2014 5 8 () 100% 50% 0% 50% May 13 Sep 13 Jan 14 May 300 (SDW) APPAPP 86%WEB14% IT S1060513060002 010-59730720 FUJIAN296@pingan.com.cn IT IT SaaS 620172000 ebayfacebook ebay Facebook 2014-05-07 EPS/ PE 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 300248 20.90 0.28 0.50 0.76 1.11 74.6 41.8 27.5 18.8 600446 24.02 0.42 0.64 1.00 1.56 57.2 37.5 24.0 15.4 002396 22.71 0.68 0.89 1.19 1.56 33.4 25.5 19.1 14.6 002410 31.95 0.91 1.20 1.62 2.16 35.1 26.6 19.7 14.8 600588 13.00 0.56 0.62 0.81 1.04 23.2 21.0 16.0 12.5 300170 21.91 0.55 0.73 0.95 1.23 39.8 30.0 23.1 17.8
... 6 1.1... 6 1.2APP... 7... 9 2.1... 10 2.2 IT... 11... 12 3.1 saas... 13 3.2 30%... 15 3.3... 16... 18 4.1... 18 4.2... 20 4.3... 21 4.4... 22 4.5... 24 4.6... 25 4.7... 26... 28 5.1... 29 5.2eBay... 32 5.3Facebook... 35 A... 37 6.1... 37 6.2 IT... 38 6.3 K... 39 6.4... 41 6.5... 43 6.6 ERP IT... 44... 45 2 / 46
1... 6 2 45.8%... 7 3 5... 8 4 APP 80%... 8 5... 8 6 App store 100... 9 7 IT... 9 8... 10 9 IT... 11 10... 12 11... 12 12 Iaas,Paas, Saas... 13 13 SaaS... 14 14 SaaS %... 15 15... 15 16 30%... 16 17... 17 18... 18 19... 19 20... 20 21... 20 22google glass... 20 23... 21 24... 21 25... 22 26... 23 27... 24 28... 25 3 / 46
29... 25 30... 26 31... 27 32... 27 33... 28 34... 28 35... 29 36AltaVista... 29 37... 30 38Google... 31 39 Googl 80%... 31 40Google... 32 41eBay... 33 42 ebay 80%... 34 43eBay... 34 44Facebook... 35 45Facebook... 36 46Facebook... 36 47... 37 48... 37 49... 37 50... 39 51... 40 52 K... 40 53... 41 54... 42 55... 42 56... 43 57UAP... 44 4 / 46
58... 44 59... 45 5 / 46
1.1 1 6 / 46
1.2APP 6.3852013126.18 535845.8%20123.7 201312520128009 201274.5%81.0% 245.8% 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 16.0% 10.5% 8.5% 21000 11100 13700 45.8% 42.1% 38.3% 34.3% 28.9% 22.6% 61758 56400 51310 45700 38400 29800 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% CNNIC 7 / 46
35 CNNIC APPAPPWEB 2013APP80%2014 86%32% 7% 4APP80% 5 FLURRY FLURRY 8 / 46
appapp2013 9App store95100 30 6App store100 IT 7IT CNNIC 9 / 46
2.1 IT 8 CNNIC ITITIT IT ITIT IT IT ITIT 10 / 46
9IT CNNIC 2.2 IT IT IT IT IT IT ITIT 11 / 46
10 CNNIC VMware CTO Steve Herrod IT IT 11 36Kr 12 / 46
3.1 saas ITIaas, Paas, SaasIaas Paas- Saas - Saas 12Iaas,Paas, Saas IaaS SaaS ()SaaS 13 / 46
SaaS 2012SaaS SaaS Forrester 2013SaaS3599201225% 2014 4575 13SaaS Forrester1=6.1 SaaS2013 SaaSOACRM SaaS4G SaaS+ SaaS 14 / 46
14SaaS% 3.2 30% 15 15 / 46
2009-201229.7%2012 365038.6% 2009-2012 201236507.8%GDP 20134896 30% 1630% 3.3 1EB(10GB1000PB)1.88DVD 16 / 46
17 CNNIC ; ; SDN SDN ( ) -SDN- 17 / 46
2014 1024.864.7% 18 Wikibon1=6.1 4.1 GPS 18 / 46
19 CNNIC 87%71% 54% 19 / 46
20 54% 71% 87% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Juniper Research iwatchgoogle glass 21 12google glass 4.2 2010 10%15%201028 10 20103 20 / 46
IT 23 24 4.3 21 / 46
App 25 4.4 IT IT 22 / 46
100 70~100 ECU 26 4G -XX 23 / 46
27 4.5 80% 1/3. 2004 143201272322.5% 2013839.719.9% 24 / 46
28 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 21.8% 18.5% 19.4% 19.9% 20.6% 18.9% 17.7% 17.1% 1437.2 1191.7 998 839.7 700.6 352.2 414.6 491.1 575 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 40%60% 40% 4.6 29 201411525001535% 25 / 46
4900 30 2014211 201310 QQ O2O 102000 4.7 PDAPC PC 26 / 46
31 20134.8 3000 32 27 / 46
33 Facebook 34 ++ 28 / 46
Facebook 35 5.1 DEC AltaVista 36AltaVista Google PageRank Google Google 29 / 46
Google AltaVista Google Google Google GoogleGoogle Google 37 Google GoogleGoogle Google GoogleGoogle GoogleGoogle 30 / 46
38Google GoogleGoogle Google GoogleGoogle GoogleGoogle Google80%2013Google 505.4784.49% 39Googl80% Google 31 / 46
Google 201211121147 65.2% 40Google ComScore Google 5.2eBay ebayebay ebay ebayebay 32 / 46
41eBay ebay ebay ebay 80% ebay PayPal ebay ebayebay ebay ebay80%2012 ebay85.% 33 / 46
42eBay80% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2.4% 2.9% 2.7% 97.6% 97.1% 97.3% 8.6% 10.3% 11.5% 12.0% 12.0% 14.1% 14.2% 91.4% 89.7% 88.5% 88.0% 88.0% 85.9% 85.8% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ebayebay ebay ebay 43eBay 34 / 46
5.3Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook Facebook2010Facebook 55 ++ Facebook 44Facebook Facebook FacebookFacebook Facebook10%Zynga 90%FacebookQQ Facebook 201210Facebook10 35 / 46
Facebook 45Facebook CNET 46Facebook 36 / 46
A 6.1 640260 47 综合平台系统 数字化校园及一卡通 手机一卡通省级运营平台 城市一卡通综合管理平台 金融 IC 卡行业应用审计运营管理 能源监控管理平台 短信服务省市运维 应用功能子系统 身份识别 电子支付 手机支付 能源计控 智能终端 电子支付产品 身份识别产品 智能水电产品 射频识别产品 20132.21 5.60% 201349% 48 49 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 6615 32% 8741 60.2% 14001 18427 31.6% 20944 22117 13.7% 5.6% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0% 4G 37 / 46
O2O NFC NFC IC 2012 201119.2%22.54% 6.2 IT 19988 201320.327.89% 1.0953.59% 2020 38 / 46
50 IT IT300-500 IT 6.3K MODEMADSL 70% (EPON) (ONU) TIBroadcom Motorola MicrosoftAMDIntelSiemensMarvellBenq 201332.76 17.54%2.396.91% 39 / 46
51 KKTV40% APPK020 K200K KTVK 52K 40 / 46
6.4 201313.93 37.43%4.8858.2% 2012 53 70 10 41 / 46
54 B2B 55 42 / 46
6.5 IT 50060% 201343.62012 3.01%5.4844.34% 56 Wind UAPUAP Unified Application Platform UAP CSPCSP ISV CSP CSP 43 / 46
57UAP 6.6 ERP IT IT ERP 2013 8.39 19.4% 1.49 23.9% 58 Wind 44 / 46
ERP ERP ERP ERP ERP ERP ERP IT 59 1 2 45 / 46
6 300 20% 6 300 10% 20% 6 300 10% 6 300 10% 6 300 5% 6 300 5% 6 300 5% 2014 4008866338 4036 16 518048 075582449257 1333 25 200120 02133830395 23 6 601 100031