36 6 2012 11 Vol. 36 No. 6 November 2012 13 Population Research 30 710061 200433 Development -driven or Policy -shaped Fertility Decline An Analysis of the Two -child Program in Yicheng County Wei Yan Zhang Li Abstract Over the last three decades China s fertility has declined consistently and substantially to the below - replacement level. Main forces shaping such fertility change and their impacts on the adjustment of population - control policy have been debated in academic circles. Based on a careful study of a venerable two - child program in Yicheng County which has been perceived as an unique case of birth - control experiment for almost thirty years this paper demonstrates that the Yicheng program is an adapted and adjusted but tenacious continuity from the national population control process in terms of the timing of marriage the number of children and the childbearing interval. Fertility outcomes in Yicheng are largely a function of birth rationing even though socioeconomic developments are given as part of the mixture of explanations for fertility decline. Keywords The Yicheng Trial Program The Conditional Two - Child Option Fertility Decline Birth - Control Policy Authors Wei Yan is Professor and Director Institute for Population and Development Studies Xi an University of Finance and Economics and Zhang Li is Professor School of Social Development and Public Policy Fudan University. Email weiyan365@ 163. com
14 36 1 70 5 1. 5 Morgan et al. 2009 Peng 2011 2012 30 Peng 1991 Scharping 2003 Greenhalgh and Winckler 2005 2008 2009 Zheng et al. 2009 Cai 2010 80 1985 30 2 2007 Greenhalgh 1986 Tien 1986 1987 9 1990 10 1995 5 2000 2000 2006 2008 2009
6 15 2010 1994 1995 1996 1996 1996 1997 2000 1995 1997 1995 2000 2009 2000 2008 2009 2009 3 1 50 60 70 70 70 2000 1980 2000 12 12 1. 0 3. 0 1979 1980 1980 80 Greenhalgh 2008 2007 12 Bongaarts and Greenhalgh 1985 1979 12 1979
16 36 1985 7 2 Table 1 1 1970 ~ 1982 Transformation from a Voluntary Family Planning Program into a Mandatory Birth - control Policy 1970-1982 1973 12 1977 9 30 1978 10 26 23 25 25 27 3 ~ 4 2 3 1978 69 1979 3 5 1985 5 ~ 6 1979 4 5 1978 10 2000 69 12 1979 8 11 1979 12 1985 5 2000 1980 9 25 2000 12 1982 12 珮 1997 Scarping 2003 Greenhalgh 2008 Table 2 2 Chronology of Two - Child Program in Yicheng County 1979 12 7-13 1984 1984 4 1984 7 1984 21
6 17 1985 1 14 1985 2 12 1985 1 14 1985 1 14 1985 3 14 1985 3 21 1985 1 14 1985 4 20 108 1984 7 1985 5 9 1985 7 23 1985 7 23 1985 7 25 1988 5 20 1984 40 13 1988 31 1991 6 2003 4 14 6 4 2007 1 17 2007 3 4 1 1 1 1985 3 2007 2
18 36 2 3 4 a. 25 23 b. 24 30 2007 28 c. 5 6 7 8 20 12 2000 12 30 2007 50 100 3000 1920 16 2 20% 5000 40% 20000 7 14 70 1982
6 19 1984 7 1 1989 1985 45 1988 13 1997 1 2 1 Figure 1 1985 1988 Trial Areas for Second Births 1985 1988 珮 1997 3 1 2 3 Scarping 2003 1987 9 10 Bongaarts and Feeney 1998 2000 2003
20 36 5 2 1 2000 30 3 2000 ~ 2011 12. 69 2000 2 1960 3 12 14 4 2000 2000 1 1 2 3 4 Figure 2 2 1949 ~ 2011 Population Size and Birth Rates Yicheng County and Shaanxi Province 1949-2011 2009 1999 3 2 PPR 1985 1985 3 2008 1 2000
6 21 1990 3 1980 ~ 1991 Table 3 TFR TPR and PPP of Yicheng County 1980-1991 PPR 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 + 1980 2. 08 2. 24 0. 99 0. 76 0. 39 0. 09 0. 01 1981 2. 36 2. 39 0. 99 0. 85 0. 43 0. 11 0. 01 1982 2. 34 2. 35 0. 99 0. 86 0. 42 0. 08 0. 01 1983 2. 15 2. 20 0. 99 0. 85 0. 33 0. 03 0. 00 1984 2. 32 2. 37 0. 99 0. 90 0. 38 0. 08 0. 01 1985 2. 02 2. 25 0. 99 0. 94 0. 28 0. 04 0. 00 1986 1. 91 2. 08 0. 99 0. 93 0. 15 0. 01 0. 00 1987 2. 27 2. 28 0. 99 0. 98 0. 28 0. 03 0. 00 1988 2. 21 2. 18 0. 99 0. 97 0. 20 0. 02 0. 00 1989 2. 27 2. 25 0. 99 0. 99 0. 25 0. 03 0. 00 1990 2. 22 2. 23 0. 99 0. 99 0. 23 0. 02 0. 00 1991 2. 20 2. 21 0. 99 0. 98 0. 22 0. 02 0. 00 1996 6 16 24 2007 2009 4 1 5 GDP 1 2 1980 1 2007 6 4 2003
22 36 4 Table 4 Selected Indicators on Not Meeting Birth - control Requirements % 1 2 1985 7. 59 75. 85 27. 89 2. 37 1986 6. 73 71. 45 39. 45 2. 39 1987 7. 15 69. 20 27. 89 2. 37 1988 5. 48 66. 35 44. 82 4. 80 1989 6. 23 64. 74 43. 67 4. 05 1990 6. 32 63. 50 42. 21 3. 19 1991 4. 99 63. 37 42. 01 3. 30 1992 4. 78 64. 89 40. 45 2. 59 1993 4. 01 63. 10 40. 73 2. 19 1994 4. 41 60. 99 38. 29 2. 51 1995 3. 81 61. 14 35. 68 2. 07 1996 4. 17 61. 28 36. 21 1. 58 1997 5. 00 60. 32 36. 54 1. 68 1998 5. 67 60. 47 35. 84 1. 18 1999 5. 65 63. 25 33. 20 1. 20 2000 5. 86 64. 55 28. 38 0. 63 2001 6. 28 67. 93 29. 06 0. 68 2002 5. 63 69. 33 29. 78 0. 43 2003 6. 26 68. 61 27. 90 0. 15 2004 5. 40 70. 56 7. 27 0. 09 2005 5. 80 68. 77 6. 44 0. 10 2006 5. 34 70. 94 6. 69 0. 09 2007 4. 83 73. 50 5. 29 0. 03 2008 4. 64 72. 79 4. 24 0. 06 2009 4. 27 74. 75 3. 68 0. 00 2010 3. 72 69. 21 1. 28 0. 00 1 1 19 2 23 2 3 5 1949 ~ 2011 Table 5 Results of the OLS Regression Models 1949-2011 1 1949 ~ 1980 2 1981 ~ 2011 3 1949 ~ 2011 GDP - 0. 225-0. 003 0. 029 % - 1. 383 *** 0. 306-0. 680 * 3. 210 *** - 0. 159 0. 054-1. 695 *** - 0. 396-1. 834 16. 590 *** 16. 098 * 17. 029 *** R 2 0. 72 0. 16 0. 55 ***p < 0. 001 **p < 0. 01 * p < 0. 05 2009 1999 a b
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