总第 429 期周大鹏 : 制造业服务化演化机理及发展趋势研究 13 product sophistiation hard technology soft technology UNIDO Industry Development

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1 2013 /01 总第 429 期商业研究 COMMERCIAL RESEARCH X 周大鹏本文对制造业服务化现象这种新型制造业发展模式进行了研究, 发现该模式预示着制造业发展方向在外部条件具备的前提下, 制造业服务化具有更强的竞争力, 将成为制造业的最终发展形态本文借鉴了生态位理论, 构建了传统制造行业与服务化制造行业在一个经济系统内演化发展的数理模型, 并用数值模拟法进行了分析结果证实了理论上的推测, 即在满足制造业服务化模式具有更大的潜在市场的条件下, 且无外部制约因素的前提下, 即使在产业发展初期, 服务化制造业规模小于传统制造业, 但最终将超越传统制造业成为市场主流, 这一结果对我国经济转型制造业改造提升具有一定的借鉴意义制造业服务化 ; 服务要素 ; 生态位 ; 演化 ; 竞争力 F271 B Servitization GE IBM 2007 XEROX 2009 Vandermerwe Rada 1988 bundles 2011 S. W. Brown 1994 Garcia Mila & McGuire 1998 Ernst&Kim 2002 Rogelio Oliva & Robert Kallenebrg 2003 Szalavetz 收稿日期 : 作者简介 : 周大鹏 ( ), 男, 山东泰安人, 上海社会科学院世界经济研究所助理研究员, 经济学博士, 研究方向 : 跨国公司与国际投资

总第 429 期周大鹏 : 制造业服务化演化机理及发展趋势研究 13 product sophistiation hard technology soft technology 1 1

2 总第 429 期周大鹏 : 制造业服务化演化机理及发展趋势研究 13 product sophistiation hard technology soft technology UNIDO Industry Development Report Industrial sophistication 2

14 商业研究 2013 /01 12. 8% 11. 94% 5% 10-39 3 1 12 Andy Neely 2007 2. 15. 70% 1 700 3. 12. 18% 1 319 4. 11. 94% 1 293 5. 5. 10% 552 6. 3. 89% 421 7. 3. 83% 415 8. 2. 69% 291 9. 1. 68% 182 10. 1. 15% 125 11.

3 14 商业研究 2013 / % % 5% Andy Neely % % % % % % % % % % % 22 Andy Neely. The servitization of manufacturing An analysis of global trends EB /OL. European Operations Management Association Conference Ankara Turkey. http / /www. ifm. eng. cam. ac. uk /ssme /references /Neely_ref _cambridgessme % % 40% 35% 19% 12% 30% - 20% 28% 23 20% 15% 11% % 15. 7% 1% 2 Andy Neely. The servitization of manufacturing An analysis of global trends EB /OL. European Operations Management Association Conference Ankara Turkey. http / /www. ifm. eng. cam. ac. uk /ssme /references /Neely _ ref _ cambridgessme

4 总第 429 期周大鹏 : 制造业服务化演化机理及发展趋势研究 % 2006 UNIDO 2009 Andy Neely OECD

16 商业研究 2013 /01 OECD 2010 OECD 2008 GDP 2. 3% 3. 8% 3. 4% 2. 8% 27 1.

2003 30 3 3 2006 1 032 2010 2006 2 497 6 2005-2010 Nphase.

5 16 商业研究 2013 /01 OECD 2010 OECD 2008 GDP 2. 3% 3. 8% 3. 4% 2. 8% % OECD GDP 5 GDP OECD OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators MSTI Nphase. Winning with After - Sale Services The new frontier of machine - to - machine EB /OL. http / /www. qualcomm. com /common /documents /white _ papers /QUALCOMM - WinningAftersales. pdf

总第 429 期周大鹏 : 制造业服务化演化机理及发展趋势研究 17 7 2002-2007 50% Niche 5 7 Global Insight Inc. US Equipment Finance Market Study 2007-2008 R.

6 总第 429 期周大鹏 : 制造业服务化演化机理及发展趋势研究 % Niche 5 7 Global Insight Inc. US Equipment Finance Market Study R. WASHINGTON Equipment leasing & finance foundation { dx 1 = a dt 1 x 1 m 1 - x 1 - x 2 1 m 1 dx 2 = a dt 2 x 2 - x 2 - p 2 x 1 2 x 1 2 a m p 2 1 Logistic 2 Logistic Logistic 1 dx = ax dt Gause Gause' s hypothesis x 2 2 p 2 x 1

7 18 商业研究 2013 / p p = q = 0 p = q = 1 6 m - x - px m 1 2 Dennis m m m 1 p 2 λ 2 < 0 λ 2 < 0 m m 1 - λ 1 = - a 2 < 0 λ 2 = a 1 λ 1 > m 1 m 1 - > 00 λ 2 > 0 0 m 1 - m > < 0 λ 2 < 0 0 f 1 = 1 f 2 = f 1 f 1 Logistic a m p x 1 x 2 A = f 2 f 2 x 1 x 8% m x A A = a P 1 0 [ ] 1. p 1 0 a2 λe - A = 0 Matlab6. 5 λ 1 = a 1 λ 2 = a m 1 0 A 3 - a 1 - a 1 A = - m 1 p a 2 m 2 λe - A = 0 - m 1 p 2 λ 1 = - a 1 < 0 λ 2 = a 2 λ 2 - m 1 p 2 > 0 >

总第 429 期周大鹏 : 制造业服务化演化机理及发展趋势研究 19 9 3 0 0 Matlab6.

8 总第 429 期周大鹏 : 制造业服务化演化机理及发展趋势研究 Matlab dx 1 dt dx 2 > 0 dx 1 dt dt < 0 dx 2 > 0 dx 1 dt dt dx 2 < dt p 2 Matlab = 1 x 2 2. p 0. 5 p 2 = 0. 5 p 2 x 1

9 20 商业研究 2013 /01 m t p 2 p = q = 0 p = q = 1 t OECD 2. m 1 m 1 > m 1 > m m 1 - < 0 0 < t m UNIDO. Industry Develpoment Report 2009 R. Vienna United Nations Industrial Development Organization

10 总第 429 期周大鹏 : 制造业服务化演化机理及发展趋势研究 Andrea Szalavetz. Peripheral Participants in Global Production Networks Chain Dynamics in the Transformation from Industrial to Industrial to Intellectual Capitalism J. INSTITUTE FOR UNIDO Industry Development Report http / /www. ehso. com /siccodes. php UNIDO. Industry Develpoment Report 2009 Neely 2007 R. Vienna United Nations Industrial Development Organization Global Insight Inc. US Equipment Finance TON Equipment leasing & finance foundation Dennis G. Zill Michael R. Cullen. Differential. J. equations with Boundary - Value Problems Http / /www. core. org. cn /OcwWeb /Electrical - Engineering - and - Computer - Science /6-336JFall2003 / CourseHome. 1 Vandermerwe S and Rada J. Servitization of business adding value by adding services J. European Management Journal S. W. Brown RP Fisk and MJ Bitner. The Development and Emergence of Services Marketing Thought J. International Journal of Service Industry Management S. W. Brown. The Move to Solutions Providers J. Marketing Management Garcia Mila T and McGuire T. A Note on the Shift to a Service - Based Economy and the Consequences for Regional Growth J. Journal of Regional Science Ernst D. - Kim L. Global production networks knowledge diffusion and local capability formation J. Research Policy Rogelio Oliva Robert Kallenebrg. Managing the transition from products to services International Journal of Service Industry Management WORLD ECONOMICS HUNGARIAN ACADE- MY OF SCIENCES Working Papers 2003 Market Study R. WASHING- M. Thomson Learning J. 12. J J J J J J J J J J J ( 责任编辑 : 刘春雪 )

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