Equity Research 股票研究 Morning Research Department Table of Contents 目录 13 June 2017 今晨焦点证券研究报告 Equity Research Report Morning Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 Company Name 公司名称 PICC P&C 中国财险 HK and China Gas Code 代码 02328 HK 02328 HK 00003 HK Title 标题 Non-auto Underwriting Loss in FY16, But Outlook Remains Positive, Maintain Accumulate 2016 财年非车险承保亏损, 但是展望依旧正面, 维持 收集 Leading Gas Distributor in Hong Kong and Mainland China TP 目标价 Chg 变动 评级 Chg 变动 EPS Est. Change? 盈利预测 是否改变 HK$15.25 Accumulate -- Y HK$15.25 收集 -- 是 HK$17.97 -- Buy -- N 中华煤气 00003 HK 香港和大陆领先的燃气分销商 HK$17.97 -- 买入 -- 否 Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附 : 行业和公司焦点, 最新报告摘要中文版 HSI Performance HSCEI Performance 29,000 16,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16 Mar/17 Jun/17 Source: Bloomberg 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16 Mar/17 Jun/17 Source: Bloomberg See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 5
Morning Industry and Company Focus Latest Reports PICC P&C (02328 HK):Non-auto Underwriting Loss in FY16, But Outlook Remains Positive, Maintain Accumulate : Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$15.25 Analyst: Wiley Huang Report Date: 2017-06-12 Summary PICC P&C s 1Q17 net profit increased 8.8% yoy to RMB4,621 million. Looking at 2016 results, shareholders profit was RMB18,020 million, down 17.5% yoy. Despite that combined ratio increased to 98.1%, the consolidation of profit from Hua Xia Bank alleviated the drop. Underwriting profit dropped 41.6% yoy to RMB5,024 million due to higher disaster claims in 2H16 in agriculture and commercial property product lines. Net realised and unrealised gains dropped 81.5% in 2016 as a result of the fluctuation in the capital market. We expect premium growth of motor insurance to slow down as new car sales are cooling down. The combined ratio should remain stable after a 0.5 ppt decrease triggered by pricing reform. We believe the combined ratio has reached a balanced level, where further increases in expense ratio should be offset by potential decreases in loss ratio. We set target price at HKD15.25 per share and maintain investment rating of Accumulate. Our investment thesis includes: 1/ benefit from commercial motor pricing reform as market leader and 2/ great opportunities for liability and agricultural insurance. HK and China Gas (00003 HK): Leading Gas Distributor in Hong Kong and Mainland China : Buy 6-18m TP: HK$17.97 Analyst: Kevin Guo Report Date: 2017-06-12 Summary The golden age of gas in China is expected to persist. The need to adjust energy consumption structure, sufficient gas supply, nearly completed pipeline systems and relatively low price will support growth of the gas market. The Hong Kong and China Gas Company ( HK and China Gas or the Company ) is one of the largest energy suppliers in Hong Kong and is a leading energy supplier in the greater China region. The Company operates 131 city gas projects in 23 provinces, with a total of about 23 million customers at the end of 2016. We expect the total sale of piped natural gas of the Company to grow by 6.0%, 7.5% and 7.5% from 2017-2019, respectively. We expect total revenue of the Company to increase by 10.6%, 7.0% and 6.9% from 2017-2019, respectively. The Hong Kong market is expected to contribute stable profit while the mainland China market is expected to increase steadily. The EPS of the Company is expected to increase by 3.3%, 6.7% and 7.8% to HK$ 0.596, HK$ 0.636 and HK$ 0.685 in 2017-2019, respectively. Initiate coverage with Buy rating and TP of HK$ 17.97. The Company is benefitting from fast growth of gas consumption in mainland China and also enjoys stable profitability in the Hong Kong gas market. See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 5
Morning Chinese Translation 中文翻译 行业和公司焦点 最新报告 中国财险 (02328 HK):2016 财年非车险承保亏损, 但是展望依旧正面, 维持 收集 评级 : 收集 6-18m 目标价 : HK$15.25 分析员 : 黄重钧报告日期 : 2017-06-12 报告摘要 中国财险 2017 年 1 季度净利润同比增长 8.8% 至人民币 46.21 亿元 回顾 2016 年业绩, 股东净利为人民币 180.20 亿元, 同比下降 17.5% 尽管综合成本率上升至 98.1%, 但是华夏银行的利润并表减轻了下跌的幅度 由于受到农业保险和企业财产保险 2016 年下半年灾害赔偿的影响, 承保利润同比下跌 41.6% 至人民币 50.24 亿元 另外由于资本市场的波动, 公司 2016 年已 / 未实现投资收益同比大跌 81.5% 我们认为车险保费增速将伴随着新车销售火热行情的冷却而放缓 受费率改革影响下跌 0.5 个百分点后, 综合成本率将保持稳定 我们相信综合成本率已经达到一个平衡阶段, 因为成本率的进一步上升将会被赔付率的潜在下行所抵消 我们将目标价定为 15.25 港元并维持 收集 的投资评级 我们的投资逻辑为 :1/ 作为市场领导者, 将受益于商业车险费率改革,;2/ 责任保险和农业保险的巨大发展机会 中华煤气 (00003 HK): 香港和大陆领先的燃气分销商 评级 : 买入 6-18m 目标价 : HK$17.97 分析员 : 郭勇 报告日期 : 2017-06-12 报告摘要 中国天然气的黄金时代将持续 调整能源结构的需要, 充足的天然气供应, 完善的天然气管网和较低的气价将支撑天然气市场的增长 香港中华煤气是香港最大的能源供应商之一, 并且是大中华地区领先的能源供应商 截至 2016 年底, 公司在 23 个省份运营 131 个城市燃气项目, 拥有约 2,300 万客户 我们预计公司管道天然气销量在 2017-2019 年将分别增长 6.0%, 7.5% 和 7.5% 我们预计公司收入在 2017-2019 年将分别增长 10.6%, 7.0% 和 6.9% 香港市场预计将贡献稳定的盈利, 而中国大陆市场将稳定增长 我们预计公司 2017-2019 年的每股净利分别增长 3.3%, 6.7% 和 7.8% 达到港币 0.596 元 0.636 元和 0.685 元 首次覆盖目标价为 17.97 港元, 投资评级为 买入 公司受益于中国大陆天然气消费的快速增长, 同时享有香港燃气市场的稳定盈利能力 See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 5
Morning Research Department 研究部 Grace Liu 刘谷 Head of Research, Market Strategy, Petrochemicals 主管, 市场策略 石化 liugu@gtjas.com (852) 2509 7516 Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费 ( 酒店 ) 博彩 noah.hudson@gtjas.com (86755) 23976684 Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection, Infrastructure 环保 基建 gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2616 Ray Zhao 赵睿 Conglomerate, E-commerce 综合 电子商务 zhaorui@gtjas.com (86755) 23976755 Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 square.chui@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2629 Kevin Guo 郭勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料 燃气 kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 23976671 Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunications, Internet 电信 互联网 ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2603 Richard Cao 曹柱 Banking 银行 caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 23976870 Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源 电力设备 junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7592 Andrew Song 宋涛 Consumer (Retailing), Home Appliances 消费 ( 零售 ) 家电 andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5313 Van Liu 刘斐凡 Property 房地产 liufeifan@gtjas.com (86755) 23976672 Sean Xiang 向宇豪 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械 建材 xiangyuhao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976725 Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费 ( 服装 ) hongxueyu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976722 Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Macroeconomics, Property 宏观 房地产 johnny.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5348 Toliver Ma 马守彰 Aviation, Automobiles & Components 航空 汽车 toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5317 Spencer Fan 范明 Shipping & Logistics, Ports, 航运物流 港口 fanming@gtjas.com (86755) 23976686 Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Consumer (Food & Beverage, Household Products) 消费 ( 食品饮料 日用品 ) wuyuyang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976680 Gary Ching 程嘉伟 Market Strategy 市场策略 gary.ching@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2665 Kay Mai 麦梓琪 Health care 医药 maiziqi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976685 David Liu 刘静骁 Petrochemicals 石化 david.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5441 Jake Wang 汪昌江 Coal, Electricity 煤炭 电力 wangchangjiang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976675 Wiley Huang 黄重钧 Research Assistant 研究助理 wiley.huang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5409 Danny Law 罗沛达 Research Assistant 研究助理 danny.law@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7768 Gary Yang 杨光 Research Assistant 研究助理 gary.yang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2642 Danny Deng 邓协 Research Assistant 研究助理 danny.deng@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5464 Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理 翻译员 zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com (86755) 23976681 Penny Pan 潘凌蕾 Secretary, Translator 秘书 翻译员 penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2632 See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 5
Morning Company Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) Except for Shenzhen International Holdings Limited (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (02969 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788 HK), Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886 HK), Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK), GFI MSCI A I-R (CNY) (83156 HK),GFI MSCI A I(03156 HK), China Minsheng Banking-H shares (01988 HK) and CAM SCSMALLCAP(03157 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with Modern Land (01107 HK) / China Aoyuan Property (03883 HK) / Evergrande Real Estate (03333 HK) / GOME Electrical Appliances (00493 HK) / Dongjiang Environmental- H shares (00895 HK) / Xiao Nan Guo Restaurants (03666 HK) / Sundart Holdings Ltd. (01568 HK) / China Singyes Solar Technologies (00750 HK) / China Wood Optimization (01885 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement- H shares (00914 HK) / 361 Degrees (01361 HK) / Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK) / Huaneng Renewables- H shares (00958 HK) / Huaneng Power- H shares (00902 HK) / AviChina Industry & Technology- H shares (02357 HK) / Sinotruk (03808 HK) / Tianyun International (06836 HK) / Huishang Bank- H shares (03698 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2017 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 5