No. C2006018 2006-10 ** No. C2006018 2006 10 10 * ** 100871E-mailxqping@ccer.pku.edu.cn 62754798 1
** No. C2006018 2006 10 10 * ** 100871E-mailxqping@ccer.pku.edu.cn 62754798 2
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1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 4
1994 1996 13 2000 2002 2006 1 8 8 3 23 1994 12 GDP 1 5
GDP 1.1 1994 2003 GDP GDP /GDP GDO 1. GDP 19942003 10 15.6% 21.0% 5.4 2000 2122% 2., GDP (1994 67.6%)2001 76% 85% GDP 10 7.8% 10% 11.% /GDP 2000 3./GDP 10 5.4 1994 GDP GDP GDP 1994 2003 6 /GDP 1994 15% 2003 24.5% 9.5 GDP 1994 11.81% 2003 17.93 6.1 /GDP 6
19942003 10 /GDP 1.2 1.2 19942003 1994 589 2003 2120 10 3.6 10 1.1 GDP 1994 2000 2003 2003 0.129157 0.229549 0.227219 0.571651 0.128841 0.163928 0.19376 0.707866 0.093737 0.137877 0.150557 0.093303 0.100589 0.11788 0.12522 0.091303 0.116824 0.221169 0.238134 0.109834 0.175879 0.233601 0.278801 0.097696 0.675606 0.522385 0.798132 0.54539 0.14741 0.166611 0.194683 0.109632 1.1 7078 2003 7
913 7.75 19942003 1993 1873.63 234.3 8 19942004 2001 1994 1995-2000 2001-2003 1.1 2003 1000 GDP 2003 /GDP 23.8% 27.8% 1994 12 10 1000 2003 2510.20 2510.2 1000 2.5:1 1.3 1994 2003 45.4%2005 47.7% 1994 70%2003 69.9%2004 72.3%2005 74.1% 2005 2005 26 54.5% 1/3 1.2 1990 1997 46.3 43.9 50.9 47.9 67.4 72.6 40.2 37.8 51.1 53.3 13.1 14.8 17.8 26.1 37.6 20.7 49.8 42.0 46.4 World Bank(2000 )Managing public Expenditures for Better Results,Washington.D.C;2006 1.2 8
1994 1997 90% GDP GDP 21-22% 10 3.7 1994 10 1.4 1. 1997 13, 1978 1978 1993 1994 13 1994 1994 9
1.3: : 2004 1997 13 1997 1997 1994 1994 1994 1997 2004 4699.18 3208.42 2/3 3133.8 10
2005 351.29 7.48% 2. 100%, 25% 10% 15% 25% 91%2005 4000 1991993 3. 2004 2417 1995.21 3133.8 2851 56% 58.9% 1.5 3 8 8 3 11
2006 9 4 21 2001-2003 9100 35%2004 8.31 5894 47%2005 5505 2006 3000 50% 8 2 2004 90% 30% 6070% 80% 80% 8 12
1/3 6:4 40% =0.8 1 [0.6+0. 3 1.3 2004 1.3 1. 2004 1612.6 200 2. 2004 1823.12 / 1274.84 /1217.63 /1140.21 / 2004 1823.12 / 121.5 / S Y 2004 990 /926.66 / 2004 202.5 3. 2004 1176.87 1053.629 1028.437 3258.9 4. S Y 3% 5% 2% 90% 2004 6150.55 2004 4699.18 1.3 21 13
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5. 2004 4323.25 92.5% 6150.55 10473.80 2004 11893.37 88% 6150.55 GDP 1.42004 1 11893.37 2 8000 3 4323.25 4 6150.55 30367.17 1 2005 2005 2 2004 30367.17 7894.08 3.85 2004 GDP 136875.9 22.19% 2004 GDP 2004 GDP 159878.3 GDP 19% 34.5% 15
2.1 S Y Y 2002 2006 6 30%2002 127.91 / 31 /2003 150 / 34-38 /2004 104.3 / 22.34 2004 51.39 / 17 / 468.1 Y 56.3%2005 222./ 53-57 / 2000 162.64 / 2003 150.82 668.26 /2006 16
222.2 /2003 2/32004 45% 300~500 36.3%2004 1.4 40% 2.1 2.1 2005 GDP 10,000 10,766 8000 10,000 5000 7000 15,544 X 17
30%70% GDP 2004 1 2.2 2003 2.3 2.3 5 2005 2.3 18
2.2 1 4.48% 53.39% 2 5.95% 67.65% 3 3.06% 23.44% 4-43.44% -57.15% 5-1.70% -45.38% 6 5.58% 74.36% 7 170.13% 1703.50% 8 6.08% 91.72% 9 0.77% 14.98% 10 15.18% 189.95% 11 1.70% 22.96% 12 121.42% 1585.15% 13-5.38% -29.72% 14-43.78% -302.26% 15-50.95% -143.69% 16 4.50% 123.12% 17-7.03% -13.92% 18-15.51% -32.43% 19 61.07% 747.26% 20 32.73% 512.56% 21 95.45% 1425.00% 22-4.18% -28.48% 23 21.86% 266.50% 24 12.32% 161.51% 25 6.72% 144.28% 26 46.79% 1247.67% 27 29.16% 285.74%% 8.47% 2004 19
2.3 18599.77% 3735.57% 1054.07% 7057.64% 2372.01% 770.23% 7005.86% 1732.34% 751.45% 2017.34% 1460.28% 668.91% 1887.26% 1390.35% 506.09% [/][ ] % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 20
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2004 21
2.3 GDP 20 GDP. GDP GDP 2006 6 J 2006 550 10 10 5 2000 20 H H 12 H 10 8 6 12 50 2006 6 H H 120 150 1994 2003 10 GDP GDP 22
GDP 2.4 10 GDP GDP 2.6 1996 2003 2.99 2.85 2.92 GDP 2005 1.91 8 GDP 2.03 GDP 1 2.03 GDP 1996 2.64 2003 4.06 GDP GDP 2.6 GDP GDP /GD 1996 969.36 915.68 1885.04 71176.6 2.64 1997 1060.63 1203.38 2264.01 78873.0 2.87 1998 1235.72 1515.04 2747.76 84402.3 3.26 1999 1410.33 1719.88 3130.21 89677.1 3.49 2000 1659.46 2091.58 3751.04 99214.6 3.78 2001 2054.92 2332.5 4387.42 109655.2 4.00 2002 2486.24 2474.46 4960.70 120332.7 4.12 2003 2898.18 2612.46 5510.64 135822.8 4.06 2006,2003 2004 23
R.S.Eckaus2003 2.1 19942003 2.1 24
19942003 GDP 2.5 1.1 10 Z 1 100 3 83.515 2.5 9 25
2.7 89 900-1000 / 2 3 40 53 34 3 400 65 150 4 5000 5 / 26
Z 10 3.1 2004 24495.04 2004 12.9988 1884.41 500 800 ( 3.1.) 2003 300 20 50 60 27
3.1. 2005 2003 837.77 1761.64 550 1399.93 X 1254.76 1098.34 586 1138.43 230.72 913.03 511.59 1099.23 788 1973.6 2004 3.2 2003 8 80 23000 16000 7000 16 220 11 1.1 28
1.1 2006 70 8 8 2 3.3 GDP 1 2004 GDP 30 0.2 29
30
2 1994 25 3 output 31
4 5 5 2005 10 6 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3.5 80 32
1 2BnchmarksBaselin Data 3 ab cd e 33