2009 12 21 021-53519888*1902 Zhaobing1704@hotmail.com IPO RMB 32.76-37.80 RMB 40.95-47.25 IPO 27.40 109.60 20% IPO 80% 40.15% 13.65% 12.8% MRQ 98.93% 0.95% 0.05% 0.07% : ZB09-NSP12 300039 2008 22.29% 2008 2007 50.22% 54.88% 97% 6 40.95-47.25 09 65-75 40.95-47.25 32.76-37.80 20% 32.76-37.80 09 52.00-60.00 08 61.81-71.32 12 31. 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 258.05 387.39 483.61 628.24 % 55.03% 50.12% 24.84% 29.91% 44.81 57.65 69.08 88.22 % 114.75% 28.66% 19.82% 27.71% 0.41 0.53 0.63 0.80 109.60 2009 12 21 1
20 90 2006-2008 37.47 44.32 49.40 14.82% 2009-2010 54.71 61.61 2008 22.29% 2009 12 21 2
1 2008 1 2003 5 2 3 30 4 GMP CIOMS 2007 5 2009 12 21 3
2008 8 40.15% 30.13% 13.65% 30.11% 10.24% 2 2007 2006 55.03%2008 2007 50.12% 2007 2006 114.75% 2008 2007 28.66%2009 16.97% 16.51% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 12 21 4
16 97.69%98.50%98.99% 98.93% 97.73%98.45%98.99% 98.94% 3 4 IPO 1 30000 1,610 4,500 3-4 1 1 22,000 2 8,000 30,000 22,000 20,700 50% 70% 108,945 15,581 2009 12 21 5
44.02% 3.88 83.44%82.28%82.03% 81.49% 83.47%82.22%82.03% 81.49% 2008 2007 50.22% 54.88% 97% 2009 1-6 17.43% 16.90%2008 2007 50.49% 50.97% 2007 2006 55.74% 56.15% 1 2 3 30 80.16% 79.42%87.40%100%2006 2009 12 21 6
-2008 06-08 3.54 3.96 4.41 4.86 4.99 4.69 06-08 4.55 2.86 2.48 2.43 2.40 2.05 2007 2008 2006 1 2 2007 2006 2009-2011 19.82%27.71% 35.68% 0.63 0.80 1.09 98% 2006 2009 6 2,674.76 / 3,174.08 / 2009 12 21 7
GMPGAPGLPGCP GSP / 2008 20092010 09 10 43.40 33.10 09 10 65.84 51.53 09 10 14.04 15.08 2009 12 21 8
2 2009-12-18 EPS PE 2008A 2009E 2010E 2008A 2009E 2010E 002118 18.66 0.44 0.55 0.67 42.41 34.23 27.76 600285 11.44 0.05 0.22 0.28 228.80 52.09 40.23 600422 10.28 0.10 0.18 0.29 100.59 56.64 34.89 600436 36.44 1.01 0.95 1.09 36.08 38.56 33.30 600572 11.32 0.28 0.32 0.39 40.43 35.47 29.33 89.66 43.40 33.10 CHINA PHARMACEUTICAL 1093 HK 5.04 0.55 0.68 0.52 9.23 7.43 9.64 UNITED LABORATORIES 3933 HK 4.55 0.32 0.38 0.37 14.24 12.04 12.40 SAWAI PHARMACEUTICAL 4555 JP 5120.00 10.66 250.03 301.54 480.36 20.48 16.98 KAKEN PHARMACEUTICAL 4521 JP 772.00 3.82 67.23 67.23 202.30 11.48 11.48 NIPPON SHINYAKU 4516 JP 1049.00 4.57 75.89 66.61 229.66 13.82 15.75 TOWA PHARMACEUTICAL 4553 JP 4320.00 15.10 267.61 316.46 286.12 16.14 13.65 NICHI-IKO PHARMACEUTICAL 4541 JP 2325.00 7.44 122.96 147.83 312.36 18.91 15.73 SEIKAGAKU CORP 4548 JP 997.00 3.82 58.10 65.39 260.93 17.16 15.25 VIROPHARMA INC VPHM US 8.15 6.60 0.92 0.33 1.23 8.88 24.85 199.60 14.04 15.08 WindBloomberg 3 2009-12-18 EPS PE 2008A 2009E 2010E 2008A 2009E 2010E 002275 27.27 0.67 0.74 0.87 40.70 37.03 31.19 002287 24.58 0.37 0.38 0.46 66.43 64.19 53.33 002294 85.69 1.38 1.60 2.17 62.09 53.66 39.49 300003 52.11 0.55 0.72 0.97 94.45 72.79 53.96 300006 34.30 0.48 0.44 0.57 71.46 77.10 59.99 300009 42.75 0.57 0.50 0.65 75.00 84.92 66.20 300015 49.00 0.61 0.65 0.86 80.33 75.77 57.26 300016 35.00 0.57 0.49 0.59 61.40 70.88 59.40 300026 90.60 1.77 1.61 2.11 51.19 56.24 42.96 67.01 65.84 51.53 Wind 2009 12 21 9
09 65-75 40.95-47.25 20% 32.76-37.80 09 52.00-60.00 08 61.81-71.32 2009 12 21 10
1 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 258.05 387.39 483.61 628.24 847.59 218.24 327.58 402.34 524.45 706.76 45.73 69.60 87.05 119.37 169.51 1.84 2.75 3.45 11.31 12.71 150.35 224.80 270.82 345.53 457.70 17.37 27.21 39.06 45.72 63.22 0.84 1.83 1.96 2.52 3.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39.81 59.82 81.27 103.79 140.82 11.46 9.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.15 1.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.13 68.44 81.27 103.79 140.82 5.32 10.79 12.19 15.57 21.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 44.81 57.65 69.08 88.22 119.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 44.81 57.65 69.08 88.22 119.70 0.41 0.53 0.63 0.80 1.09 Wind 2 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 253.89 383.28 479.11 622.84 840.83 3.43 3.35 3.86 4.63 5.78 0.19 0.39 0.47 0.59 0.77 0.25 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.21 257.77 387.21 483.61 628.24 847.59 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 45.14 68.89 86.24 118.34 168.17 0.52 0.61 0.69 0.88 1.16 0.02 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 45.73 69.60 87.05 119.37 169.51 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 56.15% 50.97% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 12.15% -2.33% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 2009 12 21 11
2.60% 103.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% -57.16% -29.50% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 82% 82% 82% 81% 80% 85% 82% 82% 81% 80% 88% 81% 80% 80% 80% 84% 86% 85% 83% 81% 2009 12 21 12
Superperform 20% Outperform 10% In-Line ±10% Underperform 10% Attractive 5% Neutral ±5% Cautious 5% 13