35 6 2011 11 Vol. 35 No. 6 November 2011 27 Population Research * AECI 1980 ~ 2050 2020 2030 2040 2010 4 530022 The Economic Pressure of Population Ageing in China and Its Regulation Mo Long Abstract By adopting the AECI Index Method proposed by the author and using method of population simulation this paper analyzes quantitatively the trend intensity and regulation of the e- conomic pressure of population ageing in China and compares China with other countries.it draws the following conclusions 1 China will face great economic pressure due to population ageing in the first half of this century.according to the medium projection the pressure will increase most rapidly during the period from the middle of 2020s to the end of 2030s and reach its peak around 2040 when the intensity of the pressure may quadruple that in 2010. 2 The great economic pressure of population ageing may remarkably reduce China s development momentum. 3 To ease the pressure we should rely mainly on economic measures supplemented by population control measures. 4 To gradually liberalize the prevailing birth control policy on the premise of sticking to the state policy of family planning is a rational approach to regulate the economic pressure of population ageing in China.On the one hand this can ease the possible economic pressure of ageing in the future and on the other hand it can control the pressure of population size within an endurable limit. Keywords Population ageing Economic pressure Regulation Fertility policy Author Mo Long is PhD and professor Guangxi Institute of Population Research.Nanning 530022.Email molongcn@ hotmail.com * 06BRK007 Countries Countries Regions
28 35 1 19 United Nations 1956 Henripin and Loriaux 1995 2009 1980 2030 AECI 2009 2 AECI 1980 ~ 2050 2. 1 2009 Ageing and Economics Coordination Index AECI
6 29 1 2010 500 103 1 65 GDP + 0. 822 R 2 = 0. 805 1 2010 1980 ~ 2050 Figure 1 Economic Pressure of Population Ageing A Comparison of Various Countries in 2010 and the Trend in China 1980 ~ 2050 1 2010 500 103 2 2015 ~ 2050 GDP 2 United Nations. 2011. World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision. www. un. org / esa /population World Bank. 2011. World Development Indicators 2011. www. worldbank. org 1980 ~ 2010 31 2 2010 1 GDP GDP 65 2010 2010 AECI 1 2 103 500 500 500 1980 ~ 2007 + 0. 787 + 0. 884 2009 2008 ~ 2010 + 0. 841 + 0. 841 + 0. 822
30 35 1 2010 AECI AECI AECI 1 2030 2010 AECI + 3. 5 2030 2010 AECI AECI 65 GDP AECI 1-1 < AECI < 1 AECI - 1 AECI AECI AECI 1 2. 2 2010 ~ 2050 4 4 2009 4 1 AECI AECI AECI AECI AECI 2009
6 31 2013 2050 2010 ~ 2012 2013 ~ 2015 2 3 2016 ~ 2022 2 3 2023 ~ 2040 2 3 2013 ~ 2015 2 3 2016 ~ 2040 2 3 2013 ~ 2022 2023 ~ 2040 2041 ~ 2050 1 1. 5 ~ 1. 8 2011 2010 1. 5 PRB 2010 1. 6 United Nations 2011 2010 1. 6 1 1 2010 ~ 2050 Table 1 Total Fertility Rate under Various Fertility Policies China 2010-2050 \ 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2022 2023 2030 2050 1. 60 1. 57 1. 55 1. 53 1. 53 1. 50 1. 50 1. 50 1. 50 1. 60 1. 57 1. 65 1. 80 1. 80 1. 80 1. 80 1. 80 1. 80 1. 60 1. 57 1. 80 1. 85 2. 10 2. 20 2. 35 2. 30 1. 90 1. 60 1. 57 2. 05 2. 20 2. 35 2. 35 2. 35 2. 30 1. 90 1. 60 1. 57 2. 05 2. 20 2. 35 2. 35 2. 55 2. 50 2. 00 2. 2 2010 ~ 2050 AECI 2010 ~ 2050 65 GDP 2010 ~ 2050 Demproj 3. 51 USA Agency for International Development 2010 2. 3 2011 ~ 2050 GDP 2011 ~ 2050 AECI GDP 1
32 35 World Bank 2008 Asian Development Bank 2010 OECD Maddison 2007 1 O Neill and Stupnytska 2009 EIU 2010 2030 GDP 2 OECD 2011 ~ 2050 GDP O Neill and Stupnytska 2009 2011 ~ 2050 GDP 5 OECD 2030 GDP 2011 ~ 2050 GDP 2010 GDP World Bank 2010 2 2 2011 ~ 2050 GDP Figure 2 A Prediction of China s Per Capita GDP Between 2011 and 2050 2. 3 1 2 Goldman Sachs GDP 2005 ~ 2050 2010 ~ 2050 GDP 2010 2005 2010 GDP 2010 ~ 2050 GDP 2009 GDP
6 33 2. 4 1980 ~ 2010 GDP World Bank 2011 2011 ~ 2050 GDP 2. 3 EIU 2010 ~ 2030 G20 33 1 GDP EIU 2010 GDP PPP 2005 GDP GDP 1980 ~ 2050 65 GDP United Nations 2009 2011 2010 ~ 2050 United Nations 2009 3 3. 1 1980 ~ 2010 2006 2007 AECI 1970 AECI 2 1980 ~ 2010 1. 6 ~ 2. 9 1 1980 ~ 2010 AECI 2010 AECI 1. 6 500 103 AECI - 6. 0 ~ 9. 3 16 2010 500 GDP 7000 56 GDP 6810 AECI 1. 6 4 1 1980 ~ 2000 21 AECI 1980 2. 5 2000 2. 9 2010 1. 6 3. 2 2011 ~ 2050 3 GDP 4 2011 ~ 2015 2025 AECI 2010 1. 6 2015 1. 3 2020 2. 1 2025 2. 5 2000 2. 9 1 2 3 4 33 3 3. 3 2010 2011 ~ 2050 GDP GDP 2011 ~ 2050 GDP GDP
34 35 3 20 3 33 Figure 3 Trend of Economic Pressure of Population Ageing in China A Comparison with 33 Most Developed Economies 1 United Nations. 2011. World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision. www. un. org /esa /population World Bank. 2011. World Development Indicators 2011. www. worldbank. org Economist Intelligence Unit EIU. 2010. Long - Term Forecasts up to 2030. www. alacra. com. 2 GDP 2 1 1980 ~ 2050 1980 ~ 2030 GDP 36000 2 2030 33 EIU 2010 United Nations 2009 GDP 82 2030 GDP 19014 1980 ~ 2030 500 AECI 2025 15 3 AECI 2025 2. 5 2040 6. 3 15 2. 5 2025 ~ 2040 2040 2036 ~ 2045 AECI 3 AE- CI 5 2040 3 3. 3 AECI
6 35 2040 1 2010 4 30 40 2010 AECI 30 40 GDP 2010 2010 1 2030 2030 United Nations 2011 GDP EIU 2010 1980 ~ 2050 33 2 1980 ~ 2030 AECI GDP 30 40 AECI 2030 3 3. 4 3 2 GDP GDP 2011 ~ 2050 GDP OECD 2030 GDP GDP AECI 2010 2040 2040 AECI 10. 7 2010 6. 8 2040 AECI 33 3 40 AECI GDP AECI 2030 2040 1 2 GDP GDP 2040 1 2040 3 2040 AECI 2040 GDP AECI 2030 GDP 1980 ~ 2030 GDP AECI 3
36 35 5. 0 2040 AECI 2010 3. 2 33 3 3. 5 30 40 Qiao 2006 2011 AECI 30 2028 AE- CI 1980 ~ 2010 2. 4 2015 2028 2030 ~ 2045 AECI 5. 2 2040 ~ 2045 6. 1 1980 ~ 2010 2. 5 30 40 G20 1999 G20 2 /3 90% 2030 2040 AECI G20 GDP 2035 ~ 2040 2. 5 AECI 5. 4-5. 7-5. 7-4. 4-4. 2-1. 1-1. 1-0. 2 0. 4 2. 4 G20 AECI 4 4. 1 Sanderson and Scherbov 2010 21 OECD 2005 2011 Jackson and Howe 2004
6 37 4. 2 1 3 4 4. 3 30 40 2 2050 AECI 2011 ~ 2045 2035 ~ 2045 AECI 5. 9 5. 7 1 2
38 35 4. 4 1 65 2050 25. 9% 1 2050 24. 0% 21. 8% 21. 3% 20. 7% 2 2 2010 ~ 2050 Table 2 Main Simulation Results of Various Plans for Fertility Policy Regulation between 2010 and 2050 China \ 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 A. 13. 3 13. 8 13. 9 13. 4 12. 5 13. 9 2025 13. 3 14. 0 14. 3 14. 1 13. 6 14. 3 2030 13. 3 14. 2 14. 9 15. 1 14. 9 15. 1 2041 13. 3 14. 4 15. 1 15. 3 15. 3 15. 4 2045 13. 3 14. 4 15. 3 15. 6 15. 7 15. 8 2048 B. 65 % 8. 2 12. 0 16. 8 23. 4 25. 9 25. 9 2050 8. 2 11. 9 16. 2 22. 2 24. 0 24. 0 2050 8. 2 11. 7 15. 6 20. 9 21. 8 21. 8 2050 8. 2 11. 6 15. 4 20. 5 21. 3 21. 3 2050 8. 2 11. 6 15. 2 20. 1 20. 7 20. 7 2050 AECI AECI 2040 17. 9% 39. 7% 45. 8% 51. 3% 4 4 4. 5 2013 2030 14. 3 2 AECI 17. 9% 4 AECI 51. 3% 4 2048 15. 8 2 15 2007 1
6 39 1 4 Figure 4 2010 ~ 2045 Economic Pressure of Population Ageing in China under Different Fertility Policies between 2010 and 2045 and a Comparison with other Countries 1 33 3 AECI GDP 2 2010 ~ 2045 1980 ~ 2030 GDP 36000 1. 3 2. 2013 AECI 2040 39. 7% AECI 2020 ~ 2045 4 33 2035 ~ 2045 AECI 2040 2035 ~ 2045 AECI 1 1 2 4 2016 2 3 AECI 45. 8% 2045 15. 4 15
40 35 2040 4 4 4. 6 2013 2041 15. 1 2050 14. 9 2 15 5 21 AECI 1980 ~ 2050 1980 2010 ~ 2025 15 2015 2040 2020 2030 2036 ~ 2045 2040 2010 4
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