CMIP5 MIROC RCP m RCP 0.2m RCP km

1 1 2 1 1 980-8579 6-6 2 980-8579 6-6 E-mail: udo@irides.tohoku.ac.jp CMIP5MIROC520312050 2081210020 RCP8.50.3mRCP 0.2mRCP8.580180km 2 60130km 2 RCP Key Words : MIROC5, Bruun rule, beach erosion, sea level rise, climate change 1. 1) 1994 2) 20 3) IPCCSRES A1B 4221 4) 21 3) 21 20812100 39m 5) 5 1 SRES A1B IPCC5 RCPCMIP5 6)7)8) CMIP5 MIROC5 203120502081210020 2. CMIP54 I_239

RCP2.6 N A RCP4.5 N A M Indian S Pacific Atlantic M Indian S Pacific Atlantic RCP6.0 N A An RCP8.5 N A An M Indian S Pacific Atlantic M Indian S Pacific Atlantic An An -1MIROC5RCP2.6RCP4.5 RCP6.0RCP8.52081-2100 NASAnM [m] 9) RCPRepresentative Concentration PathwaysMIROC5 RCPIPCC5 2100 2.6 W/m 2 4.5 W/m 2 6.0 W/m 2 8.5 W/m 2 122.53.5 10) 4 RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0 RCP8.5 Yin 11) CMIP534 RCP2.621 0.1mRCP4.50.2mRCP8.50.3m MIROC5RCP2.6 0.19mRCP4.50.22mRCP6.0 0.23mRCP8.50.30mRCP2.6 CMIP3SRESCMIP5RCP SRES A2RCP8.5SRES A1BRCP6.0 SRES B1RCP4.5 7)10) CMIP3CMIP5 1)11) SRES A20.140.35mRCP8.50.230.41mSRES A1B0.130.32mRCP4.50.130.24mSRES B10.100.24mRCP2.60.100.19m CMIP5CMIP3 CMIP5 MIROC5 Yin 11) sea surface elevation global mean thermosteric sea level change 1.4 2560.5 1.4 224 156kmsea surface elevation global mean thermosteric sea level change 1981 200020312050 2081210020 RCP NA I_240

RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5-2MIROC5RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.52031-20502081-2100 [m] S An M RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP4.5 RCP6.0 7) RCP2.60.090.12m RCP4.50.080.11mRCP6.00.070.08m RCP8.50.080.10m RCP2.60.200.23mRCP4.50.21 0.24mRCP6.00.210.23mRCP8.50.28 0.31mRCP RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0 RCP8.5 7cm 21 42020 RCP8.521 4RCP6.02030 RCP2.62060RCP4.5 4 21 Bruun 12) 77 Bruun 13) 2)3)5)14)15) Dean 16) 17) Bruun Bruun 17) Bruun 2 2 3 h Ay (1) h A y A Dean 16) I_241

Bruun (1) y y* S h* B h (2) y h * y * S B h h * 2) Hallemeier 19) h 3 3 * 2.28H m 68. 5 H m g Tm (3) H m T m g 2) h * y * (1) h * B h 20) h 2 gt 3 8 5 8 0.125H b s B (4) H b T s H b 21) H s tan L s 0.2 0. 25 tan H L H H (5) b s B h 22 A 3) 5) s s -3 120 23) 35 80.125mm1mm 2 0.2mm0.6mm RCP ADean 16) 0.2mm0.100.6mm0.17 24 0.2mm0.0140.6mm0.11 NOWPHAS 18 3)5)24) 5 A 2 0.3m0.65m 2 I_242

3. (3) 0.2mm0.6mm h * B h y 0.3m (1)(5)h * B h y 26 h * 115m B h 0.35m (3) -1 (3)h * B h y0.3m (3) [mm] h * [m] B h [m] y [m] 0.2 0.43 0.32.0-10-3 0.6 0.43 0.42.5-4-1 0.2 418 0.32.0-37-17 0.6 418 0.42.5-16-7 h * B h y h * h * y4 (3) B h B h B h Ay * y 0.2mm0.6mm2 MIROC5RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0 RCP8.52031-20502081-2100 0.2mm0.6mm 0.2mm RCP2.6614mRCP4.5513mRCP6.0410m -40.2mmRCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.52031-20502081-2100 I_243

-50.6mmRCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.52031-20502081-2100-6RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5 RCP RCP2.6 0.3m RCP8.5 RCP8.50.280.31m cm RCP8.5512m RCP2.61228mRCP4.51229mRCP6.012 28mRCP8.51737m 0.6mmRCP2.62 6mRCP4.526mRCP6.024mRCP8.5 25mRCP2.6512m RCP4.5512mRCP6.0512mRCP8.57 16m 4RCP RCP2.6 RCP4.5RCP6.0 RCP8.51.4 0.2mm 0.6mm RCP2.655.0128.8km 2 RCP4.557.9135.6 km 2 RCP6.057.7135.1km 2 RCP8.577.5181.4km 2 RCP 0.2mm128.8 181.4km 2 0.6mm55.077.5km 2 RCP I_244

-20.3m0.65mMIROC54RCP [km 2 ] 0.2mm 0.6mm [km] RCP RCP 0.3m 0.65m 2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5 0.3m 0.65m 2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5 1441.3 44.0 95.4 31.2 34.3 32.9 44.4 18.8 40.8 13.4 14.7 14.1 19.0 241.7 6.9 15.0 5.0 5.5 5.2 7.0 2.9 6.4 2.1 2.3 2.2 3.0 128.7 4.0 8.8 2.9 3.1 3.0 4.0 1.7 3.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.7 38.1 1.2 2.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 69.1 1.7 3.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.7 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 95.8 2.5 5.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.5 1.0 2.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 71.3 1.9 4.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.8 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 106.3 2.9 6.3 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.8 1.2 2.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 137.3 2.6 5.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.5 1.1 2.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 105.3 4.6 10.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.5 2.0 4.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.9 68.7 1.4 3.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 235.5 8.6 18.7 6.4 6.7 6.5 8.7 3.7 8.1 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.8 52.7 1.8 3.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.8 0.8 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 139.9 3.0 6.5 2.2 2.3 2.2 3.0 1.3 2.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 70.7 3.5 7.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 3.4 1.5 3.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 209.2 5.8 12.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 5.5 2.5 5.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.4 104.8 2.9 6.4 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.8 1.3 2.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 169.4 5.1 11.0 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.9 2.2 4.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.1 96.5 2.7 5.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.7 1.2 2.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 44.5 1.4 2.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 9.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 115.1 2.7 5.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.6 1.2 2.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 85.9 2.4 5.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.0 2.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 108.0 3.0 6.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 3.1 1.3 2.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 220.4 4.7 10.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 4.6 2.0 4.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 89.8 1.6 3.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 41.0 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 86.6 2.4 5.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.0 2.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 154.2 5.4 11.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 5.2 2.3 5.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.3 176.7 3.5 7.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 3.4 1.5 3.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 143.0 2.5 5.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.4 1.1 2.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 125.3 2.9 6.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.9 1.2 2.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 11.8 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 80.0 1.7 3.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.7 0.7 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 131.1 4.1 8.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 4.0 1.8 3.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 508.2 14.3 31.0 10.7 10.8 10.9 14.9 6.1 13.3 4.6 4.6 4.7 6.4 26.9 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 192.8 5.0 10.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 5.0 2.1 4.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.1 533.3 15.5 33.6 11.5 11.4 12.3 15.7 6.6 14.3 4.9 4.8 5.2 6.7 6466.0 182.1 394.5 128.8 135.6 135.1 181.4 77.7 168.4 55.0 57.9 57.7 77.5 0.3m0.65mRCP-2-3 2) A tan Dean 16) 1991 Wiegel 23) 77 2) 1990 9,688 0.1 0.3m0.65m 2) 2) 3 y1.04x I_245

[km 2 ] 120 100 80 60 40 20 0-7 2 SLR0.3m SLR0.65m y=2.36x R²=0.95 y=1.47x R²=0.97 y=0.63x R²=0.97 y=1.01x R²=0.95 0 10 20 30 40 50 2) [ 2 ] -8 2 0.3m0.65m 0.2mm0.6mm R 2 0.73 0.3m 2) 0.61.5 2) 0.65m 2) 1.02.4 2) 2) 2) RCP 0.20.3m Bruun 4. MIROC5 2031205020812100 20 RCP4.5RCP6.0 RCP2.60.200.23mRCP4.50.210.24mRCP6.0 0.210.23mRCP8.50.280.31m RCP2.6 55.0128.8km 2 RCP4.557.9135.6 km 2 RCP6.0 57.7135.1km 2 RCP8.577.5181.4km 2 RCP8.51.4 RCP MIROC5 Bruun S-8-1(4) 1) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Climate Change 2007: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York., 2007. 2) 41 pp. 1161-1162. 1994 3) B2 67pp. 1196-12002011 I_246

4) G68I_279-I_2852012 5) 5 B268I_1246-I_12502012 6) Taylor, K.E., R.J. Stouffer, and G.A. Meehl: An Overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, 2012. 7) CMIP3 CMIP5 G68I_159-I_1692012 8) B2 68I_1256-I_12602012 9) Moss, R.H., et al.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747 756, 2010. 10) Knutti, R. and J. Sedláek: Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature climate change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1716, 2012. 11) Yin, J.: Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L17709, doi:10.1029/2012gl052947, 2012. 12) Bruun, P.: Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion, J. Waterways and Harbors Div.,ASCE, 88(WW1), pp. 117-130, 1962. 13) Cooper, J.A.G. and O.H. Pilkey: Sea level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule, Global and Planetary Change, 43, pp. 157-171, 2004. 14) FitzGerald, D. M., M. S. Fenster, B. A. Argow and I. V. Buynevich: Coastal impacts due to sea-level rise, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 36, pp. 601-647, 2008. 15) Ranasinghe, R. and M. J. F. Stive: Rising seas and retreating coastlines, Climatic Change, Vol. 97, pp. 465-468, 2009. 16) Dean, R. G.: Equilibrium Beach Profiles: Characteristics and Applications, Journal of Coastal Research, 7, pp. 53-84, 1991. 17) 40 pp.1046-10501993 18) Dean, R. G.: BEACH NOURISHMENT: THEORY AND PRACTICE, Advanced Series on Engineering, Vol. 18, pp. 32, 2002. 19) Hallermeier, R. J.: A profile zonation for seasonal sand beached from wave climate, Coastal Engineering, 4, pp. 253-277, 1980. 20) 30 pp. 254-2581983 21) 4 2 pp.179-1881983 22) 47 pp.681-6852000 23) pp. 204-2161998 24) Wiegel, R.L.: ographical Engineering, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 531 p., 1965. 25) B2 68I_1251-I_12552012 26) 442p1997 Future Projections of Beach Erosion in using Sea Level Change Data of the MIROC5 model Keiko UDO 1, Yuriko TAKEDA 1, Jun YOSHIDA 2 and Akira MANO 1 1 International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University 2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tohoku University This study estimates future beach erosion in due to sea level rise using the latest sea level change data of the MIROC5 model for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In the vicinity of, the sea level rise is estimated to be maximum of 0.3 m for RCP8.5, whereas it is estimated to be 0.2 m for the other RCPs. Then, the beach erosion in is estimated to be maximum of 80 180 km 2 for RCP8.5 and 60 130 km for the other RCPs. The beach erosion will be accelerated in future compared to near future for all RCPs. Uncertainties of the estimation due to input data of beach characteristics are evaluated. I_247