2015 1 361005 30 Kuznets 1979 Rodrik 2008 Clark,1940 Lewis,1954 Chenery, 1986 Schultz 1956,1975 Dennison 1960 14JA790086 29
Nelson Phelps 1966 60 70 80 Lucas 1988 80 Romer 1990 Barro Lee,1993 Schultz 1996 Hrishikesh Surendra 2007 Mankim 1992 1993 2008 2000, 1982-1990 2005 1998 2008 1 Mankim 1992 Barro Lee,1993 Pritchett 1996 Benhabib Spiegel,1994 Romer 1990 Krueger,2001 2 Mankim 1992 30
AK L 1 1 1 KL, H L H L AK H L 1 2 1 0 0 2 A K H L L 3 y Ak 4 0 AK h k Ak h 5 t s 4 31
X lny A lnk in X 6 i.d.d X Barro,1997 2000 Macmahon 2000 Keller 2006 2009 T/ G/ f 6 lny 1lnk T G 2ln 3 4 5lnf 7 l h T G lny ln 1lnk 2ln 3 4 5lnf 6 l 8 GDP Keller 2006 10 3 T G lny it, 1 lnk it, 2ln it, 3 3 4 5 lnfit, it, it, 9 it, i 9 1 5 1 5 T G lny it, lnk it, 2 ( lnkit, lnhit, 3) 3 4 5 lnfit, it, 10 it, it, 32
1 1952-2010 1978 1952-1977 0.044 0.047 1980 1952-1978 33
1978 1.9 993.7 1.8 1 2013 123 56% 10% 1 2 60 2 MPS 1994 34
1991 1990 1978-1990 1991-2013 1978-2013 GDP GDP g K 0 I 0 /( g ) 1952-1978 1978 0.075 1978 1951 30 1952-1978 0.0312 1978 1978 7528.3 5696.8 12974.6 2 3 1992 1992 2012 12 35
GDP GDP GDP 1978-2008 GDP 1978-2013 GDP GDP GDP 30 1 2 1 1990-2013 0.4823*** 0.5412*** 0.5016*** 0.5124*** 0.0344 0.0518 0.0381 0.0557 0.2108*** -0.1237*** 0.2003*** 0.0672 0.2202*** 0.0461 0.0293 0.0588 0.2733*** 0.4387*** 0.2760*** 0.2818*** 0.0283 0.0567 0.02907 0.0459-0.0286*** -0.0087*** -0.0267*** -0.0060** 0.0019 0.0022 0.0021 0.0024-0.1290*** -0.0730*** -0.1713*** -0.0341** 0.0228 0.0158 0.0266 0.0132 0.0480*** -0.0106 0.0654*** 0.0093 0.0079 0.0078 0.0085 0.0067 36
1 R 2 0.9778 0.7478 0.0635 0.8469 D-W 0.0784 1.7211 0.9803 1.4928 1990-2013 GDP * ** *** 0.1,0.05 0.001 1 GDP GDP 2 1990-2013 0.1079*** 0.1786*** 0.1512*** 0.3043*** 0.0343 0.0647 0.0312 0.0539-0.0151 0.2374*** -0.0388 0.2284*** 0.0228 0.0234 0.0235 0.0196 0.5679*** 0.3593*** 0.5416*** 0.3222*** 0.0270 0.0502 0.0286 0.0419-0.0369*** -0.0210*** -0.0362*** -0.0146*** 0.0015 0.0023 0.0017 0.0025 0.0142-0.0558*** -0.0024-0.0265* 0.0162 0.0177 0.0180 0.0155 0.1051*** 0.0336*** 0.1317*** 0.0465*** 0.0067 0.0088 0.0079 0.0083 R 2 0.9659 0.7997 0.9670 0.8409 D-W 0.1739 1.3469 0.1389 1.3188 1990-2013 37
0.067 0.23 Romer 1990 0.21 Mankim 1992 0.28 3 3 0.065 0.228 Mankim Romer Weil 1992 0.282 Barro Lee 1993 0.021 Romer 1990 0.204 38
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