機構股票研究 中國平安 (601318.SH) 業績穩健股價上升空間巨大 中國 保險 公司研報 27 October 2015 要點回顧 截止 2015 年前 2 季度末, 中國平安的業績表現優於預期 期內股東應占溢利約達人民幣 346.49 億元, 同比大幅上升 62.2%, 折合每股收益人民幣 1.90 元, 由於期內總股本增加了一倍, 經調整稀釋後, 同比去年上升了 48.4%; 根據中國保監會最新的統計資料顯示, 截止 2015 年 9 月末, 中國平安的壽險及產險累計保費收入同比分別大幅增長 18.58% 及 15.73% 至人民幣 1,639.92 億元及 1,216.38 億元 ; 總資產保持穩定增長, 期內較 2014 年末上升 15.6% 至人民幣 4.63 萬億元, 淨資產上升了 14.4% 至人民幣 3,311.90 億元 ; 現有的 銀行 + 保險 + 投資 架構的協調效應日益凸顯, 實現移動平臺一站式綜合服務 從目前的表現看, 其業務結構的完善性, 是其主要的競爭優勢 ; 近日中國平安將公佈其第三季度業績, 我們認為, 中國平安的保費收入將繼續保持在 2 位數以上的增長水準, 但鑒於第三季度中國資本市場的劇烈動盪, 其投資收入增速將顯著下降 不過, 由於最近中國平安的股價已經出現大幅下降, 估值已經具有吸引力, 因此我們給予中國平安 A 股 12 個月目標價至人民幣 65.00 元, 較現價高出於約 93%, 相當於 2016 年每股收益的 15.6 倍及每股淨資產的 2.0 倍 給予中國平安 A 股 買入 評級 ( 現價截至 2015 年 10 月 23 日 ) 收入增長穩定 中國平安利潤大幅增長的主要原因之一是其保費收入的穩定增長, 截止 2015 年 9 月末, 中國平安的壽險及產險累計保費收入同比分別大幅增長 18.58% 及 15.73% 至人民幣 1,639.92 億元及 1,216.38 億元 同時由於市場環境好轉, 中國平安其他收入也出現強勁增長 其中, 投資收益穩定增長, 截止 6 月末, 集團的保險資金投資組合總額約達人民幣 1.64 萬億元, 較 2014 年末增長 11.2% 淨投資收益同比大幅上升 27.4% 至人民幣 406.22 億元 不過, 我們預計今年第 3 季度其投資收益增速將顯著下降 另外, 集團的銀行業務發展迅猛, 截止 2 季度末, 平安銀行的淨利潤同比增長約 15% 至人民幣 115.85 億元, 但資產品質明顯下滑, 不良貸款比率由 2014 年末的 1.02% 上升至 1.32%, 不良貸款餘額大幅上升了近 50% 至人民幣 157.29 億元 我們認為未來銀行資產品質惡化的趨勢還會持續下去,3 季度末, 其不良貸款比率將在 1.50%-1.60% 左右 中國平安壽險及產險保費收入增長 Commulative growth rate yoy 10 8 Commulative rate of Life Insurance (Left) Commulative rate of P&C Insurance (Left) Monthly rate of Life Insurance (Right) Monthly rate of P&C Insurance (Right) Monthly growth rate yoy 10 8 買入 ( 維持 ) 現價 : RMB 33.73 ( 現價截至 2015 年 10 月 23 日 ) 目標價 : RMB 65.00 (+93%) 公司資料普通股股東 ( 百萬股 ) : 18,280 市值 ( 人民幣百萬元 ) : 616,600 52 周最高價 / 最低價 * ( 人民幣元 ) : 94.30/ 39.96 * 現價經調整後 主要股東, % 深圳市投資控股 : 5.27 同盈貿易 4.32 隆福集團 2.77 股價表現, % 1 個月 3 個月 1 年 中國平安 6.17-14.88 62.87 上證綜指 7.12-15.24 46.67 財務資料 Key Financial Summary FYE 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F Net earned premiums (RMB mn) 240,199 288,779 332,096 385,231 Net Profit, adj. (RMB mn) 28,154 39,279 60,480 76,377 EPS, adj. (RMB) 3.56 4.93 3.31 4.18 P/E (X) 9.5 6.8 10.2 8.1 BVPS (RMB) 23.08 32.56 21.38 32.25 P/B (X) 1.5 1.0 1.6 1.0 DPS (RMB) 0.65 0.75 0.58 0.76 Div. Yield 1.93% 2.22% 1.73% 2.25% Source: Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 研研研研研陳星宇 (+ 86 21 51699400-105) chenxingyu@phillip.com.cn 6 4 2-2 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 6 4 2-2 -4-4 Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research -6 Page 1 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
總體看, 中國平安的經營表現符合我們此前預期, 這主要得益於保費收入及其它各類主要業務收入的穩定增長 我們對 2015 年保險行業發展仍然持樂觀預期, 保險公司的保費收入將維持穩定增長, 同時預計投資收益在第 4 季度將明顯上升 因此, 我們給予中國平安 A 股的目標價至人民幣 65.00 元, 較現價高出於約 93%, 相當於 2016 年每股收益的 15.6 倍及每股淨資產的 2.0 倍, 估值吸引 給予中國平安 A 股 買入 評級 中國平安淨投資收益增長 Growth rate y-y 20 Net investment income 15 10 5-5 -10 Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 中國平安資產增長 Assets (RMB Growth rate y-y Million) 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Total assets Growth of TA (Right) 20022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015E Source: CNBS, Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 風險 Net assets 主要業務收入增速低於預期 ; 受市場環境影響, 短期內股價持續大幅下跌 Growth of NA (Right) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 Page 2 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
財務報告 Income Statement (RMB Mn) 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Gross written premiums and policy fees 233,940 269,051 326,423 424,350 530,437 Net earned premiums 213,144 240,199 288,779 332,096 385,231 Interest income of banking operations 34,501 42,430 54,895 65,874 77,731 Fees and commission imcome of non-insurance operations 9,436 13,836 22,413 30,258 37,822 Net investment income 32,996 54,917 78,735 102,356 148,415 Other income 8,935 11,034 17,636 22,927 28,659 Total income 299,372 362,631 462,882 569,345 711,681 Commission expenses of insurance operations (80,512) (90,663) (102,659) (112,925) (135,510) Extraction of insurance liability reserve (72,810) (94,545) (108,419) (122,513) (144,566) Genral and administrative expenses (57,912) (69,168) (85,665) (102,798) (128,498) Impairment losses (10,017) (8,966) (24,896) (38,589) (57,883) Other expenses (13,528) (17,431) (27,104) (35,235) (47,568) Total expense (266,997) (316,292) (400,541) (480,649) (600,812) Profit before tax 32,338 46,224 62,353 88,746 110,940 Income tax (5,588) (10,210) (14,423) (18,750) (24,000) Income tax rate 17.28% 22.09% 23.13% 21.13% 21.63% Profit for the year 26,750 36,014 47,930 69,996 86,940 Minority interest 6,700 7,860 8,651 9,516 10,563 Net profit 20,050 28,154 39,279 60,480 76,377 Dividend 3,562 5,145 6,669 10,670 13,872 EPS 2.53 3.56 4.93 3.31 4.18 DPS 0.45 0.65 0.75 0.58 0.76 BVPS 20.16 23.08 32.56 21.38 32.25 EVPS 36.11 41.64 25.80 36.21 42.36 Dividend payout ratio 17.77% 18.28% 16.98% 17.64% 18.16% Dividend yield 1.33% 1.93% 2.22% 1.73% 2.25% Net profit / Gross premiums 8.57% 10.46% 12.03% 14.25% 14.40% Net profit / Net earned premiums 9.41% 11.72% 13.60% 18.21% 19.83% P/E (X) 13.3 9.5 6.8 10.2 8.1 P/B (X) 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.6 1.0 P/EV (x) 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.8 Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Estimates (Financial figures as at 23 October 2015) Page 3 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
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