WeeklyReportCommodity_

Commodity Weekly Vol.2 15 5 21 January 2019 <= >&% ก",'.*: 049194 : (66) 2088-9348 tanapat@trinitythai.com 1

Performance of Commodity (as of Jan 21, 2019) Commodity Unit 21/1/2019 %YTD %-1W %-1M %-3M %-6M %-12M Crude Oil (Dubai) US$/bbl 61.57 18% 6% 14% -21% -13% -7% Naphtha US$/ton 498.00 7% 2% 7% -21% -23% -18% NEX US$/ton 100.84 0% 2% 0% -7% -19% -4% PX-Naphtha US$/ton 576.00 14% 4% 3% -4% 34% 48% BZ-Naphtha US$/ton 70.00 25% -3% -21% -48% -66% -79% Ethylene-Naphtha US$/ton 393.87-6% 26% 18% 16% -42% -42% Propylene-Naphtha US$/ton 418.87-2% 1% 5% na. 2% -10% Corn Cents/bushel 380.25 1% 0% 1% 2% -1% -4% Soybean Cents/bushel 914.00 2% 1% 1% 5% 4% -9% Palm Oil MYR/ton 2,253.00 6% 3% 2% -3% -3% -9% Sugar Cents/pound 13.03 8% 2% 5% -7% 10% -11% Rubber Cents/kg 165.50 11% 5% 13% 17% 15% -1% Rice US$/cwt 10.58 5% 1% 1% -2% -12% -13% HRC US$/ton 718.00 0% 0% -2% -5% 22% 9% Gold US$/oz 1,275.90-1% -1% 1% 4% 4% -4% Silver US$/oz 15.27-1% -2% 3% 4% -1% -10% Zinc US$/ton 2,596.50 3% 4% 0% -3% 1% -24% Copper US$/ton 5,951.50 0% 1% 0% -5% -2% -15% BDI Point 1,092-14% -5% -17% -28% -35% -6% BHSI Point 442-26% -14% -27% -35% -21% -24% 1 Week Performance -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Crude Oil (Dubai) Naphtha NEX PX-Naphtha BZ-Naphtha Ethylene-Naphtha Propylene-Naphtha Corn Soybean Palm Oil Sugar Rubber Rice HRC Gold Silver Zinc Copper BDI BHSI PTT, PTTEP BANPU, LANNA, UMS PTTGC, TOP, ESSO PTTGC, TOP, ESSO PTTGC, SCC, IRPC PTTGC, SCC, IRPC TVO CPI, LST, UPOIC, UVAN KSL, KBS STA, TRUBB PDI KCE, HANA, SVI, DELTA PSL, TTA PSL, TTA : Bloomberg, Aspen 2

Chart 1 Dubai Crude Oil Chart 2 Brent Crude Oil US $/bbl 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 Mar-17 Dubai Crude Oil: 61.57 as of Jan 21, 2019 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 US$/bbl 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Mar-16 May-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 May-17 Brent Crude Oil: 62.74 as of Jan 21, 2019 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 Source: Aspen Chart 3 Naphtha Chart 4 Coal: Newcastle Export Index (NEX) US$/ton 1,400 1, 800 600 400 Avg price (US$/ton) 3Q17 = 468.6 2017 = 496 4Q17 = 571.2 2018 = 617 1Q18 = 583 2019ytd = 482 2Q18 = 655.1 3Q18 = 667.5 4Q18 = 566.1 1Q19qtd = 482.4 Naphtha US$ 489.0ton as of Jan 21, 2019 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-18 Oct-18 US$/ton 220 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Avg NEX (US$/ton) 1Q16 3Q17 = 95.78 51.11 2016 2017 = 66.19 = 89.49 2Q16 4Q17 = 98.80 51.92 2017ytd 2018 = 107.79 85.15 3Q16 1Q18 = 103.35 67.44 2019ytd = 99.92 4Q16 2Q18 = 111.99 94.29 1Q17 3Q18 = 118.38 83.11 2Q17 4Q18 = 104.61 81.00 3Q17qtd 1Q19qtd = 99.92 94.09 NEX US$ 100.84ton as of Jan 18, 2019 Jan-08 Apr-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-18 Oct-18 (Unit: US$) Dubai Crude 61.57 58.97 +2.60 +4.4% Brent Crude 62.74 58.99 +3.75 +6.4% Naphtha 498.00 489.90 +8.10 +1.7% Coal (NEX) 100.84 98.45 +2.39 +2.4% 3

Chart 5 Aromatics price & spread: Paraxylene Chart 6 Aromatics price & spread: Benzene US$/ton PX Px spread 2, 1Q18 = 962 1Q18 = 381 2Q18 = 1,082 2Q18 = 428 3Q18 = 1,180 3Q18 = 514 1,800 4Q18 = 1,146 4Q18 = 573 1Q19qtd = 1,017 1Q19qtd = 541 1,400 600 Px spread 576 Spread (Px-Naphtha) Paraxylene Paraxylene, 1,069 US$/ton Benzene Bz spread 1,800 1Q18 = 889 1Q18 = 308 2Q18 = 849 2Q18 = 196 3Q18 = 857 3Q18 = 191 1,400 4Q18 = 697 4Q18 = 124 1Q19qtd = 548 1Q19qtd = 72 600 Bz spread 70 Spread (Bz-Naphtha) Benzene Benzene, 563 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jun-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Feb-13 Dec-13 May-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Nov-16 () Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jun-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Feb-13 Dec-13 May-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Nov-16 Source: PTTGC, Bloomberg Source: PTTGC, Bloomberg Chart 7 Olefins price & spread: Ethylene Chart 8 Olefins price & spread: Propylene US$/ton Ethylene Spread 2,000 1Q18 = 1,299 1Q18 = 716 2Q18 = 1,307 2Q18 = 650 3Q18 = 1,326 3Q18 = 659 1,600 4Q18 = 942 4Q18 = 380 1Q19qtd = 845 1Q19qtd = 352 1, Spread (Ethylene-Naptha) Ethylene Ethylene, 895 US$/ton Propylene Spread 1Q18 = 1,029 1Q18 = 445 1,800 2Q18 = 1,071 2Q18 = 414 3Q18 = 1,084 3Q18 = 417 4Q18 = 973 4Q18 = 411 1,400 1Q19qtd = 912 1Q19qtd = 419 Spread (Propylene-Naptha) Propylene Propylene, 920 800 394 600 418.9 400 0 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jun-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Feb-13 Dec-13 May-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Nov-16 () Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jun-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Feb-13 Dec-13 May-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Nov-16 (Unit: US$/ton) (Unit: US$/ton) Paraxylene 1,069 1,034 +35 +3.4% PX-Naphtha 576 552 +24 +4.3% Benzene 563 554 +9 +1.6% BZ-Naphtha 70 72-2 -2.8% Ethylene 895 820 +75 +9.1% Propylene 920 920 0 0.0% Ethylene Naphtha Propylene Naphtha 394 313 +81 +25.9% 419 413 +6 +1.5% 4

Chart 9 Gold Chart 10 Silver Chart 11 Copper Chart 12 Zinc Gold 1,275.90 1,291.70-15.80-1.2% Silver 15.27 15.60-0.33-2.1% Copper 5,951.50 5,867.00 +84.50 +1.4% Zinc 2,596.50 2,489.00 +107.50 +4.3% 5

Chart 13 Baltic Dry Index Chart 14 Baltic Handysize Index: TTA, PSL 2,000 BDI 1-Year Average 800 700 BHSI 1-Year Average 600 Points 500 Points 400 300 0 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Chart 15 Supply in Bulk Market Chart 16 Supply in Handysize Market Vessels 10,500 9,500 8,500 7,500 6,500 5,500 Existing Supply Additional Supply Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Dec-16 May-17 Aug-18 740 660 580 500 420 340 260 180 Vessels Vessels 2,850 2,800 2,750 2,700 2,650 2,600 2,550 2,500 2,450 2,400 2,350 Existing Supply Additional Supply Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Dec-16 May-17 Aug-18 150 100 50 Vessels BDI 1,092 1,147-55 -4.8% Bulk Carrier in Service 9,994 9,988 +6 +0.1% Bulk Carrier under Construction 445 452-7 -1.5% BHSI 442 511-69 -13.5% Handysize in Service 2,799 2,795 +4 +0.1% Handysize under Construction 72 72 0 0.0% 6

Chart 17 Corn Chart 18 Soybean 500 400 300 May-18 Nov-18 US Cents / bushel Corn US Cents / bushel 1, 1,100 900 Soybean 800 May-18 Nov-18 Chart 19 Palm Oil Chart 20 Sugar MYR / Ton 3, 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2, 2,000 1,800 Dec-17 Jun-18 Palm Oil US Cents / pound 20 18 16 14 12 10 May-18 Nov-18 Sugar Corn 380.25 378.50 +1.75 +0.5% Soybean 914.00 903.50 +10.50 +1.2% Palm oil 2,253.00 2,181.00 +72.00 +3.3% Sugar 13.03 12.75 +0.28 +2.2% 7

Chart 21 Rubber Chart 22 Rice US Cents/kg 300 Rubber US Dollar/cwt 16 14 12 10 Rice 100 8 Dec-17 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-17 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Chart 23 Hot Rolled Coil Rubber 165.50 157.90 +7.60 +4.8% Rice 10.58 10.43 +0.15 +1.4% HRC 718.00 720.00-2.00-0.3% 8

Chart 25 Chicken Chart 26 Shrimp 60 300 (Baht/kg) 55 50 45 40 35 Yearly Average (Baht/kg) 280 260 240 220 180 Yearly Average 30 160 25 140 20 120 15 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 100 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Source: CPF Source: CPF Chicken (Monthly)* Shrimp (Monthly)* 33.00 33.00 0 0.0% 180.00 180.00 0 0.0% *(Latest: Dec. 2018) 9

Corporate Governance Report Rating Disclaimer : ก กกก (IOD) #$%กกก&'กก (Corporate Governance) 34 5กก67ก89กกกก:ก;<'96:ก;< 7ก IOD 5ก'99ก=&93#6:ก;<':9> '96:ก;<? (MAI) 3%3ก 6B89 '95=&3% &=C%=D= 4 กD5ก#C CEก 7=5ก9กF6 '9=3ก#G==&E#;$%ก9 ก5 ก 8 3%กF#กกก&'กก934 4 กD3%'=E: ก :$$%=&3%ก3%=3ก3%' 434 :ก;< 33634 ก =$ 6 :$D&ก6= = กก'6# Anti-corruption Progress Indicators 3%=7ก'F6EกG#ก66=C6 (Thai CAC) กก '5 2 กC $ ก"#$%&'"()*$+",-( CAC./ก"./01 CAC Disclaimer : ก ก9G3G34$:=กLกก3ก3%=กกC6<G (Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators) 93#6:ก;<':9>3%73%ก3%=SD%3ก 7 ก89กกกก:ก;<'96:ก;<34 5กก67'96' ;T%$: 93 7 ก9ก 3%ก3%=>=&3%=ก9363%93=9C #''=&;$%ก9 Anti-Corruption SD%===&ก''ก=&9U (' 56-1) 9U (' 56-2) :$#ก'9:$$%3%ก3%=934 '='6ก83 4 ก9กD 5ก#C3%ก3%=SD%5CEก 7=5ก9กF693#6 :ก;<':9> '9=#G==&E#;$%ก9 $%ก ก9ก5;3 ก9 8 3%กF# ก94 4 ก9D 3%'=E:ก :$$%=&3%ก3%=3ก3%' 434 :ก;< 33634 ก =$ 6 :$&ก6== ก9ก'6# บร ษ ทหล กทร พย ทร น ต จ าก ด, 179 อาคารบางกอก ซ ต ทาวเวอร ช น 25-26, 29 ถนนสาทรใต เขตสาทร กร งเทพฯ 10120 โทรศ พท 0-2088-9100 โทรสาร 0-2088-9399 รายงานฉบ บน จ ดท าข นโดยข อม ลเท าท ปรากฏและเช อว าเป นท น าเช อถ อได แต ไม ถ อเป นการย นย นความถ กต องและความสมบ รณ ของข อม ลน นๆ โดยบร ษ ทหล กทร พย ทร น ต จ าก ด ผ จ ดท าขอสงวนส ทธ 2ในการ เปล ยนแปลงความเห นหร อประมาณการณ ต างๆ ท ปรากฏในรายงานฉบ บน โดยไม ต องแจ งล วงหน า รายงานฉบ บน ม ว ตถ ประสงค เพ อใช ประกอบการต ดส นใจของน กลงท น โดยไม ได เป นการช น าหร อช กชวนให น กลงท นท าการซ อหร อขายหล กทร พย หร อตราสารทางการเง นใดๆ ท ปรากฏในรายงาน