32 4 2008 7 Vol1 32, No1 4 July 2008 1 Population Research 3,,,,, : ;,,, : ; ; ; ;, :100871 2004 (,2004a,b),, 1. 8,, 1990,,,,,,, 4,,, 1,,, ( TFR) 2. 1, 1 TFR 1990, (low fertility, be2 low2replacement fertility),, 3 (05JJD840002), 2000 2006,
2 32,,,, 211, 1980,, (implosion, ),, : (lowest - low fertil2 ity), 1. 3 TFR ( Kohler, Billari and Ortega, 2002) ; (very low fertility), 1. 5 TFR (Caldwell and Schindlmayr, 2003), (,2005),,, (2004) (2004), TFR 1. 0 2, 2000 1. 22,, 1995 TFR 113 115,, ( ), TFR,, 30 % 40 %, 50 %, TFR 118 18 %, 1990 TFR 115 (,2004a) 2000 TFR 2005, TFR 1996 115,2000 114, 3 2006,1995 2003 TFR 114, 2005 TFR, 2000 TFR, 2000 TFR 115, 115? 115 118,,, 1970,,, 2006 (2008) TFR 2001, 2001 2003 TFR 1. 406 1. 347 1. 299 2004 TFR, 2005 TFR 1. 4, 2005 TFR 1. 736,,2006 TFR 1. 8
4 3,,,,, 1984,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (2001 1. 7 ) 115,,,,, 3 1. 8, TFR,,,,, 1990, TFR TFR 65 %, TFR 30 %, TFR 5 % 30 %, 1990,, 35 39 35 1990,, (2004), (,2004b),,,,,
4 32,, 6,,,, 2000 35 39, 10 ( 1980 ), (,2004b) 35, 5,,2000 35 1175 2000 TFR, 2005 1155 2005 TFR, 1990,,, TFR,,,,,,,,,, 4 1990,, TFR, TFR,,,,,,Bongaart s Potter (1978),,,,,,,,,,,,,, TFR, ; 2001 2006 1. 7,,, TFR,,,,
4 5,, 1997 51 44 %, 1997,, ( United Nations, 2000) Bongaart s ( 3 6 ), TFR, TFR = 211,, TFR, TFR, TFR,, TFR ( Bonga2 art s Feeney (1998) ),,,,, Bongaart s(2001,2002), TFR Morgan (2003), Morgan : : Fu TFR = Fu Fr Fg Ft Fi Fc I P unwanted fertility, Ft tempo effect, Fr replacement effect, Fi infecundity, Fg gender preferences, Fc competition, TFR Total Fertility Rate, IP Intended Parity,, TFR 1 1 ( F),,,, : ;, ( ),,,,,,,, (,2002), 1997,, (2000),, 2001
6 32, 1178 (, 2005) 1. 70, 9 9 2006 (,2007), 1173, 2001,,2006 1178 1160, 1170 1174 1177,,,,,,,,,, 1105 1102,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) (2005a :122 124), (2006),,,,,,,,,,,,, 2000 11619,2005 1 % 1201 5,,,,, (133. 5 101. 9) ;, 1 109, 121, 144,, 95 %, 2. 94,, 2, 1/ 3
4 7 Bongaart s Feeney (1998), TFR (, ) TFR (,2000), TFR TFR L utz (2003), 2000 TFR 115, TFR 118, TFR 013 1997 2001 ( ) :1980, TFR TFR 01171 ( ) ; 1990 1995, TFR TFR 01109, 1996 1999, TFR 11 307, TFR 11538, 1990 TFR 01232, TFR TFR 85 %( Ft ) TFR, - 01086, - 01131, - 01015, 3619 % 5616 % 615 %,,, 1. 8 TFR ( 30 % ), TFR = 11 8/ 01849 = 2112, 2000, 2001 117, 35 39 1185!,,,,,,, 10 % 15 %, 20 %,,1990 1990 ( 3193 ),, (,2000) 2001, 17 %(,2005),,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Bongaats Feeney (1998) TFR, TFR, TFR,
8 32, 0,,,,,,, ; Hagewen Morgan (2005) - -, ;, ;,,,, 1105 1102, 0198, 1997 0. 98, 2001 1996 1999 0185, 1996 1999 TFR 1131 2001 11 70 ( ) TFR,, TFR = Fu Fr Fg Ft Fi Fc IP 1. 31 = 1. 05 1. 02 Fg 0. 85 0. 98 0. 98 1. 70 (1) = (1. 061) Fg (0. 816) 1. 70 (2) = Fg (0. 866) 1. 70 (3) Fg = 0. 890 IP/ TFR = 1. 298, Fu Fr = 11061, 3 ( ) Ft Fi Fc = 0. 816 5 01866, 01890, 11 %,4 01727, IP TFR 11298,, 30 %,,,, TFR,,, (2007),,,
4 9 TFR, : > >, 3, ( ) ( ),,, IP ( ) 1. 70 ( IP ), Fg = 0. 890 ( Fg ),, TFR = 1. 31/ 0. 890 = 1. 472,,,,,, 5,, 2000, 1 (,2006), 2005 1 %, 1147 (,2008),? (2004,2005), (2005b),,,,,,, (,2005a,b),,,, (2006) 2000,,,,, (,2008), 2000 2005 ( 1),,,,, 1,,, : TFR TFR, ;
10 32 TFR TFR, 1 2000 11228 01891 11123 11425 01951 11 330-01 060-01095 2005 11365 01939 11319 11683 01892 11 537 01 047-01146 2000, TFR,,, TFR 2000 TFR (2005b),,, ( ), ( ), 2005 TFR, TFR TFR,,,, TFR, TFR TFR,,,,,2000, 2000,, ( ),,, 6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
4 11,,,, : 1 Bongaarts, John. (2001). Fertility and reproductive preferences in post - transitional societies. In R. A. Bulatao & J. B. Casterline ( Eds. ), Global fertility transition. New York : Population Council. 260 281. 2 Bongaarts, John. (2002). The end of fertility transition in the developed world. Population and Development Re2 view, 28, 419 444. 3 Bongaarts, John and Robert Potter. (1978) Fertility, biology and behavior : an analysis of the proximate determi2 nant s. Academic Press. 4 Bongaarts, John and Griffith Feeney. (1998) On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility. Population and Development Review 24 (2) : 271-291 / ( ).,2000 ;1 5 Caldwell and Schindlmayr. (2003) Expanations of fertility crisis in modernsocieties : a search for commonalities. Population Studies, Vol. 57, No. 3. 241-263. 6 Hagewen and Morgan. (2005) Intended and Ideal Family Size in the United States, 1970 2002. Population and Development Review, Vol. 31, No. 3. 507 527 7 Kohler, Billari and Ortega. (2002) The emergence of lowest - low fertility in Europe during the 1990s. Population and Development Review, Vol. 28, No. 4. 641-680. 8 L utz, W., B. C. O Neill, S. Scherbov. (2003) Europe s population at a turning point. Science, Vol. 299, 1991-1992. 9 Morgan, S. P. (2003). Is low fertility a twenty - first - century demographic crisis? Demography, Vol. 40, No. 4, 589-603. 10 United Nations. (2000) Below replacement fertility. United Nations : New York. 11..,2005 a 12..,2005 b ;4 13,..,2006 ;1 14,. 1990 :?,2007 ;5 15,...,2008-03 16,..,2002 ;5 17,..,2005 ;1 18 1 %,. 2005 1 %.,2007 19. 2006,2007 2. : http :/ / www. chinapop. gov. cn/ zwgk/ gbgg/ t20070321_152715281. html 20..,2000 ;1 21. 1990.,2004 a ; 2 22. 1990.,2004 b ;4 23..,2005 a ;1 24..,2005 b ;4 25..,2004 ;5 26..,2005 ;3 27,. 2006.,2008 ;1
12 32 28..,2004 ;1 29,,,,,. :., 2005 ;4 30,,,... 1997.,2000 :232 237 31,..,2006 ;4 32,. 90.,. ( ).,2004 :714 33,. 1990.,2007 ;1 34 ;....,2006 35. 2006.,2008 36..,2005 ;4 :73 80 37,..,. 1997.,2000 : 81 87 China s Low Fertility and Its Determinants Abstract : China has already attained low fertility ; however, there is uncertainty around the actual fertility. This paper summarizes classification and discussion of low fertility, and reviews methodological issues in estimating fertility or birth under - reporting. Using Bongaart s low fertility model, it is found that childbearing postponement had a signifi2 cant depressing effect on China s total fertility rate ; while the way in which son preference affect s fertility shifted f rom multiple childbearing into sex - selective abortions, thus reducing fertility. Illustrative calculation shows that ignoring other factors depressing fertility would lead to exaggeration of the effect of birth under - reporting on fertility. Finally the paper discusses impact of migration on fertility in areas of origin, areas of destination and for China as a whole. Keywords : Low fertility ; Total fertility rate ; Birth deferment ; Sex preference, Floating population Author : Guo Zhigang is Professor, Chinese Center for Social Development Research and Department of Sociology, Pe2 king University. ( : :2008-05)