(600491) 2006 12 8 / 2006 12 4 : % 5.99 / 9.51/4.64 2004 5541 39 104 25 0.27 5.1 10.5 21 / 2162/5876 2005 6590 19 149 43 0.38 6.0 13.7 14 1.93 2006E 6289-5 177 19 0.45 6.7 14.0 12 / 1.57 2007E 7385 17 219 24 0.56 6.8 15.7 10 A 755 2008E 8672 17 252 15 0.65 6.7 16.4 8 : 2006 09 30 3.1 % 80.01 / A ( ) 389/126 FCFF 6.74 P/E 06EPS0.45 07EPS0.56 08EPS0.65 7.28 B /H -/- 07 08 2500 2006 2006/10/26 20% G 600491 2006/08/16 G 600491 2006/06/28 10% (8621)63295888 419 jinyiyan@sw108.com (8621)63295888 450 huhaoping@sw108.com 99 8621 63295888 http://www.sw108.com
FCFF 6.74 P/E 13 07 P/E 07 EPS 0.56 12 7.28 100 20% 10% 2
1 6 2. 6 2.1 6 2.2 7 2.3 8 3. 9 3.1 9 3.2 10 4. 12 4.1 12 4.2 13 4.3 15 5. 17 5.1 17 5.2 19 6. 20 7 21 8 22 8.1 22 8.2 24 9 25 10 26 3
1...6 2...7 3...7 1 06...7 4...9 5...9 6...11 7 2005...12 8 2006...12 9 2005...13 10 2006...13 11...14 12...14 2...15 13...15 3...16 4...16 5...17 14 10%...18 6...18 7...18 15 /...19 16 /...19 8...20 9...20 17...20 18...21 10...22 11 FCFF...23...23 12...23 13 WACC...23 14 FCFF...24 15...25 16...26 4
17...27 18...28 5
1 51% 53% 3% 1% 2. 2.1 2000 2003 25% 28.2% 2001 20% 1 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 6
, 2002 2 3 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CEIC 2.2 06 11.59% 18.33% 2.72% 1 06 29 11.59% 2.72% 5.16% 30 13.99% 6.09% 10.50% 74 31.54% 10.22% 5.82% 47 21.96% 4.20% 4.79% 1343 18.33% 5.01% 10.90% 7
1 2.7% 2587 31.5% 2 3 2.3 4 2 3 3 8
4 5 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 03A 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 04A 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 05A 1Q06 2Q06 45.0 35.0 25.0 15.0 5.0 2003A 2Q2004 2004A 2Q2005 2005A 2Q2006 03-06 3. 3.1 1 9
2 60% 8000 3.3% 3 3.2 3.2.1 2005 45% 1% 04-05 06 8 51% 100 10
25% 800 20% 6 2004 2005 2006 51% 51% 2500 3.2.2 90% 60% 05 57% 55% 31% 30% 11
7 2005 8 2006 12% 15% 31% 57% 30% 55% 9 2200 4. 4.1 90% 60% 2 05 63% 06 59% 12
9 2005 10 2006 14% 9% 15% 13% 14% 63% 13% 59% 4.2 2005 04 15.78% 85.68 6 30% 24.2% 73 100 12-30 07 08 90% 06 10.25% 10% 13
11 1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 3Q2006 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% CEIC, 12 140 120 100 102 86 100 110 121 80 68 60 40 28 40 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 65% 35% 2 33% 54% 13% 15% 66% 8% 2 26.7%,57.9%,11.5% 3 06-08 14
2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2000 11.588 2.302 2001 7.48 16.22 3.22 2002 9.61 20.86 4.14 2003 14.52 31.52 6.26 2004 21.73 47.15 9.37 2005 14.87 32.27 6.41 2006E 18.69 40.56 8.06 2007E 25.50 50.99 2008E 25.85 19.06 28.14 38.61 57.39 68.29 60.33 70.46 84.89 19.67 30.88 39.95 55.41 65.90 - - - 3 13 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 4.3 15
1 05 06 10 07 08 06 05 20 2 51% 07-08 15% 20% 3 05 5.5% 7.5% 06 10% 4 10% 2 10% 3 4 2006E 2007E 2008E 3,717.35 4,460.82 5,352.99 833.71 958.77 1,150.52 326.05 293.45 264.10 843.53 927.88 1,020.67 2006E 2007E 2008E -10.00% 20.00% 20.00% -10.00% 15.00% 20.00% -10.00% -10.00% -10.00% -10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 16
2500 05 12 07 75 08 06-08 640 1346 1480 2005 4.2 06 2.37 1% 50%-60% 20% 06 5 5 2006E 2007E 2008E 64.07 134.55 148.00 500 600 720 6,288.68 7,384.83 8,671.58 5. 5.1 2005 9.2% 2004 0.82 06 10.01% 0.82 17
14 10% 9,000.00 8,000.00 7,000.00 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 11.00% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 3 2 07 08 10% 6 7 2006E 2007E 2008E 3,345.62 4,014.74 4,817.69 767.01 882.07 1,058.48 255.88 335.80 303.23 904.55 855.20 771.83 2006E 2007E 2008E 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 8.50% 8.50% 8.50% 18
5.2 04 2005 04 25% 2006 05 9 32.5 42.5 05 2.7% 0.32% 04-05 2500 07 08 20% 15 / 16 / 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 P.o42.5 P.o32.5 P.o32.5 P.o42.5 06 16.5% 2006 7.25% 0.93% 06-08 15% 14% 13% 19
8 9 2006E 2007E 2008E 57.66 107.64 118.40 425 516 626.40 2006E 2007E 2008E - 20% 20% 15.00% 14.00% 13.00% 6. 2004 03 1.21 06 0.66 17 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 3Q2006 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ( ) ( ) ( ) 04 4.32 06 10.19 20
18 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 3Q2006 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 1 05 06 [ + ]/ 7.68 5.47 2 3 06 05 7.6% 06 3% 2 4 WTO 4.3 7 21
1. 2. 35 3. 3% 6% 3.5% 2% 10 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 5541 6590 6289 7385 8672 5076 5984 5666 6643 7806 180 214 204 240 281 285 393 419 502 584 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 99 109 104 122 143 197 304 360 437 505 185 281 315 380 441 21 37 22 16 22 164 246 293 365 419 0-3 -3-3 -3 4 7 7 7 7 168 250 297 369 423 63 91 108 134 153 0 11 13 16 18 104 149 177 219 252 8 8.1 FCFF 6.74 22
11 FCFF FCFF 1( ) 3 2( ) 5 5 8% 3( ) After 8 2.0% WACC 4.97% 12 FCFF 1.026753724 2006 2007 2008 2009 2013 2014 1( ) 2( ) 3( ) 2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2013E 2014E EBIT 138 185 281 315 380 441 32.7% 34.1% 32.3% 34.3% 35.2% 34.8% NOPLAT 93 122 191 207 247 287 10 11 23 45 57 65 (253) 1,044 53 15 194 234 12 124 438 50 50 50 342 (1,034) (277) 187 59 68 74 100 102 178 54 58 60 67 65 290 359 2095 13 WACC 3.30% 6.84% Beta : 0.85 (Ke) 9.11% CAPM (Kd) 5.00% / : 233% 30.00% WACC 5.19% 23
14 FCFF FCFF 649 24% 2095 76% 2744 100% 60 664 0 3469 755 93 2621 389 6.74 8.2 P/E 06 07 08 P/E 23 19 16 07 PE 28 22 20 07 PE 13 PE 07 EPS 0.56 7.28 12 24
06-11-13 15 05EPS 06EPS(E) 07EPS(E) 05 06 07 600170 4.44 0.32 0.36 0.40 13.8 12.4 11.2 600263 6.20 0.15 0.18 0.22 41.6 34.9 28.2 600528 4.95 0.19 0.16 0.22 26.0 30.8 22.6 600583 21.92 1.48 0.90 1.08 14.8 24.3 20.2 600284 4.57 0.25 0.29 0.33 18.4 15.7 13.7 002062 12.32 0.74 0.63 0.74 16.6 19.7 16.6 600820 4.16 0.18 0.23 0.28 23.4 18.3 15.0 0.93 0.62 0.74 18.86 23.31 19.16 600491 5.29 0.38 0.45 0.56 13.9 11.8 9.4 (E) (E) 9 1 2 25
10 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 3351 4805 4203 4642 5458 721 665 413 169 169 1376 2418 2170 2574 3057 1252 1720 1619 1898 2230 2 1 1 1 1 7 60 72 86 102 143 454 463 459 448 11 115 112 109 105 3512 5435 4850 5296 6113 2475 4254 3462 4005 4662 432 755 329 383 459 1862 2971 2833 3321 3903 178 526 300 300 300 13 0 0 0 0 2487 4254 3462 4005 4662 33 93 105 121 139 992 1088 1264 1395 1537 162 243 389 389 389 382 297 151 151 151 77 110 142 181 227 370 437 582 674 770 3512 5435 4831 5521 6338 16 26
2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 104 149 177 219 252 11 23 45 57 65 16 44 22 16 22 0 3 3 3 3 (204) (107) 254 (216) (260) 24 52 (231) 38 44 (57) 162 270 116 125 111 297 50 50 50 (1) (49) (15) (17) (19) (112) (345) (65) (67) (69) 488 8 0 0 0 92 238 (426) 55 76 (16) (98) (22) (104) (132) (2) (114) 0 0 0 562 34 (448) (49) (56) 393 (149) (243) 0 0 41 403 556 137 142 116 597 108 176 196 17 27
( ) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 0.64 0.61 0.45 0.56 0.65-0.35 0.67 0.69 0.30 0.32 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.23 0.28 6.12 4.48 3.25 3.59 3.95 (%) ROIC 73.8 19.5 16.9 18.6 18.8 ROE 10.5 13.7 14.0 15.7 16.4 5.1 6.0 6.7 6.8 6.7 EBITDA Margin 3.6 4.6 5.7 5.9 5.8 EBIT Margin 3.3 4.3 5.0 5.2 5.1 39.1 18.9 (4.6) 17.4 17.4 25.3 42.9 18.7 24.3 14.6 70.8 78.3 71.4 75.6 76.3 5.59 6.06 4.97 5.29 5.64 1.58 1.21 1.30 1.39 1.42 37.6 35.9 36.0 36.0 36.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 3.8 4.7 ( ) P/E 9.3 9.8 13.2 10.6 9.3 P/B 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.5 EV/Sale 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 EV/EBITDA 10.6 8.1 6.3 5.9 5.3 18 28
29 6 (Buy) 20 (Outperform) 5 20 (Neutral) 5 5 (Underperform) 5 6, (Overweight) (Neutral) (underweight) 300 12