: 35 ; : 1. ; 1 ; 2 ( ) 1 2 : 2 :

: : 2012 487.53 258.39 53%; 67.59% 75.20% : ( 100836) ; ; 1 ( ) : 2 1 2 4 2011 ( 11@ZH006) : : 2012 : 2013 7 8

: 35 ; : 1. ; 1 ; 2 ( ) 1 2 : 2 : 2006 19 5

2014 1 50% 1 20 ( ) 2 30 ; ( ) ( ) 2. 1 2 6 3 : 2012 363 3 365 : ( 1 : 2004 872 )

: 2012 1 ; ; ;2 ;3 ;4 5 ( ) 2012 6 12 : 2008 3 3 : 2012 3 4 : 2012 22 5 : 2006 4 6 : 2012 7

2014 1 ( ) 2008 52.46% 47.54% 2008 2004 2008 ( ) ( ) ; ; 1. 2012 2011 1.6 1 2012 1 1 8 10 : 2012 : 2012 472

1 1 2 2012 1.9 26376 2 5.01 1 2012 : 27508.3015 : 3456.7502 932.8740 4545.5643 2354.4441 8448.6516 5414.4813 943.8562 1411.6798 : 20150 5800 14350 2012 1.9 31 ( ) 10 30.1%; 3 13.8%; 6 22.8%; 12 33.3% ( 6 15.5%) : 2012 2012 ( ) ( ) 2 2 2012 : 170796 91538 79258 62739 3048 18041 3731 8479 10850 4814 601 844 57649 1 2 1 2 2012 60 ( : 2009 ) 2008 2004 2008 0.687% 2012 9

2014 1 : 309 12 297 2012 575 31 ( ) 10 27.3%; 3 12.1%; 6 22.6%; 12 38% ( 6 17.8%) 1 : 1 2012 55 1 3.16 2012 1.1 2 2012 4.26 2012 45.95 54.05 2. 3 2012 3 1 2 3 10 60 2008 2004 2008 1.94% 2012 : (2012)htp:// www.saic.gov.cn/zwgk/tjzl/zxtjzl/xxzx/201301/p020130110600723719125.pdf.

3 2012 (%) ( ) ( / ) 758 27 3.56 5.13 334 825 86 10.42 1.09 301 776 75 9.66 1.84 371 : : (1) ;(2) ( 70 100 ) : 1 3 300 370 400 470 1.33 1.57 18.06 1 24.02 28.29 28 4.26 28 32.26 5.01 86.56 13.44 3. ( ) 1 2012 ( 465 ) 2008 1.217159 2000 ( 134 ) 2012 1.203759 18.06 11

2014 1 ; ; ( ) ( ) 2004 2008 2012 2012 1. 2012 2008 2012 ( 6) 1 1 12 80% ( : 2012 3 )

20% = + = = - ( ) 2004 2008 2008 2012 4 ( ) ; 2008 84.74% 66.44% 72.07% 2004 2008 4 2004 2012 4 2004 2008 ( / ) 2004 2008 6.35 9.98 6.06 7.15 12.11 19.43 4.09 6.00 1.81 2.19 2.25 3.03 : ( ) 13

2014 1 ( ) 2008 2008 ( 2012 10 ) 5 2004 2012 ( / ) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 6.35 6.79 7.25 7.74 8.27 8.83 9.43 10.08 10.76 6.06 6.47 6.91 7.38 7.88 8.42 8.99 9.61 10.26 12.11 12.93 13.81 14.75 15.76 16.83 17.98 19.20 20.51 4.09 4.37 4.67 4.99 5.33 5.69 6.08 6.49 6.94 1.81 1.94 2.07 2.21 2.36 2.52 2.69 2.88 3.07 2.25 2.41 2.57 2.74 2.93 3.13 3.34 3.57 3.81 : 4 6 2004 2012 : 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 4.74 4.47 4.64 4.77 4.78 4.90 5.24 5.66 6.12 0.86 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.62 0.56 0.53 0.50 0.48 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.27 9.87 10.88 12.45 15.43 17.14 20.62 23.89 29.06 32.74 4.79 6.13 7.60 9.39 11.74 14.64 19.21 25.79 31.10 6.03 6.65 7.55 8.79 9.03 9.59 10.65 11.17 11.83 27.05 29.71 33.87 40.11 44.51 51.72 61.18 74.14 82.54 : : 2005 2011 (2012) 6 2004 2012 5 2004 2012 7 2004 2008 96.7 207.8 99.88 193.54 3% 6% 2012 96 2004 10 2012 2004 560% 2012 2004 219% 95% 296% 2012 45 2004 3.3 14

7 2004 2012 : 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 30.10 30.30 33.65 36.94 39.50 43.30 49.40 57.03 64.65 5.20 4.84 4.85 4.92 4.85 4.73 4.74 4.84 4.93 1.90 2.04 2.42 3.23 3.65 4.14 4.77 5.19 5.60 40.40 47.56 58.17 76.98 91.34 117.39 145.25 188.74 232.23 8.70 11.89 15.74 20.76 27.72 36.95 51.76 74.23 96.70 13.58 16.00 19.38 24.11 26.47 30.01 35.63 39.89 44.16 99.88 112.64 134.22 166.94 193.54 236.53 291.56 369.92 448.28 : 2 3 2008 65% 35% 2004 63% 37% 8 2004 2007 63% 2008 65% 2012 (1) (2) = + + + (1) = + + (2) 8 2004 :% 100 98.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 100 36.2 15.1 47.2 0.5 1 100 52 8.4 32.5 2.6 4.5 : ( ) (1) (2) 2004 2012 2004 2012 2004 62.73% 37.27%; 2012 50.44% 15

2014 1 49.56% 2008 2008 9 2004 2012 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ( ) 99.88 112.64 134.22 166.94 193.54 236.53 291.56 369.92 448.28 ( ) 62.65 67.15 77.57 93.59 107.37 128.48 153.34 189.73 226.13 ( ) 37.23 45.49 56.65 73.35 86.16 108.05 138.22 180.19 222.15 (%) 62.73 59.62 57.79 56.06 55.48 54.32 52.59 51.29 50.44 (%) 37.27 40.38 42.21 43.94 44.52 45.68 47.41 48.71 49.56 : 4 (1) (2) 2. 2012 1.98 1 50.22% 49.78% 7 2012 51.8% 1 16 : (2012) htp://www.saic.gov.cn/zwgk/tjzl/zxtjzl/xxzx/201301/p020130110600723719125.pdf.

; ( ) : ; 90 2012 17

2014 1 (GDP) 2013 2012 1.82 21.6% 60% 50%GDP 60% 80% 90% 1 (GDP) 2004 2008 ( ) 2008 1. ( ) GDP 2008 2012 10 10 2008 2012 : 2008 28.03434 207.80 2009 30.56768 236.53 2010 36.09792 291.56 2011 42.53953 369.92 2012 46.65685 448.28 : 9 1 18 : 2012 1.82 2013 3 6 htp:// finance.sina.com.cn/china/20130306/162014740336.shtml.

( ) GDP = - GDPGDP = + + + GDP GDP ; GDP 2003 2005 ( ) 2009 2012 ( 11) 11 2009 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.8736 0.9555 0.8713 0.8724 0.7388 0.7050 0.6396 0.6874 0.7676 0.7287 0.6574 0.7104 0.5053 0.4341 0.3921 0.4451 0.9376 0.8424 0.8453 0.8903 0.7388 0.7050 0.6396 0.6787 (3): η= ΔGDP GDP K ΔK (3) η GDP ΔGDP K ΔK (3) (4): GDP= ΔGDP η K ΔK (5): (4) GDP t= GDPt-GDPt-1 Kt (5) η K t-k t-1 19

2014 1 (6): GDP t= GDPt-1 Kt (6) K t K t-k t-1 1-η K t-k t-1 2009 GDP : GDP 2009= GDP 2008 1-η K2009-K2008 K 2009 2008 12 2008 28.03 12 28.03 26.67 = 1.051156 12 10 12 2008 : 4.07 0.34 8.46 6.79 7.01 26.67 4.28 0.36 8.89 7.14 7.37 28.03 : : 2012 4 11 12 (6) 2009 2012 2008 2012 13 13 2008 2012 : 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 4.28 4.63 5.25 5.95 6.63 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.41 8.89 10.72 12.46 14.68 16.94 7.14 8.17 9.33 10.58 11.80 7.37 8.28 9.55 10.50 11.49 28.03 32.17 36.98 42.12 47.28 28.03 30.57 36.10 42.54 46.69 13 2008 2012 12 14 14 2008 2012 : 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 4.28 4.40 5.13 6.01 6.55 20

14 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.36 0.35 0.38 0.40 0.41 8.89 10.18 12.16 14.83 16.73 7.14 7.76 9.10 10.69 11.66 7.37 7.87 9.33 10.61 11.35 28.03 30.57 36.10 42.54 46.69 14 15 15 2008 2012 : 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 8.89 10.18 12.16 14.83 16.73 3.85 4.40 5.53 7.09 8.18 5.04 5.78 6.64 7.74 8.55 14 15 : GDP pu=gdp SOE+GDP COE+GDP MOEpu (7) GDP pr=gdp POE+GDP FOE+GDP MOEpr (8) (7) GDP pu GDP SOE GDP COE GDP MOEpu (8) GDP pr GDP POE GDP FOE GDP MOEpr (7) (8) 14 15 16 2008 2012 (GDP) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDPpu ( ) 8.49 9.15 11.03 13.50 15.13 GDPpr ( ) 19.55 21.41 25.07 29.03 31.55 ( ) 28.03 30.57 36.10 42.54 46.69 GDPpu (%) 30.28 29.94 30.56 31.75 32.41 GDPpr (%) 69.74 70.06 69.44 68.25 67.59 (%) 100 100 100 100 100 16 2008 21

2014 1 2009 2012 GDP 2009 29.94% 32.41% 70.06% 67.59% ; 2012 GDP 2. 17 18 17 2008 2011 : 2008 6447 662 164 43 2194 840 5124 679 943 2009 6420 618 160 37 2433 956 5544 721 978 2010 6516 597 156 36 2613 1024 6071 770 1053 2011 6704 603 149 37 3269 1183 6912 932 1217 : ( : 2010 4 ) : 2012 22

18 2009 2012 : 2009 6420 778 3426 5544 1699 2010 6516 753 3673 6071 1823 2011 6704 752 4489 6912 2149 2012 6851 739 7719 2420 : 2012 2009 2011 18 2009 2012 ( 19) 19 2008 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.4169 0.3618 0.2982 0.3389 0.3280 0.5304 0.6340 0.6940 0.7066 0.7460 0.0739 0.1740 0.2693 0.2733 0.3425 (9) (10) : ηmoe pu =ηsoe ESOE +ηcoe E SOE+E COE ηmoe pr =ηpoe EPOE +ηfoe E POE+E FOE ECOE E SOE+E COE (9) EFOE E POE+E FOE (10) ηmoepu ηmoepr ; ηsoe ηcoe ηpoe ηfoe ;E SOE E COE E POE E FOE (9) (10) 20 20 2009 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.3618 0.2982 0.3389 0.3280 0.5261 0.5959 0.6038 0.6497 23

2014 1 (11): ηe= ΔGDP GDP E ΔE (11) η E E ΔE (12): ηe t = GDPt-GDPt-1 GDP t Et E t-e t-1 (12) ηet t GDP t GDP t-1 t t-1 GDPE t E t-1 t t-1 (12) (13) : E t= E t-1 1-ηE t ( GDPt-GDPt-1 GDP t ) (13) 2008 (13) 15 20 21 21 2008 2012 : 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1074 1340 1427 1542 1613 2003 2148 2328 2546 2713 3077 3488 3755 4089 4326 3426 3673 4489 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1074 1313 1390 1734 1613 2003 2113 2283 2755 2713 3077 3426 3673 4489 4326 21 18 ( 22) 2008 2009 22 2008 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ( ) 33322 34687 35914 37102 ( ) 8511 8659 9190 9203 ( ) 24811 26028 26724 27899 (%) 24.5 25.54 24.96 25.59 24.80 (%) 75.8 74.46 75.04 74.41 75.20 24

: 17 : = - 2012 487.53 ( ) 258.39 53% 1 : ( ) 2010 30.7 2012 2010 ( ) 518.13 ( ) 288.99 55.78% 1 : 2012 6 7 25

2014 1 30 2004 2008 ( 1) 2008 2012 1 2012 1 (2005 2012) 2008 (2004-2008) 62.73% 55.48% 37.27% 44.52%; (2009-2012) 1 26 : : 2012 3

54.32% 50.44% 45.68% 49.56% ( ) :(1) 40 50 70 ;(2) ( ) 1 ( 1 ) 2 2004 6 10 15 30 2013 1000 1500 3 4.5 27

2014 1 2012 37.27 32.26 86.6% 50 30 28

1815 1930 115 1870 1 1.6 2000 2 2012 24564.7 7916.6 3 1 3 : : 1 2 3 Chris Wiliamsed.A Companionto Nineteenth-Century Britain Malden MA: BlackwelPub.2004p.281. : :2000 2009 3 2 : 2013 : 2013 378 29