Colliers Quarterly Q2 218 9 July 218 SHENZHEN OFFICE 深圳 写字楼 Rent rises further due to firm office leasing market Kirsten Geng Assistant Manager South China 写字楼租金市场租金增长强劲 耿毓坤副经理 华南 After achieving real GDP growth of 8.1% in 218 Q1, demand for Grade A office space in Shenzhen has stayed robust. In Q2 218, the rent showed a strong quarterly and yearly increase of 3.5% and 6.3% respectively. We expect new quality office stock to push rents up further in H2 218, with a full year increase of 8%. Considering the heavy new supply in the next two years, notably in Qianhai, we estimate the vacancy rate to rise significantly to 29% by 219. However, over this time rents in Futian and Luohu districts should remain stable. The overall office rent should return to growth in 22 as Qianhai should benefit from the completion of key infrastructure. Considering the moderate future supply in the Futian CBD, especially compared to Qianhai, tenants with larger space demands should enter the market soon. 深圳市经济增长迅猛, 截至 218 年第一季度 GDP 实现同比增长约 8.1% 相应的, 深圳甲级写字楼物业市场第一季度租赁需求持续活跃, 季内平均租金增长强劲, 环比攀升了 3.5%, 同比攀升 6.3% 我们预计新入市的高品质楼宇将在 218 年下半年进一步推动租金上涨, 实现年度同比增长 8% 而由于未来两年将有持续大量新增供应入市, 尤其是前海, 我们预测空置率将于 219 年攀升至 29% 然而, 南山 罗湖和福田的租金或将保持稳定 到 22 年, 受益于前海的重点基建项目的完成, 深圳写字楼租金将重新拾起增势 由于未来新增供应趋于稳定, 对福田核心商业区有大面积需求的租户应尽早入市 Forecast at a glance 预测一览表 Demand The firm economic growth helped drive market demand. According to the market performance since 217, e forecast that over the next three years, the net absorption of the market will exceed 1. million sq m (11.1 million sq ft) annually. Supply Five projects totalling 194, sq m (2.1 million sq ft) rental space entered the market this quarter. Further, we expect to see 1.3 million sq m (14. million sq ft) of new supply over H2 218. For the next three years, we expect the total 需求稳健的经济增长拉动了持续的租赁需求 根据 217 年以来的市场表现, 我们预计未来三年, 全市净吸纳量将达到每年超过 万平方米 (1 万平方英尺 ) 供应 218 年第二季度深圳录得五个项目, 共计可租赁面积为 194, 平方米 (21 万平方英尺 ) 此外,218 下半年我们或将见证约 13 万平方米 (14 万平方英尺 ) 的新增供应入市 未来三年, 深圳核心地
new supply in core areas to exceed 6. million sq m (65. million sq ft), half of which is scheduled to be in Qianhai. Vacancy rate The vacancy rate stood at 13.6% at end- Q2, up by.3 percentage points QOQ, but down by 11.1 percentage points. We expect vacancy to rise to a peak of nearly 29.% in 219 due to heavy new supply in Qianhai, but to fall back to 13.7% by end-222. Rent We expect rent to rise by 8% in 218, followed by a downward adjustment of 4% in 219 due to heavy new supply in Qianhai, however, we expect to see positive rental growth in Futian and Nanshan. The city average Rent should pick up in 22. 区新增甲级写字楼供应超过 6 万平方米 (6 万平方英尺 ); 其中一半的供应量将来自前海 空置率本季度空置率为 13.6%, 环比上浮.3%, 但同比下调 11.1% 我们预估前海的大量新增供应将带动全市空置率在 219 年攀升至近 29% 的历史高位, 随后或于 222 年回调至 13.7% 租金我们预测 218 年租金会稳中有升, 同比或有 8% 的增幅, 而到 219 年受前海大量新增供应的压力或有调整性下浮, 浮动区域约为 4% 但福田和南山依然预计有小幅租金增长 全市租金随后于 22 年会有所回升 Demand stayed robust, vacancy rate remained stable Driving demand, Shenzhen's economic momentum continues to be strong with a robust Q1 GDP growth rate of 8.1% YOY. Emerging industries, a classification from the Shenzhen government including 1 industrial sectors, such as AI, internet, culture & innovation, among others, accounted for 37.7% of GDP; and the total added value of these industries increased by 11.4% YOY. Fixed asset and real estate investment increased by 28.1% and 31.1% YOY respectively. Enterprises with a revenue exceeding RMB2 million (USD3.1 million) saw their total revenue increase 7.6% YOY to reach RMB18.1 billion (USD2.8 billion). The leasing market was active in Q2 218, keeping the city s vacancy rate stable. Luohu saw its vacancy rate drop by.1 percentage points QOQ to 12.2%. Futian saw its vacancy rate drop by 2.6 percentage points QOQ to 8.4% despite the new supply CDB Tower. This is because a lack of developable land will limit future supply, so tenants are taking the opportunity to lease space now, securing their spots in the CBD. On the other hand, Nanshan s vacancy rate increased by 3.1 percentage points to 1.4% due to new supply. Impacted by the only new project entering the market, Qianhai s vacancy rate increased by 3.2 percentage points to 84.5%. We expect Qianhai s vacancy rate to remain high until the planned infrastructure and business amenities are in place. 租赁市场活跃, 空置率稳定 深圳经济保持积极态势,218 年第一季度全市 GDP 实现同比增长 8.1%, 其中新兴产业的工业增加值实现同比增长 11.4%, 占 GDP 的 37.7% 全市固定资产投资和房地产投资同比各自增长 28.1% 和 31.1% 新增的营收超过 万元的规模企业实现收入 181 亿元人民币 (28 亿美元 ), 同比增长 7.6% 218 二季度, 租赁市场活跃, 全市空置率表现平稳 罗湖区的空置率表现较稳定, 环比下调.1% 至 12.2%; 福田 CBD 尽管季内录入新项目国银金融中心, 其空置率依然环比下跌 2.6% 至 8.4% 鉴于核心商业区已经没有土地新增供应, 有限的资源拉动租户对该市场的需求 另一方面, 南山季内由于新增供应的影响, 空置率上浮 3.1%, 至 1.4% 前海季度内有一个项目入市, 导致其空置率环比上升 3.2% 至 84.5%, 短期内或因未成熟的基建环境而维持高位 中长期来看, 南山和前海的租赁需求将日渐活跃 2 Colliers Quarterly 9 July 218 Shenzhen Office Colliers International
Demand remained robust in H1 218, especially in Futian and Nanshan district. The most active industries include, Technology, Professional services, and Advanced manufacturing. Meanwhile, flexible working space is continuing to expand in Shenzhen. Major leasing transactions are listed as follows: MAJOR LEASING TRANSACTIONS Q1-Q2 218 PROPERTY TENANT INDUSTRY Rongchao Houhai Tower Energy Tower Dinghe Building Shenzhen Bay Tech Eco Park Zone 3 Uphills T2 Zhongjian Steel Building Wongtee Center DJI Great Wall Securities Guosheng Securities Asset Management Webank China Merchants FinTech Wework Ping an PH consulting Advanced Manufacturing FinTech Flexible Working Space Professional Services Raffles City Toutiao Technology Energy Tower AIA TCL Building Naked Hub Flexible Working Space 218 年上半年深圳的租赁需求持续强劲, 尤其在福田和额南 山区 其中的租赁主力行业包括金融 科技 专业服务和先 进制造 此外, 联合办公在深圳持续扩张 以下录入上半年 主要租赁交易信息 : 218 年上半年主要租赁交易 项目租户行业 荣超后海大厦大疆科技先进制造 能源大厦长城证券金融 鼎和大厦国盛证券资产管理金融 深圳湾科技生态园三区 来源 : 高力国际 微众银行 金融 深业上城 T2 招商局金融科技金融科技 中建钢构大厦 Wework 联合办公 皇庭中心平安普惠企业咨询专业服务 来福士广场今日头条科技 能源大厦友邦保险金融 TCL 大厦裸心社联合办公 Future rental growth led by Nanshan At the end of Q2 218, the average Grade A rent was RMB245 (USD38.) per sq m per month, an increase of 3.5 percent QOQ and 6.3 percent YOY. Luohu saw its rent rise by 1.6% QOQ, reaching RMB228 (USD35.2) per sq m per month in Q2 218. The average rent in Futian increased 2.9 percent QOQ and 4.3% YOY to RMB281 (USD43.4) per sq m per month. Supported by heavy demand due to the technology sector's quick expansion, Nanshan saw its average rent rise 8.2% QOQ and 16.7% YOY to RMB24 (USD31.7) per sq m per month. A lack of convenient transport infrastructure has limited Qianhai s appeal to potential tenants, and the district s rent has dropped by 2.9% QOQ to RMB149 (USD23.) per month per sq m. However, we expect rents in Qianhai to increase more rapidly when the major metro line starts operation in 22. 未来租金走势由南山领涨 截至 218 年第二季度末, 深圳市甲级写字楼市场的平均租金为 245 元 (38. 美元 ) 每月每平方米, 环比增长 3.5%, 同比增长 6.3% 分区看, 罗湖区 218 年第二季度录得租金 228 元 (35.2 美元 ), 环比增长 1.6%; 福田区的平均租金同上季度比增长 2.9%, 较去年同比攀升 4.3% 至每月每平方米 281 元人民币 南山区的甲级写字楼的平均租金, 受科技公司快速扩张的需求支撑, 环比增长 8.2%, 同比增长 16.7% 至每月每平方米 24 元人民币 另一方面, 前海因基建设施的未完善, 目前对租户吸引力较为有限, 其租金为每月每平方米 149 元人民币, 同上季度比下跌 2.9% 然而, 前海租金走低的情势或在 22 年主要地铁线路投入使用后有所改观 3 Colliers Quarterly 9 July 218 Shenzhen Office Colliers International
228 281 24 149 228 281 24 149 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 New Supply, Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate of the Shenzhen Grade A Office Market (' sq m) 深圳甲级写字楼市场新增供应 净吸纳量和空置率 ( 千平方米 ) 4 4 3 2 1 ' sq m ' 平方米 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % ' sq m ' 平方米 4 4 3 2 1 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % New Supply Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Shenzhen Grade A Office Rent by Submarket (RMB psm per month) 数据来源 : 高力国际 新增供应净吸纳量空置率 深圳甲级写字楼子市场租金 ( 人民币每月每平方米 ) RMB psm per month 人民币每月每平方米 Average Rent: RMB245 psm 2 per month 1 2 1 RMB psm per month 人民币每月每平方米 平均租金 : 每月每平方米人民币 245 元 Luohu 罗湖 Futian 福田 Nanshan 南山 Qianhai 前海 Luohu 罗湖 Futian 福田 Nanshan 南山 Qianhai 前海 数据来源 : 高力国际 Heavy new supply should enter the market over next three years We expect strong economic prospects to drive up new office leasing demand, which ought to lessen the disruption to Shenzhen s office market since we expect the upcoming new supply to spike between 219 and 22. We believe net absorption will exceed 1. million sq m (11.1 million sq ft) p.a. over the next three years. Five projects totalling 194, sq m (2.1 million sq ft) entered the market in Q2 218. Further, we expect to see 1.3 million sq m (11.1 million sq ft) of new supply over H2 218. For the next three years, we expect total new supply in core areas to exceed 6. million sq m (65. million sq ft), half of which should be in Qianhai. 未来三年前海将有大面积新增供应入 市 深圳稳健的经济增长拉动了持续的租赁需求, 并将减少深圳 219 年到 22 年大量的新增供应对市场的冲击 我们预计未来三年, 全市净吸纳量将达到每年超过 万平方米 (1 万平方英尺 ) 218 年第二季度深圳录得五个项目, 共计可租赁面积为 194, 平方米 (21 万平方英尺 ) 此外,218 下半年我们或将见证约 13 万平方米 (14 万平方英尺 ) 的新增供应入市 未来三年, 深圳核心地区新增甲级写字楼供应超过 6 万平方米 (6 万平方英尺 ); 其中一半的供应量将来自前海 4 Colliers Quarterly 9 July 218 Shenzhen Office Colliers International
The vacancy rate stood at 13.6% at end-q2, up by.3 percentage points QOQ, but down by 11.1 percentage points. We expect vacancy to rise to a peak of nearly 29.% in 219 due to heavy new supply in Qianhai, but to fall back to 13.7% by end-222. We expect rent to rise by 8% in 218, followed by a downward adjustment of 4% in 219 due to heavy new supply in Qianhai, however, we expect to see positive rental growth in Futian and Nanshan. The city average Rent should pick up in 22. 本季度空置率为 13.6%, 环比上浮.3%, 但同比下调 11.1% 我们预估前海的大量新增供应将带动全市空置率在 219 年攀升至近 29% 的历史高位, 随后或于 222 年回调至 13.7% 我们预测 218 年租金会稳中有升, 同比或有 8% 的增幅, 而到 219 年受前海大量新增供应的压力或有调整性下浮, 浮动区域约为 4% 但福田和南山依然预计有小幅租金增长 全市租金随后于 22 年会有所回升 For more information: Joey Yuan MRICS Deputy Managing Director Shenzhen +86 755 8825 8637 Joey.Yuan@colliers.com Andrew Haskins Executive Director Research Asia +852 2822 511 Andrew.Haskins@colliers.com Daniel Shih Senior Director Research Hong Kong & South China +852 2822 654 Daniel.Shih@colliers.com Copyright 218 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. 5 Colliers Quarterly 9 July 218 Shenzhen Office Colliers International