T_FSAndVSAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo T_ReportAbstract 0363.HK 08-10 25% 0.40 0.50 0.61 09 25-30 PE 12.5-15 14 08 9 6 -A 1219.808 09100.790.940925-30 PE19.8-23.740% -A12 19.8 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2,588.8 2,849.6 3,183.3 3,611.8 4,141.2 Growth(%) 10.0% 10.1% 11.7% 13.5% 14.7% 175.8 214.7 226.0 271.4 315.9 Growth(%) -2.2% 30.5% 5.6% 27.4% 21.5% (%) 26.5% 26.2% 26.2% 26.3% 26.4% (%) 4.1% 4.8% 4.6% 5.1% 5.4% () 0.29 0.38 0.40 0.50 0.61 () 6.04 6.32 6.49 6.72 7.13 48.9 37.5 35.5 27.8 22.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 (%) 7.9% 9.2% 9.5% 11.0% 12.0% ROIC(%) 8.8% 11.6% 11.1% 12.9% 14.5% EV/EBITDA 19.6 17.6 17.6 14.6 12.7 0.7% 0.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6% T_RankInfo -A -A 19.80 12 14.00 14.05 2008-06-02 T_MarketInfo 5,167.80 3,171.99 367.81 225.76 11.35/24.30 % 13.38% 42,275 12 % 12.93 5.00 (21.59) 4.15 (17.74) (26.65) T_Analyst 021-68766073 honglu@essences.com.cn 010-66581623 zhaonan@essences.com.cn T_RelatedReport 1
1.... 4 2....5 2.1.... 7 2.1.1. 51%... 7 2.1.2. 28%... 9 2.2.... 10 2.2.1. 60.59%... 10 2.2.2. 71.91%... 12 2.3.... 12 2.4. 08... 12 2.5. 21.17%... 13 3.... 13 3.1. 55%... 13 3.2. 61%... 15 3.3. 51.0069%... 15 3.4. 55.00%... 16 3.5. 24%... 17 4.... 17 5.... 19 2
1... 4 2... 5 3... 7 4... 7 5 -... 8 6 -... 8 7 Smart Nice... 9 8... 10 9... 11 10... 11 11... 11 12... 12 13... 12 14... 13 15... 13 16... 14 17... 14 18... 15 19... 15 20... 16 21... 16 22... 17 23... 17 1... 14 2... 18 3... 18 4... 18 5... 19 3
1. 600607 1981 0363.HK 1 2007 12 31. 2007 5 10,722 4,677 9 6,045 14.13 / 15.15 55 51.0069 61 55 24 250 4
2007 10 2008 9 6 2. 40%-45% 2 5
6 0363HK 100% Shanghai Industial YKB Limited 600607.SH 0980HK 100% 43.62% 100% 70% 51% 54.77% 100% 58.19% 71.91% 100% 2.86% 48.15% 49% 51% 100% 28% 100% 60.59% 77.78% 21.17% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 55% 61% 51% 55% 100% 19.1% 24% 100% 70.41%
2.1. 51%28% 2.1.1. 51% 10 10 UKUTI HCG0HMGHUKFSH 07 200715% 250 2007 200620071.862.927.75% 57.21%2,5473,64510.12%43.11%2007 2007 2007 2.52,80035%10% 1.9340% 2007 3 4 2007 2.11 72% 480 / 70-80% 1994 2001 2002 2005 2005 20062007 2006 7
857 2007 864 2007 2006 2007 2007 06 100 2007 200 2007 2008 1-4 600 2,000 6 48 2008 300 2008 2007 4 1999 2008200740%30% 2.5 5-6 - 2007 1,000 2008 10% 2008 3 Smart Nice 51% 40.80% Smart Nice 2-3 8
7 Smart Nice Salt Investments Glitnir Bank 9.5% 66.67% 33.33% Actavis Twins 100% Smart Nice Smart Nice ActavisSalt Investments Actavis Robert Wessman Actavis 9.5% Actavis 2008 3 28 Actavis1997 1999 20 05 20062007 13.4 15.5 40 600 Actavis 2008 2008 25% 23% 2.1.2. 28% 1992 2002 2007 9
11,153 vecon 10,583 3,707 1,038 2007 2008 1,000 8 2.2. 60.59% 77.78%71.91% 2.2.1. 60.59% 480 1/2 130 30 9 2 7 11 GMP FDA 95% 1984 FDA 50 2007 2 4 95% 05 2004 2006 10
8TNF 9 10 2007 13.6 8-9 9% 7,373 21.11% 31.66%07 5,382 12% 5,575 28% 3,419 70% 4,832 38% 11 2007 2007 2007 11
08 200815%18% 2.2.2. 71.91% 200 1 70 1 1 500 2007 30,674 20 1,000 10% 2007-2,420 14%2008 10%-20% 2.3. 100% 58.19% 54.77% 70%2007 6.23 175 2008 2008 2008 2.4. 99%1998 30% SDIF 1 3 23 13 30 12 13 2007 10.86% 12
2007 2007 EL 2F 4,071 312007 16.91% 2008 14 2.5. 21.17% 21.17% 40%-45% 2007 200713 20073,7222007 201.719.34%5.9373.09% 2.6926.89% 15 3. 2007 1.46 2007 0.6 3.1. 55% 1972 1992 22 13
2 37 2,000 200720078.98236% 2.94 2.491.236.6680% 4,8133,846 200548.7% 2006 200624%2007 6%200725.5% 2007 200890% 1 () 16 17 20055,4602006 250 14
20088%-10%15% 20% 3.2. 2007 618 19 13 23 2007 17.3% 40% 2006 2007 2,000 54.8% 8,839 15.2% 2008 1.74 18 19 2008 OTC 2008 1.8-2 20-25% 3.3. 15
1874 9 181 4 31 20072.5310%08 2006 8,218 4,928 3,020 2007 10% 16.6% 3,500 20 21 1808 3.4. 55.00% 2004 30 800 3 6 3 52 9 8 19 27 30% 16
7 9 3 39 VIP 1,800 2,500 OTC 6,000 2007 18.1% 1.75 08 15% 22 23 3.5. 1874 30 2007 1.1 900 5% 4. 2007 2008 15.15 14.13 / 46,770,000 60,450,000 2 17
SHANGHAI INDUSTRIAL YKB LIMITED 160,440,885 43.62% 0 160,440,885 33.77% 0 0.00% 46,770,000 46,770,000 9.85% 0 0.00% 60,450,000 60,450,000 12.73% 207,373,936 56.38% 0 207,373,936 43.65% 367,814,821 100.00% 107,220,000 475,034,821 100.00% 3 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 100% 99% 60.59% 51.01% 49,119 47,545 62,343 67,642 74,542 83,860-3.20% 31.12% 8.50% 10.20% 12.50% -759 628 175 345 555 738 -- -72.06% 96.64% 60.87% 32.97% 61,636 60,383 53,826 56,840 61,671 68,239-2.03% -10.86% 5.60% 8.50% 10.65% 2,872 1,801 2,105 2,258 2,580 2,988-37.29% 16.91% 7.24% 14.26% 15.82% 107,186 112,434 136,172 157,278 180,634 208,126 4.90% 21.11% 15.50% 14.85% 15.22% 5,000 5,600 7,373 8,718 10,400 12,621 12.00% 31.66% 18.24% 19.29% 21.36% 17,231 18,566 29,188 36,544 44,326 53,903 7.75% 57.21% 25.20% 21.30% 21.61% 2,313 2,547 3,645 4,496 5,674 7,135 10.12% 43.10% 23.36% 26.19% 25.76% -267 2,388 2,444 2,600 2,822 3,118 28% -- 2.35% 6.38% 8.52% 10.50% 28% 4 4,698 4,914 5,685 6,225 6,848 7,532 4.60% 15.69% 9.50% 10% 10% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 55% 61% 112,660 97,322 87,203 84,304 91,049 100,153 112,172-13.61% -10.40% -3.32% 8.00% 10% 12% 19,128 15,572 14,678 20,000 23,000 26,560 30,943-18.59% -5.74% 36.26% 15.00% 15.48% 16.50% 11,896 13,128 13,693 16,062 18,551 21,483 24,941 10.36% 4.30% 17.30% 15.50% 15.80% 16.10% 4,468 3,645 2,758 3,861 4,730 5,936 7,135 18
51% 55% 24% -18.42% -24.33% 40.00% 22.50% 25.50% 20.20% 19,698 24,792 25,100 27,610 30,868 34,726 38,894 25.86% 1.24% 10.00% 11.80% 12.50% 12.00% 4,318 3,706 1,554 1,244 1,547 1,728 1,936-14.17% -58.07% -19.95% 24.36% 11.70% 12.04% 13,406 15,856 14,788 17,465 20,119 23,137 26,608 18.28% -6.74% 18.10% 15.20% 15% 15% 2,302 2,503 940 548 664 787 958 8.73% -62.45% -41.70% 21.16% 18.48% 21.76% 5,106 6,508 7,892 11,808 14,111 16,904 20,353 27.46% 21.27% 49.62% 19.50% 19.80% 20.40% 335 658 675 1,420 1,623 1,859 2,239 96.42% 2.58% 110.37% 14.28% 14.59% 20.40% 5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 384,255 438,777 493,002 557,577 637,096 14.19% 12.36% 13.10% 14.26% 22,629 28,429 31,760 37,713 44,805 25.63% 11.72% 18.74% 18.81% 0.48 0.60 0.67 0.79 0.94 5. 080910 0.40 0.50 0.61 25.07% 09 25-30 PE 12.5-15 08 0910 0.79 0.94 09 25-30 PE 19.8-23.7 40% -A12 19.8 19
T_FSAndVS 2008-5-30 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2,588.8 2,849.6 3,183.3 3,611.8 4,141.2 1,903.0 2,102.4 2,348.3 2,662.6 3,047.9 10.0% 10.1% 11.7% 13.5% 14.7% 13.1 14.8 16.6 18.8 21.5 13.3% 10.7% 11.0% 20.8% 16.9% 261.3 312.5 347.0 372.0 426.5-2.2% 30.5% 5.6% 27.4% 21.5% 254.6 252.3 280.1 317.8 356.1 EBITDA 12.9% 11.7% 1.1% 21.3% 15.1% 7.4 10.2 0.3 7.2 6.1 EBIT 13.6% 11.6% 6.7% 23.4% 16.2% 5.4 21.0 7.7 3.4 8.1 NOPLAT 16.2% 22.7% 1.5% 22.5% 15.8% - - - - - -6.7% 5.4% 5.5% 3.1% 7.3% 73.3 104.2 84.0 93.0 102.8 4.8% 4.8% 2.6% 3.6% 6.0% 217.4 240.7 267.3 322.9 377.6 0.5 22.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 26.5% 26.2% 26.2% 26.3% 26.4% 217.8 263.4 277.3 332.9 387.6 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.9% 9.1% 42.0 48.7 51.3 61.6 71.7 4.1% 4.8% 4.6% 5.1% 5.4% 175.8 214.7 226.0 271.4 315.9 EBITDA/ 10.5% 10.7% 9.6% 10.3% 10.4% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E EBIT/ 8.7% 8.8% 8.4% 9.1% 9.3% 525.4 557.6 581.6 601.4 634.0 - - - - - 75 75 68 62 54 493.3 497.1 604.5 639.8 730.5 85 73 72 71 72 8.8 23.7 26.2 29.7 34.0 201 190 182 174 165 50.8 38.1 40.4 43.1 46.1 59 59 60 58 56 389.8 417.7 481.6 546.0 625.0 52 51 51 51 51-0.0 0.1-51.7-60.3-70.9 415 395 367 337 309 22.7 22.0 - - - 277 250 236 217 199 - - - - - 549.7 599.1 597.6 597.6 597.6 ROE 7.9% 9.2% 9.5% 11.0% 12.0% 36.6 14.3 - - - ROA 5.7% 6.7% 6.8% 7.9% 8.6% 585.2 595.1 613.9 625.2 628.1 ROIC 8.8% 11.6% 11.1% 12.9% 14.5% 42.3 64.1 39.1 24.0 15.0 106.9 107.8 107.9 108.0 108.1 10.1% 11.0% 10.9% 10.3% 10.3% 250.2 248.9 262.5 294.9 314.6 9.8% 8.9% 8.8% 8.8% 8.6% 3,061.7 3,185.7 3,303.4 3,449.4 3,662.3 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 185.6 191.5 185.6 178.5 189.6 / 20.2% 20.2% 19.7% 19.3% 19.0% 465.4 486.4 522.1 565.6 590.3 1.1 12.2 19.3 21.9 25.1 27.5% 27.0% 27.7% 28.3% 28.4% 137.9 121.8 149.3 172.3 199.5 37.9% 36.9% 38.4% 39.5% 39.6% 7.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 1.86 1.89 1.92 1.92 1.99 43.9 42.7 35.4 33.3 30.6 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.33 1.37 841.4 859.3 916.4 976.2 1,039.7 30.42 24.65 790.43 46.11 62.51 454.9 464.5 488.9 525.6 551.6 367.8 367.8 367.8 367.8 367.8 DPS() 0.10-0.14 0.18 0.22 1,397.3 1,491.7 1,530.7 1,579.7 1,703.3 34.8% 0.0% 35.8% 35.8% 35.8% 2,220.3 2,326.4 2,387.4 2,473.1 2,622.7 0.7% 0.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 175.8 214.7 226.0 271.4 315.9 EPS() 0.29 0.38 0.40 0.50 0.61 59.1 62.2 39.5 42.5 45.1 BVPS() 6.04 6.32 6.49 6.72 7.13 5.4 21.0 7.7 3.4 8.1 PE(X) 48.9 37.5 35.5 27.8 22.9 - - - - - PB(X) 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 15.7 10.6 14.1 0.3 7.2 P/FCF - 423.9 114.3 48.0 78.7-73.3-104.2-84.0-93.0-102.8 P/S 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 70.1 76.7 80.3 85.8 90.4 EV/EBITDA 19.6 17.6 17.6 14.6 12.7-69.8-9.8-130.2-61.1-131.7 CAGR(%) 15.6% 13.7% -0.6% -100.0% -100.0% 163.6 180.7 139.6 256.1 231.1 PEG 3.1 2.7-61.5-0.3-0.2 31.6-41.8 73.9 60.9 70.7 ROIC/WACC 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5-97.0-103.2-41.4-80.7-75.7 REP 3.0 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.5 Wind.NET 20
T_AuthorInfo 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-68763879 zhangqin@essences.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essences.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essences.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essences.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essences.com.cn 0755-82558084 lijin@essences.com.cn 0755-82558082 hesz2@essences.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essences.com.cn : 518026 : 200122 : 100034 21