2013 5 World Economic Papers October, 2013 * GDP 1 2 1 1998 2009 GDP GDP * E-mail 563545762@ qq. com 22 622 210093 1 1990 2008 2
2013 5 19 2 1998 2009 GDP GDP 1 2 1 1 GDP 2 GDP 3 1955 1991 GDP 1991 GDP 1955 2004 4 1955 2004 GDP 3 4 2 5 GDP 1 2 1998 2009 GDP GDP GDP 1998 = 100 GDP 2000 GDP 1955 2004 GDP GDP GDP 1955 = 100 GDP 2005 GDP
20 2013 5 3 GDP 4 GDP 1975 2006 GDP 2006 2007 GDP 1975 2011 6 1975 2011 GDP GDP 5 6 1 GDP 1 2000 2011 5 6 1975 2011 GDP GDP FHFA GDP FHFA 1975 1 = 100 GDP 2000 FHFA FHFA
2013 5 21 5 GDP FHFA 6 GDP GDP
22 2013 5 Meadows et al. 1972 Drazen and Eckstein 1988 Rhee 1991 Nordhaus 1992 Deaton and Laroque 2001 2003 Guilló and Perez-Sebastian 2008 growth drag Meadows et al. 1972 Nordhaus 1992 2003 Nichols 1970 Nichols Solow Nichols Solow
2013 5 23 Nichols Rhee 1991 Rhee Leung and Chen 2006 Stone and Ziemba 1993 90 2008 Capozza and Helsley 1989 Brueckner 1990 Tobin 1965 Homburg 1991 OLG Tiróle 1985 OLG Diamond 1965 McCallum 1987 OLG
24 2013 5 1 x x * γ X X γ * X X X X t η X X X 1. n 1 t N t = e nt W Z Q W = Z + Q 1 P s L 0 Z = P s L 0 γ P s = P s /P s z = Z /N 2 z = γ P s - n z 2 1 2 Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans RCK
2013 5 25 t r Q Q r Z Z wn r Q r Z w N Z C t t W = r Q Q + wn + r Z Z + Z - C W 1 3 a = r Q a + w + r z + γ P s - r Q z - c - na 4 a = W /N c = C /N U = 0 u c t e nt e -ρt dt ρ > 0 ρ > n 2 4 5 H = u c e - ρ - n t + λ 1 r Q a + w + r Z + γ P s - r Q z - c - na + λ 2 γ P s - n z 6 λ 1 λ 2 Hamilton H / c = 0 H / a = - λ 1 r Q = ρ - cu c /u' c c /c H / z = - λ 2 TVC lim t a t λ 1 t = 0 lim z t λ 2 t = 0 u c = c 1 - θ / 1 - θ t θ > 0 ρ - n - 1 - θ g > 0 7 c /c = 1 /θ r Q - ρ 10 3 5 7 8 t λ 2 t = λ 2 0 exp - γ P s v - n + λ 1 v /λ 2 v r z v + γ P s v r Q 0 v dv λ 1 λ 2 lim a t λ 1 t = 0 lim z t λ 2 t = 0 t t λ 1 t lim t t t a t exp - r Q ν - n dυ = 0 lim z t exp - γ P s ν - n dv = 0 0 t 0 9 11 2. Y K A H
26 2013 5 H t = P d t L 0 12 P d t g 0 A 0 1 A t = e gt Y K H N F K > 0 F H > 0 F N > 0 F KK < 0 F HH < 0 F NN < 0 Y = F K H AN 13 y = Y / AN k = K / AN h = H y = f k h 14 14 1 F K = Y K = h / K /AN = f k f k k h F H = Y H = h / H = f k ANf k h h F N = Y N = ANf k h / N = h - kf k f k k h - hf k h h e gt 15 16 17 F K F H F N Y = K α H β AN 1 - α - β 18 α > 0 β > 0α + β < 1 f k = h α k β h 19 3. 1 Q K r Q F K r = r Q = F K w F N 1 2 Z H 2 r z F H H = P d L 0 = P s L 0 = Z P = P d = P s 3 2 Z = H P = P s 1 2
2013 5 27 h = γ P - n - g h 20 γ P 1 W = K + H a = k + h e gt c = c /e gt 15 17 19 20 4 k = f k h - c - n + g k 21 k 0 h 0 20 21 10 r = r Q c / c = r - ρ - θg /θ 22 11 lim t lim t t k + h exp - r υ - n - g dυ = 0 0 t h exp - γ P ν - n - g dv = 0 0 23 20 23 P 1. Ely Malthus Say Marshall Samuelson 1998 2. fundamental price bubble price Rhee 1991 Tiróle 1985 20 P P P
28 2013 5 3. Nichols 1970 v P t = F L v exp - F K u du dv t t 24 F L 1 F K r 24 F L 16 F H F L F H 16 F L = H Y H = PF L H = Pf k h h 25 0 24 t 15 16 25 P /P = - f k h h + f k k h 26 K A N P F K = P L 0 + HF H / PL 0 26 26 20 23 26 4 4 1. 2 h = 0 h * 21 26 k = f k - c - n + g k 27 1 2 F L 0
2013 5 29 22 27 2010 k = 0 c = 0 γ * k 21 t c = k f k - n + g + γ * k + f h h 28 k = 0 c = 0 28 h = 0 k = 0 c = 0 h = 0 1 2. 19 22 26-1 / αθ ζ ζ - α 1 - α - β ζ - 29 ζ = ρ + θg = n + g ζ > α + β < 1 2 26 20 22 26 20 21 20 21 1 2 20 22 26 23 2010
30 2013 5 26 26 20 21 22 026 n + g 14 γ Y = 1 - η n h + g + γ k η k + γ P η h 30 20 30 γ * P = γ * Y = n + g 31 31 31
2013 5 31 Nichols 1970 20 c = 0 F * K 26 31 F * H ρ + θg - n - g 25 P * = F * L / ρ + θg - n - g 32 F * L P * t F * L t t 32 t n + g > 0 n + g n + g > 0 0 P * t = P 0 exp n + g t 33 n + g > 0 1998
32 2013 5 n + g > 0 n + g 0 n + g > 0 1. 1998 2009 GDP GDP GDP 2012 GDP GDP GDP 2. 1955 2004 GDP GDP 1991 1956 1991 1991 1955 GDP
2013 5 33 GDP GDP 3. 1975 2011 GDP GDP GDP 2007 1975 2007 2007 2008 1999 GDP GDP 1 26 GK GN 1. 2 2 4 1 2
34 2013 5 OECD Analytical Database 1961 2002 1955 1960 2003 2004 1932 2000 1932 1960 Christensen and Jorgenson 1969 1961 2000 OECD Analytical Database U. S. Census Bureau 1998 2009 1955 2004 1961 2002 1932 2000 1 % 1 GP 6. 836969 10. 74094-39. 94246 42. 57749 132 GY 4. 765382 4. 834897-13. 00252 18. 52153 132 GK 5. 082503 4. 457933-6. 682298 17. 59817 124 GN 0. 946359 0. 435301 0. 100000 2. 066711 132 2. Pool- OLS Fixed Effects Random Effects 1 3 F LM 1 3 HAC residual 2 2 1 4 1 HAC 4 2 3 5 6 GY 2 GK 21 GK 3 2 3 HAC 5 6 5 GK 5 6 5 GK 6 GY 5%
2013 5 35 6 Fisher-type tests 6 P 0 1 6 GY 2 2 GP 1 PO 2 PO 3 PO 4 HAC 5 HAC 6 HAC GY 0. 586 *** 0. 188 0. 489 ** 0. 240 0. 575 *** 0. 188 0. 586 ** 0. 271 0. 489 * 0. 295 0. 575 ** 0. 277 GK - 0. 073 0. 262-0. 073 0. 343 GN 1. 957 2. 134 2. 319 2. 089 1. 957 3. 201 2. 319 3. 080 Cons 4. 043 ** 1. 273 2. 581 2. 485 1. 901 2. 311 4. 043 ** 1. 891 2. 581 3. 213 1. 901 2. 701 F 0. 274 0. 572 0. 215 LM 0. 554 0. 462 0. 871 AR 1 0. 009 0. 006 0. 004 0. 065 0. 536 0. 753 R-squared 0. 063 0. 054 0. 079 132 124 132 132 124 132 4 6 HAC * ** *** 10% 5% 1% PO HAC HAC F F LM AR 1 1 P
36 2013 5 Brueckner J. K. 1990 Growth Controls and Land Values in an Open City Land Economics 66 3 237-248. Capozza D. R. and R. W. Helsley 1989 The Fundamentals of Land Prices and Urban Growth Journal of Urban Economics 26 3 295-306. Christensen L. R. and D. W. Jorgenson 1969 The measurement of US real capital input 1929-1967 Review of Income and Wealth 15 4 293-320. Deaton A. and G. Laroque 2001 Housing Land Prices and Growth Journal of Economic Growth 6 2 87-105. Diamond P. A. 1965 National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model American Economic Review 55 5 1126-1150. Drazen A. and Z. Eckstein 1988 On the Organization of Rural Markets and the Process of Economic Development American Economic Review 78 3 431-443. Guilló M. D. and F. Perez-Sebastian 2008 Reexamining the Role of Land in Economic Growth University of Alicante. Homburg S. 1991 Interest and Growth in an Economy with Land The Canadian Journal of Economics 24 2 450-459. Leung C. K. Y. and N. K. Chen 2006 Intrinsic Cycles of Land Price A Simple Model Journal of Real Estate Research 28 3 293-320. McCallum B. T. 1987 The Optimal Inflation Rate in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Land in Barnett W. A. and K. J. Singleton eds. New Approaches in Monetary Economics Cambridge Cambridge University Press. Meadows D. H. D. L. Meadows J. Randers and W. W. Behrens 1972 The Limits to Growth New York Universe Books. Nichols D. A. 1970 Land and Economic Growth American Economic Review 60 3 332-340. Nordhaus W. D. 1992 Lethal Model The Limits to Growth Revisited Bookings Papers on Economic Activity 2
2013 5 37 1-43. Rhee C. 1991 Dynamic Inefficiency in an Economy with Land The Review of Economic Studies 58 4 791-797. Stone D. and W. T. Ziemba 1993 Land and Stock Prices in Japan The Journal of Economic Perspectives 7 3 149-165. Tiróle J. 1985 Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations Econometrica 53 5 1071-1100. Tobin J. 1965 Money and Economic Growth Econometrica 33 4 671-684. 1998 2000 2008 12 135 139 2012 2 92 109 2010