T_ReportAbstract T_FSAndVSAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 1,006.5 1,256.9 1,927.6 2,283.0 3,379.1 Growth(%) 30.5% 24.9% 53.4% 18.4% 48.0% 7.0 5.4 171.8 274.2 422.2 Growth(%) 19.4% -22.1% 3053.7% 59.6% 53.9% (%) 24.6% 25.9% 40.7% 45.2% 44.5% (%) 0.7% 0.4% 8.9% 12.0% 12.5% () 0.02 0.01 0.43 0.69 1.07 () 2.57 2.99 3.43 4.14 5.21 528.0 678.0 21.5 13.5 8.7 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.3 1.8 (%) 2.2% 2.6% 16.8% 20.9% 25.0% ROIC(%) 4.7% 5.2% 14.0% 17.6% 21.2% EV/EBITDA 27.7 30.2 11.8 8.4 6.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.5% 2.3% T_RankInfo -A -B 15.00 12 9.00 9.63 2009-02-10 T_MarketInfo 3,812.54 3,608.19 395.90 374.68 4.02/12.48 % 26.46% 88,812 12 % (3.13) 52.54 48.80 18.16 81.68 (3.93) T_Analyst 021-68765916 shilei@essence.com.cn 021-68765363 wangtr@essence.com.cn T_RelatedReport 1
1-1 1. 1.1. 85.54% 15.34% 4.08% 0.65% 100% 28.71% 50.77% 96.92% 51% 100% 100% 74.2% 100% 100% 100% 100% 62.35% 100% 80% 2
1.2. 1.3. 3
1.4. 1.4.1. 1.4.2. 4
2. 2.1. 100 80 60 40 20 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 5
2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 60% 45% 30% 15% 0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200801-11 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 08-Feb 08-Mar 08-Apr 08-May 08-Jun 08-Jul 08-Aug 08-Sep 08-Oct 08-Nov 6
1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2.2. 7
2.2.1. Km 120000 Km 60000 100000 50000 80000 40000 60000 30000 40000 20000 20000 10000 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 8
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2005 2007 2010E 2020E 2030E 9
66.96 2005-08 91.114 76.8 2007-11 258 25.88 2007-12 70.502 119 2007-07 130.4 46 2007-08 35.74 2.5 2008-07 20.05 22.22 2008-08 36.96 34 2008-12 141 60 2008-10 145.462 2008-01 293.59 2009 2010 447.28 32.75 2009 192 30 2009 77.41 59 2010 158.197 22 2009 154 15 2008-10 42.94 905.7 2001.055 2.2.2. Km 2400 2100 1800 1500 1200 900 600 300 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 10
430 2008-09 435 1200 2010 1892 106 2007 290.69 72.3 2008-11 266 57.1 2009-2010 137 617 2009-2010 91.7 2482.4 3112.39 2.2.3. 11
2.2.4. 2.2.4.1. 12
2.2.4.2. 2.3. 3. 13
2000 1600 1200 800 400 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3.1. 14
3000 93 3000 93 3000 85 4500 150 4000 124 4000 124 2000 62 2500 77.5 2500 77.5 4000 124 3000 93 2500 77.5 4500 139.5 2500 77.5 Total 511.5 15
3.2. 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3.3. 500 / 450 400 350 300 250 200 07-Jan 07-Apr 07-Jul 07-Oct 08-Jan 08-Apr 08-Jul 08-Oct 09-Jan 16
4. & 09-10 4.1. 17
2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 566.49 600 640 940 29.77% 5.92% 6.67% 46.88% 207.58 307 342 348.84 5.00% 47.89% 11.40% 2.00% 151.81 178.01 182.35 190.22 32.03 50.86 53.28 55.94 21.10% 28.57% 29.22% 29.41% 117594.59 184200.00 218880.00 327909.60 27.26% 56.64% 18.83% 49.81% 26.87% 42.02% 46.68% 45.47% 7145.33 7462 8120 8700 11.33% 11.30% 11.30% 11.30% 946.23 1100 1300 1300 125686.15 192762.00 228300.00 337909.60 26.27% 53.37% 18.44% 48.01% 25.92% 40.67% 45.24% 44.47% 4.2. 18
PE 2008 2009 2010 CAGR 09-10 ( 2009E) 600585 21.64 19.17 15.10 19.66% 528.35 000401 35.65 23.38 16.20 48.11% 494.12 600801 21.75 18.67 13.95 24.90% 289.98 000877 20.97 15.67 12.51 29.42% 371.69 600449 24.67 20.07 15.02 28.54% 1049.41 600720 26.16 16.30 10.51 56.84% 695.92 19
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T_FSAndVS 2009-2-2 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 1,006.5 1,256.9 1,927.6 2,283.0 3,379.1 759.2 931.0 1,143.6 1,250.1 1,876.3 30.5% 24.9% 53.4% 18.4% 48.0% 8.5 9.2 16.4 19.4 28.7-83.1% 2528.8% -3044.6% 58.9% 52.0% 90.1 102.3 154.2 178.1 256.8 19.4% -22.1% 3053.7% 59.6% 53.9% 83.8 131.8 269.9 319.6 473.1 EBITDA 30.0% -2.1% 167.2% 47.9% 38.0% 61.2 65.3 92.4 124.2 147.6 EBIT 71.4% -6.2% 484.7% 52.1% 43.9% 3.4 25.4 26.6 8.1 13.7 NOPLAT 69.9% 14.7% 216.5% 45.9% 43.8% - - - - - 4.0% 18.5% 15.6% 19.7% 17.3% -0.6-16.7 - - 3.7% 16.6% 14.7% 20.7% 25.7% -0.3-8.2 241.4 383.5 582.9 33.3 45.8 45.0 45.0 45.0 24.6% 25.9% 40.7% 45.2% 44.5% 32.9 37.6 286.4 428.5 627.9 0.0% -0.7% 12.5% 16.8% 17.2% 10.6 7.2 57.3 85.7 113.0 0.7% 0.4% 8.9% 12.0% 12.5% 7.0 5.4 171.8 274.2 422.2 EBITDA/ 16.6% 13.0% 22.7% 28.3% 26.4% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E EBIT/ 6.0% 4.5% 17.3% 22.2% 21.6% 161.8 261.5 632.3 1,134.2 1,169.2 - - - - - 450 408 306 300 238 209.7 217.0 371.3 439.7 650.8 74 48 42 54 56 55.6 18.9 15.8 18.8 27.8 246 229 208 265 241 122.0 91.3 34.1 46.6 65.4 71 57 49 55 50 193.3 260.6 312.8 342.0 615.9 66 65 54 52 51 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 833 772 607 648 535 5.4 14.3 - - - 642 572 436 434 347 72.6 - - - - 5.0 9.5 25.0 25.0 25.0 ROE 2.2% 2.6% 16.8% 20.9% 25.0% - 6.0 - - - ROA 0.9% 1.0% 6.4% 7.4% 9.5% 1,251.6 1,594.7 1,679.1 2,123.5 2,342.4 ROIC 4.7% 5.2% 14.0% 17.6% 21.2% 189.9 161.4 196.0 207.0 192.8 134.8 225.2 228.9 223.0 217.4 9.0% 8.1% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 54.5 63.0 76.9 82.4 83.5 8.3% 10.5% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 2,460.3 2,927.8 3,576.8 4,646.7 5,394.8 6.1% 5.2% 4.8% 5.4% 4.4% 729.3 1,016.9 1,500.0 2,000.0 2,000.0 / 23.4% 23.8% 26.8% 27.2% 26.0% 220.6 216.4 219.3 222.6 282.7 61.1 77.5 109.7 119.9 179.9 58.7% 59.5% 62.0% 64.7% 61.8% 93.8 166.9 232.9 310.4 414.8 142.1% 147.1% 163.0% 183.2% 161.6% 321.6 245.4 215.4 415.4 515.4 0.67 0.57 0.69 0.77 0.91 5.3 8.4 11.5 13.3 18.8 0.49 0.40 0.53 0.64 0.68 1,444.2 1,742.7 2,217.0 3,005.8 3,332.8 0.99 0.87 3.61 4.09 4.95 118.9 273.1 324.6 386.3 469.7 395.9 395.9 395.9 395.9 395.9 DPS() - - 0.09 0.14 0.21 501.3 516.1 639.3 858.7 1,196.4 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 1,016.1 1,185.1 1,359.8 1,640.9 2,062.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.5% 2.3% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 22.3 30.5 171.8 274.2 422.2 EPS() 0.02 0.01 0.43 0.69 1.07 108.8 110.9 103.7 139.6 162.5 BVPS() 2.57 2.99 3.43 4.14 5.21 3.4 25.4 26.6 8.1 13.7 PE(X) 528.0 678.0 21.5 13.5 8.7 - - - - - PB(X) 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.3 1.8 41.5 60.1 67.8 92.4 124.2 P/FCF 25.7-30.1 12.7 7.6 1,176.1 0.6 - -16.7 - - P/S 3.7 2.9 1.9 1.6 1.1 15.3 25.0 57.3 68.6 92.7 EV/EBITDA 27.7 30.2 11.8 8.4 6.3-20.3 68.5-68.3-25.9-294.4 CAGR(%) 148.7% 156.7% 38.2% -100.0% -100.0% 174.8 243.0 366.7 588.8 544.3 PEG 3.6 4.3 0.6-0.1-0.1-225.9-172.0-224.3-597.0-365.0 ROIC/WACC 0.5 0.6 1.6 2.0 2.4 144.4-40.2 317.1 526.0-132.1 REP 4.7 3.8 1.3 0.9 0.7 Wind.NET 21
T_AuthorInfo 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-68763879 zhangqin@essence.com.cn 021-68765206 nanfang@essence.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essence.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essence.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essence.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essence.com.cn 0755-82558087 wangyy3@essence.com.cn : 518026 : 200122 : 100034 22