2017 6 225 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 6 2017 Tot. No. 225 100028 1982 2015 12849. 16 2035 9114. 74 2015 3700 1 /3 2020 2015 2020 3000 4000 C921 G465 DOI 10. 3969 /j. issn. 1000-4149. 2017. 06. 008 A 1000-4149 2017 06-0079 - 11 The Size Structure and Developing Trend of the Chinese College-age Population WANG Guangzhou Institute of Population and Labor Economics CASS Beijing 100028 China Abstract This paper based on the population census data from 1982 and used the indicators of the mean education years and mean expectation years of education to observe the changes of college-age groups. Using the parity progression model this paper has made a projection for the size structure changes and developing trend of the college-age population under the two children policy. The result show that the size of the college-age population will keep continue declining in the next 15 years. The cohort population size has change from big difference between cohorts to close from cohort to cohort. The total population will decline from 128. 49 million in 2015 to 91. 14 million. It will decline one- 2017-04 - 16 2017-09 - 11 16ZDA090 79
2017 6 third in 20 years. The student population will be in the range of 30 40 million before 2020. Keywords education age population family planning policy population structure projection higher education 20 70 2013 2014 2015 10 29 2016 1 1 35 30 20 1-2 1977 1990 7 9 1991 1999 21 15% 1999 8% 9% 48% 1998 108 1999 160 2015 737. 8 2625. 3 64. 5 191. 1 1999 10. 5% 2015 40% 80
1. 40 3-4 5 2. TSchR = n SchR x = n S x /P x TSchR SchR x S x x 1 81
2017 6 P x x 1 6 3. Ped x = P x * SchR' x Ped x x P x x SchR' x SchR' x = n SchR x + ΔR x 1 - SchR x = } n SchR x + n ΔR x 1 - SchR x n x = { 6 TSchR' - TSchR = n 2 3 ΔR x 1 - SchR x 4 ΔR x x ΔR x = ΔR x + 1 ΔR x ΔR TSchR' - TSchR = n TSchR' - TSchR = n ΔR - n ΔR - ΔR* n ΔR* SchR x SchR x TSchR' - TSchR = n - 6 * ΔR - ΔR* TSchR ΔR = TSchR' - TSchR / n - 6 - TSchR 4. 1982 1990 2000 2010 2005 2015 1% 18 22 6 7 8 1982 6 20% 7 50% 1990 6 40% 7 70% 2000 6 7 70% 95% 5 6 7 8 1 6 82
18 22 18 24 18 24 18 22 1. 1 2015 18 24 12158. 00 2010 16971. 13 4800 1 /4 1987 1992 1. 76 1. 78 5000 30% 1 1982 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 18 2513. 14 2449. 60 2310. 04 2231. 87 2075. 53 1552. 30 19 2737. 96 2599. 45 1912. 29 1843. 08 2154. 35 1591. 40 20 1562. 10 2603. 61 1839. 38 1664. 04 2802. 70 1720. 00 21 1069. 08 2715. 57 1892. 48 1650. 91 2655. 66 1654. 80 22 1430. 72 2455. 21 1883. 16 1686. 06 2447. 42 1781. 60 18 22 9313. 00 12823. 43 9837. 36 9075. 96 12135. 65 8300. 10 23 1428. 42 2282. 32 1793. 12 1941. 57 2569. 60 1867. 10 24 1945. 98 2519. 42 2049. 18 1736. 21 2265. 88 1990. 80 18 24 12687. 40 17625. 16 13679. 65 12753. 74 16971. 13 12158. 00 1% 1. 3 1982 18 24 12687. 40 18 19 2500 20 23 1100 1600 18 19 1982 19 2727. 96 21 1069. 08 1600 2015 18 19 1600 1982 18 19 1000 2015 2000 24 1990. 80 18 1552. 30 450 24 18 30% 83
2017 6 2. 2010 4440. 01 1990 1192. 86 3300 2000 1692. 64 2700 2015 3965. 50 2010 470 10% 2 2 % 1982 1990 2000 2010 2015 18 244. 53 9. 73 420. 11 17. 15 717. 05 33. 18 1150. 00 56. 95 1044. 80 67. 31 19 153. 33 5. 60 293. 74 11. 30 417. 37 23. 38 942. 95 45. 86 893. 80 56. 16 20 52. 64 3. 37 202. 56 7. 78 246. 21 15. 13 972. 32 36. 08 778. 70 45. 27 21 22. 99 2. 15 146. 64 5. 40 168. 84 9. 81 682. 53 27. 20 562. 90 34. 02 22 16. 02 1. 12 81. 51 3. 32 92. 11 5. 29 389. 47 16. 84 368. 60 20. 69 18 22 489. 51 5. 26 1144. 56 8. 93 1641. 58 18. 17 4137. 27 35. 69 3648. 80 43. 96 23 9. 14 0. 64 32. 18 1. 41 36. 95 2. 22 204. 42 8. 35 203. 00 10. 87 24 8. 95 0. 46 16. 12 0. 64 14. 11 0. 74 98. 32 4. 55 113. 70 5. 71 18 24 507. 60 4. 00 1192. 86 6. 77 1692. 64 13. 44 4440. 01 27. 40 3965. 50 32. 62 1982 1990 2000 2010 2015 1% 18 24 2015 32. 62% 1982 4. 00% 28% 2000 1982 1990 2. 77% 1990 2000 6. 67% 1999 2000 2010 27. 40% 13. 96% 2010 2015 5 5. 22% 2015 18 67. 31% 2010 56. 95% 10 1990 17. 15% 50 3. 18 19 20 18 19 20 2015 21. 01% 2010 16. 36% 4. 8 2000 5. 6% 15% 19 20 2015 19 20 33. 22% 35. 69% 2010 23. 33% 26. 72% 10% 84
2000 2010 2015 19 20 3 / 3 % 2000 2010 2015 / / / / 18 24. 81 4. 70 0. 00 3. 67 39. 58 12. 03 0. 00 5. 35 43. 77 20. 36 0. 01 3. 16 19 11. 57 10. 24 0. 00 1. 57 19. 97 23. 30 0. 03 2. 57 21. 30 33. 18 0. 04 1. 64 20 4. 82 10. 15 0. 00 0. 16 9. 33 26. 68 0. 04 0. 04 9. 52 35. 64 0. 05 0. 07 21 1. 96 7. 78 0. 04 0. 02 3. 82 23. 15 0. 21 0. 03 4. 54 29. 22 0. 23 0. 03 22 0. 88 4. 23 0. 18 0. 01 1. 73 14. 43 0. 65 0. 03 2. 35 17. 39 0. 93 0. 02 18 22 9. 63 7. 27 0. 04 1. 22 13. 78 20. 32 0. 19 1. 41 15. 65 27. 11 0. 26 0. 93 23 0. 30 1. 71 0. 21 0. 00 0. 74 6. 47 1. 12 0. 02 1. 18 8. 38 1. 29 0. 02 24 0. 19 0. 39 0. 16 0. 00 0. 44 2. 74 1. 33 0. 03 0. 61 4. 00 1. 09 0. 02 18 24 6. 98 5. 50 0. 08 0. 88 10. 03 15. 88 0. 48 1. 01 10. 97 20. 45 0. 56 0. 64 2000 2010 2015 1% 4. 1995 290. 60 7. 2% 30 2015 2625. 30 40% 4 4 % 18 22 1995 290. 60 7. 20 2000 556. 09 12. 50 734. 84 2005 1561. 78 21. 00 1058. 84 2010 2231. 80 26. 50 2735. 89 2000 2015 2625. 30 40. 00 2718. 60 1. 2016 2. 2000 2010 2005 2015 1% 734. 84 556. 09 180 2005 1561. 78 2005 1058. 84 550 2010 2231. 80 85
2017 6 2735. 89 500 2015 2625. 30 2718. 60 100 1 1. 1982 1% 2. 1990 1% 3. 2000 2010 2015 0. 95 4. 2005 1% 5 20 24 6 24 1990 1982 3. 37 7. 41 7. 05 9 93% 6 1990 7. 78 8. 03 8. 91 2000 15. 13 9. 15 11. 06 7 8 6 2005 21. 30 9. 76 12. 30 37% 7 73% 8 90% 2010 36. 08 13. 07 2015 45. 27 13. 52 2015 6 80% 7 96. 26% 2000 47. 82 13. 84 14. 72 8 98% 1 2005 8. 27 10. 82 2000 61. 87 14. 00 1. 1982 1% 2. 1990 1% 3. 2000 0. 95 4. 2005 1% 5. Census of Population and 2000 2015 Housing 2000 United States Public Use Micro-data Sample 5 - Percent Sample 9280822 www. icpsr. com. 6. India Human 7 13 Development Survey IHDS 2005 134887 www. icpsr. com. 7. Japan 2000 National Survey on Family and Economic Conditions NSFEC 20 50 4469 www. icpsr. com. 10 14 y 1982 = 0. 004 + 15 22 1. 44* x 1990-0. 546* x 2000 R = 0. 995 a 15 17 15 86
20 2015 20 45. 27% 2010 36. 08% 10% 20 90 1999 2000 20 47. 82% 2% 2000 61. 87% 15% 5 2015 13. 52 2010 13. 07 0. 45 2005 12. 30 1. 22 2015 13. 52 2000 14. 72 1. 2 10 10 2000 1. 30 1990 17625. 16 2010 16204. 42 2010 2 3-4 2015 12849. 16 2035 9114. 74 2015 3700 1 /3 2035 2040 11077 2200 2035 1 /4 2 2. 87
2017 6 2050 14. 5 2000 14. 7 0. 36 15 2000 0. 48 14 3 3 2020 2015 2020 3000 4000 2050 3000 2035 2035 2035 30 20 2015 20 45. 27% 2010 36. 08% 10% 2000 2015 13. 53 2000 14. 72 1. 21 88
2015 12849. 16 2035 9114. 74 2015 3700 1 /3 2020 2015 2020 3000 4000 1. 2015 1% J. 2017 4 2-14. 2. J. 2015 2 2-15. 3. J. 2016 1 82-89. 4. J. 2012 5 119-140. 5. J. 1986 2 24-32. 6. J. 2008 2 62-67. 89