T_FSAndVSAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo T_ReportAbstract 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 146.1 237.5 362.5 527.4 705.7 Growth(%) 23.3% 62.5% 52.6% 45.5% 33.8% 47.9 134.8 219.9 328.6 426.3 Growth(%) 41.5% 181.7% 62.9% 49.4% 29.7% (%) 63.2% 65.6% 85.8% 85.9% 86.0% (%) 32.7% 56.8% 60.6% 62.2% 60.3% () 0.19 0.54 0.88 1.32 1.71 () 1.72 2.22 2.94 3.90 4.85 145.9 51.8 31.8 21.3 16.4 16.3 12.6 9.6 7.2 5.8 (%) 11.2% 24.4% 30.1% 33.9% 35.4% ROIC(%) 24.7% 57.0% 78.3% 100.2% 125.4% EV/EBITDA 38.1 22.3 26.6 16.6 12.5 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% T_RankInfo -A -A 36.40 12 32.00 28.40 2008-10-07 T_MarketInfo 7,054.56 3,935.83 248.40 138.59 22.35/71.98 % 43.99% 13,353 12 % 12.94 31.63 113.11 9.23 4.56 50.78 T_Analyst 021-68766073 honglu@essences.com.cn T_RelatedReport 1
1. 2. 2
2.1. 3
2008 2007 2006 2005 (%) 5.77 5.92 7.65 5.77 (%) 78.48 76.04 74.97 72.33 (%) 100 92.8 100 73.83 2008 2007 2006 2005 13.61 13.85 9.79 16.98 13.4 13.66 9.58 16.51 / 2.83 4.52 1.67 1.87 / 2.5 2.55 1.72 2.03 2008 2007 2006 2005 () 112.5 84.07 118.96 135.29 () 57.86 30.13 52.56 62.08 () 54.64 53.94 66.4 73.21 () 3.11 11.95 6.85 5.8 () 3.29 6.67 5.42 4.92 () 0.33 0.6 0.46 0.41 () 1.51 3.03 2.93 2.46 () 0.25 0.45 0.34 0.3 2004 2005 2006 2007 0.2 0 0.5 1 ()() 0.2 0.1 0.16 0.1 ()() 0.16 0.09 0.144 0.09 43.1% 24.5% 27.7% 9.2% 1.45% 1.08% 1.26% 0.28% () 6,900 8,280 8,280 12,420 4
5 2.2. Nature Biotechnology Nature Biotechnology
Ernst&Young 6
7
2.3. 2.3.1. 8
9
10
11
EPS PEX 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E WX US 10.81 0.42 0.74 0.97 1.30 26 15 11 8 12
13 2.3.2. CRO CRO CRO
14
15
16
2.4. 2.4.1. Cutting Edge Information Avastin Herceptin 与 Rituxan Datamonitor 17
2.4.2. - 2.4.3. 18
19
20
21
22
23
3. 240 44.44% 0.97% 60 11.11% 0.24% 48 8.89% 0.19% 48 8.89% 0.19% 48 8.89% 0.19% 48 8.89% 0.19% 48 8.89% 0.19% 540 100% 2.17 24
4. 4.1. 4.2. 25
4.3. 26
5. () ROE(%) EPS PE PEG PB PS 07 07 08E 09E 07 08E 09E 08 1 002007.SZ 74 20 0.55 0.81 1.18 61 40 28 1.8 0.8 0.6 8 19 002022.SZ 60 29 0.56 0.56 0.77 51 34 25 1.0 0.7 0.6 11 13 002030.SZ 12 12 0.28 0.24 0.34 34 25 18-42.0 0.7 0.4 4 5 002252.SZ 33 44 0.68 0.66 0.90 41 32 23 0.5 1.1 0.6 5 9 600161.SH 48 17 0.32 0.26 0.40 46 38 25 4.7 1.8 0.4 8 8 600867.SH 43 6 0.21 0.29 0.48 56 40 24-15.6 1.1 0.4 3 8 45 21 0.43 0.47 0.68 48 35 24 2.0 1.0 0.5 7 10 600276.SH 176 28 0.96 0.89 1.22 43 38 28-6.5 3.5 0.7 10 7 002038.SZ 69 28 1.07 0.92 1.41 51 30 20 0.8 0.4 0.4 11 22 6. 08E 09E 08 08 2 6.1. 27
6.2. 6.3. 28
T_FSAndVS 2008-10-8 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 146.1 237.5 362.5 527.4 705.7 53.7 81.6 51.5 74.4 98.8 23.3% 62.5% 52.6% 45.5% 33.8% 1.3 2.5 4.0 5.8 7.8 42.1% 155.4% 73.4% 55.6% 31.0% 9.5 10.8 12.7 17.9 24.0 41.5% 181.7% 62.9% 49.4% 29.7% 31.8 48.7 46.3 64.3 86.1 EBITDA 38.6% 158.3% 71.4% 54.9% 30.8% -3.5-2.2-2.5-3.0-3.6 EBIT 55.3% 168.7% 74.3% 56.0% 31.1% 2.2-0.5-0.3-0.4-0.4 NOPLAT 50.3% 196.3% 63.8% 49.8% 29.8% - 13.9-16.0 - - 28.3% 19.2% 17.1% 3.7% 49.4% 3.5 29.0 7.0 8.0-11.7% 29.2% 32.2% 32.7% 24.4% 54.6 139.5 241.8 376.4 493.0 0.8 9.6 2.5 3.5 3.8 63.2% 65.6% 85.8% 85.9% 86.0% 55.4 149.1 244.3 379.8 496.8 37.4% 58.7% 66.7% 71.4% 69.9% 7.5 14.3 24.4 51.3 70.5 32.7% 56.8% 60.6% 62.2% 60.3% 47.9 134.8 219.9 328.6 426.3 EBITDA/ 38.3% 60.8% 68.3% 72.8% 71.1% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E EBIT/ 35.0% 57.8% 66.0% 70.8% 69.4% 205.7 261.9 418.5 673.1 756.8-31.0 14.8 - - 123 119 96 45 22 29.7 41.6 61.9 87.6 137.0 238 195 168 150 162 0.7 0.1 0.3 2.0 4.0 789 601 539 536 538 102.8 105.3 130.6 153.1 180.8 79 59 57 60 67 7.5 6.1 15.6 18.2 44.8 20 11 11 12 16 0.4 0.0-3.0-2.0 55.0 1,070 795 673 614 592 - - - - - 511 387 300 226 215 - - - - - - 6.9 15.5 20.0 25.0 ROE 11.2% 24.4% 30.1% 33.9% 35.4% - - - - - ROA 10.3% 23.0% 28.6% 31.9% 33.0% 49.6 107.2 85.6 45.0 42.0 ROIC 24.7% 57.0% 78.3% 100.2% 125.4% 43.9 3.3 2.6 2.1 1.9 21.3 18.6 18.7 20.3 22.6 6.5% 4.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 21.8% 20.5% 12.8% 12.2% 12.2% 462.6 586.6 768.9 1,030.6 1,291.1-2.4% -0.9% -0.7% -0.6% -0.5% - - - - - / 25.9% 24.1% 15.6% 15.0% 15.1% 16.2 15.0 17.4 23.1 28.6-0.7 1.0 1.6 2.0 7.7% 5.9% 5.1% 6.0% 6.7% 19.2 16.5 18.6 35.4 53.7 8.3% 6.3% 5.4% 6.4% 7.2% - - - - - 9.79 13.85 17.26 15.51 13.99-2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 9.58 13.66 16.83 15.20 13.45 35.4 34.7 39.2 62.1 86.3-14.59-63.82-95.73-124.45-135.95 0.6 0.7 2.0 3.5 5.0 82.8 124.2 248.4 248.4 248.4 DPS() 0.03-0.18 0.26 0.34 343.8 427.1 479.3 716.6 951.4 17.3% 0.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 427.2 551.9 729.7 968.5 1,204.8 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 47.9 134.8 219.9 328.6 426.3 EPS() 0.19 0.54 0.88 1.32 1.71 7.4 9.9 8.4 10.4 12.4 BVPS() 1.72 2.22 2.94 3.90 4.85 2.2-0.5-0.3-0.4-0.4 PE(X) 145.9 51.8 31.8 21.3 16.4 - -13.9-16.0 - - PB(X) 16.3 12.6 9.6 7.2 5.8-3.2-2.9-1.5-2.5-3.0 P/FCF - 77.6 40.5 22.1 27.0-3.5-29.0-7.0-8.0 - P/S 47.8 29.4 19.3 13.2 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 EV/EBITDA 38.1 22.3 26.6 16.6 12.5 16.4-23.1-58.9-35.3-147.6 CAGR(%) 90.0% 46.8% 30.5% -100.0% -100.0% 60.8 88.4 143.9 292.7 287.6 PEG 1.6 1.1 1.0-0.2-0.2 21.2 81.1-17.4-13.8-37.1 ROIC/WACC -6.8-13.2-29.1-54.4-72.2 REP Wind.NET 29
T_AuthorInfo 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-68763879 zhangqin@essences.com.cn 021-68765206 nanfang@essences.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essences.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essences.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essences.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essences.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essences.com.cn 0755-82558084 lijin@essences.com.cn : 518026 : 200122 : 100034 30