投资评级 : 增持 柴油车尾气催化剂市场将 驱动业绩加速增长 贵研铂业深度报告 证券研究报告 2013 年 12 月 19 日姓名 : 桑永亮 ( 分析师 ) 邮件 :sangyongliang@gtjas.com 电话 :021-38676052 证书编号 :S0880511010034 姓名 : 刘华峰 ( 研究助理 ) 邮件 :liuhuafeng@gtjas.com 电话 : 021-38674752 证书编号 :S0880113090016
目录 2 +
3 2014 EPS 26% 46%
4 3 1 + + 2
: 5 2013-2015 EPS 0.32/0.40/0.47 22.418% PM2.5 PM2.5 + + +
6 2013-2015 EPS 0.32/0.40/0.47 22.418% 2014-2015 30% 70% 20% 2014
目录 7 +
8 1.1 PM2.5 PM2.5 30% 19.3% VS 78.4% 5% VS 61% PM2.5 30% 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% PM2.5 % 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0.2 11.2 2.9 5 0.7 9 9 0.6 8.5 8.6 21.1 25.9 CO HC 0.2 4.5 14.2 48.6 NOx 0.2 8.6 8.6 61 PM
9 1.2 2011.01 >2012.01 >2013.07 >2014.07 >? VS VS + 2012 2005/5/30 2008 1 1 2011 1 1 ( III IV V ) 2013 1 1 2005 4 2008 7 1 ( III IV ) 2011 7 1 2008/6/27 2008 2010/10/21 2012 1 1 1 2012/1/10 2 2013/7/1 2014 7
10 1.3 2013 9 23 / 290 /370 170 /160 2012 1 2013 7 20% 2013 290 370 10 1 2014 ( ) 3 2017 170 160
11 1.4 1500 1500 2013-2015 62/412/1058 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 125,998 87,539 82,894 84,156 88,364 88,364 1.5 18.9 13.1 12.4 12.6 13.3 13.3 55,542 60,912 57,968 45,494 40,945 40,945 7 38.9 42.6 40.6 31.8 28.7 28.7 51,360 58,487 58,407 50,168 45,151 45,151 2.5 12.8 14.6 14.6 12.5 11.3 11.3 131,220 152,817 168,213 116,027 92,822 92,822 1.5 19.7 22.9 25.2 17.4 13.9 13.9 245,581 269,707 201,089 239,132 275,002 302,502 10 245.6 269.7 201.1 239.1 275.0 302.5 178,313 188,041 180,718 182,151 191,259 200,822 4.5 80.2 84.6 81.3 82.0 86.1 90.4 1,602,562 1,545,466 1,516,343 1,755,562 1,931,118 2,124,230 3 480.8 463.6 454.9 526.7 579.3 637.3 147,527 113,755 103,987 118,273 133,648 151,023 1.2 17.7 13.7 12.5 14.2 16.0 18.1 1,080,632 914,205 722,114 891,811 1,007,746 1,138,753 3.6 389.0 329.1 260.0 321.1 362.8 410.0 1,285 1,241 1,090 1,245 1,373 1,512-3.4% -12.1% 14.2% 10.3% 10.1% 5.0% 30.0% 70.0% 62.2 411.9 1,058.4 WIND
目录 12 +
13 + 2.1 + + + + + 1938
14 + 2.1 170 150 130 0 17% 190 110 90 70 50 研发人员占比 ( 右 ) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 个 / 万升 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 80 厂商个数 国 I 5 国 IV 50 市场容量 500 万升 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2003 贵研铂业汽车尾气催化剂销量同比 ( 右 ) 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 WIND WIND
15 + 2.1 70% 60% 32% 90% 0% 80% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 6% 整体 17% 自主品牌 主要车型市场占有率 70% 长安集团 60% 东南汽车 35% 奇瑞汽车 25% 比亚迪 12% 10% 上汽通用 标致 韩系, 10.1% 美系, 13.7% 德系, 21.6% 其他, 3.4% 自主, 31.8% 日系, 19.4% WIND 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% WIND
2.2 VS 16 + 其他, 7% 贵研铂业, 6% 威孚环保, 14% 3 优美科, 24% 巴斯夫, 25% 庄信万丰, 24% CR3 80% CR5 85% 其他, 20% 通用, 32% 克莱斯勒, 23% 福特, 26% 铃木, 4.8% 马自达, 4.9% 本田, 14.9% 其他, 15.2% 日产, 17.1% 丰田, 43.1% WIND
目录 17 +
18 3.1 2014-2015160 /190 22%/10%/8%; 2013-20152.64%/3.69%/4.29% EPS 0.32/0.40/0.47; CAGR 2011-2013 81% 2014-2015 5% 113%/26%/18%, 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 150.0 150.0 128.0 128.0 128.0 248.0 300.0 63.2 103.5 118.6 124.7 135.0 160.0 190.0 221.8 270.3 371.2 340.0 350.0 310.0 310.0 140.2 279.9 440.1 423.9 472.5 496.0 589.0 23.56% 22.72% 14.68% 17.65% 16.57% 17.74% 17.74% 91,642.9 110,485.9 231,948.0 259,349.3 300,072.1 315,075.7 330,139.5 6.5 9.5 8.9 8.7 8.9 9.7 10.0 594.1 1,051.1 2,056.2 2,260.2 2,665.6 3,054.2 3,306.2 8.92% 6.62% 5.78% 5.24% 4.30% 4.56% 5.13% 296.2 532.9 601.5 1,518.6 1,974.2 2,072.9 2,176.6 2.25% 1.44% 2.42% 0.92% 0.41% 0.87% 0.83% 1,030.5 1,863.9 3,097.8 4,202.8 5,112.3 5,623.1 6,071.8 -- 80.9% 66.2% 35.7% 21.6% 10.0% 8.0% 92.7 140.9 197.9 207.2 200.8 245.4 292.1 9.00% 7.56% 6.39% 4.93% 3.93% 4.36% 4.81% 9.1 50.4 37.2 30.0 63.8 80.2 94.6 EPS 0.04 0.25 0.18 0.15 0.32 0.40 0.47 -- 525.00% -28.00% -16.67% 113.00% 26.00% 18.00% WIND 2013-2015
19 3.1 20%/30%/40%; 10-20% 37 / 3% 20% -3% 0% 3% 18% 10.9 11.3 11.7 20% 12.1 12.5 13.0 22% 13.3 13.8 14.3 30% -3% 0% 3% 18% 16.3 16.9 17.5 20% 18.1 18.8 19.5 22% 19.9 20.6 21.4 40% 18% 21.7 22.5 23.3 20% 24.1 25.0 25.9 22% 26.5 27.5 28.5-15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 10% 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.1 12% 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.4 14% 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16% 12.2 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.8 18% 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.4 20.0 20% 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.3 22% 16.8 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.2 22.9 23.7 24.5 24% 18.3 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.4 24.2 25.0 25.9 26.7 26% 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.2 27.1 28.0 28.9 28% 21.4 22.4 23.3 24.3 25.3 26.3 27.3 28.2 29.2 30.2 31.2 30% 22.9 24.0 25.0 26.1 27.1 28.1 29.2 30.2 31.3 32.3 33.4
20 3.1 2014-2015 30%/70% 2.9%/6.3%10%/8% 13%/11% 20% EPS22.6%/44.5% 26%/18% 45 2014-2015 37/34 46%/39% 2013E 2014E 2015E 1,245 1,373 1,512 5.00% 30.00% 70.00% 62 412 1,058 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 12.4 82.4 211.7 200 200 180 24.8 164.8 381.0 45 37 34 5.6 30.5 72.0 3.50% 3.60% 4.00% 4.7 24.6 56.7 T=15%) 4.0 20.9 48.2 3.6 18.8 43.4 EPS / 0.02 0.09 0.21 5,112.3 5,623.1 6,071.8 200.8 245.4 292.1 EPS / 0.32 0.40 0.47 % 0.49% 2.93% 6.28% EPS / 5.42% 22.61% 44.45% 2014-2015
21 3.2 2013-2015 EPS 0.32/0.40/0.47 131%/26%/18% 56 P/E 22.4 18% PE(TTM) EPS PE 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E 000007.SZ 13.43 94.20 0.21 0.24 0.30 63.95 55.96 44.77 000697.SZ 10.00 82.74 0.13 0.15 0.17 76.92 64.94 58.82 600432.SH 8.27 27.06 (0.02) 0.05 0.12 (413.50) 165.40 68.92 000831.SZ 23.77 38.39 0.14 0.25 0.34 174.01 93.62 70.60 000960.SZ 11.54 (12.39) (0.55) 0.16 0.32 (21.09) 70.84 35.72 000975.SZ 8.25 28.76 0.56 0.56 0.61 14.70 14.61 13.56 002167.SZ 11.22 (187.16) 0.03 0.32 0.43 421.80 35.46 25.80 002378.SZ 18.32 67.44 0.28 0.32 0.43 64.78 57.05 42.29 002428.SZ 13.65 58.25 0.23 0.28 0.38 59.04 48.46 36.39 002460.SZ 23.40 45.19 0.49 0.67 0.84 47.45 34.73 27.90 002466.SZ 32.56 514.06 0.06 0.18 0.23 566.26 185.00 140.77 600111.SH 25.09 53.19 0.69 0.83 1.03 36.49 30.35 24.37 600259.SH 42.70 (875.35) 0.32 0.68 0.88 131.47 62.65 48.41 600392.SH 22.60 21.72 0.40 0.57 0.88 55.97 39.75 25.78 600456.SH 13.27 947.82 0.05 0.07 0.20 292.94 190.39 65.63 600549.SH 26.25 64.78 0.60 0.76 1.03 43.93 34.47 25.56 601958.SH 7.57 88.62 0.08 0.08 0.10 100.53 99.74 77.56 603399.SH 11.69 49.79 0.29 0.41 0.46 40.97 28.24 25.66 603993.SH 6.71 32.55 0.20 0.25 0.32 33.14 27.27 20.96 13.43 49.79 0.21 0.28 0.38 59.04 55.96 36.39 600459.SH 19.05 89.58 0.33 0.40 0.47 60.24 47.63 40.53 WIND
22 3.3 % 贸易占收入比毛利率水平 % 40 35 30 15 1104*1/3 10 5 1104 662+325+116 2012 1324.00 24000.00 2013 13% 45% 2013 1496.12 10728.00 82% 81% 1226.82 8732.59 / 1.50 0.23 1840.23 2017.23 23% 36% 77% 662.48 5% 80.00 1.50 325.44 116.49 WIND 25 20 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013H 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
诚信亲和专业创新 证券研究报告 2013 年 12 月 19 日姓名 : 桑永亮 ( 分析师 ) 邮件 :sangyongliang@gtjas.com 电话 :021-38676052 证书编号 :S0880511010034 姓名 : 刘华峰 ( 研究助理 ) 邮件 :liuhuafeng@gtjas.com 电话 : 021-38674752 证书编号 :S0880113090016