B2/BB-/ % 美国 /US 机械 /Machinery MANITOWOC B3/B+/ % 美国 /US 机械 /Machinery LONKING Ba3/BB/ % 中国 /China 机械 /Machinery CITIC PACIFIC Ba1/--/ % 中国 /China 钢铁 /Steel 数据来源 : 彭博, 中银国际 / S ou r c e s : B loomberg, B O CI 3

4 Fundamental analysis A leading Chinese construction machinery manufacturer Zoomlion is a sector leader in Chin a s constru c- tion machinery indu stry. Accordin g to China Con struction Machinery Indu stry Assoc iation (CCMA), Zoomlion is China's second largest and the world's eighth-largest manu facturer in construction machin ery. Its tower cran es and san i- tation machin ery were rank ed first in the d o- mestic market by sales volu me for 2010, while its concrete pumps, concrete pu mp truck s and truck cranes were ranked second. Solid f inancial profile Profitability was stron g. In 2011, gross margin was at 32.4% and E BITDA margin at 21.7% (see Fig.3). Its EBITDA interest cov erage and debt/ebitda were 19.6X and 1.3X, resp ectively, indicating the Comp an y s strong debt service capa city that is comp arab le to some of the global leading m ach in ery manu factu rers such as Caterpillar. In 2011, FFO (fund s from op erations) was RMB 9.04bn, of which RMB7.64 was used for higher working capital from RMB9.4bn of increases in trade receivables and finan ce lease s. With a capex of RMB158mm, th e free op eration cash flow (FOCF) came out as a RMB 180mm deficit. Apparen tly, th e sign ificantly in creased trade receivables and finan ce lease s h ave consu med up a majority of th e cash flow from operations, leaving th e Comp any in a continuing dilemma of strong p rofitab ility with n egative FOCF over the past three years. Th e Company s capital structure was h ealthy and liqu idity was ad equ ate, but its fast expansion pressures the finan cials. Zoomlion has su fficient cash and adequate liq uidity after rais ing RMB 5.5bn from A -share private p lacement in Sh enzhen, China in Feb and RMB 10.8bn from H-share IPO in Hong Kon g in Oct Cap ital structure was h e althy as equ ity raisings and retained earnin gs boosted its equity base. As of Dec. 31, 2011, E qu ity/debt&e quity ratio was at a high level of 73%, and cash on hand was at 16bn, more than its total d ebt of RMB13.1bn (n et cash). However, given th e capital intensive nature of the busin ess, the continuin g exp an sion of domestic operation s and overseas business development, th e Company s leverage and l i- quidity could face increasing pressures. 重科债和龙工债而言, 它们均较其美国和欧洲的同类债券有所折让, 延续了中国企业债 特别是高收益债, 相对全球信用市场有大幅度的价格折让的情况 我们也可以将中联重科债 (--/BB+/BBB-) 与评级类同 但行业不同的中国企业中信泰富新发的 5.8% 票息 2018 年到期债 ( 评级为 Ba1/--/--) 相比较 两者均有国资背景, 但中信泰富的行业为钢铁和铁矿石生产 中信泰富债期限稍长, 目前收益率为 6.9%, 低于中联重科债的 7.1% 的收益率 信用基本面分析中国工程机械的龙头企业中联重科在国内工程机械行业中为龙头企业 据中国工程机械行业协会 (CCMA), 中联重科是中国第二大和世界第八大工程机械制造企业 以 2010 销售计, 塔式起重机和环卫机械市场份额第一 ; 混凝土泵 混凝土泵车以及汽车起重机居行业第二位 财务数据坚实盈利能力较强 在 2011 年, 毛利率为 32.4%, EBITDA 利润率为 21.7%( 见图 3) EBITDA 利息覆盖倍数为 19.6 倍, 债务 /EBITDA 倍数为 1.3 倍, 显示公司较强的债务偿还能力, 可与全球机械行业的龙头企业如卡特彼勒公司 (A/A2) 的指标相比 在 2011 年度, 营运现金 FFO 达 90.4 亿元, 但因应收账款和融资租赁增长了 94 亿元, 带来营运资本的增加而消耗了公司 76.4 亿元的现金流 在资本项开支 15.8 亿元后, 公司最终的自由现金流为负 1.8 亿元 显然, 大幅上升的应收账款和融资租赁 吃掉 了大部分的营运现金, 使公司最近三年持续处于 盈利强, 自由经营现金流为负 的尴尬局面 公司的资本结构健康, 流动性充足, 但其迅速扩张的战略令其财务受压 通过 2010 年在中国深圳 A 股私募集资 55 亿元人民币, 以及 2010 年 10 月在香港 H 股首次上市融资 108 亿元人民币 4

5 Increased receivables and credit risk from finance sales/leases One of the industry wid e p ractices in construction machinery is th e relatively h igh p erce ntage of usage of vend or or vendor-guaranteed fin ance sales/leasing in the total sales. Zoo mlion offers four payment op tion s to its customers to promote sales: fu ll cash p ayment, in stall ed payments, compan y-gu aranteed bank finance and vendor finan ce lease. In 2011, sales by the fou r payment op tions accounted for 29.4%, 19.8%, 16.0%, and 34.8% of th e total p roduct sales revenue, resp ectively. As of Dec. 31, 2011, outstanding of trade receivab le s and financ e lease receivables were RMB 11.6bn and RMB 19.9bn, r espectively, for a total of RMB 31.5bn or 70% of the 2011 total produ ct sales, as co m- paring to the RMB 23.2bn total or 74 % share for The 36% YoY increase of total recei vables is largely inlin e with th e 44% YoY growth of total product sales (from RMB 31.2bn to 44.7bn ). Th e traditional vendor or vend or -guaranteed fin ance sales/leasing practice exposes the Company to risin g cred it risk during economic slowdown or downturn. Th e Company witnessed a rapid rise in overdu e lease receivable s since For the years of 2009, 2010 and 2011, overdue lease receivab les were 1%, 2.4% and 2.1% of the total outstandin g lease amount, resp ective ly. For the vendor-guaranteed bank fin ancing program, th e Compan y had a total guarantee e xposu re of RMB 9.1b n as at the end of 2011 and paid banks a total of RMB 190mm on client defaults during 2011 or 2.5% of averaged total guarantee exposure s of 2010 and Th e cyclic nature of th e c on stru cti on machinery industry remains a key risk factor in today s macroeconomic en vironment. As China mai n- tain s a high pressu red tigh tenin g policy on the real estate market and the Chin ese economy is currently experien cin g a slowd own, th e construction machin ery industry is exp ected to continue facin g a cloud ed ou tlook and may see increased rates of write -offs and payment overdues from its in stallment sales, b ank f i- nanced sales and finan ce leases. 后, 公司目前现金和流动性较为充沛 资本结构在股权融资和自身利润转增资本后比较健康 在 2011 年, 权益 / 债务和权益的比例为 73%, 截至 2011 年 12 月 31 日, 现金余额为 160 亿元, 甚至超过了其总债务 131 亿元 但鉴于工程机械行业是资本密集型行业, 扩大经营规模对资金需求较大, 以及公司海外扩张的战略, 可能使其杠杆率上升, 流动性方面增压 融资租赁 / 销售的应收款项及信用风险上升工程机械行业的一个习惯做法就是通过公司自身或公司担保实现的融资租赁 / 销售占总销售的比例较高 中联重科在向客户销售产品时提供四种支付方式, 即全额付款 分期付款 公司担保下的银行贷款和融资租赁 在 2011 年, 上述四种营销方式占销售收入的比例分别为 29.4% 19.8% 16.0% 34.8% 截至 2011 年 12 月 31 日, 销售的应收账款余额和融资租赁的应收账款余额分别为 116 亿和 199 亿人民币, 合计 315 亿元, 相当于 2011 总产品销售额的 70% 相比之下,2010 年的应收账款余额合计 232 亿元, 相当于 2010 总产品销售额的 74% 2011 年总体应收账款余额的 36% 年增长与总产品销售收入 44% 的年增长基本一致 ( 从 312 亿元上升至 447 亿元 ) 传统的企业自身或企业担保的信用租赁销售方式使公司在中国经济放缓或下滑时面临呆坏账增加的信用风险 2010 年以来, 公司经历过逾期租赁应收款显著上升的情况 在 和 2011 年, 逾期的融资租赁应收款占当期融资租赁总价款的比例分别 1% 2.4% 和 2.1% 对于公司提供担保的银行贷款销售部分, 公司在 2011 年底的担保敞口为 91 亿元, 2011 年中因客户违约而向银行支付了 1.9 亿元, 占 2010 年和 2011 年平均的总体担保敞口的 2.5% 在今天的宏观经济大环境下, 工程机械行业的周期性仍然是一关键风险点 由于中国继续对房地产市场保持高压紧缩政策, 以及中国经济目前正经历放缓的局面, 工程机械行业的前景仍不尽乐观 在分期付款 银行融资销售和融资租赁方面坏滞帐的比率有可能进一步上升 5

6 图 3: 中联重科财务摘要 / Fig.3: Zoomlion s financial highlights 百万人民币 / RMB mm 年度 /Annual 年度 /Annual 年度 /Annual 收入 /Income statement 收入 / Revenue 46,323 32,193 20,762 折旧和摊销 / Depreciation and amortization EBITDA 10,044 6,128 3,557 利息支出 / Interest incurred 毛利 / Gross profit 15,007 9,769 5,340 净利润 / Net income 8,173 4,588 2,419 盈利 / Earnings protection 毛利率 / Gross Margin (%) EBITDA 利润率 / EBITDA /Revenue (%) EBITDA 利息覆盖倍数 / EBITDA interest coverage (x) 总体债务 /EBITDA 倍数 / Debt/EBITDA (x) 净债务 /EBITDA 倍数 / Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (0.3) Net cash 3.0 资产负债表 / Balance sheet 现金 / Cash and equivalents 16,002 18,758 3,439 资产总额 / Total assets 71,543 63,042 33,875 短期债务 / Short-term debt 6,049 8,107 8,553 长期债务 / Long-term debt 7,089 7,690 5,621 权益 / Equity 35,595 27,435 7,552 债务和权益 / Debt & equity 48,733 43,232 21,726 资产负债比例 / Balance-sheet-ratios 权益 / 债务和权益 / Equity/debt & equity (%) 总债务 / 债务和权益 / Total debt/debt & equity (%) 净债务 / 净债务和权益 / Net debt/ Debt & equity (%) (8.8) Net cash 58.7 现金流 / Cash flow 营运现金 / Funds from operations (FFO) 9,042 5,343 2,856 营运资本变动 / Working capital change (*) 7,643 5,533 4,686 资本支出 / Capital expenditure 1,582 1,166 1,056 自由经营现金流 / Free operating cash flow (183) (1,356) (2,886) 现金充足率 / Cash flow adequacy 营运现金 / 总债务 / Funds from operations/total debt (%) 营运现金 / 净债务 / Funds from operations/net debt (%) (315.7) Net cash 26.6 数据来源 : 公司报表, 中银国际 /Sources: Company reports, BOCI 注 :* 正数表示营运资本上涨, 即使用现金, 而负数表示营运资本减少, 即释放现 金 /Note: * A positive number denotes an increase in working capital investment which is a use of cash, and a negative number denotes a decrease in working capital investment which is a release of cash. 6

7 DISCLOSURE The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analysts. Each analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analysts, BOCI Research Limited and BOCI Group. Member companies of BOCI Group confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) do not own 1% or more financial interests in any of the listed corporations reviewed; (ii) are not involved in making a market in the securities reviewed; (iii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any member companies of BOCI Group serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; and (iv) do have investment banking relationship with Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co Ltd within the preceding 12 months. This disclosure statement is made pursuant to paragraph 16 of the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission and is updated as of 18 April Waiver has been obtained by BOC International Holdings Limited from the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong to disclose any interest the Bank of China Group may have in this research report. 7

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