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1 DOI: /CTA Control Theory & Applications Vol. 31 No. 2 Feb ( ) 120 ( ) (, ) :,,. ;,, 5... : ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; : T811 : A The global economic crisis and lessons drawn in the viewpoint of economic cybernetics (analogy study and review) To commemorate the 120 anniversary of the birth of the founder of Cybernetics Norbert Wiener ( ) WAN Bai-wu (Systems Engineering Institute, Xi an Jiaotong University, Xi an Shaanxi , China) Abstract: From the cybernetics point of view and using analogy study, the paper analyses the global economic system, discusses its configuration and decomposition, control structure, monitoring and management objectives for different levels, information structure, control strategy as well as subsystem control and coordination. This paper theoretically characterizes the economic system crisis as the instability of man-made control system, and applies the relation between stability of engineering large-scale system and that of its subsystems to analogically study the global economic system crisis and obtains five arguments. Economic interpretation to the mixed coordination method is given. And its characteristics, advantages and significance to the mixed economy regulation are clarified. Finally based on above study the paper lists the lessons drawn from the crisis. Key words: economic cybernetics; analogy study; global large-scale economic system; economic crisis; decentralized control; hierarchical control; stability; mixed coordination method; macroeconomic regulation and control 1 (Introduction) (International congress of cybernetics and systems) (economic cybernetics), ( )., 20 80,, [1 5]. 90,, [6 7]. 40, [8 9]. 2006, 2008?? [10 14], 2 (Cybernetic analysis of world economy), (WTO) : ; : wanbw@mail.xjtu.edu.cn.

2 130 31,,. ( ),,. (economic globalization). :,. :,., ( ), ( ).. [15 16], 2.1 (The configuration and decomposition of the global largescale economic system) 200.,.., :,, [13 14]. 3, [17:p3]., : [18],. [18],,.,, [13]. 2.2 (The control structure of the global large-scale economic system), ( ),, ( ) ( ) ( ).,., ( 1 ),, --.,, [17:p126, 8:p431]. ( [13] ). 1 Fig. 1 Decentralized control of the global economic large-scale system

3 2 : ( ) 131,,,, [19]. ( 3 : ),. ( 1 )., 3,. ( ), ( 1 )., ( ),..,,, 2., WTO, ( )., 2. 2 Fig. 2 Global ring interconnection among economic subsystems, ( ),., : 3 2, 2, 3,. 3, ( 1 ). 3 Fig. 3 Decomposition of global economic large-scale system and its hierarchical control structure for subsystem

4 (The monitoring, management objectives and constraints for different levels of the large-scale economic system) ( ),,,,.,,,.,,,. [20],.., (GNP) GDP [8:p443]. : GDP :,,.,. ( ) ( ),, ;. :,,,,.,,., 1997, 2.4 (Information structure of the global large-scale economic system), [15].,,.,,,, ( ),, ( ), [18]. [18]. [17:p29].., [13] :, [17:p7]. : ( )..,,.,

5 2 : ( ) (Control and coordination of nation-level economic subsystem), 4, 2.,,. --.,, ( ). 4 Fig. 4 Hierarchical control of large-scale system,,, 2.2, --,.., ( 4 ). 3 [15 16] : [21] 2 : ( [16] ).,,,.,., ( ),, [16]. [21] 1968, 2, 3., 3, 4 :, ( 4 1 ) ( 4 1 ) ( [16] 4.2).,,.,, (intervention). --, ( [12] 3 ),., -- ( ) ;,.,,.,, (capitalist mixed economy).,,. [22] ; ;

6 ; ;. 30,.,., 2008 :,,,,,., 4 ;.,,,., 2009.,,,. [8] 14 3,. : ( ),,,,., 2008,,,, 5 [23:p204]., 2.6 (Control strategy for nation-level economic subsystem) ( ), [15 16].,,. :, 2.5,, [23:p208].,,.,, ( ). 2.3,,.,,,, ( ).,,.., ( ) ( 1 3 ),., ( (self-steering)( [14] 3 1)),

7 2 : ( ) , GDP 3 (Stability of the global large-scale economic system) 3.1 (Analogy of macroeconomic stability in economics with man-made system stability in physics),,, ( ) [24], [25]. [25], 5., ( ), (macroeconomic instability), [24 27] [28]., 4 5 :,.,,, :, GDP 5 ( 5).. ( ). GDP, [29,p11]., : 4, [23]. ( ) ( ) ( ). 5 Fig. 5 Business cycle, 30, GDP 26.7%, 2008 GDP 5.1%( 6%) 10% [30]. [23] 2.1.., (, GDP ). (IMF),, :,, [31].,,,,, ( ) [13]. ( ),,,, :,,

8 ;. 3.2 (Relation between stability of global large-scale economic system and that of its subsystems),,,,.,.,,,, [15 16,29,32], [33].,,. ( ),,, 5.,,,. 2008,, 5,, ,,, [15] 1.4.,,,,.,,,, ( ), 2008,.. : , [34] [35]. 2,, [32]., ( ),,. 2008, ;,, 3,, [32] :., 4,

9 2 : ( ) ,, ( ). 4,,,,,.,, 2008,, [17:p29,23:p92].,,,, :, 2001, 5,, ( [33] 4).,,,,. ( ),. 4 (Monitoring the global large-scale economic system),,.,, 2,.,,,., 20 8,.,, 2008,,. (J Bidet) : -- (world-state), (nation-states) [36]. --.,,.,. : --.,,, (Conclusion Lessons from the crisis in the viewpoint of cybernetics)

10 138 31,,,,,,,, ;,. : 1), ( ),. 2)..,, [37]. 3) [23:p208],.,, 2008,. 4),,, 5). [17],, 6), 7),,.. [38].,,,,,, S (Umpleby) [13],, (second-order economics) [39].,, (agent-based computational economics) [38, 40]. :. (References): [1]. [J]., 1979, (9): (WU Jiapei. Discussion on economic cybernetics [J]. World Economy, 1979, (9): ) [2],. [M] //. :, 1981: (ZHANG Zhongjun, HOU Xianrong. Application of modern control theory to macro-economics [M] //Paper Compilation on the Systems Engineering. Beijing: Science Press, 1981: ) [3]. [J],, 1988, (6): (GONG De en. Economic cybernetics: a review[j]. Journal of Renmin University of China, 1988, (6): ) [4]. (1 6) [J]., 1985, (5): 33 51; 1985, (6): 67 72; 1986, (1): 53 59; 1986, (2): 56 61; 1986, (3): 59 63; 1986, (5): (ZHOU Shujum. Lectures on economic cybernetics(1 6) [J]. Journal of Economic Theory and Economic Management, 1985, (5): 33 51; 1985, (6): 67 72; 1986, (1): 53 59; 1986, (2): 56 61; 1986, (3): 59 63; 1986, (5): ) [5],. [J]., 1986, 12(2): (WAN Baiwu, HAN Chongzhao. Control theory and macroeconomic models [J]. Acta Automatica, 1986, 12(2): )

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<4D6963726F736F667420576F7264202D20D3C3BFB4B2BBBCFBB5C4CAD6D6CEC0EDCDA8D5CD332E646F63> 用看不见的手治理通胀刘愿华南师范大学经济与管理学院摘要 : 凯恩斯主义主导下的宏观调控政策导致通货膨胀成为一种周期性现象,2008 年全球金融危机以来新一轮的通货膨胀对我国国民经济及居民生活已造成深刻影响从政策层