2009
08 09 2
3
4
08 09 5
14402.56 40.95% 622.92 43.57% 4753.39 31.90% 302.05 45.01% 4020.24 26.03% 361.51 27.32% 23176.19 36.24% 1286.48 38.91% : 6
7 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 2006 2 2006 4 2006 6 2006 8 2006 10 2006 12 2007 2 2007 4 2007 6 2007 8 2007 10 2007 12 2008 2 2008 4 2008 6 2008 8 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 2006 2 2006 4 2006 6 2006 8 2006 10 2006 12 2007 2 2007 4 2007 6 2007 8 2007 10 2007 12 2008 2 2008 4 2008 6 2008 8
25 20 CPI(%) CPI- (%) CPI- (%) 150.00 140.00 130.00 15 120.00 10 110.00 5 0 100.00 90.00 80.00 8 Jan-06 Mar-0 6 M ay-06 Jul-06 S ep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-0 7 May-07 Jul-07 S ep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 M ay-08 Jul-08-5 S ep-08 Mar-2002 Mar-2002 Sep-2002 Feb-2003 Jun-2003 Sep-2003 Jan-2004 Apr-2004 Jul-2004 Oct-2004 Feb-2005 May-2005 Aug-2005 Nov-2005 Mar-2006 Jun-2006 Sep-2006 Jan-2007 Apr-2007 Jul-2007 Oct-2007 Feb-2008 May-2008 Aug-2008 07CPI 08 2
2006-2-7-2008-11-5 (BEI) 2006-2-3-2008-11-5 (BEI) Line, QWc1, 2008-11-4, 551 1 /2 Price USc Line, QCc1, 2008-11-4, 400 1 /4 Price USc Bsh Bsh 1000 600 800 500 600 400 300 400 200 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 2007 2008 [Delayed] Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 2007 2008 [Delayed] 9
2006-2-7-2008-11-5 (BEI) 2006-1-27-2008-11-5 (BEI) Line, QSc1, 2008-11-4, 924 1 /4 Price USc Line, QDSAc1, 2008-11-4, 3,780 Price CNY Bsh T 1400 5,000 1200 4,500 1000 4,000 3,500 800 3,000 600 2,500 400 2,000 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 2007 2008 [Delayed] Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 2007 2008 [Delayed] 10
2006-2-3-2008-11-5 (BEI) 2006-2-3-2008-11-5 (BEI) Line, QCc1, 2008-11-4, 400 1 /4 Price USc Line, QDCCc1, 2008-11-4, 1,539 Price CNY Bsh T 600 1,600 500 1,500 400 1,400 300 1,300 200 1,200 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q 2006 2007 2008 [Delayed] Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 2007 2008 [Delayed] 11
80.00% 70.00% 73.01% 60.00% 50.00% 45.70% 45.18% 40.00% 30.00% 31.78% 35.94% 23.50% 29.19% 30.09% 24.78% 20.00% 19.77% 16.00% 10.00% 4.21% 0.00% 12
08 09 13
07 08 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 14 1991 1 1992 1 1993 1 1994 1 1995 1 1996 1 1997 1 1998 1 1999 1 2000 1 2001 1 2002 1 2003 1 2004 1 2005 1 2006 1 2007 1 2008 1
14.00% GDP 35.00% 30.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 6.00% 0.00% 4.00% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 15
16
17
GDP 18
GDP WINE MILK MEAT FISH 19
08 09 20
21 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 26-Apr-08 24-May-08 21-Jun-08 19-Jul-08 23-Aug-08 / -20 0 20 40 60 80 2003.02 2003.04 2003.06 2003.08 2003.10 2003.12 2004.03 2004.05 2004.07 2004.09 2004.11 2005.02 2005.04 2005.06 2005.08 2005.10 2005.12 2006.03 2006.05 2006.07 2006.09 2006.11 2007.02 2007.08 2008.02 2008.08
22 0 20 40 2001.02 2001.05 2001.08 2001.11 2002.03 2002.06 2002.09 2002.12 2003.04 2003.07 2003.10 2004.02 2004.05 2004.08 2004.11 2005.03 2005.06 2005.09 2005.12 2006.04 2006.07 2006.10 2007.02 2007.11 2008.08-40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% Mar-92 Dec-92 Sep-93 Jun-94 Mar-95 Dec-95 Sep-96 Jun-97 Mar-98 Dec-98 Sep-99 Jun-00 Mar-01 Dec-01 Sep-02 Jun-03 Mar-04 Dec-04 Sep-05 Jun-06 Mar-07 Dec-07 Sep-08 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%
23-40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% Mar-9 2 Dec-92 Sep-93 Jun-94 Mar-95 Dec-95 Sep-96 Jun-97 Mar-98 Dec-98 Sep-99 Jun-00 Mar-01 Dec-01 Sep-02 Jun-03 Mar-04 Dec-04 Sep-05 Jun-06 Mar-07 Dec-07 Sep-08 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% -40-20 0 20 40 60 80 2001.02 2001.05 2001.08 2001.11 2002.03 2002.06 2002.09 2002.12 2003.04 2003.07 2003.10 2004.02 2004.05 2004.08 2004.11 2005.03 2005.06 2005.09 2005.12 2006.04 2006.07 2006.10 2007.02 2007.11 2008.08
80 60 40 20 0-20 24 2003.02 2003.04 2003.06 2003.08 2003.10 2003.12 2004.03 2004.05 2004.07 2004.09 2004.11 2005.02 2005.04 2005.06 2005.08 2005.10 2005.12 2006.03 2006.05 2006.07 2006.09 2006.11 2007.02 2007.08 2008.02 2008.08
80 60 40 20 0-20 25 2003.02 2003.04 2003.06 2003.08 2003.10 2003.12 2004.03 2004.05 2004.07 2004.09 2004.11 2005.02 2005.04 2005.06 2005.08 2005.10 2005.12 2006.03 2006.05 2006.07 2006.09 2006.11 2007.02 2007.08 2008.02 2008.08
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 26 2001.02 2001.05 2001.08 2001.11 2002.03 2002.06 2002.09 2002.12 2003.04 2003.07 2003.10 2004.02 2004.05 2004.08 2004.11 2005.03 2005.06 2005.09 2005.12 2006.04 2006.07 2006.10 2007.02 2007.11 2008.08
08 09 27
28
EPS PE 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 1.14 1.44 1.82 24.74 19.58 15.49 0.41 0.63 0.79 20.32 13.22 10.54 0.55 0.75 0.86 29.45 21.60 18.84 0.43 0.53 0.63 23.47 19.04 10.72 0.66 0.83 1.04 18.65 14.83 11.84 4.55 5.50 6.60 20.66 17.09 14.24 1.03 1.27 1.43 19.19 15.57 13.83 A 1.65 2.00 2.40 26.36 21.75 18.13 0.52 0.69 0.82 24.19 18.23 15.34 0.59 0.67 0.88 16.00 14.09 10.73 2008.11.5 29
30
31
32
+ a) 09 b) c) 08 09 10 EPS 0.55 0.75 0.86 33
+ 08 09 10 EPS 0.43 0.53 0.63 34
0.83 0.55 0.60 0.68 0.37 0.43 0.53 0.63 0.93 1.14 1.44 1.82 3.00 4.55 5.50 6.60-0.04-0.30 0.35 0.70 0.43 0.55 0.75 0.86 0.39 0.52 0.69 0.82 1.21 1.65 2.00 2.40 0.46 0.66 0.83 1.04 0.24 0.27 0.35 0.42 0.49 0.25 0.20 0.56 0.45 0.59 0.67 0.88 1.02 0.87 1.04 1.25 0.89 1.03 1.27 1.43 0.24 0.24 0.28 0.35 0.33 0.41 0.63 0.79 35
2009