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(01112.HK/1112 HK) 2011 7 13 http://research.kgi.com V w 852.2878.6898 x stephen.wang@kgia.com V Coordinator w 086.21.6125.8649 7 13 () 12 () / (%) (percentile,%) -12/11 (%) L 16.74 25.18 50.4 75 0.1 Euromonitor 2010-2015 1.5 2.5 17.3% 28.1% AC Nielson 2007-2012 225 / CAGR 43% 100 M -12/11 () 3.4-12/11 (x) 4.1-12/11 (%) N 52 ( / ): :/ ( ): (%): 10.1 16.7 10.1/1,293 602 25.3 (%): 21.0 3M ( ): (3,6,12M) (%) (3,6,12M) (%) 1.1 38; 57; 60 51; 65; 63 O 1999 2003 2006 2010 46.6 2,700 2010 2010 64% 25% 8% 3% CEO 21.03% 25.18 50.4% 2011-2012 EPS 0.64 0.98 2011-2012 PE 21.9x 14.3x 2011 PEG 0.6x(002570.SZ) (01717.HK) 2.3x 1.4x 2011 PEG1.0x 25.18 21.6% 50.4% 12 31 EBITDA (Rmb ) (Rmb ) (Rmb ) (Rmb ) (Rmb ) (Rmb) 2010A 1,234 877 330 337 266 0.44 2011F 1,843 1,290 476 485 384 0.64 2012F 2,788 1,924 730 743 589 0.98 2013F 4,128 2,807 1,053 1,066 848 1.41 12 31 EV/sales EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA EV/Inv. C (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) 2010A 5.6 21.1 20.6 29.6 4.2 29.0 2011F 3.5 13.5 13.2 21.9 3.1 20.8 2012F 2.1 8.1 8.0 14.3 2.4 26.2 2013F 1.3 5.0 5.0 9.9 1.7 26.2 () () 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 (10) Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1

P 1999 2003 2006 2007 100 100 / 2010 46.6 2,700 15 2010 64% 25% 8% 3% CEO 21.03% / 2011-2013 YOY 49.4% 51.3% 48.0% EPS 0.64 0.98 1.41 YOY 44.5% 53.3% 44.0% 2011-2013 PE 21.9x 14.3x 9.9x 2011 PEG 0.6x A 002570.SZ 2.3x H 01717.HK 1.4x Mead Johnson Nutrition MJN.US 2.0x Danone BN.FP 1.6X Abbott Laboratories ABT.US 1.4x 1.7% 2009 2011 PEG1.0x 25.18 53.4% 2011 PEG EPS PE 2010-2013F 2011 PEG Dvd Yld 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F EPS CAGR X % 0322.HK 23.95 17,180 0.62 0.76 0.96 1.19 38.8 31.6 24.8 20.2 24.4 1.3 1.7 0151.HK * 7.29 12,369 0.23 0.26 0.32 0.38 32.3 27.6 22.8 19.1 19.0 1.4 2.6 1068.HK 21.95 5,112 1.30 1.72 2.10 2.64 16.9 12.8 10.5 8.3 26.5 0.5 1.6 0538.HK () 16.24 2,234 0.41 0.55 0.70 0.89 40.1 29.8 23.2 18.4 29.8 1.0 0.8 0220.HK 4.94 2,282 0.18 0.18 0.24 0.32 27.4 27.1 20.3 15.4 21.3 1.3 1.2 1181.HK 2.50 133 N.A. 0.18 0.23 0.29 N.M. 13.9 10.9 8.7 N.M. N.M. N.A. 26.1 20.5 16.2 13.2 23.6 0.9 1.6 2319.HK 26.95 6,044 0.88 1.11 1.40 1.69 30.7 24.2 19.3 16.0 24.2 1.0 0.9 1230.HK 1.81 817 0.17 0.19 0.22 0.29 10.4 9.7 8.1 6.3 18.3 0.5 2.8 1112.HK * 16.74 1,294 0.67 0.77 1.18 1.70 25.0 21.7 14.2 9.9 36.3 0.6 1.8 1717.HK 2.17 275 0.17 0.14 0.20 0.24 12.5 15.1 10.6 9.1 11.2 1.4 1.1 17.6 20.1 12.6 9.4 24.9 0.7 1.3 0168.HK 46.00 7,753 1.37 1.63 1.94 2.22 33.7 28.3 23.7 20.7 17.6 1.6 0.5 0291.HK 33.05 10,177 1.00 1.09 1.35 1.68 33.0 30.2 24.4 19.7 18.8 1.6 1.6 0506.HK 6.53 2,340 0.17 0.23 0.29 0.36 39.6 28.9 22.4 18.2 29.5 1.0 1.1 0828.HK 2.30 368 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.18 16.4 15.5 13.8 13.0 8.1 1.9 1.4 1115.HK 5100 4.20 1,385 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. 31.8 21.8 17.2 13.9 31.4 1.0 1.1 H 27.4 22.6 17.8 14.5 21.9 1.2 1.5 A 002570.CH 36.06 2,375 1.33 1.22 1.52 1.92 27.2 29.7 23.7 18.8 13.1 2.3 N.A. MJN.US Mead Johnson Nutrition 68.78 14,055 2.42 2.72 3.11 3.44 28.4 25.3 22.1 20.0 12.4 2.0 1.6 BN.FP Danone 50.82 46,396 2.72 3.01 3.33 3.65 18.7 16.9 15.3 13.9 10.3 1.6 N.A. ABT.US Abbott Laboratories 53.29 82,828 4.17 4.60 4.97 5.27 12.8 11.6 10.7 10.1 8.1 1.4 3.7 2269.JT Meiji 3500.00 3,373 170.78 203.07 211.70 230.03 20.5 17.2 16.5 15.2 10.4 1.7 2.4 3920.KS Namyang Dairy 824000.00 560 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. 0.1 ADY.US Feihe 7.35 164 (0.45) 0.72 0.89 N.A. (16.4) 10.2 8.3 N.M. N.M. N.M. 0.0 SYUT US Equity 9.30 533 0.12 (0.74) 0.32 0.72 80.9 (12.7) 29.5 12.9 84.3-0.2 0.0 24.1 11.4 17.1 14.4 25.1 1.3 1.3 * Bloomberg H EPS http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 2

Q AC Nielson 2007-2012 CAGR 43% 200-480 /900 / 2 3 100 CAGR 43 13 14 14 0 <50 / 50-125 / 125-175 / 175-225 / >225 / OEM 60 100 1 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 3

100 85% OEM OEM / 65-70% 20-30% 20-30% 13 85% OEM 100 4,000-6,000 3,000 100 15-20 100 11 100 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 4

R Euromonitor 2010-2015 61% Mead Johnson Danone Abbott Laboritories 2010-2015 [1.7] [1.7] [1.7] 2.2 3.5 16.1 6.1 6.1 60.9 100%OEM 2010-2015 CAGR 19.3 / 10.3 7.8 S 5.3 2.4 1.1 1999 2000 2000 Lallemand 2002 Lallemand Lallemand 2003 Lallemand 2006 Diana Naturals Diana http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 5

Naturals 2008 2006 Laiterie de Montaigu 2008 Laiterie de Montaigu Laiterie de Montaigu 2009 9 2010 5 20 28.15% 21.03% 74.7% / / / 13 17 47 1989-1990 / 11 15 49 1983-1995 1995-2000 1993 1994 6 15 46 1994-1996 1997-2000University of Nebraska-Lincoln 2000-2003University of Nebraska-Lincoln 2003-2005 Xoma (US) LLC 1 55 2009 1997-1998 2000-2009 13 50 1980-1993 1994-1999 1999-2009 100 2008 47 1988-1997 1999 2010 6 28.15% 26.00% 19.55% 11.90% 10.00% 4.40% 1999 74.7% 25.3% 2000.8 TM 2002.5 Lallemand TM 100% SARL Biostime 100% 100% 100% 2003.1 TM 2006.4 100 TM 2007 20007.3 20007.9100 2007.9 TM 2008 2008.7 2009 2009.5 2010 2010.5 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 6

T 2010 Euromonitor 2010 Prepared Baby Food 68% 10% 18% 4% 87% 87% 2010 1 2 1 8 2 7 2 1 1 2 2 1 17 47 44 54 87 93 93 3 3 94 77 85 73 39 50 51 11 4 5 4 3 19 14 2010 4.5 / ASP 11.3 / 4.5 2010 / 30.1 18 10 4 19.6 16.1 12.6 10.7 9.4 5.5 4.5 68 0.3 2010 0.4 2010 / 1.5 1.4 3 1 2 6 10 9 8 11 1.1 0.9 36 38 36 87 76 70 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 52 44 40 17 20 9 3 10 13 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 7

ASP 11.3 / 2010 ASP / ASP 13.3 / 2010 ASP / 26.8 23.5 21.5 17.9 17.8 11.3 11.0 8.4 34.5 28.0 25.3 23.3 21.0 20.8 16.7 13.3 2010 4.0 ASP 0.3 / 4.0 2010 / 27.9 Euromonitor 2010-2015 CAGR 9.5% CAGR 10.5% 2010-2015 CAGR 9.5% 14.0 12.5 10.1 6.9 5.0 4.0 2.1 0.2 30 33 36 40 43 47 CAGR = 9.5% 0.3 2010 / 1.2 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2010-2015 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 2010-2015 CAGR 10.5 8.3 6.7 6.5 2010-2015 CAGR 11% 10% 5% http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 8

CAGR 18.2% 19.3% 20.3% Mead Johnson Danone Nestle SS: VTX NESN 2010-2015 CAGR 11.4 10.3 5.2 2.4 3.3 7.8 4.1 8.4 6.4 5.5 5.3 5.5 3.5 2.4 1.9 1.1 2010-2015 CAGR (0.2) 1.1 0.6 CAGR=18.2% CAGR=19.3% CAGR=20.3% (0.3) IMF 2010-2015 GDP CAGR 9.5% 2010-2015 GDP CAGR 2010 GDP 2 IMF GDP 2010 13.6% 2015 17.2% GDP GDP 2.3 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.7 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.2 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.0 14.8 39.5 38.7 38.0 37.2 36.4 35.6 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.5 5.7 6.6 8.5 9.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 1 GDP 2008 IMF 2010-2015 GDP CAGR 9.5% 3 2010 47% 73% 78% 2015 2020 51% 55% http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 9

2010 84 82 80 78 76 73 67 47 30 2009 16.4 2011 2012 2015 51% 55 51 50 49 48 48 47 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2020F 2009 25.1 4 2010 4.5 3.7 16.4 70% 2.5 1.6 0.4 6 70% 2010 72 70 68 66 66 65 60 59 58 57 19.6 18.4 17.8 17.1 16.5 16.0 16.0 16.2 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.0 32 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F 6 EIU 5 1979 2007 48% 2012 61% http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 10

61 48 36 2003 2007 2012F 7 2010-2015 5 000 49.4% 32.6% 10 000 25 000 1 3 900 / 220 / 70 / 7,920 1,520 5 000 47% 15% 5 000 10 000 16% 5% 2010-2015 5 000 4.4 0.7 0.6 2.9 1.9 4.5 6.9 13.5 17.3 28.1 28.5 27.9 80.8 49.4 32.6 8.6 13.1 36.2 21.0 21.1 2005 2010 2015 2020 <US$5,000 US$5,000-10,000 US$10,000-25,000 US$25,000-45,000 >US$45,000 US$/RMB= 6.8 1 3 (900 / ) 220 / 70 / ( ) 220*3*12=7,920 70*3*12=2,520 () ( ) 1 >US$45,000 45,000 306,000 % 1 3 1 2 US$25,000-45,000 35,000 238,000 % 2 3 1 3 US$10,000-25,000 17,500 119,000 % 3 7 2 4 US$5,000-10,000 7,500 51,000 % 4 16 5 5 <US$5,000 2,500 17,000 % 5 47 15 2008 2007 2008 2007 2.8 0.3 0.2 (2.2) (3.8) (4.7) 2008-2007 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 11

100%OEM Mead Johnson Wyeth 2009 Pfizer US:PFE,Nestle Abbott Laboratories 3Q2009 2008 8 3.1% 3Q2009 8.5% 100%OEM 2007 2009 100%OEM 3Q2009,, 55.0 56.8 55.3 46.7 37.2 35.2 45.5 38.9 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 3Q09 8.3 6.5 4.7 3.1 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 3Q09 100%OEM 2007-2009 6.7 4.7 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.6 0.2 (0.5) (1.1) (3.5) (3.9) (4.2) (4.5) =2008.9-2008.8 (6.4) (3.2) (0.2) (0.8) (1.5) (2.3) 2009-2007 5.9 1.8 1.4 100% OEM 0.9 0.9 0.3 / 2008 10 2009 6 2009 7 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 12

40% 75% 1Q-3Q2009 / 34 20 Oct-08 1) 2) Jun-09 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 11 5 5 10 6 9 100%OEM 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jul-09 7) 1) 40% 75% 2) / / / / 2010 / 55% / 20% 80% 40% 100% OEM 100%OEM Walmart US:WMT 2011 20 10% 2011 1Q2011 1.1 3.0% Walmart Carrefour FR:CA 2011 11% Tesco UK:TSCO 2010 21 2016 80 CAGR 25% 2011 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 13

2005-2010 1.5 1.0 2010 2 1 3 3 4 2 13 7 1 2 8 4 7 5 12 24 10 14 42 50 4 18 33 0.5 0.0 (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) 83 62 55 49 43 41 20% 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 3,000 2010-2013 300-400 10-13% Walmart 225 20 9% Carrefour 176 20 11% 143 2011 - JUSCO 26 7-10 20-30% Tesco 21 2016 80 25% / 2010 9 Tesco Tesco Manchester 6,000 / / / / 2005-2010 / 1.0 2005-2010 / 10 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 14

HippBio s 2010 1 2010 Humana GmbH 2010 7% Humana 2010 Humana Humana 2010 2 Nestle - Milupa - Nestle Nidal 3 Nestle Nidina 4 Hipp Biologico - Hipp Biologico 20% Milupa Aptamil 5 100%OEM Euromonitor 2010-2015 CAGR 18.9% 14.4% ASP 2010-2015 CAGR 3.9% ElCorte Ingles 60% El Corte Ingles Hipp Biologico 20% 2009 Hipp Polska Sp zoo Hipp Bio http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 15

2010-2015 CAGR 18.9% 2010-2015 CAGR 12.6 10.7 9.1 CAGR = 18.9% 7.7 6.5 5.3 2009 13.0 12.1 8.2 6.4 6.4 5.7 5.0 4.8 4.3 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 16.8 1.7 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2010-2015 CAGR 14.4% 2010-2015 CAGR 777 688 607 CAGR = 14.4% 532 461 397 2009 31.8 27.1 17.6 8.3 8.9 3.0 2.3 1.0 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Mead Johnson Abbott Gerber Nestle Hain Celestial Beech-Nut Kroger 2010-2015 ASP CAGR 3.9% ASP/ CAGR 16.2 15.6 CAGR = 3.9% 15.1 14.6 14.0 13.3 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F AC Nielson 2009 Mead Johnson Danone Dumex Pfizer Wyeth S-26 13.0% 12.1% 8.2% 6.4% CR4 39.7%2009 MeadJohnson 31.8% Abbott Laboratories 27.1% Gerber 17.6% Nestle 8.3%CR4 84.8% 100%OEM Wimm-Bill-Dann 25% 2011 2 Pepsi PEP:US Hipp GmbH 38%, Milupa GmbH 21%, Humana Milchunion 5% Meiji 30% 2269:JP http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 16

2010 2009 100%OEM Nestle Wockhardt GlaxoSmithKline Raptakos Brett Abbott Meiji Morinaga Wakodo QP Bean Stalk Snow Namyang Maeil Abbott Il Dong Pasteur Wimm-Bill-Dann Nestle Nutricia Unimilk Kompania Progress Nestle Nutrimental Danone Unilever Abbott 8.2 3.2 1.7 // Walmart Carrefour Hipp Nestle Milupa Humana 2009 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 3 5 10 18 21 21 22 27 25 28 22 32 39 40 42 46 76 73 68 50 40 33 33 26 100%OEM 2007-2009 CAGR 194% 131% 82% 100%OEM 1.7% 2009 3.2% 2009 2009 100%OEM 2007-2009 CAGR 194 100% OEM 131 82 59 42 33 33 29 28 27 7 6 1 (8) 16 25 35 55 26 59 24 39 21 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 17

U 2010 64.3% 6 900g/ 218-238 / 0-36 (1 2 3 ) 8.6 9.5 9.4 9.8 91.4 12.5 78.0 36.3 54.3 42.6 47.6 5.5 3.1 8.6 7.9 58.0 64.3 27.9 24.6 2007 2008 1H09 2009 1H10 2010 (1 2 3 ) 900g/ 278-290 / 0-36 (1 2 3) 900g/ 378-386 / (1 2 3) 900g/ 478-486 / 0-36 11 2010 6 11 62 266 900g/ 286 / 5 ( ) 26 /48 /60 ( ) 36.8 / 7 7.4 176 / 6.8 8 / / 300g/ 98 / 4 / 36g/ ( ) 6 39.8 / 66.0 / / 36g/ ( ) 6 39.8 / 66.1 / / 30g/ / ( ) 49.2 / 23 50 118 / (200ml) (200ml) (125ml) 98 ; 98 ; 138 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 18

(%),, 4.8 (5) (16), 9.1 (5) (26) 5.6 (4) (14),, 9.2 (5) (31),, 15.2 (10) (34) 5.5 (5) (29) 4 (1) (5), 11.8 (7) (31),,,,,,,,,, (8) (41) 16.8, 7.7 (4) (26) 10.6 (8) (13) VIP VIP 2010 VIP 3,687 1,716 100 301 65% 20% 15% 2010 46.6 2008-2010 123.5% 2010 2,700 VIP (1,716) 65% 20% 15% 3% 62% 14% 1% VIP (3,687) 100 (301) 2008 2010 CAGR 123.5% 93,171 214,452 465,536 2008 2009 2010 C AGR = 123.5% 2,700 / 2,700 1,665 959 1,044 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007-2010 CAGR 87.1% 147.7% http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 19

2007-2010 CAGR 87.1% CAGR 1,234 70% 70.2 67.3 69.3 CAGR = 87.1% 559 58.9 188 326 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 1H10 2007-2010 CAGR 147.7% CAGR 73.2 72.8 266 70.8 71.1 108 CAGR = 147.7% 17 35 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 81.9 76.5 74.9 73.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 68.4 67.3 64.0 2008 2009 1H10 AC Nielson / 175-225 2007 28% 2012 35% 2007 15010 201229060 140 50 2007-2012 CAGR 43% 14% 250-480 /900 / http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 20

1 2 18 28 35 23 27 25 29 25 24 34 19 10 2003 2007 2012F <50 / 50-125 / 125-175 / 175-225 / >225 / 0-99 100-149 150-199 200-249 249-299 >300 A Meiji Cherish Nestle Lactogen Nan Nan Super Danone Dulac Wyeth S-26 Abbott Similac Similac HiQ+ 6 5 4 3 3 1 15 9 6 11 4 4 2003 2007 2012F 29 17 15 1 2 CAGR 43,, 0 13 14 14 100 mama100.com http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 21

/ 100 100 100 / OEM 1 OEM 60 2 / ROE 3 OEM Lallemand 100 Diana Naturals Laiterie de Montaigu 70 Meiji Nestle Danone Wyeth Abbott http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 22

100 85% OEM OEM / 65-70% 20-30% 20-30% OEM 73 12 19 16 Lallemand Lallemand Inc. 19 8 3 1 Diana Naturals Diana Naturals 20 2008 2009 2010 Laiterie de Montaigu Sarbec Montaigu 1932 Montaigu Sarbec 1972 Sarbec 4 110 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 23

100% OEM 65% 20% 100% 15% 69% 100% 80% 70% 22% 20% 30% 280-480 / 150-250 / 70-150 / 100-200 / 266 70 1,200 540 3,678 VIP 2,000 1,716 28,000 301 100 80,000 100%OEM 100% OEM 2010 6 100% 100 4 5 100 6 100 http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 24

13 85% OEM 100 4,000-6,000 3,000 100 15-20 100 11 100 8 A 7 2011 EPS 0.64 3 2008 2009 2010 12 1 24 2011 VIP 100 20% 20% 30% 03308.HK 2011 1 4 31.5% 002251.SZ 14.3% Walmart POS 4,500 POS 75% POS POS 2011 2010 1,716 2011-2013 3,000 4,000 5,000 YOY 75% 33% 25% http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 25

1H10 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F VIP 2,972 3,687 4,500 5,500 7,000 30,000 20-30% 1,572 1,716 3,000 4,000 5,000 100 172 301 400 600 800 VIP - - 813 1,000 1,500 - - 1,284 1,000 1,000 100 - - 99 200 200 YOY VIP - - 22 22 27 - - 75 33 25 100 - - 33 50 33 73.2 72.8 70.8 71.1 70.0 69.0 68.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 20%-30% 1H11 2011F 2012F 2013F VIP 23 14 8 20 20 15 12 - - 20 13 20 20 15 12 100 - - 12 17 30 30 20 15 2009 1H10 2010 1H11F 2011F 2012F 2013F 66 65 65 67 64 60 59 VIP 3 3 2 1 1 VIP 62 64 62 59 58 12 20 20 22 25 27 28 22 15 15 11 11 13 14 14 9 9 11 12 100 1 2 2 2 2 Montaigu 2011 1 Montaigu 5% 5% 1 Lallemand 2013 5% 2011 2010 1.1 70.0% http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 26

12 31 () 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 283 1,902 2,344 2,842 3,554 254 1,862 2,298 2,801 3,520 140 1,728 1,988 2,451 3,080 81 106 250 250 300 4 5 20 40 60 29 23 40 60 80 30 40 46 42 33 0 0 0 0 0 22 31 36 32 23 8 9 10 10 10 113 242 313 379 476 113 236 304 371 470 40 66 100 150 220 1 0 4 1 0 73 171 200 220 250 0 6 10 7 6 0 0 4 1 0 0 6 6 6 6 171 1,660 2,031 2,464 3,077 0 5 5 5 5 40 1,411 1,411 1,411 1,411 131 244 615 1,048 1,661 0 0 0 0 0 12 31 () 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F (% ) 71.7 120.7 49.4 51.3 48.0 163.5 186.5 44.2 53.6 44.1 EBITDA 174.4 180.9 44.0 53.1 43.6 208.9 145.3 44.5 53.3 44.0 -- -- 44.5 53.3 44.0 (%) 70.8 71.1 70.0 69.0 68.0 20.6 26.7 25.8 26.2 25.5 EBITDA 21.4 27.3 26.3 26.6 25.8 19.4 21.5 20.8 21.1 20.5 47.2 24.3 18.1 22.7 26.5 83.6 29.0 20.8 26.2 30.6 \ (%) 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash (X) -- -- -- -- -- (X) 236.3 -- 132.9 521.0 5,019.2 Cash Flow Int. Coverage (X) -- -- -- -- -- Cash Flow/Int. & ST Debt (X) 190.2 -- 77.3 444.0 4,103.0 (X) 2.2 7.9 7.6 7.5 7.5 (X) 1.5 7.4 6.7 6.9 6.8 ( ) (108) (934) (1,851) (2,214) (2,764) (Rmb) -- 0.44 0.64 0.98 1.41 -- 0.45 0.66 1.00 1.44 -- 2.77 3.38 4.11 5.13 -- 2.06 3.07 4.65 6.88 EBITDA\shr -- 0.55 0.79 1.22 1.75 -- 0.02 0.26 0.39 0.56 (X) 2.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 2.4 1.5 4.0 5.2 5.3 52.9 31.4 49.5 32.7 26.5 25.9 19.5 19.8 19.6 19.5 29.3 13.5 33.7 18.3 12.4 12 31 () 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 559 1,234 1,843 2,788 4,128 163 356 553 864 1,321 396 877 1,290 1,924 2,807 281 547 815 1,193 1,754 115 330 476 730 1,053 1 2 4 4 6 1 2 4 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 118 334 483 740 1,066 10 68 99 152 219 108 266 384 589 848 EBITDA 120 337 485 743 1,066 (Rmb) -- 0.44 0.64 0.98 1.41 12 31 () 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 95 376 281 631 872 108 266 384 589 848 5 7 9 12 14 (18) 104 (112) 30 10 0 0 0 0 0 (7) (17) (15) (8) (5) (4) (16) (14) (8) (5) 0 0 0 0 0 (2) (1) (1) 0 0 Free Cash Flow 88 359 265 623 866 (26) 1,229 (5) (160) (236) (26) 1,224 (13) (156) (234) 1 (1) 7 (4) (2) (0) 6 0 0 0 62 1,588 260 462 630 ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) 12 31 1- + + = 2009A 28.3% 0.9% 50.2% 20.6% 2010A 28.3% 0.6% 44.4% 26.7% 2011F 29.5% 0.5% 44.2% 25.8% 2012F 30.6% 0.4% 42.8% 26.2% 2013F 31.7% 0.3% 42.5% 25.5% 12 31 1/ + + = 2009A 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.5 2010A (0.0) 0.0 0.0 (1400.2) 2011F 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.4 2012F 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.3 2013F 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.7 12 31 x x 1 - = ROIC 2009A 20.6% 9.5 91.7% 179.4% 2010A 26.7% (1400.2) 79.5% (29764.0%) 2011F 26.7% (1400.2) 79.5% (29752.5%) 2012F 25.8% 12.4 79.5% 255.4% 2013F 26.2% 17.3 79.5% 360.1% http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 27

317 2502-2504 200051 2014 A 24D1 518008 104 700 886.2.2181.8888 886.2.8501.1691 852.2878.6888 852.2878.6800 8th - 11th floors Asia Centre Building 173 South Sathorn Road Bangkok 10120 Thailand 66.2658.8888 66.2658.8014 (OP) (N) (U) (NR) (R ) (Excessive Return) ( ) 40% ( ) 40% 40% ( ) 40% / * = ( /) 1 / http://research.kgi.com 2011 7 13 28