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舞衲骆
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1 国际农产品供需市场的七大特征 Characteristics of the International Agricultural and Food Market 吕向东 Dr. Lv Xiangdong 农业部农业贸易促进中心 Agricultural Trade Promotion Center(ATPC) Ministry of Agriculture, P. R. China

2 1. 世界粮食供需总体基本平衡, 但区域性短缺和粮食不安全问题突出, 粮食危机的风险始终存在 1. As a whole, the world s grain supply and demand has been in balance. But food shortage occurs in some areas, as well as the risk of food crisis. 表 1 世界主要农作物产量与消费量 ( 万吨 % ) Table1. Production and consumption of the world s major food (10 thousand tons, %) 年均增速 Average annual growth rate 三大谷物 Major cereal 大豆 Soybean 食糖 Sugar 产量 Production 消费量 Consumption 产量 Production 消费量 Consumption 产量 Production 消费量 Consumption

3 粮食人均占有量稳步提高, 但地区间不平衡差异明显 The global per capita food supply has steadily increased, but food supply across regions remains imbalanced. 表 2 世界主要农产品人均占有量单位 : 公斤 / 人 Table 2. Per capita supply of major agricultural products (unit: kg/person) 谷物 Cereal 油料 Oil seeds 甘蔗 Sugar cane 肉类 Meat

4 表 3 发达国家与发展中国家谷物人均占有量比较 Table 3. Per capita cereal supply in developed and developing countries 单位 : 公斤 / 人 (unit: kg/person) 澳大利亚 Australia 美国 USA 低收入缺粮国 Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries

5 2. 相对有购买力的有效需求而言, 国际农产品市场供给充裕, 曾在相当时期内供过于求 2. The world s agricultural product supply is sufficient to meet the effective demand, and even exceeds it in a very long time. 图年国际食品价格变化情况 Figure1. International food price

6 图年全球谷物库存水平 Figure2. Global Cereal Stock-to-Use Ratio

7 3. 国际市场上主要农产品贸易量占生产总量的比重有限, 农产品基本供给能力主要依靠国内生产 3. The share of trade in total production is rather small for agroproducts, especially for cereals, which means that domestic production accounts for most of the food supply worldwide. 图年全球谷物贸易量占产量比重 Figure3. The share of cereal trade in total production

8 大豆棉花和食糖等非粮食作物的贸易自由化程度相对较高 By contrast, trade of non-food crops, such as soybeans, cotton and sugar, is more liberalized. 图年度全球棉花等农产品贸易量占产量比重 Figure 4. The proportion of trade in total production : cotton, soybean and sugar 8

9 4. 国际农产品市场供给集中度很高, 跨国公司对大宗农产品贸易影响较大 4. Supply of the international agricultural market is highly concentrated, while several TNCs have great influence on agricultural trade. 表年世界农产品主要出口国所占比重单位 :% Table4. Share of major exporters in world agricultural market (%) 出口国 exporter 大米 Rice 小麦 Wheat 玉米 Maize 大豆 Soybean 泰国越南印度巴基斯坦美国 Thailand, Vietnam, India, Pakistan, U.S. 美国法国澳大利亚加拿大 U.S., France, Australia, Canada 美国阿根廷巴西 U.S., Argentina, Brazil 美国巴西阿根廷 U.S., Argentina, Brazil

10 5. 受气候变化生物质能源发展以及农产品资本化影响, 国际农产品市场不确定性风险性加剧 5. Uncertainty and risks in the agricultural market have increased as a result of climate change, biofuel development and speculative capital. 表年全球自然灾害发生次数 Table5. Number of natural disasters reported during 自然灾害 Natural Disasters 极端天气 Extreme Weather 旱灾 Drought 洪涝 Floods 增长率 Growth rate 26% 228% 10% 71% 10

11 6. 全球后备耕地和水资源仍有相当数量, 国际农产品市场供给仍有增长潜力 6. There is still a lot of unused potential arable land and water resources worldwide, which contributes to the growth potential of global agricultural product supply. 表 6 世界生物燃料耗用农产品占产量的比重 (%) Table 6. Share of agricultural product used for biofuel in total production 粗粮 Coarse grains 甘蔗 Sugar cane 植物油 Edible oil 小麦 Wheat (on average)

全球有 40 亿公顷的可开垦耕地, 是全球现有 16 亿公顷耕地面积的 2.5 倍 With an area of 4 billion hectares, global unused potential arable land is 2.5 times the size of the current arable land.

12 全球有 40 亿公顷的可开垦耕地, 是全球现有 16 亿公顷耕地面积的 2.5 倍 With an area of 4 billion hectares, global unused potential arable land is 2.5 times the size of the current arable land. 表 7 部分区域及其重点国家耕地开发潜力单位 : 亿公顷 Table 7. Distribution of unused potential arable land ( 100 million hectares) 区域和国别 (Region) 农业用地面积 Agricultural land 耕地面积 Arable land 耕地潜力 Potential Arable Land 非洲 Africa 苏丹 Sudan 南非 South Africa 拉美和加勒比 Latin America and the Caribbean 巴西 Brazil 阿根廷 Argentina 中东欧和中亚 Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia 哈萨克斯坦 Kazakhstan 俄联邦 Russia 发达国家 Developed country 澳大利亚 Australia 美国 U.S

到 2050 年, 谷物的需求量预计将达到约 30 亿吨谷物的年产量必须再增加近 10 亿吨 ( 目前为 21 亿吨 ) Cereal demand is expected to reach about 3 billion tons by 2050.

13 7. 未来全球粮食需求增长巨大, 保障世界粮食安全任重道远 7. Ensuring global food security will still be very challenging in the future as demand for food will increase dramatically. 到 2050 年, 谷物的需求量预计将达到约 30 亿吨谷物的年产量必须再增加近 10 亿吨 ( 目前为 21 亿吨 ) Cereal demand is expected to reach about 3 billion tons by To meet this demand, cereal production will need to increase by 1 billion tons. 到 2050 年, 世界人口将从 2010 年的 69 亿增至 91 亿, 增长 34%, 届时全球 70% 的人口将住在城市 World population will grow from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 9.1 billion in 2050, increasing by 34%. Nearly 70% of the world's population will live in cities. 13

14 谢谢! Thank you! 14 农业部农业贸易促进中心 AGRICULTURAL TRADE PROMOTION CENTER, MOA

Chinese oil import policies and reforms 随着经济的发展, 目前中国石油消费总量已经跃居世界第二作为一个负责任的大国, 中国正在积极推进能源进口多元化, 鼓励替代

Chinese oil import policies and reforms SINOPEC EDRI 2014.8 Chinese oil import policies and reforms 随着经济的发展, 目前中国石油消费总量已经跃居世界第二作为一个负责任的大国, 中国正在积极推进能源进口多元化,