11 2 20121 ( ) ChinaEconomicQuarterly Vol.11,No.2 January,2012 RobertC.Feenstra * 2005 50%, 2013 2012, IF 2016,, (PWT) 20114, (IF), 2016, 2011 11.3 2016 18.7 ;, 15 18.3 1,2016, 18%, 17.7% 2, 2016 3, : 4, ( IF) :,2013, 5, ( ) 2005,,, 2005 13768, ( 2005 41674 ), 2005 (:8 1 ), 1721 * (UniversityofCalifornia,Davis) (NBER) 2011421 2011 1, :htp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/ weodata/index.aspx (2011103 ) 2 htp://www.babypips.com/blogs/piponomics/china-to-overtake-us-by-2016-imf.html 3 htp://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/04/25/imf-predicts-chinese-economy-surpass-2016/ 4 htp://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-bombshel-age-of-america-about-to-end-2011-04-25 5 ArvindSubramanian 2010 htp://www.pie.com/realtime/p=1935
368 ( ) 11 : 4% (=1721/41674) : 1 8, 1721, ( ),, (thepenn WorldTable, PWT), PWT PWT PWT (Summersand Heston,1991) 2010,PWT (htp://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/) 15 126 2011, 2011 Johnson,Larson,PapageorgiouandSubramanian (2009), : 2/3 PWT, PWT, IF, ( Johnsonetal.,2009, 1, 1) :, IF PWT, IF PWT, PWT,,,, (theinternationalcomparisonprogram, ICP),,,PWT (PurchasingPowerParity,PPP),
2 RobertC.Feenstra: 369 PPP,PWT,,2005 PPP 2.5 1, 8 1 2005 5500 (=13768/2.5), 1721,, ( ) ICP, ICP 1970 10, 2005 146 (,2007), 2011 180,ICP PWT,, ICP,, PWT ICP (regionalfixity) ICP, ICP (, Eurostat;,ESCAP; ),, ICP, ICP, ICP 2005, 2005 40%Deatonand Hes- ten (2010,3) : (2007) 2007 (WDI), 2005 6757 3452 2005ICP 2008 WDI, (2008a,2008b) 4088 2222, 1721 797,,
370 ( ) 11 Alan Heston,IrvingKravisRobertsSummers20 80 ICP, ICP,PWT,,PWT ICP PWT, ( PWT 2005 ),PWT,,, PWT,,, Alan Heston, PWT, Angus addison,, arceltimmer( InklaarandTimmer, 2009; OahonyandTimmer,2009) 2004,Heston,Tim- mer BertBalk (2008),ErwinDiewert(2010a,2010b),An- gusdeaton (2010), PeterNeary (2004) 2010,,2013 PWT 8,PWT, Feenstra,InklaarandTimmer(2012), PWT 2005, ICP 6 2005ICP, ICP 2005 ICP,, (ADB)2007 :ICP 11 2007,, 6 2011 ICP 2013
2 RobertC.Feenstra: 371 (2008a) 2005 4088, ICP :,, PWT, ICP 201163 PWT7.0 7,, 1 2 ICP, 2005 4736 ;, 5218, 4088 ICP : 2,2005ICP 20%, 4736 5218, 10% Feenstraetal. (2011) 2005 ICP, 12, 5 (,,,, ), 4 (,, ), 3,,Feenstraetal. (2011) :, 2005 9%21%,,, PWT7.0,,,,,, :, ;, 7 htp://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/
372 ( ) 11 Feenstraetal.(2009), () PWT Geary-Khamis(GK) (,,), ICP, =1,,C pi ( qi e )π i e PPP e : C πi e = (pi / PPP e) qi =1 PPP e = piqi C, qi,,, (1) =1 π e, iqi =1,,C, (2) (2) PPP,, : πiqi e = piqi / PPP e, =1,,C. (3) PWT (2) : R e (Nominal )/PPP e =πiqi e + (X - )/PPP. e (4) Nominal = piqi+ (X - ), X, (2) (3) PPP e,, (4) PPP e, e e Feenstraetal.(2009), Feenstra,InklaarandTimmer(2012) 2005ICP 1,, R e, 41553
2 RobertC.Feenstra: 373, R e 2005, GK R e R e 38592, 1 R e 5097, 4088 25% 1,2005 ( ) R e R o R e R o (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 51858 38592 37640 1.248 0.929 0.952 41553 41553 39550 1.000 1.000 1.000 37190 32401 30640 0.895 0.780 0.775 31414 33626 31065 0.756 0.809 0.785 30375 33975 32159 0.731 0.818 0.813 12341 24044 26774 0.297 0.579 0.677 3158 7374 8240 0.076 0.177 0.208 956 5097 5433 0.023 0.123 0.137 582 2423 2479 0.014 0.058 0.063 : 5543 5862 0.133 0.148 (%) 8.8 7.9 8.8 7.9 :Feenstra,InklaarandTimmer(2012) :1,2 3,4 6 1,, Feenstraetal.(2011), 5543, 35% 5097 5543 9%, 1 2, PWT Feenstraetal. (2011) 20%, Feenstraetal. (2011) PWT, (2008a), PWT, 2005 5097, 5543 4088 25% 35%,, PWT, (real o ),
374 ( ) 11 () o, i=+ 1,,+N ( ),, Diewertand orrison(1986) Kohli(2004), : ( qi 0 pi >0,,, ); ( x i 0 pi>0,i=+1,,+n); x ( m i 0 pi>0,i=+1,,+n). m p x p m, p x +s p m +t, s,t πi,,, πi x,π m, i i=+1,,+n, : π x i π m i C πi o = (pi / PPP o) qi =1 C = =1 C = =1 PPP o = C, qi,,, (5) =1 C (p x/ i PPP o) x i x i, i= +1,, +N, (6) =1 C (p m/ i PPP o) m i m i, i= +1,, +N, (7) =1 Nominal +N π o iqi + i=+1 (π x ix i -π m im i ), =1,,C. (8) (1)(2) GK, (5) (8) GK,, o, π o i,π i x π m : i +N R o πiqi o + (π x ix i -π im m i ) i=+1 =πiqi o + (X /PPP x) - ( /PPP m), ( 9)
2 RobertC.Feenstra: 375 PPP x PPP m,i=+1,,+n: +N PPP x = p x ix i i=+1 +N π x ix i & PPP m i=+1 +N = pim m i i=+1 +N πim m i.(10) i=+1 Feenstraetal.(2009), R o R e ( 9) R o : 烄 R o = 烆 π o iqi 烌 piqi + piqi 烎 +N π x ix i i=+1 +N p x ix i i=+1 烄 烆 烌烄 X - 烎 +N i=+1 +N πim m i 烌. pim m i i=+1 (11) PPP, 烄 PPP q 烆 piqi πiqi o 烌烄, PPP x 烎 +N i=+1 烆 +N i=+1 p x ix i π x ix i 烎 烆 烌烄, PPP m +N i=+1 烆 +N i=+1 烎 p m im i πim m i 烎 (11) 烌., PPP E, : PL e PPPe E, PL q PPPq, PL x PPPx, PL m PPPm. E E E (4)(11), R e Ro R e -R o R e ( ) = 1- PLe PL q piqi 烄 烆 + 1- PLe PL x 烌 烎 X ( )( ) ( )( ) - 1- PLe PL m.(12) PL e PLq,,, e o PLx >PL e PLm <PL e,, R e, Ro,, PL m Re Ro Feenstraetal.(2009)ICP 1996 GK,(5) (8), ICP
376 ( ) 11 PWT 2005, Feenstra,Inklaar andtimmer(2012) 2005, R e Ro Feenstra,InklaarandTimmer(2012),1 1 R o, Re,, (12): ( ) ( 0. ) [ ] R e -R o = R e [ 0] 0.95+ 1-0.32 0. 45 0.36 [ ] - 1-0.32 68 0.31-0.06. PL e PLq, 0.32, (12) 0 0.45,, 0.68 0.45/0.68<1, R e,, Ro R e (:, Ro ), 6% R o 40% R e Ro 1,, (12), ( 1) R o 58842, 46242 R e 25%,,( 1) R o 4030, 5373 R e 25%,,,, 1,,,41553 39550,, 5862 /39550 =15% (4088 /41674 =9.8%)1.5,, (2008a) 50%
2 RobertC.Feenstra: 377, IF20114 2016 IF,, IF 2016, 1, e, e,,, e 5320 2005 12.9,, : 2005 12.364 2005 6.863 Feenstra,InklaarandTimmer(2012)2008 : 2008 (2005 )12.716 2008 (2005 )8.916 2005 2008, 2011 : 2011 (2005 )13.078 2011 (2005 )11.583 2012, : 2012 (2005 )13.201 2012 (2005 )12.639, 2013, : 2013 (2005 )13.325 2013 (2005 )13.791, e, 2005 2008 e, 2013,,, 2005 e, 1 2 e 5320, 13 o 5862, 10%, 2012,,
378 ( ) 11,,,Angusaddison(2007), 2005 18.5% (addison,2007,5), PWT,, PWT (C) (I) (G), (tradebalance) PWT, PWT, Feenstraetal.(2009, )Johnsonetal.(2009), ICP,PWT :PWT C I G (X-),, ( ),PWT ICP,, Feenstra,InklaarandTimmer(2012) PWT,, (C I G X- ), 1996 2005,, ICP 2011,,, Feenstra,InklaarandTimmer (2012),,ICP, ICP ICP, 1970 1975 1980 1985 1996 2005,, 2005 ICP, Feenstra,Inklaar andtimmer(2012), 1970 ICP,, : ICP, 1 RE NA, C I G 2005 e PWT
2 RobertC.Feenstra: 379, (2011) 2005 1 RE NG PWT e,, ( 2008) 8 1,2 RE NA, PWT, : RENG, PWT e, 1970 ICP,, ( ),1970 ICP e PWT ( ) e 1672,,876 1975 1980, 1985,ICP, 8 2007 2008, PWT (NG ) (NA )
380 ( ) 11 2 :Feenstra,InklaarandTimmer(2012), ICP, :1970 e 1 400,, addison (2007) : 2005 e,, 2005 ICP, : (2007) 6757 (2008a) 4088 DeatonandHeston (2010), Feenstra,InklaarandTimmer (2012) PWT, (2008a) ICP2005, Feenstraetal.(2011), 2005ICP,, : 9% 21%
2 RobertC.Feenstra: 381, GK,2005 5097, 4088 25%, e 10%, 5543,Feenstra,InklaarandTimmer(2012), 5433, 5862 4088 45%,, 41553 39550, 15% (5862 /39550 ) 2005 (4088 /41674 =9.8%) 1.5, : (2008a) 50%, IF : 2013 2012, 2016,, [1] AsianDevelopmentBank,Purchasing Power Paritiesand RealExpenditures.anila,Philip- pines,2007. [2] Balk,B.,Priceand QuantityIndex Numbers.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2008. [3] Deaton,A., PriceIndexes,Inequality,andtheeasurementofWorldPoverty,American Eco- nomic Review,2010,100(1),5 34. [4] Deaton,A.,andA.Heston, UnderstandingPPPsandPPP-basedNationalAccounts,American EconomicsJournals:acroeconomics,2010,2(4),1 35. [5] Diewert,E., CommentonUnderstandingPPPsandPPP-basedNationalAccounts,American E- conomicsjournals:acroeconomics,2010a,forthcoming. [6] Diewert,E., New ethodologicaldevelopmentsfortheinternationalcomparisonprogram,re- view of Incomeand Wealth,2010b,56(SpecialIssue1),S11 S31. [7] Diewert,E.,andC.orrison, Adusting OutputandProductivityIndexesforChangesinthe TermsofTrade,EconomicJournal,1986,96(383),659 679. [8] Feenstra,R.,A.Heston,.Timmer,andH.Deng, EstimatingRealProductionandExpendi- turesacrosscountries:aproposalforimprovingthepenn WorldTables,Review of Economics and Statistics,2009,91(1),201 212. [9] Feenstra,R.,H.a,P.Neary,andD.Rao, WhoShrunkChinaPuzzlesintheeasurement ofreal,workingpaper,universityofoxford,departmentofeconomics,2011. [10]Feenstra,R.,R.Inklaar,and.Timmer, TheNextGenerationofthePenn WorldTable, UniversityofCalifornia,DavisandUniversityofGroningen,inprocess,2012.
382 ( ) 11 [11]Inklaar,R.,and.Timmer, ProductivityConvergenceacrossIndustriesandCountries:TheIm- portanceoftheory-based easurement,acroeconomic Dynamics,2009,13(S2),218 240. [12]Johnson,S.,W.Larson,C.Papageorgiou,andA.Subramanian, IsNewerBeterPenn World TableRevisionsand TheirImpacton Growth Estimates,NBER WorkingPaper,No.15455, 2009. [13]Neary,P., RationalizingthePenn WorldTable:TrueultilateralIndexesforInternationalCom- parisonsofrealincome,american Economic Review,2004,94(5),1411 1428. [14]Kohli,U., Real,RealDomesticIncome,andTerms-of-TradeChanges,Journalof Inter- nationaleconomics,2004,62(1),83 106. [15]Oahony,.,and.Timmer, Output,InputandProductivity easuresattheindustrylev- el:theeu KLESDatabase,EconomicJournal,2009,119(538),F374 F403. [16]Summers,R.,andA.Heston, ThePenn WorldTable(ark5):AnExpendedSetofInterna- tionalcomparisons,1950 1988,Quarterly Journalof Economics,1991,106(2),327 368. [17] WorldBank,World DevelopmentIndicators.Washington,DC,2007.(CDandonline) [18] WorldBank,World DevelopmentIndicators.Washington,DC,2008a.(CDandonline) [19] WorldBank, GlobalPurchasingPowerParitiesandRealExpenditures 2005InternationalCom- parisonprogram,washingtondc,2008b. HowBigisChina ROBERT C.FEENSTRA (Universityof California,Davisand NBER) Abstract IarguethattheestimatesofrealforChinafromthe WorldBankhave beenunderstatedbyasmuchas50% for2005.thisisduetotheuseofpricesinchinafrom urbanandsurroundingregions,whichoverstatetheaveragepricefoundcountry-wideand therebyunderstatereal.animplicationofthislargersizeforchinaisthatitwilover- taketheunitedstates muchearlierthanpredictedbytheinternationalonetaryfund: insteadofovertakingin2016,iexpectthatchinawilbelargerin2013oreven2012. JELClasification E01,E31,C82