7 11 Vol. 7 No. 11 2016 11 Journal of Food Safety and Quality Nov., 2016 穆海振 1*, 张磊 2, 周伟东 1, 郑雷军 (1., 200030; 2., 200021) 2 摘要 : 目的 方法 1992~2006,, 结果, 结论 2007 2008, 关键词 : ; ; Establishment of early warning system for bacterial food poisoning based on meteorological factors MU Hai-Zhen 1*, ZHANG Lei 2, ZHOU Wei-Dong 1, ZHENG Lei-Jun 2 (1. Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai 200030, China; 2. Institute of Shanghai Food and Drug Supervision, Shanghai 200021, China) ABSTRACT: Objective To establish an early warning system for bacterial food poisoning based on meteorological conditions. Methods The conditional probability of food poisoning was analyzed at monthly and yearly scale within a given range of meteorological conditions based on the data of collective bacterial food poisoning and meteorological conditions (air temperature and relative humidity) during 1992~2006 in Shanghai. The impact of golden week on risk of food poisoning was also studied. Results An early warning system for bacterial food poisoning based on the air temperature and relative humidity was developed as well as the division standard of pre-warning level. Conclusion Through the comparison of model prediction value and reported food poisoning events in 2007 and 2008, the model shows a certain forecast ability for the incidence of poisoning during peak period of food poisoning events. KEY WORDS: bacterial food poisoning; meteorological conditions; early warning system 1 引言, 5, [1],,,, [2-5], [6-8] * 通讯作者 :,,, E-mail: muhz@hotmail.com *Corresponding author: MU Hai-Zhen, Master, Senior Engineer, Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai 200030, China. Email: muhz@hotmail.com
4660 7,, ( ) [8,9], [10], 10, 20 [11] 5 ~10, (6 7 ) 3 [12,13],, [14],, 1992~2006, 2 资料和方法 2.1 数据来源 1992~2008 ( ),,,, 2.2 方法 1992~2006 [13],, 2007 2008, 3 细菌性食物中毒概率预报模型的建立 3.1 预报对象和预报因子的确定,, 2, 3, (logistic regression),, 1 [13], 3.2 中毒事件发生概率的计算 ( 1), (1) P, 2 F, P, i j i j, i = 1.22; j = 1.15 Q i, j (1), F i,j 1992~2006 1 (T, :, ) t i 1 T<t i (t i, ) (H, : %, ) h i 1 H<h i (h i, ), ; Q i,j 1992~2006 (T) t i 1 T<t i (H) h i 1 H<h i,,, (2) 2 5 ( 3),, 3, P y Pij, Pi 1, j Pi 1, j Pij, 1 Pij, 1 Pyij,, i 1.22; j 1.15 (2) 5 3.3 月份修正概率的计算,,, 5 6,, 7 8, (1) (2) (Pm),,,,,,, ;, 2 3.4 假期附加项的确定 (1)
11, : 4661
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4664 7, 2 7 14 (Ph), 1992~2006, ( ), 14 18% 5%, 14 23% 15%, (Ph) 13% 8% 4 预报模型的初步验证, : Pf=Py+Pm+Ph (3) (3), Pf, Py Pm Ph 2007 2008, (3), ( 1 2), 2007 12, 1 25%, 8 15%; 2008 14, 4 25%, 7 15%, 1 2007 Fig. 1 Comparison of predictive probability value of the model and real situation of bacterial food poisoning in 2007 2 2008 Fig. 2 Comparison of predictive probability value of the model and real situation of bacterial food poisoning in 2008
11, : 4665 5 细菌性食物中毒预警系统的建立 5.1 预警等级划分, ( 4), Ⅰ,, Ⅰ 表 4 基于气象因素的细菌性食物中毒预警等级划分标准 Table 4 Division standard of pre-warning level for bacterial food poisoning based on the meteorological factors P(%) Ⅰ 25 Ⅱ 15~25 15 5.2 预警操作程序, 4 1 10 31 3, Ⅰ Ⅱ, Ⅰ Ⅱ ;,, ( ), 6 讨论,,,, 2010,,,, 参考文献 [1],,,. 1985-2011 [J]., 2013, 34(5): 218 222. Nie Y, Yi C, Tang XC, et al. Comparative analysis of food poisoning and emergency countermeasures in china from 1985 to 2011 [J]. Food Sci, 2013, 34(5): 218 222. [2],. 2005~2011 [J]., 2013, 40(19): 3569 3571. Zeng WJ, Wu LX. Analysis on status of food poisoning in China from 2005 to 2011 [J]. Mod Prev Med, 2013, 40(19): 3569 3571. [3],,,. 2006-2010 [J]., 2012, 11(4): 268 270. Yu X, Zhang Y, Wang SP, et al. Analysis on food poisoning in China from 2006 to 2010 and its prevention and control countermeasures[j]. Chin J Public Health Eng, 2012, 11(4): 268 270. [4],. 2004-2007 [J]., 2009, 24(6): 459 461. Jin LM, Li Q. Analysis of food-poisoning events in China from 2004 to 2007 [J]. Dis Surveill, 2009, 24(6): 459 461. [5],. [J]., 2007, 14(6): 426 428. Wang J, Liu XM. Analysis on the status of food borne disease in China [J]. Chin J Health Inspect, 2007, 14(6): 426 428. [6],. [J]., 2002, 12(4): 481. Chen JL, Liu MH. Trend of bacterial food poisoning events and suggestions on prevention [J]. Chin J Health Lab Technol, 2002, 12(4): 481. [7],,,. 2008-2010 [J]., 2012, 24(4): 387 390. Chu FJ, Ran L, Ma L, et al. Analysis on the reported food poisoning incidents in public health emergency events surveillance system in China, 2008-2010 [J]. Chin J Food Hyg, 2012, 24(4): 387 390. [8],,,. 1994-2003 766 [J]., 2006, 7(3): 180 184. Wang SJ, Yang J, Shen ZQ, et al. Analysis on 766 events of bacterial food poisoning in China from 1994 to 2003 [J]. Chin Prev Med, 2006, 7(3): 180 184. [9],,,. 2000-2007 [J]., 2008, 20(6): 514 517. Tian MS, Zheng LJ, Peng SJ, et al. Analysis and measures on collective food poisoning caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai Municipality during 2000 to 2007 [J]. Chin J Food Hyg, 2008, 20(6): 514 517. [10],,. [J]., 1998, 14(2): 67 67. Diao P, Zhang QP, Wei ZY. Study on the relationship between food poisoning events and meteorological factors in Wuhan [J]. Chin J Public Health, 1998, 14(2): 67 67. [11],. [J]., 2000, 2(1): 47 48. Hua XJ, Wang HT. Analysis on the relationship between air temperature and bacterial food poisoning [J]. Jiangsu Health Care, 2000, 2(1): 47 48. [12]. 1990~2000 [J]., 2003, 5(1): 17 20. Liu H. Analysis of the collective food poisoning events in Shanghai from 1990 to 2000 [J]. Chin J Nat Med, 2003, 5(1): 17 20.
4666 7 [13],,,. [J]., 2009, 21(7): 330 332. Zhang L, Mu HZ, Lu Y, et al. An analysis on the seasonal and climatic characteristic of bacterial food poisoning in Shanghai [J]. Shanghai J Prev Med, 2009, 21(7): 330 332. [14],. [J]., 2010, 39(6): 747 750. Duan HJ, Shao B. Pre-warning model of bacterial foodborne illness based on performance of principal component analysis combined with support vector machine [J]. J Hyg Res, 2010, 39(6): 747 750. 作者简介 ( 责任编辑 : 刘丹 ) 穆海振, 硕士, 高级工程师, 主要研究方向为应用气候学 E-mail: muhz@hotmail.com 水产品精深加工及水产安全 专题征稿函,,,,,,,,, (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) ; (5) ; (6), 2017 1,,, 2016 12 31 Email 投稿方式 : : www.chinafoodj.com E-mail: jfoodsq@126.com 食品安全质量检测学报 编辑部