國立中山大學學位論文典藏.PDF

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1 Development of China s P e t r o c h e m i c a l Industry and Role of Transnational P e t r o c h e m i c a l Corporations.

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5 (1) ( ) (2) WTO ( T R I M S ) (TRIPS (3) (4) i

6 The main purpose of this study confers development of China s p e t r o c h e m i c a l industry and role of transnational p e t r o c h e m i c a l corporation.(1) It is found out that current industry gathers in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong through production of related petrochemical products. To contrast with the China government to open up ethylene joint ventures (JV) of four foreign corporations, a key issue has been derivated. Why the government broke situation of m o n o p o l i z a t i o n of original two domestic petrochemical groups of Sinopec and CNPC as well as open up the best position of the industry being gathered to four? (2) During p a r t i c i p a t i o n of WTO, the situation of promise and practice has been analyzed. It is discovered that serious problem are existed; especially, regarding to TRIMS and TRIPS. Does it an administrative delay or consideration of involved development strategy?(3) The development s t r a t e g y of the China government has been proved and the process of ethylene production capability has been compared. The average of ethylene production capability is ranked the last among Asian countries before JV. Extensive production technology has been brought in afterward as well as after related technology and knowledge being obtained; mass ethylene production capability will be invested domestically by S i n o p e c a n d C N P C in the future.(4) Therefore, it is induced that a strategy can be adapted for those technology falls behind countries. Opening and developing market attracts foreign countries and actively learns their advanced t e c h n o l o g y in another. K e y w o r ii

7 ......i...ii...iii...v v i i i WTO i i i

8 iv

9 OPEC v

10 ( P P ) (P P ) C N P CSinopec v i

11 ABS L D P EL L D P E H D P E P O M PC GDP ( ) WTO WTO ( C N P C ) ( S I N O P E C ) vii

12 WTO P E P E P P P P P S P S PVC PVC ABS...92 v i i i

13 ABS L D P EL L D P E L D P EL L D P E H D P E H D P E P O M P O M P C P C SINOPEC i x

14 x

15 WTO WTO WTO? WTO WTO WTO? (1) ( 2 ) (3)

16 1 ( Richard M. Auty 1992 < Industrial Policy Reform in China: Structural and Regional Imbalances > 90 ( R o b e r t M. S o l o w 1957 < Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function > GNP 87.5% 12.5% 4 S i m o n K u z n e t s 1966 < Modern Economic GrowthRate, Structre, and Spread > Robert M. Solow, T e c h n i c a l C h a n g e a n d t h e A g g r e g a t e P r o d u c t i o n F u n c t i o n, Review of Economics and Statistics, v o l. 3 9, i s s u e 3 (

17 5 ((wild- geese- flying pattern) ( K a n a m e A k a m a t s u The Developing Economies ( ( h e t e r o g e n i z a t i o n ( ) ( h o m o g e n i z a t i o n ( (high- degree hete rorogenization) ( 5 S i m o n K u z n e t s,modern Economic GrowthRate, Structre, and Spread (New HavenY a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s, 1966),81. 6 K a n a m e A k a m a t s u, A h i s t o r i c a l p a t t e r n o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s, The Developing Economies, p r e l i m i n a r y i s s u e (1962):

18 7 C h r i s t i a n S c h r ö p p e l a n d M a r i k o N a k a j i m a, T h e C h a n g i n g I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e F l y i n g. G e e s e M o d e l o f E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t., Japanstudien,v o l. 1 4 ( ) :

19 7 < > Shell Shell C N O O C ( ) Shell () E I U 8 I b i d., ( M e h m e t Ö g ü t ç ü, F o r e i g n D i r e c t I n v e s t m e n t a n d I m p o r t a n c e o f t h e G o W e s t S t r a t e g y i n C h i n a s E n e r g y S e c t o r, in OECD: Foreign Direct Investment in China: Callenges and Prospects for Regional Development,M a r c h,

20 1997 < 1. a. (Mansanto) ( H e r c u l e s ) b. ( U n i o n C a r b i d e ) (Eastman) (Shell) c ( ) T h e E c o n o m i s t I n t e l l i g e n c e U n i t,multinational companies in China:Winners and losers ( L o n d o n : T h e E c o n o m i s t I n t e l l i g e n c e U n i t L i m i t e d, ),

21 (Bayer) 10% ( R h o n e P o u l e n c ) () h t t p : / / b i g 5. m o f c o m. g o v. c n / a a r t i c l e / b / g / / h t m l 7

22 < > ( )

23 WTO TRIPsT R I M s ( (Oxford Economics and The Signal Group ) (The China Business Forum) 2005Report to Congress on China s WTO Compliance> ( O x f o r d E c o n o m i c s a n d T h e S i g n a l G r o u p. T h e C h i n a E f f e c t : A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t o n t h e U S E c o n o m y o f T r a d e a n d I n v e s t m e n t w i t h C h i n a, T h e C h i n a B u s i n e s s F o r u m, J a n u a r y, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r,

24 < > < > () 2001 (Fortun) 500 (Fortune Global 500) < 500 > 1 7 (Fortune) 500 < ( ) 1 8 ( ) ( ) h t t p : / / r e s o u r c e. e m a g e c o m p a n y. c o m / b i g 5 / c h e m i s t r y / h u a g o n g z h i z h a o. h t m < > ( ) 10

25 (Petrochemical) (Concept) ( D o w c h e m i c a l ( 3) D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c..petrochemical Industry in China J a p a n : D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c., WTO ( )

26 H. Peter GrayIngo Walter 1985 ( 4 ) 1 2 ( ) (SM) ( V C M ) ( E G ) (PTA) ( A N )( C P L 3. (PE) (PP) ( P V C ) (PS) - - (ABS) (Dunning) (FDI D u n n i n g J o h n H., Multinational enterprises and the global economy ( E n g l a n da d d i s o n -W e s l e y P u b l i s h i n g c o m p a n y1992), 6. 12

27 ABS ABS 13

28 < 500 > < >< > < > 14

29 ( 34% 68% 15

30 16 WTO WTO WTO

31 WTO 17

32 Ch.6 Ch.6 Ch.5 Ch

33 ( ) ( ) WTO 10% (1) P E P SPVC 2 4 ( 5) 2 4 : ( ) ( )

34 ( 6) ( /2004 ( ) %(2-2- 1) ( ) 9.5% 7 % 2003 L D P E H D P ESMEG PVC 1540 ( ) % % 8.5% 2% ( ) I a n Y o u n g, R i d i n g A s i a ' s I n d u s t r y U p c y c l e, Chemical Week (New York ), v o l , I s s u e. 1 3 ( A p r i l 2 0, ) :

35 % % 8% 7.5% 8.3% 9.3% 8.04% 2004 ( ( ) ( ) 3 ( ) ( ) % P e c k H w e e S i m a n d R o b e r t W e s t e r v e l t, P e t r o c h e m i c a l s, Chemical Week (New York ), vol.166, I s s u e. 1 1 ( M a r c h 3 1, ) : R o b e r t W e s t e r v e l t a n d P e c k H w e e S i m, R e c o v e r y L i f t s M o o d a n d A t t e n d a n c e a t N P R A, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 1 2 ( A p r i l 6, ) : 9.I b i d., K e r r i W a l s h, S F O o f t h e Y e a r : R e t i r e d G e o r g i a G u l f C F O O f f e r s F u l l D i s c l o s u r e, Chemical Week (New Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 1 6 ( M a y 1 2, ) : 2 2. L y n T a t t u m, R e c o v e r y i s I n t h e A i r, Chemical Week (New York ), v o l , I s s u e. 1 4 ( A p r i l 2 8, ) : 4 1. P e c k H w e e S i m a n d R o b e r t W e s t e r v e l t, P e t r o c h e m i c a l s,21. 21

36 G l o b a l F i n a n c i a l D a t a b a s 22

37 ( ASEAN % 5.2% 0.5% 3.7% 13.2% 1.7% 8.9% - 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 17.4%

38 ( ) % D a v i d H u n t e r, T i e d t o C h i n a, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 2 7 ( A u g u s t 1 8, ) : 3. N a t a s h a Alperowic z,, C h i n a B u i l d s U p C o n t r a c t o r s ' H o p e s, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 2 1 ( J u n e 2 3, ) : 2 3. A n d r e w W o o d a n d a n d A r n o l d P e a r l m a n, S h e l l P u t s D o w n R o o t s i n C h i n a, Chemical Week (New Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 1 8 ( M a y 2 6, ) : 3 9. Ian Young, A Soft Landing S e e m s L i k e l y a s D e m a n d S t a y s S t r o n g, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 2 8 ( A u g u s t 2 4, ) : I a n Y o u n g, C h i n a H e a d e d f o r a S o f t L a n d i n g?, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 2 7 ( A u g u s t 1 8, ) :

39 ASEAN % 6.7% 3.1% 5.9% 9.3% 5.2% 10.4% - 0.2% 2.1% 4.1% 10.1% % % 25

40 ( ) % Share of: Total merchandise imports Agricultural products Of which: Food Mining products Manufectures Of which: Chemicals Other semi- manufactures M a c h i n e r y Of which: Office amd telecom equiment Electrical machinery and apparatus Textiles Clothing Other consumer goods Of which: Toys and games Footwear Travel goods F u r n i t u r e W T O, O x f o r d E c o n o m i c s a n d T h e S i g n a l G r o u p. T h e C h i n a E f f e c t : A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t o n t h e U S E c o n o m y o f T r a d e a n d I n v e s t m e n t w i t h C h i n a, T h e C h i n a B u s i n e s s F o r u m, ( J a n u a r y, ) : 9. 26

41 ASEAN * China Taiwan South korea Singapore Hong Kong Japan Total O x f o r d E c o n o m i c F o r e c a s t i n g L t d.(oef) O x f o r d E c o n o m i c s a n d T h e S i g n a l G r o u p. T h e C h i n a E f f e c t : A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t o n t h e U S E c o n o m y o f T r a d e a n d I n v e s t m e n t w i t h C h i n a, T h e C h i n a B u s i n e s s F o r u m, ( J a n u a r y, ) : 7. 27

42 O x f o r d E c o n o m i c F o r e c a s t i n g L t d.(oef) O x f o r d E c o n o m i c s a n d T h e S i g n a l G r o u p. T h e C h i n a E f f e c t : A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t o n t h e U S E c o n o m y o f T r a d e a n d I n v e s t m e n t w i t h C h i n a, T h e C h i n a B u s i n e s s F o r u m, ( J a n u a r y, ) : 1 3. PVCP E P P P P 38%(

43 ( ( ( ) % 13.78% %18.40( ) 29

44 % 24.99% 15.57% % 26.18% 10.98% % 29.71% 13.78% % 26.41% 14.46% 1999 ( ( ( ( % 62.40% 61.70% 62.30% 63.60% 18.50% 19.40% 19.40% 18.80% 16.90% 15.90% 17.40% 17.80% 17.70% 18.40% 2003~2004 ( ) ( ( ) % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 30

45 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % ( ) ( 1. ( ) 86.49(

46 ( ) % 42.76% 8.98% 4.36% % % 30.01% 7.34% % % 20.17% 1.53% % 10.23% 24.70% 7.30% % 5.37% 3.98% 2.86% % 10.93% 11.64% 12.52% % 39.25% 7.30% 12.92% % 17.75% 15.82% 13.22% % 27.96% 55.33% 38.95% % 10.21% 86.49% 36.57% %20.50( ) ( ) 32

47 % 1997/ / / / / / % 12.78% 28.26% 36.71% 46.42% 56.29% % 32.64% 28.58% 32.29% 43.41% 68.20% 28.79% 16.10% 71.99% 39.14% 60.90% 55.78% 26.36% 7.43% 24.26% 40.33% 38.67% 39.11% % % % 61.60% 37.12% 61.33% % 8.73% % % % % % 36.13% 30.38% 12.40% 40.67% 20.46% 50.13% 3.64% 32.80% % 54.87% 67.99% 19.61% 91.60% % 33.73% 81.55% 97.34% 22.42% 50.31% % 5.96% 2.10% % % % % % % 66.03% 10.53% % % 12.32% 54.38% 18.57% 30.72% % 6.21% 34.55% 30.02% 0.22% 15.64% % 4.32% 14.70% 39.79% 40.01%

48 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 1998 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

49 ( 1) (1) (2)

50 (3) 21.90%21.60%20.50% ( ) ( 3) BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2005 ( E n g l a n d ),

51 ( ( 1) ( ) P EPPVC < > ( )

52 ( ) < > ( )

53 ( ) 80 ( ) % ( ) < > ( )

54 BP p.l.c., B P S t a t i s t i c a l R e v i e w o f W o r l d E n e r g y J u n e ( E n g l a n d ),5. 40

55 ( ) / BGGroup U n o c a l M a r a t h o n B u r l i n g t o n Eni A nache Phillips Anadarko BP Amoco Talisman Texaco Conoco ExxonMobil TotalFinaEIf Shell s m i t h b a r n e y / W T O : W o r k i n g P a r t y o n t h e A c c e s s i o n o f C h i n a, A N N E X 5 A, 1 O c t o b e r , W T / A C C / C H N / 4 9 ( O c t. 1, ), a t h t t p : / / d o c s o n l i n e. w t o. o r g / i m r d / d i r e c t d o c. a s p? D D F D o c u m e n t s / t / W T / A C C / C H N 4 9. d o c 41

56 ( ) % OPEC OPEC 2003/2004 ( ) ( )

57 % ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) % 1998 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

58 ( ) ( ) () M a r k L a z e l l, S t i l l m u c h w o r k t o d o p o s t-wto, Asian Chemical News ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 1, I s s u e ( J u l y 1 1, ) :

59 () ( ) %( ) % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2001 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) % 1999/ / / / % 13.10% 16.32% 32.33% 19.53% 21.66% 41.51% % 90.21% 31.50% 17.75% % 11.31% 11.80% 7.48% 19.20% % 11.75% 33.11% 11.87% 13.81% 19.05% 6.99% 13.28% 13.28% 16.71% 9.40% 19.35% 29.99% 18.86% 11.43% 16.10% 20.81% 14.75% 15.77% 17.42% 38.67% 22.36% 50.29% 32.19% 14.42% % 11.91% 21.59% 11.88% 1.65% 8.41% 4.85% 31.50% 11.60% 45

60 % 27.42% 23.00% 52.81% 33.96% ( ( ) % 22.02%( % 26.45% % %45.05 ( ( ) % Ian Young, CHINA'S OLYMPIC HOPES, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 3 2 / 3 3 ( A u g u s t 2 9, ) : 1 5. I a n Y o u n g, B P G E T S C H I N A P E T C H EM OKAY, EXXONMOBILE UP NEXT, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 3 2 / 3 3 ( A u g u s t 2 9, ) :

61 2003 ( ( ) 17.8% % % 25.5% % 7.7% 200 () 50% Lyn Tattum, Recovery is In the Air, 4 1. K e r r i W a l s h, S F O o f t h e Y e a r : R e t i r e d G e o r g i a G u l f C F O O f f e r s F u l l D i s c l o s u r e,

62 4 0 E GP T 9 () ( ) % ( % % % 2004/2005 ( ) T h e E c o n o m i s t I n t e l l i g e n c e U n i t,multinational companies in China:Winners and loser,

63 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2002 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

64 90% ( ) %( ) % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2000 ( ) % P P 2004/2005 ( ) % 33%( ) 61%

65 % 1998 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) % 1998 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

66 % 2004/2005 ( ) Share of: Total merchandise imports Textiles Clothing Other consumer goods Of which: Footwear W T O, O x f o r d E c o n o m i c s a n d T h e S i g n a l G r o u p. T h e C h i n a E f f e c t : A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t o n t h e U S E c o n o m y o f T r a d e a n d I n v e s t m e n t w i t h C h i n a, T h e C h i n a B u s i n e s s F o r u m, ( J a n u a r y, ) : 9. () % ( ) ( ) % % 10% % % 16.0% 4.7% 14.1% 21.1% 24.4% 2004/2005 ( ) /2004 ( ) /2003 ( ) /2002 ( ) ( )

67 %11.5% 11.4% % % % %8. 1 % % % % %1 9. 2% % 2004( ) /2005 ( ) ( ) % % 2001 ( ) ( ) /2005 ( ) /2004 ( ) N a t a s h a A l p e r o w i c z a n d W o o d A n d r e w, S h e l l F o c u s e s C h e m i c a l C a p e x i n A s i a..., Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 1 7 ( M a y 1 9, ) :

68 2002/2003 ( ) /2002 ( ) /1999 ( ) () %34% ( ) % BRS B RI R () 1997 ( ) % 4% ( ) 54

69 1999 ( ) % % 2003/2004 ( ) % 2003/2004 ( ) % 2003/2004 ( )

70 % 2002( ) ( ) ( )

71 ( ) ( ) % 78.13% %7.7% % % %15% () ( ) % % % 21.4% 31.4% () %0.2% %12.3% 2.7%2.3% %

72 ( ) ( ) 58

73 % 1998 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

74 % 1998 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

75 ( ) ( ) 1998 ( C N P C )( 16 (SINOPEC

76 C N P C 4 3 SINOPEC P E 20 P E 20 P E (4-1- 1) SINOPEC P E ( SINOPEC C N P C ~90% SINOPEC 60% L D P E PVC SME C N P C Sinopec ( ) S i n o p e c C N P C O t h e r s Ethylene % 32% 7% Prolypropylene % 21% 11% H D P E % 32% 5% L D P E % 32% 5% Polyvinyl chloride 230 8% 1% 91% Polystyrene % 7% 50% Polyester Fiber Filament % 3% 50% Polyester Fiber Staple % 3% 50% PP Fiber 17 10% 5% 85% Synthetic Rubber (SBR) % 7% B a l a j i S i n g h a n d I r m a T a n, E y e o n C h i n a : T h e r i s e o f p e t r o c h e m i c a l s, Chemical Market Reporter ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 2 ( J u l y 1 5, ) : (

77 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004, P E D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,

78 SM EG LDPE/EVA L L D P E H D P E / L L D P E PVC (

79 ( ( ) 65

80

81 % ( E x x o n- Mobile) 4 5 ( E x x o n ) (4-2- 2) 67% ( L D P EH D P E SME G PVC ) 6 1 % E x x o n (4-2- 3) ~ P e c k H w e e S i m a n d R o b e r t W e s t e r v e l t, P e t r o c h e m i c a l s, : ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2003/2004 ( ) A n d r e w W o o d, N o S i g n s o f a n I n v e s t m e n t S l o w d o w n, Chemical Week (New York ), vol.166, I s s u e. 3 1 ( S e p t e m b e r 2 2, ) : T u a z o n -B o e r R i t z e l, T h e 1 1 t h A n n u a l C h i n a C h e m i c a l I n d u s t r y C o n f e r e n c e, Chemical Week (New Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 2 6 ( A u g u s t 1 0, ) :

82 (BASF) (BP) / ( ) / / (Shell) / (E x x o n- Mobile) /2008( ) 80 K a n g W u a n d L i j u a n W a n g, C h i n a ' s e t h y l e n e s e c t o r c o n t i n u e s t o e x p a n d, Oil & Gas Journal ( T u l s a ), v o l , I s s u e. 1 ( J a n u a r y 5, ) : 4 6. ( % ( (S h e l ) M a l i n i H a r i h a r a n, S i n o p e c a n d B A S F p l a n f o r m o r e i n N a n j i n g, Asian Chemical News (New York ), v o l. 1 1, I s s u e ( O c t o b e r 3, ) : A n d r e w W o o d, s h e l l t i g h t e n i n g i t s C h e m i c a l F o c u s,

83 4-2- 2) ( ) A n d r e w W o o d a n d A r n o l d P e a r l m a n, S h e l l P u t s D o w n R o o t s i n C h i n a,39. 69

84

85

86 72

87 W T O --- WTO (T RIMS) TRIPS) TRIPS TRIMS P S (PVC TRIMS TRIPS 73

88 2001 WTO WTO WTO WTO W TO WTO M a r k L a z e l l, S t i l l m u c h w o r k t o d o p o s t-wto, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, W T O : W o r k i n g P a r t y o n t h e A c c e s s i o n o f C h i n a,p a r a. 46, 1 O c t o b e r , W T / L / ( N o v. 2 3, ), a t h t t p : / / d o c s o n l i n e. w t o. o r g / D D F D o c u m e n t s / t / W T / L / d o c Ian Young, New La w s S h o u l d S p e e d P r o j e c t A p p r o v a l s, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 2 9 ( A u g u s t 2 4, ) : U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r,

89 ( T R I M S ) WTO TRIMS TRIMS WTO < > 5 6 WTO WTO I b i d.,. WTO: Wo r k i n g P a r t y o n t h e A c c e s s i o n o f C h i n a,p a r a. 4 9, 1 O c t o b e r , W T / L / ( N o v. 2 3, ), a t h t t p : / / d o c s o n l i n e. w t o. o r g / D D F D o c u m e n t s / t / W T / L / d o c ( ) U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r,

90 TRIPS (TRIPS) 83% (5-1- 1) ( ) 5 8 TRIPS TRIPS E I U % 83% 57% 68% 52% ( ) 2001~2002 ( ) ( U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, I b i d., 6 1 M a r k L a z e l l, S t i l l m u c h w o r k t o d o p o s t-wto, T h e E c o n o m i s t I n t e l l i g e n c e U n i t,multinational companies in China:Winners and loser,36. 76

91 () : (%) " " ( WTO 6 4 WTO U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, ( ) 2001~2002 ( ) U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r,

92 WTO WTO (CTHA) ( 14) %15% ~ I b i d., 6 7 ( ) C 7 ( ) A 6 78

93 WTO 7 0 WTO 1998 W T (Sinopec) ( ) 2001~ T i m G l o g a n,chemicals in China (London:Urch Publis h i n g L t d, ), U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, ( ) ~ ) U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U S T R, ( D e c e m b e r 1 1, ) ( ) A 6 79

94 / W T O : W o r k i n g P a r t y o n t h e A c c e s s i o n o f C h i n a, A N N E X 5 A, 1 O c t o b e r , W T / A C C / C H N / 4 9 ( O c t. 1, ), a t h t t p : / / d o c s o n l i n e. w t o. o r g / i m r d / d i r e c t d o c. a s p? D D F D o c u m e n t s / t / W T / A C C / C H N 4 9. d o c 7 WTO 3 ( ) ( ( ) ( ) 14% 7 3 I a n Y o u n g, N o M o r e C h i n e s e P e t c h e m J V ' s?, Chemical Week (New York ), vol.165, I s s u e. 3 3 ( S e p t e m b e r 2 4, ) : 7. I a n Y o u n g, C i b a B u i l d i n g o n F i r m F o u n d a t i o n s, Chemical Week (New Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 2 5 ( A u g u s t 4, ) : 1 6. N a t a s h a A l p e r o w i c z, A t o f i n a N e g o t i a t e s M a j o r P e t c h e m s JV in China, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 3 7 ( O c t o b e r 1 5, ) : A n d r e w W o o d, T a k e a H a r d L o o k a t C h i n a, Chemical Week (New York ), vol.166, I s s u e. 2 9 ( S e p t e m b e r 8, ) : 3. 80

95 66% %( ) /2002 ( ) /1998 ( ) % 2003/2004 ( )

96 ( ) ( )% % % % 5% % 14% % 1% 27% % 5% 32% % 1% 18% % 0% 3% % 0% 8% 2.6 1% 1% 5% % 1% 15% 1.7 0% 1% 3% % 0% 5% 0.7 0% 0% 1% % 0% 4% % 1% 4% % 0% 6% % 5% 34% % 2% 48% % 1% 6% % 1% 12% % 2% 12% 2004 ( 2004 )

97 %( ) % 122.1%127.6%44.8%( ) % % % 18.06% 15.21% 13.73% 15.94% 18.71% 14.73% 16.01% 13.98% 18.44% 14.88% 17.54% 14.83% 19.40% 14.67% 15.41% 14.23% 19.57% 16.73% 17.49% 11.54% 16.95% 16.30% 15.62% 10.08% 16.47% 15.84% 14.64% 10.82% 1997/1998 ( ) /1999 ( ) /2001 ( ) /2002 ( ) /2003 ( ) /2004 ( ) 9 83

98 % 1996/ % 1.12% 21.82% % 1997/ % 4.68% 13.51% 9.94% 1998/ % 18.08% 5.21% 14.88% 1999/ % 39.62% 38.97% % 2000/ % 8.10% % % 2001/ % 17.75% 13.60% 30.05% 1996/ % % % 44.81% ( 1. (PP) 1995 P P P P ( ) ( / ) D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,

99

100 : (PS) : P S 1995 PS+EPS P S + E P S

101 ( ) 7 8 ( / ) D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,

102 P S : P S : PVC PVC 1995 PVC

103 (5-2- 8) ( / ) PVC ( / ) PVC P V D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,

104 P VC : PVC : ABS 90

105 1995 ABS ( ) ABS ( / ) ABS 8 0 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,

106 ABS : ABS : L D P E 47 L L D P E 50 92

107 LDPE 114 L L D P E ( ) 8 1 ( / ) LDPE L L D P E 8 1 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,

108 LDPE L L D P E : LDPE L L D P E :

109 5. ( H D P E ) H D P E 1995 H D P E H D P E ( ) 8 3 ( / ) HDPE 8 3 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,

110 HDPE : ( 1. (POM) P O M 96

111 P O M ( ) 2004 P O M ( / ) HDPE : P O M 8 4 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,

112 P O M : ( P C ) P C 1995 P C ( ) 2004 P C

113 ( / ) P O M : PC 8 5 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,

114 PC :

115 PC :

116 1 0 2

117 1 0 3 WTO WTO WTO TRIMTRIPS TRIMS TRIPS ~ 5

118 R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, v o l. 1 7, n o. 4 ( ) : I b i d., I b i d., I b i d., ( ) Ri c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s,

119 R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, : 8 4 ( ) ( ) ( ) R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, I b i d.,

120 ( Solo w GNP % 12.5% 5 K uzne ts I b i d., ( ) 55R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, ( ) Robert M. Solow, T e c h n i c a l C h a n g e a n d t h e A g g r e g a t e P r o d u c t i o n F u n c t i o n, Review of Economics and Statistics, v o l. 3 9, i s s u e 3 (

121 % ( ) S i m o n K u z n e t s,modern Economic Growth Rate, Structre, and Spread (New HavenYale University Press, 1966), ? 3 ( )

122 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Z 1 ( )

123 (Non- tradable !? ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

124 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q A :B : C : D : E F : G : H : I : J K : L M : N : O : P Q :

125 Kuznets %6% ( 1 2 ) % % ( ) A S i m o n K u z n e t s, M o d e r n E c o n o m i c G r o w t hrate, S t r u c t r e, a n d S p r e a d, ( ) ( )

126 % ; ( ) ( ) ( ) 85 : : ( ) J o h n R i c h a r d s o n,c h i n a p e a k s e a s o n s e t t o f a l l f l a t,a s i a n C h e m i c a l N e w s ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 1, I s s u e ( A u g u s t 1 5, ) : : 3 ( ) ( )

127 GDP ( ) G e o r g i n a W i l d e,china to 2010-The pace of reform ( U n i t e d K i n g d o mt h e E c o n o m i s t I n t e l l i g e n c e U n i t, ), % 4% 0% 28% 6% 7% 100% % % % 172 1% 407 2% 74 0% 333 2% % ( )

128 % ( ) : 3 5 ( ) : ( ) I b i d., I a n Y o u n g, R i d i n g A s i a ' s I n d u s t r y U p c y c l e,

129 ( ) P e c k H w e e S i m a n d R o b e r t W e s t e r v e l t, P e t r o c h e m i c a l s, ( ) ( )

130 A n d r e w W o o d a n d A r n o l d P e a r l m a n, S h e l l P u t s D o w n R o o t s i n C h i n a,39. 7; 1 0 : M a r k L a z e l l, S t i l l m u c h w o r k t o d o p o s t -WTO, :

131 : D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004 ( J a p a n : D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c., ), :

132 > N a t a s h a A l p e r o w i c z,, C h i n a B u i l d s U p C o n t r a c t o r s ' H o p e s,23.i a n Y o u n g, N o M o r e C h i n e s e P e t c h e m J V ' s?, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l , I s s u e. 3 3 ( Se p t e m b e r 2 4, ) : ( ) A A n d r e w W o o d, T h e T i g e r s v s. t h e D r a g o n, C h e m i c a l W e e k, v o l , I s s u e 8 ( ) : ( )

133 SM EG LDPE/EVA L L D P E H D P E / L L D P E PVC (

134 ( )

135 1 2 1

136

137 12 3

138 1 2 4

139 1 2 5

140 1 2 6

141 1 2 7

142

143 1 2 9

144 1 3 0

145 s s

146 ( ) ( )

147 3 ( ) WTO 1 3 3

148 4 Industry Sector C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Industrial inorganics Alkalies and chlorine N o n p e t r o c h e m i c a l Industrial gases Nonpetroche m i c a l Inorganic pigments N o n p e t r o c h e m i c a l Plastics materials, synthetics Plastic materials and resins P e t r o c h e m i c a l Synthetic rubber P e t r o c h e m i c a l Cellulosic man- made fibers P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Organic fibers P e t r o c h e m i c a l Drugs Biological products P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Medicinals and botanicals P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Pharmaceutical preparations P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Soaps, cleaners, toilet goods Soap and other detergents P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Polishes P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Surface active agents P e t r o c h e m i c a l Toilet preparations P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Paints and allied products P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Industrial organics Gum and wood N o n p e t r o c h e m i c a l C y c l i c c r u d e s a nd intermediates P e t r o c h e m i c a l Industrial organics P e t r o c h e m i c a l Agricultural chemicals Nitrogenous fertilizers P e t r o c h e m i c a l Phosphate fertilizers P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Fertilizers- mixing P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Pesticides Petro c h e m i c a l- dependent Miscellaneous Adhesives and sealants P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Explosives P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Printing ink P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Carbon black P e t r o c h e m i c a l Chemical preparations, not elsewhere classified N onpetrochemical H. P e t e r G r a y a n d I n g o W a l t e r,t h e P e t r o c h e m i c a l I n d u s t r y,i n I n v e s t m e n t i n c e n t i v e s a n d p e r f o r m a n c e r e q u i r e m e n t s, e d., b y G u i s i n g e r, S t e p h e n E. ( N e w Y o r 1 3 4

149 1 ( 1 3 ( )

150 2 ( 14 ( )

151 ( ) / BASF / BP / SHELL / EXXON N P C, # N P C, # 7 1, CAMEL OLEFIN QATRA / PHILLIPS Q G P C Q - CHEM 1,

152 JUPC 1, CHEVRON U A E ADNOC , , PVC.PVC P U PVC PVC P C PVC P U PVC PVC. P U PVC PVC. PVC. P U PMMA FRP PMMA.PU PVC.PMMA PVC PVC P E P E FRP P U P U 1 3 8