1946 2006 ICB3. 0 1946 2006 2009 12 1 30000 2010 /2 22 63 89 Quarterly Journal of Intenational Politics 63
1 2 1 The New York Times 2009 12 2 2 James Meernik Presidential Decision Making and The Political Use of Military Force International Studies Quarterly Vol. 38 No. 1 1994 pp. 121-138 64
1946 2006 1 2 1 James Meernik Domestic Politics and the Political Use of Military Force by the United States Political Research Quarterly Vol. 54 No. 4 2001 pp. 889-904 Benjamin O. Fordham A Very Sharp Sword The Influence of Military Capabilities on American Decisions to Use Force Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 48 No. 5 2004 pp. 632-656 Atsushi Tago Determinants of Multilateralism in US Use of Force State of Economy Election Cycle and Divided Government Journal of Peace Research Vol. 42 No. 5 2005 pp. 585-604 Alex Mintz The Decision to Attack Iraq A Non-compensatory Theory of Decision Making Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 37 No. 4 1993 pp. 595-618 David Brulé Explaining and Forecasting Leaders'Decisions A Poliheuristic Analysis of The Iran Hostage Rescue Decision International Studies Perspectives Vol. 6 No. 1 2005 pp. 99-113 Alex Mintz Nehemia Geva Steven B. Redd and Amy Carnes The Effect of Dynamic and Static Choice Sets on Political Decision Making An Analysis Using the Decision Board Platform American Political Science Review Vol. 91 No. 3 1997 pp. 553-566 Eben J. Christensen and Steven B. Redd Bureaucrats versus The Ballot Box in Foreign Policy Decision Making An Experimental Analysis of The Bureaucratic Politics Model and The Poliheuristic Theory Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 48 No. 1 2004 pp. 69-90 Brad Podliska Taxonomy of Triggers for Unilateral or Multilateral U. S. Uses of Force A Poliheuristic Interpretation Prepared for Presentation at The 2006 International Studies Association Annual Convention San Diego California March 22-25 2006 Ahmer Tarar Diversionary Incentives and the Bargaining Approach to War International Studies Quarterly Vol. 50 No. 1 2006 pp. 169-188 R. Harrison Wagner War and the State The Theory of International Politics Ann Arbor University of Michigan Press 2007 2 James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy London Ashgate 2004 p. 1. 65
1 2 3 4 5 6 Benjamin O. Fordham 7 1 Kenneth A. Schultz Looking for Audience Costs Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 45 No. 1 2001 pp. 32-60 Joe Clare Domestic Audiences and Strategic Interests Journal of Politics Vol. 69 No. 3 2007 pp. 732-745 2 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Alastair Smith Randolph M. Siverson and James D. Morrow The Logic of Political Survival Cambridge MIT Press 2003 3 David Brulé and Alex Mintz Blank Check or Marching Orders Public Opinion and The Presidential Use of Force Presented at the Annual Meeting of The International Studies Association Honolulu Hawaii March 1-5 2005 4 1945 1988 2008 James Meernik James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy London Ashgate 2004 5 6 2003 122 123 40 7 Benjamin O. Fordham A Very Sharp Sword The Influence of Military Capabilities on American Decisions to Use Force Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 48 No. 5 2004 pp. 632-656 66
1946 2006 1 2 James Meernik 1983 10 3 4 5 Harry Magdoff 1 David Brulé Explaining and Forecasting Leaders' Decisions A Poliheuristic Analysis of The Iran Hostage Rescue Decision International Studies Perspectives Vol. 6 No. 1 2005 pp. 99-113 2 Walter Lafeber The American Age United States Foreign Policy at Home and Abroad 2nd edition New York W. W. Norton & Co. 1994 p. 751. 3 James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p. 75. 4 26 5 James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p. 76. 67
1 Robert Keohane Joseph Nye Stephen Krasner Robert Gilpin 2 3 4 5 1 Harry Magdoff The American Empire and the U. S. Hegemony in Imperialism and Underdevelopment edited by Robert I. Rhodes New York Monthly Review Press 1970 p. 29. 34 2 3 4 James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p. 77. Ibid. pp. 76-77. Atsushi Tago Determinants of Multilateralism in US Use of Force State of Economy Election Cycle and Divided Government Journal of Peace Research Vol. 42 No. 5 2005 pp. 585-604 James Meernik and Chelsea Brown The Short Path and the Long Road Explaining The Duration of US Military Operations Journal of Peace Research Vol. 44 No. 1 2007 pp. 65-80 Edward D. Mansfield and Brian M. Pollins ed. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict New Perspectives on An Enduring Debate Ann Arbor University of Michigan Press 2003 5 2002 2 68
1946 2006 Suzanne Werner 1 50 60 2 Ole R. Holsti 3 4 1 Suzanne Werner The Effects of Political Similarity on The Onset of Militarized Disputes 1816-1985 Political Research Quarterly Vol. 53 No. 2 2000 pp. 343-374 2 23 3 Ole R. Holsti Making American Foreign Policy New York Routledge 2006 p. 204. 4 James Meernik U. S. Military Intervention and the Promotion of Democracy Journal of Peace Research Vol. 33 No. 4 1996 pp. 391-402. 69
1 Joanne Gowa 2 3 1 Benjamin Fordham The Politics of Threat Perception and The Use of Force A Political Economy Model of U. S. Uses of Force 1949-1994 International Studies Quarterly Vol. 42 No. 3 1998 pp. 567-590 Karl DeRouen Jr. Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force A Research Note International Studies Quarterly Vol. 44 No. 2 2000 pp. 317-328 James Meernik Domestic Politics and the Political Use of Military Force by the United States Political Research Quarterly Vol. 54 No 4 2001 pp. 889-904 David Sobek Rallying Around the Podesta Testing Diversionary Theory Across Time Journal of Peace Research Vol. 44 No. 1 2007 pp. 29-45 Dennis M. Foster And Glenn Palmer Presidents Public Opinion and Diversionary Behavior The Role of Partisan Support Reconsidered Foreign Policy Analysis Vol. 2 No. 3 2006 pp. 269-287 2 Joanne Gowa Politics at the Water's Edge Parties Voters and the Use of Force Abroad International Organization Vol. 52 No. 2 1998 p. 307. 3 James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p. 203. 70
1946 2006 11 1 2 1 1 2 3 4 2 Karen Rasler William R. Thompson 1 Karl DeRouen Jr. and Christopher Sprecher Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 48 No. 1 2004 p. 63. 2 Karl DeRouen Jr. and Christopher Sprecher Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory p. 62. 71
1 3 4 2 5 6 3 5 6 4 1 Karen Rasler and William R. Thompson Explaining Rivalry Escalation to War Space Position and Contiguity in the Major Power Subsystem International Studies Quarterly Vol. 44 No. 3 2000 pp. 503-530 34 James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p. 114. 2 3 4 Practicalities London Ashgate 2006 John Janzekovic The Use of Force in Humanitarian Intervention Morality and 72
1946 2006 7 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 1 9 10 11 1946 2006 International Crisis Behavior Project 1 Karl DeRouen Jr. Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force A Research Note International Studies Quarterly Vol. 44 No. 2 2000 pp. 317-328 James Meernik Domestic Politics and the Political Use of Military Force by the United States Political Research Quarterly Vol. 54 No 4 2001 pp. 889-904 73
ICB3. 0 1 ICB ICB1 ICB2 1 2 2 ICB2 1958 3 241 ICB2 4 1 ICB 3. 0 1918 2006 ICB3. 0 2009 1 Militarized Interstate Disputes MID ICB ICB MID ICB http / /www. cidcm. umd. edu /icb /data /icb2v9. zip 2 Patrick James and Enyu Zhang Chinese Choices A Poliheuristic Analysis of Foreign Policy Crises 1950-1996 Foreign Policy Analysis Vol. 1 No. 1 2005 p. 39. 3 ICB 8 1 2 8 9 4 ICB2 74
75 8 9 1 8 1 0 ICB2 1 ICB2 GNP 2 ICB2 8 ICB 1 0 1 1946 2006 1 ICB2 8
3 ICB2 1 0 1 4 ICB2 4 1 0 2 5 ICB2 ICB 20 3 6 4 1 ICB2 2 4 1934 1936 1963 1964 1938 3 ICB2 20 4 James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p. 114. 76
1946 2006 5 1 7 OPEC 1991 2003 OPEC 2 OPEC 1 0 8 3 7ICB2 5 1 0 4 9 ICB2 8 1 0 5 1 http / /gbk. eads. usaidallnet. gov / 2 OPEC 1960 1946 2006 1960 1973 OPEC http / / www. opec. org /home / 3 Suzanne Werner The Effects of Political Similarity on The Onset of Militarized Disputes 1816-1985 pp. 343-374 4 5 5 ICB2 4 77
10 1 1937 2 11 GDP CIP 3 12 1 Philip Everts and Pierangelo Isernia ed. Public Opinion and the International Use of Force New York Routledge 2001 David Brulé and Alex Mintz Blank Check or Marching Orders Public Opinion and the Presidential Use of Force Presented at The Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association Honolulu Hawaii March 1-5 2005 2 Roper Center http / /roperweb. ropercenter. uconn. edu / 3 http / /www. bls. gov / http / /www. bea. gov / 78
1946 2006 1 7 8 9 10 1 0 4 2 I = B 0 + B 1 + B 2 + B 3 + B 4 + B 5 II = B 0 + B 1 + B 2 OPEC + B 3 GDP + B 4 + B 5 III = B 0 + B 1 + B 2 + B 3 IV = B 0 + B 1 + B 2 + B 3 GDP + B 4 + B 5 + B 6 + B 7 V = B 0 + B 1 + B 2 + B 3 + B 4 + B 5 + B 6 + B 7 OPEC + B 8 + B 9 + B 10 + B 11 + B 12 GDP + B 13 + B 14 + B 15 1 7 8 9 10 James Meernik Modeling International Crises and the Political Use of Military Force by the USA Journal of Peace Research Vol. 37 No. 5 2000 p. 554 2 Karl DeRouen Jr. Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force A Research Note pp. 322-323 Karl DeRouen Jr. and Christopher Sprecher Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory pp. 63-64 79
ICB2-1 1946 2006 11 241 61 25. 3% 29 12% -1 1946 2006-1 241 153 63. 5% 29 100 80
1946 2006 OPEC -1 29 212 12% 88% 153 88 63. 5% 36. 5% 100 141 41. 5% 58. 5% 87 154 36. 1% 63. 9% 13 228 5. 4% 94. 6% 121 120 50. 2% 49. 8% 72 169 29. 9% 70. 1% 1 32 0 33 117 58 0. 4% 13. 3% 0% 13. 7% 48. 5% 24. 1% OPEC 1960 241-2 1946 2006 1946 1948 1949 1952 1953 1961 Mutual Security Act 1962 81
-2 Pearson 0. 1203 0. 32603 6. 14 16. 614 0. 4149 0. 49374 0. 6390 0. 48129 0. 6349 0. 48247 4. 6888 1. 24442 1. 2767E2 242. 04188 OPEC 0. 0539 0. 22637 0. 5021 0. 50104 0. 2988 0. 45866 54. 97 13. 143 0. 20 4. 688 GDP 3. 8220 4. 08025 77. 5324 53. 90458 5. 7189 1. 58042 0. 1452 0. 35306 SPSS16. 0-3 1-3 1 ICB2 0. 615 0. 8 82
1946 2006 83
0-1 Logistic -4 I IV -4 1946 2006 I II III IV V 0. 056 *** 0. 017 0. 051 ** 0. 019-0. 987 ** 0. 599-0. 373 0. 660-0. 066 0. 591-0. 685 0. 454-0. 465 0. 354-0. 868 * 0. 401-0. 250 0. 472 0. 049 0. 186-0. 109 0. 173-0. 004 * 0. 002-0. 002 0. 001 OPEC 0. 058 0. 824 0. 764 0. 867 1. 702 ** 0. 587 1. 360 ** 0. 605 1. 222 * 0. 644 1. 313 ** 0. 638 1. 359 ** 0. 667 0. 015 0. 017-0. 009 0. 062 0. 034 0. 042 0. 286 * 0. 170 GDP 0. 079 0. 055 0. 082 0. 058 0. 304 0. 211 0. 007 0. 004 0. 006 0. 004 0. 020 0. 020 0. 008 0. 140 0. 046 0. 142 0. 681 * 0. 388 0. 398 0. 559 0. 404 2. 338-2. 381 ** 1. 016-2. 683 ** 0. 936-2. 562 *** 0. 604-3. 756 ** 1. 512-2. 992 ** 1. 806-2Log likelihood 151. 245 161. 685 150. 315 153. 233 137. 092 N = 241 *** p < 0. 001 ** p < 0. 05 * p < 0. 1 I 99% 1 95% - 0. 987 2 241 84
1946 2006 153 29 1 II 90% - 2 Log likelihood 161. 685 5. 4% II 1949 1952 1949 1952 2 III 95% 1. 702 7 3 90% III 1 Graham T. Allison and Philip Zelikow Essence of Decision Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis 2nd edition Beijing Peking University Press 2007 2 James D. Meernik The Political Use of Military Force in US Foreign Policy p. 115 3 0. 266 95% 85
-3 0. 093 241 ICB 1 IV 2 3 Jonathan W. Keller Yi Edward Yang 4 11 14. 5% 1 185 2 Ole R. Holsti Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Challenges to the Almond-Lippmann Consensus Mershon Series Research Programs and Debates International Studies Quarterly Vol. 36 No. 4 1992 pp. 439-466 3 Eugene R. Wittkopf Charles W. Kegley and James M. Scott American Foreign Policy Pattern And Process 6th edition Beijing Peking University Press 2004 p. 272. 4 Jonathan W. Keller and Yi Edward Yang Leadership Style Decision Context and The Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making An Experimental Analysis Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 52 No. 5 2008 p. 688. 86
1946 2006 II 1 V 2 11 1 2 3 7 8 5 10-5 -5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 Benjamin Fordham The Politics of Threat Perception and the Use of Force A Political Economy Model of U. S. Uses of Force 1949-1994 International Studies Quarterly p. 584. 2 IV V 87
88 ICB -5
1946 2006 Richard K. Herrmann 1 2 1 Richard K. Herrmann and Jonathan W. Keller Beliefs Values and Strategic Choice U. S. Leaders' Decisions to Engage Contain and Use Force in an Era of Globalization Journal of Politics Vol. 66 No. 2 2004 pp. 557-580 2 David Brulé The Poliheuristic Research Program An Assessment and Suggestions For Further Progress International Studies Review Vol. 10 No. 2 2008 pp. 266-293 89
b. gbuzan@ lse. ac. uk 2004 2009 fengzhangmc@ gmail. com 2006 nkchenchong@ hotmail. com 2004 2006 2009 2009 liufeng00@ gmail. com 1999 2002 2002 2007 wangshuchunf209@ 163. com 492765184@ qq. com 1999 2007 wuwb07@ mails. tsinghua. edu. cn 2009 2009 liuruonan. crystal@ gmail. com Ⅱ