2011 9 20 2006 2010 46.44% 5 5 12 5 2005 2011 1.55 3300 / 1800-2100 / 2500 / 2011-2013 EPS 0.83 1.10 1.24 PE 15.1 11.4 10.1 2011 PE 31 2012 PE 21 ( ) (%) ( ) (%) EPS ( ) ( ) 2010 805,371 27% 15,199 26% 0.64 19.55 2011E 928,276 15% 19,752 30% 0.83 15.07 2012E 1,070,774 15% 26,679 35% 1.10 11.37 2013E 1,181,908 10% 30,231 13% 1.24 10.09 35% 25% 15% 5% -4% -14% -24% 10-9-7 10-12-7 11-3-8 11-6-7 11-9-6 2011/9/19 12.51 17.10 10.92 13.16 2011Q2 23,800 23,800 0.36 4.10-0.10 3.05 : S0550511070002 TEL: (8621)6336 7000-319 FAX: (8621)6337 3209 Email: chenbh@nesc.cn : 45 20 : 200002
... 3... 3... 3... 4... 7... 10...11...11... 12 CTP PS... 12... 13... 15 1... 3 2... 3 3... 4 4... 4 52006 2010 46.4%... 4 6 16%... 4 7... 5 8 PS/CTP... 6 9 PS/CTP...7 10... 8 11...8 12... 10 13 1998 35%...11 14 2005 55%...11 15 PS/CTP 2013 46... 13 1... 3 2 1+X... 6 3... 7 4...12 5... 14 6... 14 7... 15 2
PS/CTP PS/CTP 55% 1 2 66% 30 14% 10% 69% 24% 2007 2008 2009 16% 64% 2006 2010 46.44% 2006 4 1.55 2010 7 5 2006 3
10% 2010 16% 3 4 WIND WIND 5 2006-2010 46.4% 6 16% WIND WIND 1.5 12 2 2.5 2.5 4
5 7 2. 12 30 1000-1800 2500 1 5 4 40 / 5 200 / 6 2010 3 3 4 2010 3 2000 2.5 5 7 68% 3 3 6 1 3. PS PS PS PS 200-650mm 500 5
1 1 2 6 1+0 1+1 1+3 /mm 4 7 3 5 3 4 2 4 2 6 7 80 PS 8 PS/CTP WIND PS PS PS/CTP 1+4 PS/CTP 3,800-4200 / 1900-3000 / PS /CTP 6
1850mm 7 1 2 1700 1 2 9 PS/CTP / PS/CTP 1. 3 / 200-400 300-500 600-800 2005 2009 6% 24% 1.55 10-20% 9000-11000 / 3300-3800 / 7
10 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009/1H 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% WIND 11 2. 50 1 3 / 3000 / 2010 4000-5000 8
3. 2000 5000-6000 / 1800-2100 / 4 6000-7000 / 2300-2700 / 5. PS/CTP PS CTP CTP PS CTP PS 60-70% CTP CTP 70-80% PS 5000 / 2000 / 2010 5.2 PS/CTP PS/CTP PS 6. 55% 45% 3000-4000 / 9
1 2 + 4/6-3/7 + 10% 1 1000 12 WIND 3-5 10
2010 2010 48% 85% 55% 2012 2013 50% 2015 53%2020 57% 2006 27 2020 35 13 1998 35% 14 2005 55% PVC 1998 35% 2005 55% 9 7 GDP 16% 2020 2005 GDP 40%-45% 25% 20%~50% 11
4 200-400 /M2 300-500 /M2 400 99 4 2295 3 2~3 3 1.5 2.2 3 6 5000 6000 2010 4 2011 1000 3000 60 15% 55% 8 1000 39.6 100 6000 7000-8000 2 15 15 20 CTP PS 12
2002 2008 23.1% PS CTP CTP CTP PS CTP CTP CTP CTP PS CTP PS PS 2002 2008 18.2% CTP 2004 2008 141.3% 2009 PS 2.13 2008 2.12 0.47% CTP 0.75 2008 0.58 29.31% CTP 15% CTP 2010-2013 CTP 33.9% 2013 PS /CTP 57500 CTP 18000 31.3% 13.3 2013 PS/CTP 46 15.6% CTP 15 PS/CTP 2013 46 WIND 1 PS/CTP 2 PS/CTP 5 2011 2012 2012 3 2011-2013 2011 21.5% 13
5 2011 2012 2013 PS/CTP 4600.00 4600.00 4600.00 / 10000.00 10000.00 10000.00 11000.00 11000.00 11000.00 6700.00 6700.00 6700.00 6000.00 6400.00 6700.00 PS/CTP 55000.00 55000.00 55000.00 32000.00 40000.00 43000.00 4500.00 5000.00 5200.00 34000.00 48000.00 52000.00 8000.00 20000.00 30000.00 6 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 805,370.74 973614 1118183 1233822 785,994.67 948104 1084322 1195673 773,552.12 935934 1070345 1180250 579.83 584.17 670.91 740.29 3,680.93 4040.50 4640.46 5120.36 7,490.98 5549.60 6373.65 7032.78 564.88 1703.82 1956.82 2159.19 125.93 292.08 335.46 370.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19,376.07 25509.72 33861.13 38148.79 428.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 374.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 19,429.68 25509.72 33861.13 38148.79 3,882.10 5484.59 7280.14 8201.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15,547.59 20025.13 26580.98 29946.80 349.02 380.48 451.88 509.10 15,198.57 19644.65 26129.11 29437.70 ( ) ( ) 0.64 0.83 1.10 1.24 ( ) ( ) 0.64 0.83 1.10 1.24 14
2011-2013 EPS 0.83 1.10 1.24 29% 33% 13% 2011 9 19 12.51 PE 15.1 11.4 10.1 2011 PE 31 2012 PE 21 7 EPS PE 110913 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E 002333.SZ 11.33 0.33 0.41 34.33 27.63 002160.SZ 12.29 0.24 0.38 51.21 32.34 002379.SZ 12.55 0.29 0.56 43.28 22.41 002501.sz 21.35 0.80 1.14 26.69 18.73 002540.sz 19.94 0.69 1.07 28.90 18.64 600219.SH 7.81 0.58 0.75 13.47 10.41 600673.SH 13.14 0.55 0.74 23.89 17.76 600888.SH 22.81 0.87 1.32 26.22 17.28 31.00 20.65 002082.sz 12.51 0.83 1.10 15.07 11.37 1 2 3 5 4 15
: 6 12 6 12 6 12 : 6 12 15% 6 12 5 15% 6 12 ±5% 6 12 5% 16