559 509 459 409 359 309 259 2008 10 30 14.31 20.60 295.61 300 1658.22 1719.81 5798.67 2012.50 080604 080826 300 1 2008.10.5 2, 2008.7.18 3 2008.7.14 (8621)61038287 zhangzj@gjzq.com.cn (8621)61038289 dongyaguang@gjzq.com.cn (8621)61038257 zhaoli@gjzq.com.cn 969 15A 200011 10 20773 / 7 53%DBI 2002 9 190 10 7-9 6 89 39%51% 10 300 10 200 2 50% 1-9 73% 1-9 14% 9 63% 08 10 24 87.9% 88% 5000 859 100% 1073 5.8 2 1-9 40% 1 2000 10 22 63.945 / 55% 60 19.67% 14% 101 08 此文档仅供农银汇理基金管理有限公司使用 1
20092010 0.9511.15 0.9121.073 08 1-9 18,389 3,153 41.89% 48.66% 08 20092010 8.585 10.861 1-9 43,120 17.5% 1,701 11.69% 09 2 0809 0.7310.721 2
... 5 DBI 2002... 5... 5... 5... 5... 6... 6... 6... 6... 7... 8... 8... 8 6... 8 10 200... 9 2 50%10 26... 10 1-9 73%10 86... 10 9 63%10 79... 10... 11... 11... 11... 11... 12... 13... 13... 14... 14 1/... 5 2/... 5 3/... 5 4/... 5 5BDI... 6 6BDTI... 6 3
7%... 6 8... 6 9... 7 10... 7 11... 7 12... 8 13... 8 14... 9 15... 9 16 6... 9 17:... 10 18... 10 19... 11 20... 11 23... 12 24... 12 25 5000... 12 26 2000 5000... 12 25... 13 26... 13 29/... 13 30/... 13 4
8 7 44410 / 10 20773 / 53% DBI 2002 BDI 5 11000 2000 10 10 2221 80% 06 10 23 1149 2002 9 23 BDTI10 17 1342 5 65153 / 9 31707 / 51%10 17 9629 / 6 57521 /9 44475 / 28% 8 41610 / 10 17 39877 / 08 1 113 /TEU 789 96.6291.8387.37 /TEU 1/ 2/ Clarkson 3/ 4/ Clarkson 5
5BDI 6BDTI 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1999 11 5 2000 5 5 2000 11 5 2001 5 5 2001 11 5 2002 5 5 2002 11 5 2003 5 5 2003 11 5 2004 5 5 2004 11 5 2005 5 5 2005 11 5 2006 5 5 2006 11 5 2007 5 5 2007 11 5 2008 5 5 Clarkson 89 190 9 965447 10 93.55147 9 VLCC 16210082.569 10 161988267 10 9 26002900 3500 6500 8000 56.567108 137 10 5566106134 7% 8 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Oct-81 Mar-83 Aug-84 Jan-86 Jun-87 Nov-88 Apr-90 Sep-91 Feb-93 Jul-94 Dec-95 May-97 Oct-98 Mar-00 Aug-01 Jan-03 Jun-04 Nov-05 Apr-07 Sep-08 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 Clarkson 6
9 10 Clarkson 1-9 15.95 1.77 07 19.81 2.03 1-9 23.85 2.65 07 23.87 2.65 1-9 1127 125 07 1035 115 9 20 62 11 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 20011 20016 200111 20024 20029 20032 20037 200312 20045 200410 20053 20058 20061 20066 200611 20074 20079 20082 20087 Clarkson 7
12 Clarkson 13 Clarkson 08 1-9 7550 11250 33%08 789 1649380 352 08 1-9 4938 3652 35%9 281 4 6 08 1-9 548 2696 80%07 1-9 299 08 1-9 60 9 6.3 02 8 8
14 Clarkson 15 Clarkson 16 6 Clarkson 10 200 9
08 1-9 14285 19238 26%789 22931406693 39%51% 10 300 2 50%10 26 08 1-9 5216 07 8049 35%789 1373623328 55% 47% 10 24 26 1-9 73%10 86 08 1-9 516 1919 73% 789 4415014 10 86 10 24 9 63%10 79 08 1-9 6441 7525 14% 789 618598 218 3.2% 63%10 79 10 24 17: 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 19961 19971 19981 19991 20001 20011 20021 20031 20041 20051 20061 20071 20081 Clarkson 18 Clarkson 10
08 10 24 87.9% 88% 10 81.8% 86.8% 90% 83% 50% 96.20% 93.7% 80.2% 93.1% 90% 89.4% 100% 77.8% 92.10% 5.8 19 20 RIG 437 06 9 6 94000 802 100% 5000 859 100% 1073 40 100% 5.8 2 11
21 22 ODS 23 5000 24 20005000 ODS 08 8910 655658658 5 5 22 9 2.2 1-9 16 28 40% 1 5 17378 / 9 80532 / 1 20541 / 2000 9 16000 / 08 19 12697 / 2000 9 27224 / 17886 / 12
25 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 26 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1000% 800% 600% 400% 200% 0% -200% Clarkson 27/ 28/ Clarkson 08 1-9 17,205 1,783 18.47% 15.48% 0.54 6,570 5,144 5,490 6.7% 19.67% 1-9 14.57% 15.77% 14.8% 1-9 101 115% 154% 138% 2 2009 2010 2009 2010 0.9511.15 0.9121.073 13
10 28 7.23 0809PE 9.527.93 PB 1.531.42 08 1-9 18,389 3,153 41.89%48.66% 4.759 1-9 41.89% 40.6% 1-9 23.07% 29.72% 20.86% 21.56% 20 7 20 7200 9 6200 / 25% -666 08 20092010 2008-2010 4,5625,688 7,196 EPS 6.8868.585 10.861 10 28 0809 PE 7.055.65 1-9 43,120 17.5% 1,701 11.69% 150.47 TEU 6.89% 9.53 16.15% 2.71% 07 08 0.6% 09 12.9%2010 2% 12%09 15% 2010 2 1-9 10.48% 10.1% 10% 0809 52,22147,241 1,9461,919 0.7310.721 14
612 20% 612 10%20% 612-10%10% 612 10%20% 612 20% 36 5% 36-5%5% 36 5% 15