能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 9 * 能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 ** 梁啟源 摘 要 (1) (2) (1) 2004~2008 a b c d (2) OPEC 2008 30 30~80 (3) 13% GDP 0.88% 0.34% 12.42% * **
10 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 0.84% 1.73% 25.6% GDP 1.52% 0.44% 29.37% 0.90% 2.18% (4) 2007 10 2008 5 a b c d e f 壹 前言 2004 (WTI) 41.24 2003 33.46% 2005 56.64 2004 37.35% 2006 16.79% 66.15 2007 72.29 2006 9.28% 2008 7 147 97 10% GDP 0.69% 0.27% 1 (1) (2)
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 11 貳 國際油價飆漲分析及變動展望 一 國際油價飆漲分析 (2004.1-2008.7) WTI 2004 41.24 33.46% 2005 56.64 2004 37.35% 2006 16.79% 66.15 2007 2006 9.28% 2008 10 109.65 2007 42.3% 1 2008 7 147 1 / 2008 1-10 109.65 103.19 107.24 2007 72.29 68.48 72.81 2006 66.15 62.11 65.20 2005 56.64 49.73 54.59 2004 41.24 33.57 38.34 2003 30.90 26.46 28.87 2008 51.68% 50.69% 47.29% 2007 9.28% 10.26% 11.67% 2006 16.79% 24.89% 19.45% 2005 37.35% 48.15% 42.38% 2004 33.46% 26.87% 32.80% 2004-2008 1. 2. 3. ; 4. ; 5. ( ) (IEA) 2004 2003 7,930 8,240 ( 3.94%) 4.21% 2003 7,980 8,320 82 2005 8,370 1.58% 8,450 1.5%
12 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 77 2 2006 8,450 0.96% 1.58% 8,530 0.95 1.5% 2007 8,600 1.53% 0.71% 8,550 8,638 0.47% 8,654 1.17% 16 2 2004-2007 2007 OPEC 1.1 / IEA 2008 2 / (%) (%) - 2003 79.3 79.8 0.58 2004 82.4 3.94 83.2 4.21 0.82 2005 83.7 1.58 84.5 1.50 0.77 2006 84.5 0.96 85.3 0.95 0.77 2007 86.0 1.53 85.5-0.71-1.10 2008* 86.4 0.47 86.5 1.17 0.16 2008* IEA International Energy Agency (IEA Oil Market Report, 2008) ( ) 2004 2008 7 1.26 1 1.57 1 17.6 ( ) 2004 2004 2004 (16.36%) 1. WTO 2. 3.
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 13 4. 1 2 3 5. 2004 0.5 1 2004 2004 ( 16.36%) 2005 4.69% 2006 2007 7.46% 4.17% IEA 2008 6.67% ( 3) (1) 3 (2001-2008) (%) (2) (%) (3)=(1)-(2) 2001 4.9-3.3-1.6 - (%) 2002 5.0 2.04 3.4 3.03 1.6 0.00 2003 5.5 10.00 3.4 0.00 2.1 31.25 2004 6.4 16.36 3.5 2.94 2.9 38.10 2005 6.7 4.69 3.6 2.86 3.1 6.90 2006 7.2 7.46 3.7 2.78 3.5 12.90 2007 7.5 4.17 3.7 0.00 3.8 8.57 2008* 8.0 6.67 3.8 2.70 4.2 10.53 * International Energy Agency, IEA ( ) British Petroleum Co. 2007 R/P 41.6 1980 27.5 1.7 1980 2007 ( 4 1) 1980-2007
14 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 4 1980 2007 ( ) ( ) 2007 ( / ) 362.0 (54.8%) 755.3 (61.0%) 25.176 82.2 25.5 (3.9%) 111.2 (9.0%) 6.633 45.9 89.0 (13.5%) 143.7 (11.6%) 17.835 22.1 55.1 (8.3%) 117.5 (9.5%) 10.318 31.2 88.2 (13.4%) 69.3 (5.6%) 13.665 13.9 40.1 (6.1%) 40.8 (3.3%) 7.907 14.2 659.9 1237.9 81.533 41.6 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008 1 (R) (P) (1980-2003) ( ) (CFTC) (2008 7 8 ) 110 2005 7 5 60.09 (110 ) (8,522 / ) 13.1 2008 7 8 30 2005 7 8 13 1.26 (8,522 / )3.57 30.4 1,000 / 30,415 / 30,415 / 8,522 / 3.57 ( 2) WTI 2004 1 6 2008 7 8 WTI 0.76 ( 2)
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 15 2 WTI (2000.01.04-2008.07.08) 3 WTI 2007 1 3 2008 7 8 0.502 0.502 WTI 3 WTI (2000.01.04-2008.07.08)
16 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 2004 2001 Federal Fund Rate 2000 6.25% 2004 1.0% 2004 2004 4000 2008 3 2 3 2007 18 36 GDP 14 二 國際油價變動展望 ( ) 2008 2008 2008 2008 4 OPEC 2004 4% 2007-2008 0.47% OPEC 2007 1.3% OPEC 40% 1986 30% 2006 5.25% 2006 0.96% 26 1.7% 2006 7 76 52 2006 2007 2008 5.25% 2% (2000 2007 4) 96 7 147 ( ) 2008 96 7 147 200 7 18 100 300
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 17 4 : 80 5 9 15 OPEC 60 100 6 WTI 11 6 60.77 1930 10 29 1% 2004 2008 (CFTC) - 3 8 10-1533 5
18 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 5 5 140 10 120 14.3% 6 5 450,000 10 350,000 22.2% 7 6 30% 40% 7000 (1) - 13
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 19 7 2007 18-5 (2) (3) 100 OPEC OPEC 2006 OPEC 12 14 50 / 2007 2 1 OPEC 2007 12 150 11 50 2008 7 OPEC 3750 3700 2008 10 24 150 / OPEC 8 OPEC OPEC 147.27 OPEC OPEC 2008 11 29 4 3 OPEC 13
20 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 OPEC 2008 12 17 OPEC ( ) OPEC 2008 12 17 OPEC OPEC (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 100 (2007 4 21) OPEC 50 7 2009 50 2008 30 30~80 8 OPEC WTI
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 21 參 能源價格波動對國內經濟影響效果之估計及模擬 一 油價變動對台灣經濟之影響 ( ) 13% 5 97 5 28 5 28 20.6% 6 13% 5 1. 13 3.76 3.23 2.33% 1.28 1.02 0.77 0.51 0.88 2. 20.07% 2.06% (1.77%) (1.04%) (1.02%) ( ) 13% 5 97 5 28 5 28 11 12 20.6% 6 13% 5 1. 13% -0.34 2.09 (-1.39 ) (-1.01 ) (-0.46 ) (-0.31 ) (-0.24 ) (-0.11 ) 2. -12.09% (-0.73%) -0.55% (-0.54%) (-0.23%) ( ) CO 2 CO2 1% 10% 13% 97 5 28 CO2 5 28 20.6% CO2 13% ( ) 1. 13% CO2 6.19%
22 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 12.42% - 0. 9 6 % -0.88% 0.83% 2. 1 3 % C O 2 (-12.43%) (-9.36%) (-5.05%) (-3.98%) -3.28 (-3.17%) (-2.16%) CO2-11.38-8.18 (-6.85%) -6.52% -6.52% CO2 2.5 3 5 13% CO2 0.77-0.46 - -12.69 - -1.20-9.36 3.23-1.01 1.49-13.02 1.40 3.45-3.98 0.81 0.83 - -10.98 - -2.29-1.85 0.51-0.88 - -12.30-0.29-2.34-4.31 1.02-0.31 0.15-13.35-1.21-0.87-5.05 0.65-0.08-0.11-12.00 0.10-2.40-5.81 0.51-0.19-0.21-12.19 - -2.50-8.18 1.02-0.18 0.15-13.67 0.36-1.72-5.22 0.80-0.21-0.26-13.35 - -2.08-6.85 0.42-0.15 0.07-4.44 - -4.07-4.27 0.61-0.23 - -11.90 0.34-2.18-5.47 - - - - - - - 0.93-0.19 0.05-11.91 0.30-2.20-4.84 1.45-0.54 28.39-12.80 - -3.99-6.47 0.88-0.18 - -12.43 - -2.06-6.52 20.07-12.09 13.27-11.93 7.21 14.41-11.38 2.06-0.55 0.81-11.50-3.34-0.46-3.77 1.77-0.73 3.51-18.77-3.73-8.67-3.26 1.04-0.15 0.11-11.82 0.32-2.18-4.92 0.84-0.17 0.97-11.06-1.36-1.31-5.07 0.48-0.08 0.11-11.81 0.32-2.18-4.73 0.64-0.07-0.26-12.11 - -2.53-6.52 0.67-0.02 - - - - - 3.76-1.39 16.66-33.91 7.39 4.04-2.16 4.20-0.96 17.50-34.51 12.19 5.55-1.28-0.24 0.71-11.40 - -1.59-3.17 2.33-2.09 0.75-13.20 - -1.53-12.43 0.51-0.11 0.56-11.40 0.77-1.74-3.28 1.28-0.37 0.79-13.94-0.89-0.71-4.98 0.88-0.34 0.83-12.42-0.88-0.96-6.19
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 23 6 20.6% CO2-1.25 0.81-18.98-1.94 13.99-5.16 1.56-2.30 19.43-2.18-5.54 5.89-1.18-1.37-16.36-3.57 2.83-0.76 1.35-18.58 0.38 3.71 6.60-1.53 0.56-0.25 19.92 1.84 1.47 7.61-0.94 0.09 0.16 17.96-0.13 3.74 8.80-0.76 0.25 0.29 18.20-3.86 12.23-1.53 0.36-0.25 20.25-0.53 2.62 7.81-1.32 0.29 0.41 19.80-3.30 10.23-0.73 0.25-0.07 6.80-6.37 6.75-1.02 0.33-17.71-0.49 3.41 8.31 - - - - - - - -1.48 0.25-0.05 17.75-0.51 3.36 7.33-2.24 0.87-43.43 19.02-6.15 9.61-1.35 0.22-18.57-3.25 9.74-31.88 18.08-20.91 17.67-11.11-22.82 16.89-3.26 0.92-1.19 17.18 5.12 0.81 5.60-2.71 1.11-5.01 27.65 5.74 13.32 5.05-1.75 0.25-0.16 17.63-0.45 3.41 7.41-1.23 0.31-1.36 16.57 2.09 2.23 7.79-0.88 0.09-0.16 17.71-0.45 3.41 7.16-1.09 0.07 0.41 18.12-3.94 9.86-1.00 0.00 - - - - - -5.99 1.94-25.91 49.71-11.45-6.28 2.58-6.56 1.58-27.42 51.25-19.02-8.62 - -2.01 0.37-1.06 17.06-2.56 4.83-3.60 3.20-1.15 19.76-2.38 18.57-0.76 0.16-0.82 17.06-1.11 2.81 5.09-2.01 0.57-1.15 20.78 1.40 1.06 7.44-1.35 0.49-1.37 18.53 1.35 1.58 9.29 ( ) CPI WPI 13% 13% CPI 0.84% WPI 1.73% 20.6% CPI WPI 7 7 CPI WPI 13% 20.6% GDP 0.88% -1.35% CPI 0.84% -1.29% WPI 1.73% -2.77%
24 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 二 電價變動對台灣經濟之影響 ( ) 8 9 25.6% 9 1. 25.6 25.16 2.01 1.62 1.21 0.91 0.84 0.83 1.52 2. 3.89% 3. 3 8 % (2.88%) (2.80%) (2.72%) ( ) 8 9 25.6% 9 1. 25.6% -0.44 3.05 (-0.43 ) (-0.42 ) (-0.40 ) (-0.36 ) (-0.16 ) (-0.09 ) 2. (-3.33 ) (-1.02 ) -1.02-0.84 (-0.79 ) ( ) CO2 25.6% CO2 9 1. 25.6% CO2 7.09% 29.37% -3.82% 3.23% 1.65% 2. 25.6% C O 2 (-25.09%) (-12.58%) (-9.81%) (-8.09%) -6.67 (-4.86%) (-2.39%) CO2-2 8. 7 3-22.45 (-21.37%) -20.80% -20.58%
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 25 2.5 3 CO2 8 12.6% CO2 0.51-0.172 0.00 2.17 0.00-19.29-5.01 1.06-0.231-2.33 8.35 1.04-35.64-3.41 1.98-0.960 0.00 2.87 0.00-13.31-10.08 0.61 0.823 0.00-0.81 0.19-16.39-6.05 0.83-0.233-1.52 1.45 1.56-14.68-4.13 0.63-0.164-2.17 0.72 0.83-15.19-9.69 0.44-0.160-2.17 0.72 0.84-15.16-5.84 1.68-0.458-1.39 0.39 1.61-14.48-10.63 1.03-0.266-1.69 0.55 0.00-14.44-8.02 0.54-0.324-2.96-22.06-35.93-12.28-14.67 0.85-0.418-171.77 0.49 0.60-15.58-10.51 - -0.406-169.06 0.49 0.60-15.57-10.50 1.94-0.519-1.73 1.22 1.27-15.15-10.66 1.43-0.354 51.31 0.88 0.00-16.94-2.68 0.98-0.299-2.07 1.31 0.00-15.35-9.32 0.78 0.263-2.90-0.10 5.54-18.08-0.37 1.44-0.350-0.48 2.34 5.15-14.24-2.47 1.37-1.802-1.40-13.09-7.91-29.94-10.91 1.05-0.229-1.56 1.32 1.44-14.62-8.66 0.82-0.180-2.90-0.01-13.30-15.81-8.02 0.54-0.179-2.80 0.10 0.21-15.82-11.47 0.58-0.069-2.95-0.06 0.06-15.89-8.98 0.82 - - - - - - 11.27-1.530-10.16 23.66 4.03-21.06-6.43 16.33-14.189-11.71 27.26 4.64-24.26-7.40 0.65-0.103-2.04 0.85 0.00-14.91-2.48 0.38-0.149-2.79 0.11 0.00-15.78-1.22 0.43-0.076-2.15 0.74 0.85-15.03-12.81 1.52-0.304-1.95 1.90 1.66-14.90-4.22 0.79-0.165-1.95 0.84 1.65-15.00-3.61
26 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 9 25.6% CO2 0.91-0.40 0.00 4.25 0.00-37.76-9.81 2.01-0.42-4.57 16.34 2.05-69.79-6.67 3.82-1.92 0.00 5.63 0.00-26.08-19.73 1.14 1.58 0.00-1.59 0.36-32.11-11.84 1.62-0.43-2.99 2.84 3.05-28.75-8.09 1.20-0.36-4.25 1.40 1.63-29.75-18.98 0.88-0.34-4.25 1.40 1.63-29.68-11.43 3.38-1.02-2.73 0.76 3.15-28.37-20.80 2.04-0.51-3.29 1.08 0.00-28.27-15.72 0.96-0.73-5.80-43.20-70.36-24.05-28.73 1.69-0.84-336.41 0.96 1.17-30.52-20.58 - -0.79-331.08 0.95 1.18-30.50-20.56 3.89-1.02-3.40 2.37 2.49-29.69-20.88 2.80-0.66 100.48 1.71 0.00-33.16-5.26 2.05-0.62-4.05 2.58 0.00-30.06-18.27 1.52 0.52-5.68-0.18 10.85-35.40-0.72 2.88-0.64-0.95 4.58 10.08-27.89-4.83 2.72-3.33-2.75-25.63-15.50-58.64-21.37 2.06-0.41-3.06 2.60 2.82-28.61-16.94 1.55-0.44-5.69-0.01-26.05-30.95-15.71 1.02-0.43-5.49 0.19 0.42-31.00-22.45 1.12-0.07-5.79-0.11 0.10-31.12-17.59 1.57 - - - - - - 22.16-3.05-19.90 46.33 7.89-41.23-12.58 32.03-26.58-22.93 53.39 9.08-47.52-14.50 1.21-0.16-3.98 1.67 - -29.20-4.86 0.84-0.36-5.46 0.21 - -30.89-2.39 0.83-0.09-4.21 1.44 1.67-29.43-25.09 2.92-0.67-3.81 3.73 3.25-29.17-8.28 1.52-0.44-3.82 1.65 3.23-29.37-7.09 ( ) CPI WPI 13.03% 25.6% GDP 1.52% CPI 0.90% WPI 2.18% 25.6% CPI WPI 10 10 CPI WPI 13.03% 25.6% GDP 0.83% 1.52% CPI 0.49% 0.90% WPI 1.18% 2.18%
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 27 肆 因應能源價格波動之因應政策 一 能源價格政策 ( ) 1. 832 1,378 64% 42% 2. 2000 200 300 500 500 2,100 2,600 3. 4. ( 9 ( ) 12) 9 ( )
28 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 133% 2000 16 10 ( ) 11 ( ) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2007 7
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 29 12 5. 6. ( ) 1. 1999-2006 0.38% 0.75% ( 11)
30 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 11 1964-2006 % CPI 1964-1999 10.32 9.73 13.03 5.11 1990-1999 6.14 6.55 5.07 2.73 1999-2005 0.10 1.13-3.10 0.78 1999-2006 0.38 1.21-2.20 0.75 2. 13% 30% 40% ( 20%) 3. (1) (2) 4. 2000 2007 10 20% 200 5% 12 WTO 5. 110 110 6. ( )
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 31 7. 12 0 170 / 1 0 5.25-10.5 / 10 1257 / 5% 0 52.5 / 5 1389 / 5% 0 5.25-10.5 / 5 0 5% 0 5.25-10.5 / 10 26 / 5% 0 52.5 / (LPG) 0 0 5 0 0 (LPG) 0 0 5 0 0 0-10 1087-1216 / 4 0 0-47.25 / APEC 8. (1) (2) ( ) (3) (4) 9. (1) (2) (3) (4)
32 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 伍 結論與建議 (1) (2) (1) 2004-2007 2007 OPEC 1.1 / 2004-2008 1980-2007 1.7% 2001 Federal Funds Rate 2000 6.25% 2004 1.0% 2004 2004 4000 2008 3 2 8 (2) OPEC (3) 2007 4 21 OPEC 50 9 2009 50 2008 30-40 (4) CPI WPI 13% 0.88% 0.34% 6.19% -0.96% -0.88% 0.83% CPI WPI 0.84% 1.73% 25.6% 1.52% 0.44% 7.09% 1.65% 3.23% -3.82% CPI WPI
能源價格波動對國內物價與經濟活動的影響 33 0.90% 2.18% (5) 附註 ( 1) 97 159-179 ( 2) IEA Oil Market Report. March 2008 ( 3) The Economist. The Incredible shrinking fund p.79, Oct.25,2008 ( 4) ( 97) ( 5) 97 7 19 A5 ( 6) 97 9 15 A15 ( 7) 96 4 22 ( 8) The Economist. The Incredible shrinking fund p.79, Oct.25,2008 ( 9) 96 4 22 參考文獻中文部份 1. ( 94) 2. ( 89) EPA-89-FA11-03-262 3. 92 4. 94 CO2 1999-2020 94 5 51-54 5. 94 6. ( 94) 7. 95 NSC94-2415-H-001-013 8. 96 9. 97) 10. 97 ) 159-179 11. ( 97) 12. ( 85) 85 13. 96 4 22 14. 97 7 19 A5 15. 97 9 15 A15
34 中央銀行季刊第三十一卷第一期民國 98 年 3 月 英文部份 1. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008 2. Ho, C.-S., C.-F. Lin, and J.-S. Wang (2001), The Econometric Analysis Trade Relationship in the Asia-Pacific Area, International Conference on Trade, Investment, and Industrial Policy in the Asia-Pacific Region, Taipei: Department of International Business Soochow University. 3. International Energy Agency, IEA (http://www.iea.org/) 4. Jorgenson, D. W. and D. T. Slesnick (1983), Individual and Social Cost-of-Living Indexes, in W.E. Diewert and C. Montmarquette, (eds), Price Level Measurement, 241-323, Ottawa: Statistics Canada. 5. Jorgenson, D. W. and D. T. Slesnick (1984), Aggregate Consumer Behavior and the Measurement of Inequality, Review of Economic Studies, 51(3), 369-392. 6. Jorgenson, D. W. (1984), Aggregate Consumer Behavior and the Measurement of Inequality and An Econometric Approach to General Equilibrium Analysis, Taipei: Institute of Economics, Academic Sinica. 7. Jorgenson, D. W. and C. Y. Liang (1985), A Study of Energy-Economic Model of Taiwan, Project Report submitted to Energy committee, Ministry of Economic Affairs. 8. Liang Chi-Yuan, (1983), "A Study on the Translog Model of Aggregate Consumer Demand for Energy in Taiwan", The Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Academia Economic Papers, 11(2), 167-218. 9. Liang, Chi-Yuan and D.W. Jorgenson (2003) "Effect of Ene rgy Tax on CO2 Emission and Economic Development of Taiwan, 1999-2020," in Robert Mendelsohn, Daigee Shaw and Ching-Cheng Chang (eds.), Global Warming in the Asian Pacific, Edward Edgar Publishing Co. 10. The Incredible shrinking fund, The Economist., Oct.25,2008, p.7