2005 4 CRU 132 240 Codelco 1Falling Supercycle Supercycle
1 900000 Contained copper (tonnes 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 Air conditioners Wire & Cable Copper Alloy Semis Copper Semis 100000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 8% 3.5% 60 5-7% 2
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 10-year growth Annual growth 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995-6% -8% -10% 90 90 3
3.5% 4.5% 3.8% 4 20000 19500 19000 World refined production forecast 18500 18000 17500 17000 16500 16000 15500 2005 2006 2007 2008 325
325 28 500 60 / 15 BHP 1996 1997 5
12 350 Number of Discoveries 10 8 6 4 2 No of Discoveries 3-Month real 300 250 200 150 100 50 Real Copper Prices 0 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 0 2 4000 / Ingrid Sternby 4000 / 10 / 6
4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Stock- to- Consumption Ratio Weeks ( RHS) Copper Price US$/ t ( LHS) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1,000 Q1 84 Q3 87 Q1 91 Q3 94 Q1 98 Q3 01 Q1 05 2 80 7 5,000 4,500 4,000 Real cash copper Current US$/ t 3,500 3,000 Another +25%? 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Feb 80 Feb 85 Feb 90 Feb 95 Feb 00 Feb 05
8 450 400 China Copper Semis Production Kt (LHS) China Industrial Production, 6MMA Y/ Y Change (RHS) 20 19 350 18 300 17 250 16 200 15 150 Jan 03 Jun 03 Nov 03 Apr 04 Sep 04 Feb 05 14 170 150 130 110 90 70 Chinese refined CU imports Kt (RHS) Shanghai physical premia US$/ t ( LHS) 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 50 Jan 03 Jun 03 Nov 03 Apr 04 Sep 04 Feb 05 0
20% 99 2010 10 9 800 700 Kt Chilean copper mine output growth 600 500 400 300 200 1990-1999 +2.8Mt 2000-2009 +1.1Mt 100 0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2002 10
90 60 Net fund futures position '000 contracts Copper Crude oil 30 0-30 -60 Jul 03 Nov 03 Mar 04 Jul 04 Nov 04 Mar 05 67% 11% 8% 10% 35% 10% BHP1985 830 16%2004 1450 37% 11 15
10 42% 20 35% 42% 42% 42% 1 03 2
2010 1 2 Codelco 15 174.9 2008 219.9
2012 259.4 2020 244 5 7-8 3