20027 總評 : 本期情勢整體而言 : 中共於 7 8 月間開始 北戴河 會議, 研議修改黨章 完善政治報告內容 並就高層人事變動尋求黨內共識, 係中共召開 十六大 最後準備階段 大陸外貿 外資移入及經濟成長趨勢明顯, 但通貨緊縮陰影仍在, 已開始調整貨幣政策目標, 以維持消費水準 對外關係上 : 因應美 俄關係調整, 並為維繫高層權力結構變動前夕外部局勢穩定, 近期中共 大國外交 作為有 : 加強 上海合作組織 功能 與俄羅斯進行聯合軍事演習 持續推動與東協國家貿易及其它經濟合作關係 適時調停印 巴核戰危機, 並與美恢復軍事交流 對臺工作方面 : 中共操作我方民間團體訪問大陸之時機, 涉臺系統由錢其琛 陳雲林 汪道涵等出面接待, 對兩岸經貿 三通 協商 高層互訪等議題, 採柔性攻勢試圖瓦解我方心防 在中共高層權力交接之際, 其對臺工作仍持續保持靈活與穩定 1
政治 : 5 1 8 1 24 31 57 63 62 浙江 : 張德江 福建 : 宋德福 廣東 : 李長春 海南 : 白克明 山西 : 田成平 陝西 : 李建國 2000 511 GDP 0.6% 2002.7.22001 959 6.56% 2002.7.7 3 6,860 2,366 6.6 86 2002.5 8,940 80% 20% 2002.3.18 0.45 0.4 2002.7.7 2
經濟 : GDP45,536 7.8%1-3 7.6%4-6 14,462 21.5% 6.4 8.0% CPI 0.8% 1-6 2,707 12.3% 1,421 14.1% 1,287 10.4% 134 246 18.7%6 2 169,601.24 14.68% 63,144 1 12.76% 0 15,097.35 8.28%6 81,712 17.4% 7 5 21 2002.6.28 6 M2 14 1 2002.6.4 社會 : 5 9 45,000 1 6,000 4,000 3
6 16 5 31 2001 7 6 6 17 6 497 6,942 543 59 111 5 128 3,232 330 9 文化 : 74 14,900 14,098 5 5 15 4
6 18 500 BBC 2002.5.13 13 FM365 TOM 9 軍事 : 6 7 1,600 700 3 1 5 16 5
65 65 61 71 70 70 72 66 61 61 61 62 63 7 63 60 64 65 62 63 2001 2002.6.313 62 64 JH-10 SD10 F10 4 50 3 15 42 5,400 2 21 2002.6.12 5 5 10 6
5 8 636 4 5 8 5 6 3 6 5 15 4 3 6 -- -- 6 外交 : 5 6 5 22 6 7
5 25-28 5 1 3 1 3 1 8 5 6 2000 12 2000 3 2000 6 6 6 7 5 -- 5 14 6 6 7 --- -- TNC-- 2002 -- 5 2002 700 6 5 5 6 5 14 20 3 6 19 8
港澳 : 7 1 3 11 7 1 2002 6 2 2007 5 6 3 5 7.4% 1981 2002 10 1 4.42% 1.64% 1.58% 7 6 2 6 13 20 5 5 28 2,493 2.7 911 對臺政策 : 5 21 9
1 22 6 7 2002.7.7 2002.7.8 2002.5.29 5 4 5 11 5 10 WHA 6 21 10
4 78 6 2002 4 6 (910 ) 11
( 2002.6pp.32-35) ( 2002.6.pp.28-30) ( 2002.4pp.22-24) 5 31 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ( 2002.5.31) 12
( ) ( 2002.5.31p.A26) ( 2002.6.pp.34-35) 3 (CNN2002.5.28) 1. 2. ( 2002.7.14p.B14) 13
(2002.5.15p.A17)4 5 ( 2002.5.5p.A15) (CNN2002.5.8) (Melinda Liu The Man in Jiang s Shadow Newsweek2002.5.6pp.16-19Murray Scot Tanne The Successor s Dilemma Newsweek2002.5.6) ( ) ( 2002.3.27) (4 ) ( 2002.4.17) 6 6 57 ( 63 ) 55 ( ( 63 ) 45 ) 1. 2. 14
3. 4. ( 2002.4.16-5.15pp.14-16)5. ( 2002.6.19) (10% 80 71 ) 30 2,000 200 150 ( 2002.5.66.6) 5 18 ( 8 3 7 ) ( 2002.5.22) ( 5% ) ( ) ( 2002.6.24p.24)4 ( ) 15
3 ( 2002.5) ( 2002.5) ( 2002.4pp.22-24) 4 3 ( 3 2002.5.13-19pp.24-26) 5 4 ( 2002.6 pp.32-35) ( 2002.6.9) 16
4 ( 2002.6.14)6 2002 2005 ( ) ( 2002.6.12) 5 ( 2002.6.19) 3 ( 2002.3 p.22-24) ( ) ( 2002.6.pp.12-14) 624 ( ) ( 2002.6.24p.1) 5 ( 2002.5.27p.24)6 7 Straits Times2002.6.4p.1 17
4 (80) 3 ( 2002.7.2) 70 ( 70) (Susan V. Lawrence Make Room at the Top Far Eastern Economic Review2002.4.28) (4 5 2002.4.29) 2002.4.pp.8-9 (2002.6.17p.24) ( 2002.5.6p.6 ) Changes Time2002.4.16) (Andrew Nathan Big Country, Small ( ) 7 ( 18
)80 8 3 4 (2002.5.29p.14)5 ( 2002.4.28) ( ) (2002.5.6p.B16)6 (Financial Times2002.7.4) 6 ( ) ( 2002.6.25p.A18) (CNN2002.7.3) ( )( 70 ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 3 19
( ) ( 2002.4p.14) ( 2002.6.3) (CNN2002.5.14) ( ) 4 ( 2002.5) 4 ( 20002.5pp.16-18)4 25 5 6 30 3 ( 2002.6.22) ( 2002.2P.2)4 29 17 ( )4 2000 50 140 450 20
( 20002.5pp.16-18) ( 2002.5.6-12pp.20-21) ( 2002.6.21) (CNN2002.5.14) 50 324 17 9,000 46 27 (4 3.6 1,200 1 5,000 7 2002.6.20) 4 4 3 ( 680 2,000 Straits Times2002.5.15) (3 4 ) (2002.7) 21
( 2002.5pp.24-26) 2 (CNN2002.5.14) 3 4 9 50 ( 2002.7) 4 4 ( 2002.6.pp.34-35) 4 (2002.4.23) 46 15 5 13 (CNN2002.5.14) ( 0.45 0.2 0.3 2002.5.12) 22
7.6 1-5 CPI 0.8 5 CPI 1.1 1-5 13.2 5 FDI 12.38 14.9 1.4 6.6 15 4,000 15 2002 7.6 1 2001 7.3 9.9 WTO 23
2002 7.6 7.3 1-5 CPI 0.8 5 CPI 1.1 2 1-5 5 9.3 24
10.1 5 8 400 17.6 1 2001 CPI 2001 1-3 2001 1-6 2001 1-9 2001 1-12 2002 1-3 0.7 1.1 1 0.7-0.6 5 5 12.9 10.9 2 3 5 5 25.8 9.5 16.3 3 1 20014 25
5 1996 10 7.5 6.8 1996 1-5 12.1 13.2 4 10 2002.5.1711 2 20014 5 FDI 12.38 2 14.9 10 2002.6.1310 WTO 26
2002.5.2111 5,000 7 5,000 5 GDP 100 GDP 100 GDP 3 GDP 15 Nicolas Lardy GDP 100 2002.7.211 WTO 27
6 4 GDP 140 130 6 6.6 1.4 6.6 3 5 2,800 5,325 7 70-80 742 288 7 3,000 900 15 15 28
1,700-1,800 10 2 2,000 15 15-20 2002.3.27p.10 4,000 1 1,200 1979 0.311988 0.381994 0.4341997 0.455 10 10 1990 29 1995 38 1986 0.19 1994 0.37 11.2 34 1986 0.31 1994 0.41 3.7 7.9 29
8 2002 2 2002 1-3 GDP 21,020 7.6 6,494 10.9 CPI =100 RPI =100-0.6 10,035 8.4 4,672 19.6 1,221 647 574 73 7.7 9.9 5.2 30
FDI 101.1 178.6 2,276.1 8.2774 27.5 11.4 1. 81 15 2. 2002.6.13 3. 2002.6.20 4. 2002.6.12 5. 2002.5.29 6. Ching Cheong"China s looming debt time bomb" Straits Times2002 5.21 7. 8. 31
11 16 16 320 120 3.6 10 5 2 1,400 25 1 40 1 0.5 5 4 1982 2 620 60 770 1 179 85 1-2 15 3 2,000 100 2020 4,000 4,015 2,468 32
Kenneth Lieberthal RAND 5 2002.6.711 2001 47.5 31 15.5 22 11 26 48 29 162002 4 14-15 22 3 9 19 5 10 14 APEC 452002 4 14-15 16 2002 2 3 16 31 320 120 10 33
2002 4 19 3 10 20,000 4 2002 5 17 200 2002 5 103 1 1,500 3 6 3 2002 5 103 1,000 2002 4 73 1,000 4 7 2002 4 72 4 8 1,000 2002 4 72 4 24 300 2002.4.25 6 10 500 3 1592 2002.6.10 3 1,000 2002 4 74 3 1,000 1521 2002.3.31 4 200 1532 2002.4.11 34
3.6 56 10 2002.6.18 20 1593 2002.6.11 4,789 2002.4.30 4 2,000 2002.4.30 11 4,650 1,750 1 5,000 5 2 1,400 2002.6.18 5 2 2002 4 26-27 10 1.5 510 6 35 14 23 18 12 26.5 1 342002 4 18 5 1 25 1 4 1 40 1 2002 4 35
18 25 40 0.43 0.29 0.5 0.45 2002 5 17 76 2002.4.23 5 4 5 4 7-8 4 2 500 2,000 2002 5 19 1 3,500 2 2-3 50 1 4 2002 5 20 2 5 900 2 7 6,000 80 2 8 2,000 2002 5 19 36
6 17 24 13 2002.6.1811 2,200 200 3 2 13-14 2 2002.6.2011 6 20 111 4 2002.6.2214 6 14 2 7 10 1,000 5,000 2004 3 2002.6.1711 8,409 3,540 300 290 62 1 2002.6.10 10 3 1 2002.5.2 1982 20,000 1,000 20 2002.4.12 4,000 50 37
120 7 5 1543 2002.4.22 2002.6.2611 3 6 2002.6.13 25 25 5,000 5 2 2002.6.9 2002.6.18 4 18 3 3-6 4 161 2002 5 132 300 2002 5 132 50 50 2002.6.18 4 2002 4 25 4 38
2002.6.711 620 49 11 4,000 4 41 2002 6 78 2001 4 2002.6.6 2002 6 78 1 60 5 670 3 1 2002 6 78 1 6 12 5 3,000 205 356 2002.6.12 6 6 10 1994 2002.6.2214 6 770 260 1 179 39
18 68 3,000 6 32 8,000 11 2002.6.27 6 14 4 4,000 10 2002.6.1111 3,436 1990 1,000 2002.5.1 1-2 2002.6.6 85 20 10-12 40 68 9.7 7.2 8 20-29 53.6 2002.4.1211 10 50 85 20 700 3 1 2002.5.28 4,620-7,700 40
2002.6.111 100 11 15 3 2,000 100 2002.6.211 20 5,000 5-10 80 2002.5.30 2000 116.8100 103 107 2002.5.1411 144100 2002.6.2211 2020 2,9003,300 1534 4,000 2002.6.20 41
200 10 1 8 2002.6.1811 4,015 2,468 2002.5.29 2,468 BBC2002.4.10 2002.4.17 2002 42
2002.5.20 2002.5.13 128 3 2,320 2002.6.75 2002.5.31 2002.5.21 34 32 2002.4.4 76 1965 1983 2002.4.5 1988 5 9 1991 2011 43
2002.4.5 2002.4.5 2002.4.4 2000 2001 34 3 2002.4.23 9 2002.5.23 240 4 500 2002.5.24 44
2002 3 1999 105 145 30 212 250 2002.4.5 3 3 2 12 7 65 2002.5.23 32.37 27.67 12.13 45
6 1,000 3,000 2002.3.29 2 3 2 2002.3.26 2 2 2 2002.4.16 5 3 2002.3.30 62 4 60 1 2002.6.21 46
2 (http://www.cca.gov.tw/coffee/author/sun/a.html) (hypertext literature) hyperlink interactive writing ( http://udnnews.com/special_issue/culture/netlit/terms.htm) 1998 < > 1969 1998 3 1999 11 20 2000 5 (http://lovepost.gigigaga.com/love_about.asp,anvit)2001 47
3 ( http://edu.sina.com.cn2000/10/17 ) ( ) ( 45 ) ( ) SIEG http://www.21gbook.com/ping/a9.htm ; 2002.6.7wise news 2002.6.28wise news 5 ( 2002.5.7wise news ) 48
2002 3 2002 2 1 3 3 30 12 12 10 (2002.5.27) 6 1 (2002.5.29) 20 5 7 1 700 49
2002 7 1 700 85 90 ( 2002.5.27) 4 4... 3 28 2002.4.15 50
7 3 2010 8 AA-12 1-12 -15-11Mod2 Harpy PT-6A 6 1 54 7 61 7 1 2002.6.313 1989 7 64 2002.5.2511 51
3 2010 http://tw.news.yahoo.com/2002/04/25/twoshore/cna/3200904.html 2002.4.147 8 Klubs 636 16 5 2007 12 2 2002.6.103 7 2002.6.132 6 2Su-30 AA-12(R-77) (AIM-120) http://asp.washtimes.com/20020701-95731060 129 AA-12-122002.6.2613 515 1 1D 1 200 2002.5.1611-12 26,000 2002.5.316 S-300PMU1 15 15 3 1 12 6 2002.6.23 52
13-11M-11Mod2 300 500 (GPS) 300 2002.6.24 4 Harpy 2002.7.32 PT-6A -10-8 http://tw.news.yahoo.com/2002/05/05/international/cna/3221372.html 2002.6.284 10 6 2002.5.182 1 1 54 1 1998 54 127 200012 Yihong Changpp. 1-2 1 7 1939 27 1941 1940 26 53
1941 1 1940 1940 12 1939 2: ) ( Il-76 10 1990-1992 Mi-17 60 1990-1997 Su-27 1,000+710+(?)+2,500 26+22+24+200 1991,1995,1998- Su-27UBK 980 28 1999 877EKM633 700+1,600 2+2+8 1994,2002 S-300PMS-300PMU(Sa-10) 3+7, 144 +(?) 1992,1995,1998 Tor-M1(Sa-15) 4 1995,1998,2000 956E956EM 800+1,000+(?) 2+2+(2?) 1996,2002 2S23Nona-SVK 45 1997 *A-50 250-1,000 1(3 ) 1996 Su-30 2,000+(1,800) 40+40 1999,2001 Il-78 4 2002 *A-50 Phalcon Il-76 20007 1.Chang, Yihong, The PLA s Million-man Swim Potential, China Brief, 2002.4.25, http://china.jamestown.org/pubs/view/cwe_002_009_004.htm. 54
4 6 4 4 6 8 5 6 55
2002 3 5 6 4 6 18 21 (4 2 9 ) ) ) (4 15 26 (5 14 20 (4 8 22 ) (4 25 28 ) () 911 ( ) ( 10 ) (South China Morning Post2002.4.16) ( 2002.4.8p.13) ( 2002.4.13) ( 2002.4.15p.13) 3 5 ( 2002.4.16p.11) 56
() ( 2002.4.21) ( 2002.4.21) ( 2002.4.15) () ( 2002.4.21) ( 2002.4.22) ( 2002.4.23) ( 2002.5.14) 3,000 ( 2002.5.15) () 2001 7,000 2010 1 57
( 2002.4.22) ( 2002.4.21) () ( 2002.4.19) 4 23 5 2 () 5 1 5,000 ( 2002.4.25 p.13) 10 58
() ( 2002.5.6p.2) 3 () 10 ( 3 ) ( ) ( 2002.6.28)6 ( 6 20 21 ) 5 1 59
5 7 ( 2002.5.9p.5) (Peter Rodman)6 25 27 ( 2002.6.27p.13) ( 2002.6.28p.5) 3 5 4 3 ( 2002.5.5p.13) 5 15 (There is no intention or no desire to separate Taiwan from the mainland or to make an independent Taiwan) 5 29 ( 2002.5.31p.13) 1 ( 2002.5.4) 5 6 ( 2002.5.8p.11) 6 10 (the United States takes our responsibilities under the Taiwan Relations Act veryvery seriously) ( 60
2002.7.2p.3) AA12 AIM-120 ( 2002.7.3p.13) 5 25 5 28 8 () 5 31 6 2 ( 10 40) ( 2002.6.3) 5 31 ( 2002.6.1 p.13) ( 2002.5.29) () 61
( 2002.6.7) ( 2002.6.7) 4 8 (Kilo 636MK) Klub 16 ( 2002.6.27p.5) 8 (2002.7.1p.13) () 6 27 ( 2002.6.29p.14) 4 5 6 4 (TNC) 2002 62
() 5 13 ( ) ( 2002.5.16p.13) 5 28 ( 2002.5.28) ( 2002.5.30p.11) 6 7 ( 2002.6.8p.13) 3 1 2 3 6 ( 2002.6.7) 6 ( ) ( )3 ( 63
2002.6.7) () 4 14 16 (2001)11 10 (2002.5.15p.11) ( 2002.5.16p.10) (TNC) 2002 ( 2002.5.14) 3 5 () 5 5 8 3 ( 2002.5.9p.13) ( 2002.5.11p.11) 5 ( 2002.5.21) 5 64
6 19 ( 2002.6.19) () 5 13 ( 2002.6.15p.12) 6 19 6 23 23 (2002.6.24) 6 4 () (CICA) 6 4 65
16 ( 2002.6.5p.13) ( 2002.6.4) ( 2002.6.9) ( 2002.6.8p.13) ( )(Times online2002.6.5) () 6 18 21 ( 2002.6.20) ( 2002.6.25) 2002 4.2-4 20 4.2-9 ( 66
2002.4.3p.11) 4.7-3 4.7-12 4.8-22 5 5 4.8-4.9-19 4.11-12 4.12-13 4.13-20. 4.14-15 4.15-26 3 3 4.19-22 4.22-. 4.22-23 15 246 ( 2002.4.24) 4.23-5.3 4.23-4.25-26 4.26-30 ( 2002.4.26p.11) 4.26-6 4.29-30 5.6-15 5.6-5.6-10 5.6-10 5.7-3 67
( 2002.5.9) 5.8-12 5.9-11 5.10-5.13-5.13-19 5.14-16 - - ( 2002.5.16p.10) 5.14-20 5.16-21 5.16-31 4 5.16-19 5.16- (2002.5.20 p.112002.5.23p.11) 5.18-30 3 5.18-19 5.21-23 2 5.22-23 - 5.23-6 5 27 ( 2002.5.28 5.23-5.26- APEC 2002 5.26-6.2 5.26-6.1 5.28 68
5.28- ( 2002.5.31) ( 2002.6.8) 5.29-6.1 5.29-31 ( 2002.5.31 6.1-19 4 6.2-7 6.2-6.3-18 5 6.3-18 4 6 4 ( 2002.6.4) 4 6.4-6.8-3 6.8-6.10-13 5 6.10-4 6.10-6.11-6.14-6.16-21 6.18-19 6.18-21 6.19-6.20-21 2 ( 2002.6.23p.13) 6.22-5 6.22-69
3 ( 2002.6.27) 6.22-6.23-25 6.23-27 6.24-26 6.25-6.25- ( ) ( 2002.6.28) 6.25-6.26-28 1,000 6.28-30 6.28-6.28-6.28-911 6.30- : 7.2-11 7 2 2010 7.2-19 2010 4 7.9-15 4.10-12. 2002 4.18-4.22-23 4.23-. 4.24-3 70
4.28- ( 2002.5.17p.2) 5.6-5.11-29 5.11-18 5.13-18 5.13-5.15-4 30,000 5.17-3 5.21-5.23-5.26-5.28-5 5.31-6.2 5.31-6.2 ( 2002.6.1) 5.31-3 6.1-6.1-21 6.3-8 6 6.3-3 3 (2002.6.6) 6.7-6.8-3 6.9-6.10-16 1949 6.13-17 6.18-6.20-6.22-71
6.22-26 198 6.23-6.23-28 10 6.24-6.25-27 6.25-30 6.26-28 6.30-7.8 7.1-72
4 9 3 16 3 11 2002.4.10 4 17 7 54 2002.4.18 2002.4.18 2002.4.18 2002.4.17 5 14 2002.5.15 5 30 9 34 19 1 2002.5.31 6 19 2002.6.20 73
6 21 6 24 917 1 5 14 14 2002.6.24 2002.6.24 2002.6.25 2002.6.25 91 74
2002.4.7 48 60 76 2007 1 1 2002.4.4 2002.6.20 2002 2001 2002 0.9 90 0.3 75
1.5 1 ( 2002.6.1) ( 2002.6.1) 5 7.4 80 (2002.6.1) 42 4 3.1 ( 2002.5.24) ( 2002.5.24) (2002.5.24) 5 160 ( 1,248 76
) ( ) 40 30 30 13 ( 2002.5.13 2002.5.13) 2002 30 10 (2002.4.29) IMF 5 2002 1.5 1 ( 2002.5.15) 77
4 1 2002.4.24 24 2002.4.25 2002.4.26 5 8 6 1 2002.5.9 2002.5.9 2002.4.26 5 2002.5.5 5 9 3 3 2002.5.9 2000 9 7 2000.10.25 78
2002.5.13 9 7 1 2002.5.27 3 18 4 5 9 4 2002.4.22 4,000 2002.4.30 91 3 360 139 38.7 90 42.4 4 50 90 64.8 2002.5.30 90 3 16 2002.5.16 50 7,200 79
12,500 2 85,000 70 145,000 2002.5.22 90 3,500 8 2002.5.13 5 20 60 2002.5.7 3 2,450 10 1992-2001 60 2002.4.21 121 2002.6.4 21 5 56 27 2002.4.20 80
90 2002.4.27 91 5 10 5 3 5 13 2002.5.14 5 24 2002.5.25 2002.5.25 6 7 2002.6.10 2002.6.10 2002.6.8 6 29 917 1 5 4 5 5 81
91 5 10 4 6 10 14 6 12 14 6 6 82
5 25 611 3 6 29 2002.4.3 83
4 29 30 2002.4.30 2002.4.29 2002.4.30 2002 2 4 6.2 2002 1 3 0.1 2002 52 7,300 6,000 2002.5.29 2001 14 2001 1,028 1,389 142.7 84
2000 125.3 14 2002.4.172002 1,357 2001 3 2002.5.28 2002 3 2001 6 2001 46 2002 3 11,317 4,776 2001 58 18 2002.5.7 2002 80% 2002.4.20 2002 6 2002.6.11 6 11 10 24 27 (MIF) 85
12 2002.6.12 13 2002 2002.6.5 2002 2002.6.14 7 2002 5 7 7 2002.5.30 2002.5.30 86
5 21 2002.6.6 4 22 25 4 91.4.1991.4.26 2002 2001 2002.6.7 2002 4 29 90 3 2002.5.1 87
2002.6.17 2002 4 7 2002.4.3 2002.5.3 88
5 29 : 5 89
7 6 90
1995 91
92