Page 1 06 05/11/19 05/12/28 06/04/03 06/07/10 07 06/12/29 08 07/12/15 12 8, (03 ) 0755-82130833 Emailfangyan@guosen.com.cn 000540 15.05 --18.60 RMB 10.18 RMB, 3 15.05 18.60 () 57, 13.68 / 10%NAV 15.05 / PEG 18.6 15.05 18.60 09 EPS PE 7.2 8.9 48%83% 38% 38.14% 9.53 30 / 9000 3 1800 09-11 10% 7 311 M 2 4 30 / 4 34 08--10 3.36 8.73 13.57 136%4.17 EPS 0.81 2.1 3.26 PE 12.6 4.8 2.9 15 3000 / M 2 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E () 619 1,642 2,585 4,357 (+/-%) 118% 165% 57% 69% () 103 336 874 1357 (+/-%) 918% 226% 160% 55%, 0.32 0.81 2.10 3.26 P/E 32.6 12.6 4.8 2.9 P/B 8.9 2.4 1.6 1.1 EV/EBITDA 25.9 15.1 7.4 5.7 () 373 PE/G 0.24 () 3,432 () 417 % 73.87% 3 (%) 269% % 27.61% 52 7.1/17.35 08-10% 136% 300 3,084, EPS 08 08/6/12 2008 06 13
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Page 4 RNAV PEPEG NAVPS 15.05 /48% RNAV 57 5 2# 2 7 310.74 4 30.47 2 38.14% 51.55%10.31% 0860% 9.53 9000 3 4 70%30%09-1133000 180/38.14%25% 22.81 1 () 304732 () 228084 () 110000 07 () 37307 570123 (,) 41681 (/) 13.68 A 10.18 % 34%, WACC=9.0% 07 57.01 13.68 1
Page 5 08 200 10% 15.05 2 () () (/) () 100% 93.24 71.10 5226.72 78738 100% 78.90 70.20 5526.52 82198 100% 14.98 21.60 5925.11 27121 2# 100% 0.78 3.85 5800.00 4731 60% 10.54 63.00 4614.53 61590 100% 46.62 63.02 3207.36 42823 100% 9.97 17.97 1978.00 7531 310.74 304732 1 3 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00% 10% 18.36 18.09 17.83 17.59 17.34 17.11 5% 16.19 15.92 15.66 15.42 15.17 14.94 0% 14.21 13.94 13.68 13.44 13.19 12.96-5% 12.42 12.15 11.89 11.65 11.40 11.17-10% 10.80 10.53 10.27 10.03 9.78 9.55-15% 9.34 9.07 8.81 8.57 8.32 8.09 60% 16.68 / 2 4 38% 50% 60% 80% 90% 100% 110 11.23 12.10 12.83 14.29 15.03 15.76 120 11.58 12.55 13.38 15.03 15.86 16.68 130 11.93 13.01 13.93 15.76 16.68 17.59 140 12.28 13.47 14.48 16.49 17.50 18.51 150 12.63 13.93 15.03 17.23 18.33 19.43 160 12.98 14.39 15.58 17.96 19.15 20.34 170 13.33 14.84 16.13 18.69 19.98 21.26 180 13.68 15.30 16.68 19.43 20.80 22.17 190 14.03 15.76 17.23 20.16 21.63 23.09 200 14.38 16.22 17.78 20.89 22.45 24.01
Page 6 16.20 18.60 /, 59% 83% PE PE 16.20 18.60 / 200 40 07 36 3.68 08 PE 17.5 10 21 08 EPS 0.81 20 PE 16.20 09 PE 7 5 10 PE 08/6/12 EPS P/E 07A 08E 09E 07A 08E 09E PB P/NAV A 17.35 0.70 0.84 1.35 24.61 20.56 12.85 4.07 1.45 17.95 1.37 1.20 1.80 19.65 14.96 9.97 1.92 0.60 15.07 1.21 1.36 2.15 24.82 11.08 7.01 1.55 0.79 8.40 0.68 0.50 0.67 28.54 16.80 12.60 1.92 0.60 9.87 1.15 1.05 1.60 17.16 9.40 6.17 0.98 0.76 12.60 1.15 0.95 1.43 28.37 13.26 8.81 2.02 0.55 10.09 0.85 0.95 1.35 11.90 10.62 7.47 2.51 0.67 6.82 0.60 0.88 1.55 11.28 7.79 4.40 1.70 0.49 5.99 0.74 0.75 1.15 12.12 7.95 5.22 1.06 0.37 9.36 0.87 0.76 1.07 32.44 12.28 8.77 1.74 0.67 21.09 12.47 8.33 1.95 0.69 PEG 18.60 /, PEG 18.6 / 136% 120% PEG 0.28 0.5 PEG 07 PE 60 18.60 15.05 18.60 09 EPS PE 7.2 8.9 48%83%
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Page 8 61.7% 2007 12 23.26 11.31 7.58 9.1,, 2007 3000 07 30 24 100 8 2007 52% 2006 1.5 1 2 10% 1980 1984 1993 3 3021.80 400 1993 12 1000 1860 140 1994 1 8 1994 2 A 1998 2000 11 2006 9 4
Page 9 1.099 07 4 6 33.65 07 4 12 44 44 31,250,424 1.41 43.21%08 1 31 2008 3 3 22 3,061,425 1.44 44.14, 2007 74.8% 6(070331) (%) 141,206,424 43.21 A 24,280,866 7.43 A 11,583,228 3.54 A 8,040,000 2.46 A 4,690,000 1.44 A 4,538,104 1.39 A 4,213,954 1.29 A 4,213,954 1.29 A 3,108,582 0.95 A 2,527,500 0.77 A 208,402,612 63.77 28 30 500 100 10%
Page 10 7 34 5 2# 2 7 310.74 4 7 3
Page 11 : 2#
Page 12 3-4 34 8 38% 21 38.14% 51.55% 10.31% 9.53
Page 13 9000 2009-2011 3 1800 600 9 38% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 140 19.82 31.18 36.38 41.58 46.78 51.97 150 21.62 34.00 39.68 45.36 51.03 56.70 160 23.43 36.85 43.00 49.14 55.28 61.42 170 25.22 39.69 46.31 52.92 59.53 66.15 180 27.03 42.52 49.61 56.70 63.79 70.87 190 28.83 45.36 52.92 60.48 68.04 75.60 200 30.63 48.20 56.23 64.26 72.29 80.32 210 32.43 51.03 59.54 68.04 76.54 85.05 220 34.24 53.86 62.84 71.82 80.80 89.77 230 36.04 56.70 66.15 75.60 85.05 94.50 1 33 78 28 50 200 2008 2014 93 70-80 2 1000
Page 14 1 200 2 311 2000 3 100 4,, 5 20
Page 15 080910 3.36 9.1 14.29 145% 120% 4 3 5 3 EPS ROE,04\05 06-08 1 3 2 95% 3 09-11 3000 09 3000 1200 2010 3000 1500 2011 3000 4 10% 25% 5 10 : 2008 2009 2010 2011 7,513 150,743 194,060 278,708 631,024 75,752 117,646 220,000 288,597 701,995 95,684 120,359 216,043 2# 38,500 38,500 309,288 320,670 629,958 93,132 123,630 136,800 276,600 630,162 26,268 35,330 39,100 79,000 179,698 378,348 547,708 937,748 1,243,575 3,107,379 08-10 100% 08--10 3.36 8.73 13.57 136%4.17 EPS 0.81
Page 16 2.10 3.26 PE 12.6 4.8 2.9 5% 5% PE 11 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 () 28471 61950 167347 271717 471591 +/-% -5.0% 117.6% 170.1% 62.4% 73.6% () 1012 10299 34259 91834 146858 +/-% -1.06 9.18 232.6% 168.1% 59.9% ROE 6.3% 27.6% 19.8% 36.1% 39.4% EPS P/E 0.03 331.96 0.32 32.62 0.82 12.39 2.20 4.55 3.52 2.72 () 28471 61950 164249 258476 435684 +/-% -5.0% 117.6% 165.1% 57.4% 68.6% () 1012 10299 33625 87358 135677 +/-% -105.6% 917.6% 226.5% 159.8% 55.3% ROE 6.3% 27.6% 19.4% 34.4% 36.4% EPS P/E 0.03 331.96 0.32 32.62 0.81 12.62 2.10 4.78 3.26 2.95 () 28471 61950 159293 237933 382023 +/-% -5.0% 117.6% 157.1% 49.4% 60.6% () 1012 10299 32611 80415 118966 + /-% -1.06 9.18 216.6% 146.6% 47.9% ROE 6.3% 27.6% 18.8% 31.6% 32.0% EPS 0.03 0.32 0.78 1.93 2.85 P/E 331.96 32.62 13.01 5.19 3.36 32681 32681 41681 41681 41681 08-10EPS 1 2
Page 17 1 2008-2010 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 28471 61950 164249 258476 435684 11735 21546 65057 106880 173620 762 0 0 0 0 2676 2279 8212 11631 17427 3886 2644 5891 5990 6015 3729 143 4800 5000 6000 2207 16728 45934 112887 180018 223 248 0 25230 28834 0 0 0 0 0 77 168 0 0 0 74 124 1100 1200 1500 2432 16773 44834 108068 171291 1012 10299 33625 87358 135677 YOY% -105.6% 917.6% 226.5% 159.8% 55.3% EPS 0.03 0.32 0.81 2.10 3.26 PE 332.0 32.6 12.6 4.8 2.9 32681 32681 41681 41681 41681 08-10EPS
Page 18 6 20% 6 10%-20% 6 10% 6 10% 6 10% 6 5%-10 6 5% 6 5%
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