37 6 2007 11 () Journal of Zhejiang University( Humanities and Social Sciences) Vol. 37, No. 6 Nov. 2007,, (, 310028) [ ] 30 51,2020,,,,,,, ;,,2020, [ ] ; ; [] C924. 2 [] A [] 1008-942X(2007) 06-0157 - 11 Discussions on Systematic Simulation and Comparative Selections of Chinaπs Fertility Policy : One Generational One2Child Policy YIN Wen2yao, YAO Yin2mei, L I Fen ( Pop ul ation and Development Research I nstit ute, Zhej i ang U ni versit y, H angz hou 310028, Chi na) Abstract : The One Generational One2Child Policy in t his paper is defined as as long as t he couple is the only child of his/ her parent s or one of the couple is t he only child of his/ her parent s, the couple and t heir children could give two birt hs. This paper simulates abo ut o ne hundred year long trends of pop ulation develop ment of 51 possibilities of fertility policy adopted for t he whole country and stepwise balanced the advantages and disadvantages between t he pop ulation control and t he age struct ure of pop ulation bot h quantitatively and qualitatively. Our st udy shows t hat if The One Generatio nal One2Child Policy co ntinues to t he year 2020, t here will be no significant advantages on t he improvement of the age struct ure of pop ulation compared to the Two2Child [] 2006204210 [ ]http :// www. journals. zju. edu. cn/ soc [] 1. (19462 ),,,,, ; 2. (19632 ),,,, ; 3. (19682 ),,,,
158 () 37 fertilit y policy. However, t here will be big differences between t he age2specific pop ulatio n numbers and t he total pop ulation ; t he former would be stable at t he moderate or little smaller size of t he pop ulation t han t he later one. To st udy Chinaπs fertility policy and to establish t he Pop ulation develop ment strategy, we sho uld co nsider how to avoid t he over2aging pop ulatio n and t he co mparative stabilit y of age st ruct ure as well. We sho uld not o nly p ur sue t he short2term tactical advantages, lo ng2term st rategic advantages are more important. Co nsidering t he fact t hat China has t he largest pop ulation in t he world and t he needs to improve the age2struct ure of t he pop ulation, better selectio ns of fertilit y policies in China will be t he larger and t he moderate One Generatio nal One2Child Policy adopted in 2020. There will be 9 advantages in fairness, feasibility, maneuverabilit y if t his fertilit y policy is adop ted. Mo re importantly, t his policy will initiate a natural landing of t he current family planning policy in the f ut ure. Key words : pop ulation strategy ; fertility policy ; one generation one2child policy ( ) [1 ],,2,, 2020, ; 2020,15 2020,,,,,,,2020 1 : 1.,, ;,2015 2020, (1 ) 2., (1 ) 3.,2005-2050,,(1 ),,,,,(1) 2015,2020 1. 4,,,2020,,,,
6,,: 159 1 : % 2005 29. 91 40. 42 42. 29 42. 88 44. 70 56. 63 49. 51 43. 41 34. 07 33. 35 33. 64 40. 81 40. 65 38. 76 40. 50 2010 28. 56 40. 22 41. 93 42. 43 43. 08 57. 57 49. 79 43. 45 33. 78 34. 29 32. 78 40. 66 40. 32 38. 32 39. 38 2015 26. 72 39. 53 41. 00 41. 47 41. 25 58. 91 50. 46 44. 07 34. 02 36. 06 31. 65 40. 13 39. 57 37. 37 37. 94 2020 24. 76 38. 55 39. 73 40. 31 40. 05 60. 57 51. 09 45. 02 34. 57 36. 53 30. 58 39. 35 38. 59 36. 22 36. 60 2025 22. 98 37. 51 38. 46 39. 33 39. 37 62. 40 51. 43 45. 68 34. 49 35. 21 29. 82 38. 48 37. 60 35. 29 35. 53 2030 21. 38 36. 04 36. 81 38. 10 38. 22 64. 44 51. 72 46. 21 33. 34 33. 17 29. 40 37. 27 36. 32 34. 22 34. 29 2040 18. 18 30. 33 30. 77 31. 75 31. 85 69. 23 54. 67 50. 14 38. 41 37. 94 29. 23 32. 87 31. 88 29. 71 29. 67 2050 16. 13 25. 05 25. 22 25. 69 25. 96 72. 95 57. 65 54. 46 44. 78 43. 68 29. 90 29. 31 28. 42 26. 03 26. 00 2060 15. 42 21. 05 21. 10 21. 26 21. 39 75. 32 60. 87 58. 49 48. 54 46. 69 30. 89 27. 11 26. 40 24. 40 24. 17 2070 15. 22 16. 96 16. 97 17. 00 17. 10 77. 30 66. 89 66. 26 64. 08 63. 30 31. 91 26. 66 26. 39 25. 48 24. 85 :,, 1 (), (2) : (1), 2020 6153, 2020 6. 85, 2020 4. 13 ; (2), 2020 1. 73, 2020 1. 75, 2020 1. 83 ; (3), 2020 2. 00, 2020 2. 09,2020 1. 28, 2020
160 () 37 2 2020 2020 2020 () 144 774. 60 2039 139 625. 10 2025-5 149. 50 139 035. 10 2023-5 739. 50 139 041. 60 2023-5 733. 00 ( %) 77. 72 2085 84. 25 2057 6. 53 84. 57 2057 6. 85 81. 85 2058 4. 13 ( %) 28. 63 2056 30. 36 2056 1. 73 30. 38 2056 1. 75 30. 46 2056 1. 83 () 39 172. 33 2055 39 172. 33 2055 0 39 172. 33 2055 0 39 172. 33 2055 0 ( %) 56. 27 2085 54. 27 2057-2. 00 54. 18 2057-2. 09 54. 99 2058-1. 28 (),,,, 2031 2083 2006 2100 95, 2020 2020, 47, 48, 2 1 ; 2020 51,44, 7 (2),, 3,,2069,, 2020 2079 2020 2080 2020 2082,2020 2020 3 21, 2020 2093,,,
6,,: 161,21 30 80 50,,;,,,,, (,, ),,,,,, ;, ( ),,,,, 3 : (1), 1 (2), ;,,, 2,2020 ;2, 2020 1, ;,(3) 2006-2100 95,1,2020, 3 2020 2020 2020 () 33. 00 34. 00 1. 00 32. 00-1. 00 32. 00-1. 00 32. 00-1. 00 () 62. 00 61. 00-1. 00 63. 00 1. 00 63. 00 1. 00 63. 00 1. 00 ( %) ( %) 17. 03 19. 25 2. 22 19. 09 2. 06 19. 35 2. 32 19. 17 2. 14-12. 17-16. 57-4. 40-13. 96-1. 79-14. 12-1. 95-13. 14-0. 97 ( %) - 2. 03-3. 75-1. 72-2. 83-0. 8-2. 84-0. 81-2. 26-0. 23 ( %) 561. 89 654. 45 92. 56 610. 72 48. 83 619. 33 57. 44 613. 37 51. 48 ( %) - 754. 80-1 010. 93-256. 13-879. 48-124. 68-889. 49-134. 69-827. 64-72. 84 ( %) - 192. 91-356. 48-163. 57-268. 76-75. 85-270. 16-77. 25-214. 27-21. 36 (4) : (1),63. 33 %, 2020,73. 33 % ; (2) 80 %,, 2006 2,20-35,
162 () 37 2020 96. 67 % ; (3) 80 %,2020 100 % 4 2020 2020 2020 1 2 3 % % % % % % % 30 26 86. 67 21 70. 00 19 63. 33 22 73. 33 20 66. 67 22 73. 33 22 73. 33 30 30 100. 00 24 80. 00 26 86. 67 29 96. 67 29 96. 67 28 93. 33 29 96. 67 30 29 96. 67 24 80. 00 24 80. 00 30 100. 00 30 100. 00 30 100. 00 30 100. 00 30 4 13. 33 9 30. 00 11 36. 67 8 26. 67 10 33. 33 8 26. 67 8 26. 67 30 27 90. 00 30 100. 00 29 96. 67 25 83. 33 27 90. 00 25 83. 33 25 83. 33 30 27 90. 00 30 100. 00 30 100. 00 26 86. 67 27 90. 00 26 86. 67 26 86. 67 30 16 53. 33 2 6. 67 3 10. 00 18 60. 00 17 56. 67 18 60. 00 18 60. 00 30 11 36. 67 2 6. 67 2 6. 67 12 40. 00 10 33. 33 14 46. 67 12 40. 00 30 16 53. 33 2 6. 67 3 10. 00 18 60. 00 17 56. 67 19 63. 33 18 60. 00 30 24 80. 00 27 90. 00 28 93. 33 26 86. 67 25 83. 33 27 90. 00 26 86. 67 :,,,1,,, 2006-2100 95,,, 100 %,, (), :,, 86 %,2020 2020 90 %,83 %, 90 %(4) (,2), (,2),,,
6,,: 163,,,2023-2025,2020 139 625. 10 (2025 ), 2020 139 035. 10 (2023 ),2020 139 041. 60 (2023 ),144 774. 60 ( 2039 ) 5 149. 50 5 739. 50 5 733. 00(2) 2050,7500 7800 21, 12. 4,, 1. 1 1. 6 (4) 4,2006-2100 95, 1, 2,1 ;,,, 2006-2100 (3 ),,,: (1) 2020 75. 85,72. 49 ; (2) 2020 77. 25,71. 54 ; (3)2020 21. 36,82. 75,,, 2006-2100,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
164 () 37,,,,, 2020, 2020,,1. 0982 1. 0973 1. 0765,,,,2020,, ( ) 2020,,,,2020,,, [2 ]106,,,,,,,;,, ;,,,,,,( ) ( ) (),,, ;,, [3 ]62-66, 20,60, 20, 21,60, 18,, 24, 4 (28, ), 18, 60, 12, 8,4,2, 18, 6 65, 1 21,60,9 ;65,4,2012 2030 18, 0. 9 1. 8,, [2 ],, () 2020,:
6,,: 165 1.,,,,,,, 35 2.,,,, 3.,, () (),,,,,, 4.,,,,,, 5., 6.,,,, 7.,,,, 8. [4 ]23-24 1980, [ 5 ]27,,,,,, 9.,,,,,,,,,
166 () 37,,,,, 2020,2020,: 4. 13 ;1. 28 ;1 ; 72. 84 ;1, 0. 97 ;21. 36 ; 0. 23 : 73. 33 % ;96. 67 % ; 100 %5 733 2050 7 713,2100 15 854, 108 135. 85,, ;, ( ) ( ;,),,, ( ),,,,, ;, ;,,, :, ;,,,,,,,,,,,20 70,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,
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