untitled

Working Papers on Science and Modernization

24 100 21 13 50 20 50 20 50 5060 7080 8090 20 30 20 80 20 90 1999 2001 2005 10 1

1. 4 2. 16 3. 23 4. 26 5. 37 6. 43 7. 47 8. 53 1. 64 2. 68 3. 73 4. 78 5. 82 6. 93 2

1. 102 2. 105 3. 110 4. 117 1. 128 2. 132 3. 137 4. 145 5. 151 6. 156 7. 161 3

CCMR-SM-WP-0049 21 1 2 3 10 100 100 300 21 4 1 GDP GNI GDP GNI 2001 GDP GNI 1960 2001 1980 1990 7 2 6 3 1 4

1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001 GDP 6 8 12 11 6 80 92 96 128 130 GDPPPP 5 4 10 3 2 97 123 130 GNI 6 8 11 11 6 75 87 96 124 130 GNIPPP 5 4 10 3 2 102 127 130 2 1 3 2 1 40 73 91 121 125 3 10 11 3 73 91 121 125 1 5 6 3 57 73 104 121 4 20 18 7 73 91 121 125 7 106 3 2 2 105 92 110 6 71 22 22 16 7 87 95 123 129 22 24 15 8 87 95 123 129 3 3 3 3 108 108 108 129 1 1 1 1 1 130 131 131 131 131 1 1 1 1 1 130 131 131 131 131 2 2 2 % 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001 GDP 4.6 3.2 1.7 1.6 3.8 4.6 GDPPPP 3.1 5.5 11.4 8.4 10.2 11.4 GNI 4.7 3.2 1.7 1.7 3.7 3.2 GNIPPP 3.2 5.6 11.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 3.6 7.3 8.5 16.1 0.6 0.9 1.6 4.0 2.3 2.1 7.0 9.4 8.9 10.8 2.6 7.5 25.6 25.7 26.4 27.0 25.6 0.7 0.9 2.0 22.1 22.3 22.1 21.6 20.8 20% 10% 2001 GDP GNI 4% 1960 2001 GDP GNI 11% 5

3 2001 1990 1980 2001 5 70 GDP GNP 2001 6 80 2001 GDP 117 3 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001 GDP 78 82 94 105 75 97 96 96 123 129 GDPPPP 90 91 93 95 67 102 102 97 123 130 GNP 73 88 89 77 84 92 106 130 GNPPPP 103 96 69 109 125 130 80 83 94 112 83 97 96 96 123 129 86 76 90 104 79 87 84 91 122 92 64 86 102 58 86 91 114 90 77 91 95 71 83 92 113 92 41 49 58 80 48 84 82 92 122 123 102a 63 130 131 80 99 81 80 109 109 95 109 88 95 122 129 81 81 93 89 87 106 109 128 131 125 70 79 83 73 93 103 123 130 87 116 120 82 102 128 128 91 90 100 110 117 93 100 122 129 a 4 2001 24 73 32000 83000 2001 8 26 4 6

13 2.6 8 2 46 5 4 2001 GNI 890 GDP 911 1519 481 3515 1968 0.95 37 905 / 26 = 5 2001 15 51 34 50 23 27 449 /GDP 40 /GDP 37 = = 21 4 1 300 GDP GDP17001950 19502001 6 7

40 GDP GDP19601990 19902001 7 2001 GDP 2001 GDP 100 70 40 20 8 6 17002001 GDP 1990 1700 1820 1870 1900 1913 1950 1970 1990 2001 114 48 22 16 10 4.6 5.4 8.0 12 104 42 22 15 13 6.5 5.9 5.6 8 108 53 30 28 26 20 67 81 73 237 136 131 112 93 72 74 71 70 187 98 77 70 66 55 80 78 70 170 84 74 77 69 41 74 69 74 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 117 53 35 32 28 22 26 22 22 7 19602001 GDP 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 3.2 2.7 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 17 26 40 60 75 64 107 152 108 92 48 50 44 56 78 46 75 70 70 69 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 16 16 16 19 20 15 18 19 15 14 8 2001 GDP 1990 GDP GDP 3583 2001 3583 2001 3645 1870 131 3738 1951 50 3649 1881 120 3768 1958 43 3732 1892 109 3988 1960 41 3644 1906 95 3702 1965 36 3718 1923 78 3882 1973 28 3772 1925 76 3775 1977 24 2 92000 1913 1870 102000 1870 1820 2001 2001 100 50 30 112001 100 80 40 20 8

12 9 18202000 % 1820 1870 1900 1913 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 69 67 59 23 34 30 27 16 10 10 21 45 38 49 42 51 22 23 20 32 28 21 31 33 58 60 51 50 45 39 31 25 16 20 22 24 28 27 33 30 33 37 41 48-63 34 30 26 13 6 4 2 1 14 20 32 45 47 40 39 32 52 50 32 42 47 56 58 67 26 15 7 6 6 3 3 2 2 1 32 40 43 38 46 43 44 42 35 29 39 44 50 56 48 54 53 55 63 70 43 21 17 18 7 4 3 3 2 2 26 21 26 27 38 38 35 33 28 25 32 58 57 55 55 58 62 64 70 73 10 18202000 % 1820 1870 1900 1913 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 90 84 82 80 69 54 50 3 7 9 10 18 19 23 7 9 9 9 12 10 27 74 67 72 70 74 74 70 69 58 15 10 8 11 11 13 14 16 11 23 22 15 15 17 17 25 86 71 60 48 33 20 10 7 5 6 16 26 30 34 35 34 31 9 13 27 37 46 54 58 63 37 23 9 12 5 4 3 3 2 2 33 42 51 49 48 45 38 32 25 30 35 40 46 48 52 60 65 73 70 50 38 28 12 7 4 4 3 3 15 24 30 35 36 34 31 26 23 15 26 32 54 57 62 66 71 75 9

11 2001 50 23 27 2001 50 23 27 2001 34 30 36 1801 200 48 28 24 1936 65 50 24 26 1870 131 46 29 25 1950 51 49 28 23 1870 131 48 23 29 1950 51 50 29 22 1870 131 45 23 32 1970 31 44 23 33 1901 100 46 18 36 1970 31 33 34 33 1901 100 50 7 43 1970 31 12 2001 15 51 34 2001 15 51 34 2001 15 40 23 1870 131 13 41 46 1960 41 15 29 56 1914 87 13 45 42 1960 41 18 30 52 1925 76 15 30 55 1960 41 16 50 34 1935 66 15 33 52 1965 36 13 48 39 1950 51 17 59 24 1980 21 15 41 44 1955 46 15 41 44 1980 21 3 13 2001 116 100 97 17 22 16 89 100 95 43 76 43 101 100 90 31 39 31 100 100 95 14 11 13 99 100 98 100 100 100 87 98 84 28 36 26 80 100 88 12 11 13 95 100 92 45 67 38 14 2001 GDP % % 3583 2001 50 2001 15 2001 3649 1881 120 34 1801 200 15 1870 131 143 3732 1892 109 50 1870 131 15 1914 87 109 3645 1870 131 33 1901 100 15 1955 46 102 3644 1906 95 44 1901 100 18 1925 76 92 3772 1925 76 50 1870 131 16 1935 66 87 3718 1923 78 49 1870 131 13 1950 51 85 3738 1951 50 48 1936 65 13 1960 41 52 3988 1960 41 48 1950 51 13 1960 41 44 3768 1958 43 46 1950 51 17 1980 21 40 3702 1965 36 45 1970 31 15 1960 41 36 3882 1973 28 46 1970 31 15 1955 46 33 3775 1977 24 50 1970 31 15 1980 21 25 10

132001 1622% 142001 100 80 40 30 4 2000 GNP GDP 2000 GDP 7.2% 2.5% 3 2000 GNP GDP 2000 GDP 58 GDP 851 2000 GDP 793 914 772 15 21 50 21 21 11

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17 21 2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 70~2002 2.21 21.6 26 32 40 49 62 77 95 118 80~2002 3.32 21.6 28 39 54 75 104 90~2002 5.61 21.6 33 58 99 2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 70~2002 2.91 17 21 29 38 51 67 90 120 159 212 283 80~2002 2.88 17 21 28 38 50 67 88 117 156 207 275 90~2002 4.06 17 23 35 52 77 115 172 256 381 567 845 1.52 100 112 131 152 176 205 238 277 322 374 435 1.76 45 52 62 73 87 104 124 147 175 208 248 2002 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 70~2002 0.83 15.6 17 18 20 21 23 25 27 30 32 35 80~2002 2.35 15.6 19 24 30 38 48 60 76 96 121 90~2002 3.83 15.6 21 31 45 65 95 138 1.49 26 29 34 39 45 53 61 71 82 95 110-0.12 38 3 21 2005 2 13

2100 2080 2050 2020 2010 2 21 50 40 21 50 10 60 2020 2050 2080 2100 2020 2030 2040 2050 2080 2090 21 50 30 21 50 30 4 21 50 2005 10 1 221 50 321 30 421 30 14

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CCMR-SM-WP-0051 1860 2 40-45 19 1/3 20 60-90 200 =100 1834 1852 1861 1867 1913 87.7 76.6 72.9 81.0 64.5 12.2 23.4 27.1 19.0 35.5 21.9 19.1 12.9 16.9 8.6 5.5 3.8 5.3 4.8 12.6 7.0 5.9 4.2 3.6 5.6 23

=100 1880 1900 1910 1925 1938 1950 1957 42.8 61.3 75.5 62.7 78.3 74.5 44.2 29.5 12.3 23.5 14.4 15.6 13.0 9.3 12.2 13.7 7.3 9.9 / 23.6 38.2 12.0 51.8 10.5 18.2 / 9.9 13.0 9.7 3.1 39.6 23.8 34.7 9.9 13.0 9.7 2.2 14.3 4.3 9.4 10 30 4-6 50 60 70 80% 2004 2 23 2003 110114 39250 35.7 16774 15.2 13979 12.9 5.5 4.3 1205 611 376 221 123 2.3 2003 3M IBM 2004 2 24 24

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CCMR-SM-WP-0057 1957 1961 1965 1966 1970 1972 1977 1986 1960 8 21 8 9 10 10 8 9 10 1993 354 64

1973 1959 1971 1961 1963 1969 1971 1972 1978 1968 1981 100% 1981 1971 1992 60% 1963 148% 20% 11 60 60 70 70 9% 11 65

1960 155 1980 1643 1965 70 80 1960 1989 9% 1970 389 1990 7954 1965 1960 433 1996 30897 12 1961 70 80 1960 1996 78% 1960 97 1995 2750 70 8%80 5%90 9% 1960 275 1995 4337 1967 60 70 80 70 7 1997 12 13 263 66

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* 14 CCMR-SM-WP-0058 1949 26% 1956 1957 79%1958 89%1960 90% 90% 100% * 14 1954 100872 68

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CCMR-SM-WP-0060 [1] Robert M. GrantPorter s Competitive Advantage of Nations An Assessment,Strategic Management Journal,12(1991),Table1,p.540 78

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CCMR-SM-WP-0061 40 15 1 1999 1 1999 () ( ) (/ ) GDP( ) GNP(PPP ) GNP(PPP) (206 ) ( )% 1254 9598 134 780 3550 127 32 127 378 336 32230 25170 15 79 (%) % 1 1999 R&D GDP (%) () () % () 39.2 50 1071(200 1.0(200 47 18.5 0.403 73 7.11 70.2 3.2 (2000 (200 0) 0) ) 0) 38.8 1236(196 5-0.249 82 9.47 80.8 4.9 (1960 -- 3.12 0) ) 2000 2001 1 15 82

1 1991 8.87 24.4 1/3 GDP 2.4% GDP 14.1% 1999 1 18.5%1999 39.2% 1960 2000 1960 GDP 1960~2000 9.2% 5% GDP 100 1930 25% 50% 1930~1995 60% 70% 1955~1970 70% 80% 1970 1998 79.0% 95% 1949 10.6% 1999 32.0%, 77 1998 47% 53% 1.5 1 1999 2.36 9% 1981 1873 28% 1890 50%1910 1920 99.0%1873 3.9% 40 83

15.5% 1870 5.6% 1978 22.2% 30 1900 1930 1920 1950, 1995 1.5%, 20 30 1997 2 90 R&D GDP 2 R&D GDP 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2.90 2.90 2.88 2.81 2.76 2.87 2.93 3.03 3.14 3.12 0.75 0.74 0.71 0.65 0.58 0.52 0.56 0.6 0.69 0.83 1.0 2001 2001 2 R&D GDP 90 3% R&D GDP 1.0% 20 20 80 21 20 80 1998 2000 IT 90 IT 90 4% 3 1991~2001 84

3 1991~2001 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ( 6395 6437 6454 6455 6456 6512 6557 6495 6455 NA NA ) 137 146 175 194 216 225 236 294 320 332 357 () (%) 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.5 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.3 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.6 () 2001 3 19912001 6400 1 67 1 2003 9.5% 1 1999 80.8 70.2 4 4 1999 32 14 2000 41 21 1999 49 14 2000 44 14 World Economic Forum, Harvard University, 2000,The Global Compettiveness Report 2000, Oxford University Press, pp.11 5 85

5 1999 (1998 ) ( ) GNP ( )% (%) 1238.6 9597 780 32 18.5 0.403 0.4226 46.4 99 8490 81 <2 0.316 0.2175 20002001 1 60 60 60 70-80 90 30 1962-1966 1967-1977 8.5% 9.7% 1971-1981 8.7%1981-1990 9.9%1991-1992 4.8%1971 95 1992 2836 22 30 1971 288 1995 9700 25 33.7 1978 1999 GDP780 GDP8490 6 1961-1994 6 % 1961 38.7 15.4 45.9 - - - - 1963 43.1 16.2 40.7 63.4 8.7 27.9 36.6 1970 26.7 22.3 51.0 50.4 14.3 35.3 49.6 1980 14.9 30.2 55.4 34.0 22.5 43.5 66.0 1990 8.7 29.7 61.6 18.3 27.3 54.4 81.7 1994 7.1 27.4 65.5 13.6 24.1 62.3 86.4 520 86

6 GDP 1961 38.7% 1994 7.1% 1963 63.1% 1994 13.6% GDP 1961 45.9% 1994 65.5% 1963 27.9% 1994 63.3% 1963 36.6% 1994 86.4% 1978 1949 10.64% 2000 36.1% 1949 5765 2000 45684 4 2000 GDP 860 36.1% 1976 GDP 800 50% 7 7 1926-1991 7.7% 10% 1976 1981 1986 1991 1981 1986 1991 GNP(1957 316.4 390.9 519.6 702.9 475.2 705.4 1055.8 ) 40% 20% 14.5/4 14.4/43. 15.7/45 19.5/41 16.9/45.3 14.2/44.1 17.5/43.7 4.5 8.5.3 12.6 14.4 16.5 19.2 14.9 17.5 20.3 3.9 6.5 7.8 6.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 1977-1991 233 7 GDP 1976 40% 16.9% 20% 45.3% 1999 780 1976 GNP316.44 802 0.403 0.316 GNP 1981-1991 1999 GDP780 1976-1981 3.1% GDP 3.9% 1999 18.5% 2% RD 1989 28 1997 133 RD 90 80% 80 87

RD GDP 8 40 1962 4 1999 1430 8 RD GDP 1992 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2.17 2.69 2.79 2.89 2.83 2.67 0.79 0.6 0.6 0.64 0.69 0.83 1.0 0.74 :1 :..19951998 1999 2000 4 219921999 2000 2000 RD 2000 1 1/5 90% 11.1%1991 70% 1983 1984 53.9 /42.3 /42.3 / 129 / 298 / 9 1999 9 1999 88

1998 GNP % % 1997 1238.6 9597 780 32 18.5 0.403 907 0.2 0.4226 979.7 3288 450 28 44.2 0.378 479 0.6 0.6861 20002001200119365 : 1 1999 1999 3400 9886 274 1547 1.95 5.08 5.9% 7.1% GNP450 780 WEF IMD 10 10 WEF IMD 1955 1966 1997 1998 1999 2000 34 36 29 28 32 41 39 45 45 50 52 49 42 49 44 44 42 37 48 49 53 53 58 59 34 26 27 24 29 31 39 38 41 41 39 43 48 45 46 46 47 47 2000 2001.2 10 208 10 1757 1948 10 460 5.4%, 12 50 89

0.9% 3329 1999-2000 57 800 1996-1997 16 2000 34 2008 220 1948 1998 1000 2000-2001 130 97 21.4% 16.7% 2000 550 230 66 1.2% 4 1/10 16 30.1%20.4% 17.3% 1500 1000 3%50-200 42%50 55% ISO CMM5 300 170 ISO9001 CMM5 59 29 Adobe 11 16 2002 5 P50 90

11 % 1997 1998 1999 5.2 5.2 32.2 31.4 62.6 63.4 19.1 18.6 17.6 50.0 49.3 49.4 30.9 32.1 33.0 28.0 29.1 27.2 27.1 25.7 26.3 44.0 45.2 46.0 31 27 42 12 38 50 3 36 1980 59 :2002 3 10 1998 11 9 1999 32% 28% 49.4% 26.3% 91999 0.4226 0.6861 1999 1 18.5% 44.2% 1999 0.403 0.378 3.6% 2000 2.87% 91

10 20 3.375 15 700-3000 2001 6000 5 3 1 1/3 10% 17 1/3 71 20 2001 1999 226~227 4 : 43 40 ISSCI 71 2-202 510262 17 2002.7.1 92

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CCMR-SM-WP-0064 GDP 38 1979~2003 25 27 5.4% 6.0% 5.8% 5.4% 3.9% 25 2.0% 1978 5.5 2003 34.1 7.0%, 3.2% 5.2% 10 2003 13.6 10 1979 4.4 10.6 3.5% 25 1.1%() 5.8% 0.8% 4.1% 6.4% 7.3% 0.9% 25 25 27 5.4% 11 4.2% 1.2 22% 1991~2003 13 31% GDP GDP 3-4% 5.1% 4%2003 105

6.2% 2003 1262 GDP 1%2003 8575 GDP 7.3% 5364 GDP 4.6% GDP10% 90% GDP 2003 7% 16% 30% 27~10% GDP GDP 25% 36%2003 47% GDP 40% 20 % 20% 25 60% 57% 3.6% 3.3% 1991-2003 21% 15% GDP 9.7% GDP 1978 52.7 2003 21.1 1978 GDP 1.7 ; 1978 24% 2003 10% 1978 2000 130 GNP 1980 4.4% 1996 4.8% 3.4% 3.9% 5.5% 7-8% 1% GDP 2% GDP 1970 1.2% 1985 2.8% 2.8% 1995-1997 1.8% 2003 3730 GDP 3.1% GDP 1% 2003 290 35 1400 2.7% 90 1991-2000 GDP 4% 2003 0.9 ; 2003 17 2002 106

30% 4 2400 ; 2003 15 11% 55~20%; 5.1% 1%~4% 55 280 GDP 0.4~0.5% 2003 1058 GDP 0.83% 0.9 % 0.83% GDP GDP 1.4~2% 1991-2002 12 0.96% 80% 1991 20% 2000 10% 1.3% 12 28%2003 0.68 1.76 1/3 10% 9.5% 2004 1.6~1.7% 70% 30% 40~60% 60~80% 1990 10.9 2003 108.2 8.9 473 3911 7.3 1991 25.1% 2002 15.2% 39.2% 26.5% 35.7% 58.3% 1991 267.0 3316.5 12 11.4 3 3.6 50% 87% 41% 47% 31% 70~90% 2003 6.7% 37%; 10% 1300 30 2010 GDP 8.2% GDP 6.4% 14.6% 1997 " " 107

2000 191 144 188 0.30 0.415 2004 0.53 1988 0.382 0.15 16 40% 1978 2.7 2003 7.4 25 4.7 2004 0.45~0.53 0.3~0.4 0.46~0.43 0.59 60-80% 20%80% 1978 2.57 1985 1.86 2004 3.21 1978 0.64 6 2004 2003 1765 14 1261 GDP 1991 1.86 2003 2.52 12 2.7 5.6 2003 1.2 1.3 7643 2003 3.44 1991 0.85 2003 2.25 2.23 4.26 3.34 6969 6.1 1978 1.3 4.8 108

44% 15% 05/3/10 109

* CCMR-SM-WP-0065 / * 110

111

20202025 2015 GDP 123 2200231.62%2005 2005201034.57% 201543.76%2015 202041.81%35% 112

424 113

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CCMR-SM-WP-0066 2020 12441692 / 2641 20 1.51%1.85% 2.7% 21 50 21 20 21 20 1 2 1 2 20 2004 2001-2005 100 80 1 117

1 2050 2020 1993 1970 1946 1914 1870 1763 1500 618 500 4000 1 4 20 250 2 2000 22000 1 2 2000 1 1 0.6212*** 1 0.6353*** 1 0.0532 0.5950*** 1 0.3566* 0.2731 1 / GDP/ ****** 118

1 2000 80 3 20 40 2003 21 20 2000 2000 2000 EU t = 28.2083FMI t 0.2351EF t 781.796 119

EU FMI EF 3 3 2000 Multiple R 0.735473 R Square 0.54092 Adjusted R Square 0.523263 415.2432 55 df SS MS F Significance F 2 10564614.8 5282307 30.63505 1.62E-09 52 8966199.27 172426.9 54 19530814 Coefficients t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept -781.796 227.45978-3.43707 0.001165-1238.23-325.365 28.20833 3.6131921 7.80704 2.57E-10 20.95794 35.45873-0.23506 0.05609332-4.19053 0.000108-0.34762-0.1225 2020 19782020 4 4 19782000 1 0.962*** 1 0.8995*** 0.905*** 1 19782000 EF t = 13.3016FMI t + 0.0872EF t 139.616 EU FMI EF 5 23 120

5 19782000 Multiple R 0.964365 R Square 0.9299999 Adjusted R Square 0.9229999 31.611438 23 df SS MS F Significance F 2 265523.54 132761.77 132.85702 2.825E-12 20 19985.661 999.28303 22 285509.2 Coefficients t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept -139.6158 110.88751-1.259076 0.2225007-370.9229 91.691413 13.301567 2.2632249 5.8772624 9.492E-06 8.5805646 18.022569 0.0872191 0.0762075 1.1444948 0.2659313-0.071747 0.2461851 4 20 20 20 EU t = 13.3016FMI t + 0.0872EF t 139.616 EU t = 28.2083FMI t 0.2351EF t 781.796 19782000 6 2 2 19782000 121

6 19782000 1978 618 583 34 646-28 1979 620 587 33 636-17 1980 610 606 4 667-57 1981 598 612-15 676-78 1982 607 635-27 721-114 1983 623 642-19 725-103 1984 652 668-17 773-121 1985 670 733-63 887-218 1986 683 711-27 851-168 1987 707 713-6 879-172 1988 734 727 7 896-162 1989 737 740-2 909-171 1990 767 744 23 920-153 1991 759 762-4 950-191 1992 776 786-10 986-210 1993 810 803 7 1027-217 1994 838 820 18 1024-187 1995 885 835 50 1010-125 1996 915 852 63 1014-99 1997 909 881 28 1046-136 1998 896 899-3 1063-167 1999 892 923-31 1100-208 2000 905 949-44 1130-226 19782000 2000 5 20 20 19782000 20 19782000 20 2020 2000 2020 20 FMI t = 1.0240t + 51.2117 FMI t = 76 1.0167 t FMI t = = 1 / (0.009866 + 0.003863e 0.16t ) 7 122

7 1978 53 52 2000 76 75 76 76 1979 53 53 2001 78 76 77 79 1980 54 54 2002 81 77 79 82 1981 54 55 2003 78 80 84 1982 56 56 2004 79 81 86 1983 56 57 2005 80 83 88 1984 58 58 2006 81 84 90 1985 63 59 2007 82 85 91 1986 61 60 2008 83 87 93 1987 62 61 2009 84 88 94 1988 63 62 2010 85 90 95 1989 63 63 2011 86 91 96 1990 64 65 2012 87 93 97 1991 65 66 2013 88 94 97 1992 67 67 2014 89 96 98 1993 68 68 2015 90 97 98 1994 69 69 2016 91 99 99 1995 69 70 2017 92 101 99 1996 70 71 2018 93 102 99 1997 71 72 2019 94 104 100 1998 72 73 2020 95 106 100 1999 74 74 20 19782000 20 23 19782000 20 EF t = 27.7864t + 162.3039 EF t = 945 1.0624 t EF t = 26.88FMI t 1211.17 8 20 123

8 1978 249 190 205 205 2001 829 1004 910 826 1979 292 218 206 206 2002 857 1067 982 854 1980 315 246 240 240 2003 885 1133 1047 881 1981 325 273 251 251 2004 913 1204 1106 909 1982 330 301 295 295 2005 940 1279 1158 936 1983 357 329 305 305 2006 968 1359 1205 964 1984 379 357 355 355 2007 996 1444 1246 991 1985 433 385 476 476 2008 1024 1534 1282 1019 1986 406 412 436 436 2009 1051 1629 1314 1046 1987 350 440 450 450 2010 1079 1731 1341 1074 1988 380 468 473 473 2011 1107 1839 1365 1101 1989 415 496 493 493 2012 1135 1954 1386 1129 1990 407 524 502 502 2013 1163 2076 1404 1156 1991 431 551 536 536 2014 1190 2205 1420 1184 1992 463 579 577 577 2015 1218 2343 1433 1211 1993 452 607 614 614 2016 1246 2489 1445 1239 1994 543 635 632 632 2017 1274 2644 1455 1266 1995 657 662 643 643 2018 1302 2809 1463 1294 1996 733 690 664 664 2019 1329 2985 1471 1321 1997 803 718 710 710 2020 1357 3171 1477 1349 1998 850 746 737 737 1999 886 774 781 781 2000 945 801 823 823 3 20 21 20 21 20 20 20 20 EU t = 13.3016FMI t + 0.0872EF t 139.616 1 EU t = 28.2083FMI t 0.2351EF t 781.796 2 FMI t = = 1 / (0.009866 + 0.003863e 0.16t ) 3 FMI t = 1.0240t + 51.2117 4 EF t = 26.88FMI t 1211.17 5 9 3 124

9 20012020 2001 989 1230 940 1162 945 2002 1031 1289 956 1184 961 2003 1069 1342 972 1207 978 2004 1103 1390 988 1229 994 2005 1133 1432 1004 1252 1011 2006 1161 1470 1020 1274 1027 2007 1184 1504 1036 1296 1043 2008 1206 1533 1052 1319 1060 2009 1224 1559 1068 1341 1076 2010 1240 1582 1084 1364 1093 2011 1254 1601 1100 1386 1109 2012 1266 1618 1116 1408 1125 2013 1277 1633 1132 1431 1142 2014 1286 1646 1148 1453 1158 2015 1294 1656 1164 1476 1175 2016 1300 1666 1180 1498 1191 2017 1306 1674 1196 1521 1207 2018 1311 1681 1212 1543 1224 2019 1315 1687 1228 1565 1240 2020 1319 1692 1244 1588 1256 1352 35245 245 19782000 2020 12441319 / 2000 2020 15881692 / 23 2020 1256 / 125

3 19782020 20 1.51%1.85% 20 = EU 6 20 10 2020 2632 3341 126

10 2020 1319 14.0 18.5 27.7 1692 23.7 35.5 14.5 19.1 28.7 24.5 36.8 15.0 19.8 29.7 25.4 38.1 15.5 20.4 30.7 26.2 39.3 16.0 21.1 31.7 27.1 40.6 1244 14.0 17.4 26.1 1588 22.2 33.3 14.5 18.0 27.1 23.0 34.5 15.0 18.7 28.0 23.8 35.7 15.5 19.3 28.9 24.6 36.9 16.0 19.9 29.9 25.4 38.1 1 =1.5 21 20 1 1.51%1.85% 1.5%1.8% 2 2.7% 3 1., 20012005 2., 2003 3.,,2003 4., 2020, 2003 5.,,, 2004 6.,,,2005 1 18 127

CCMR-SM-WP-0067 2004 13 13 13 13 13 1 13 13 2 128

129, GDP 3 13 13

Paul David Richard Florida 1/3 1/2 1926 1989 Russell Evans 1 130

10 5 2 1.1 2 3 2.(1)2 3.1234 3 1. 2. 3. 131

* CCMR-SM-WP-0068 * 132

133.

134 20 80

2080 135

136

CCMR-SM-WP-0069,,, 20 70 20, 137

, 50 50, 138

... 139

. 44.94 41.15 140

28%. 141

. 1000. 142

3 37 20032010 1890 20 60 143

()., 23..:,,1964..:(),,2004..:2005,,2005...:,,,2004...:,,,,1999..:,,2001..:,2004..:,,1998. 144

1 1 2 1.2002352.200040 CCMR-SM-WP-0070 50% 2025 61% 55% [1] 90 [2] 1)1993 1972 1992 2) 70 3) 2002 20% 4) 1985 2061 1995 5)2004 1 2002 145

Public Acceptance of Science (Public understanding of science)(public Participation of Science) [2] 17 20 [3] 1990 HDI [4] GDP 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.5 2004 7 2002 146

HDI 1980 1995 HDI 0.86 0.91 2002 HDI 0.745 HDI 1990 2000 10 0.021 0.024 0.049 147

21 20 [2] 148

1997 432 72 16% 1% 13 260 4 12 5% 1% 1997 50 [5] [2] 149

2015 GDP 5000 [1] 2005 [2] [R],2004 [3],[R] [4], Human Development Index[M] [5],[J],,2005,(1)3-5 (1946 ) 150

CCMR-SM-WP-0071 151

152

153

154

155

CCMR-SM-WP-0072 156

157

158

159

160

CCMR-SM-WP-0073 21 21 21 21 21 1 6000 1 2 2 3 16 161

4 52/3 1/3 1 1 2 3 4 2 3 10-9 162

4 5 10 2004 8000 / 19 / 21 21 1 cyberspace 6000 2 3 19 163

4 5 21 2001 2005 8 10~12 47 28 http://www.modernization.com.cn 164