CHINA SECURITIES RESEARCH - - 2004 25.38 67.7% 2007 60 98.59 2008 5 10 3 14 140 100 40 200 - - 18.95 30.05 98.59 77 21.59 22.9% 10 / 15 / 0.13 / 50% 10 / 2008 0.51 35 PE 17.85 10 / 27.85 / huangfusheng@csc.com.cn 10-010--85130963 2008 05 22 21.36 6 27.85 /% 1 3 12 24.9/14.1-2.4/17.8 6.5/20.3 12 / 44.85/0 43,480 A 33,759 92.87 72.11 3 1,091 3.45% 2007A 2008F 2009F 2010F 0.29 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.10 0.37 0.38 40 SC 0.05 0.23 0.08 0.12 0.13 EPS 0.29 0.51 0.85 1.03 PE 79 45 27 22
... 1 40... 4... 5... 6... 8... 10... 12... 13... 14
1... 3 2... 3 3 SC... 4 4...5 5... 7 6... 7 7... 7 8... 8 9... 9 10... 10 11... 10 12... 10 13 DCF... 13
- - 2004 25.38 67.7% 2004 7 12 2005 39.30 54.85% 2007 100% 1760mm 61 41 2007 12 31 60 98.59 2007 3 40 2008 4 10 3 14 140 100 40 200 - - 1 % 120 80 100 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Wind 2004 2005 11.56 18.57 68.5% 60.59% 8274.2 11250.30 16.04% 35.97% 2006 18.73 0.88% 1 26.05% 41.65% 2007 29.65 26.83% 1.49 47.79% 2008 100% 1
2 % 350000 80% 16000 60% 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 60% 40% 20% 0% 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 40% 20% 0% -20% 0-20% 0-40% Wind 2004 17.31 2005 25.47 7.5% 2006 2006 16.66 34.59% 2004 66% 2007 3.08% 2004 7 12 2007 15 2007 32% 23% 19% 3 2007 % Wind 2005 4 7050 5 8580 21.7% 2005 --2007 2005 4 5300 / 2007 1 4350 / 18% 2
23% 12% 20% 4 / Wind 55 15 40 20 2007 6000 / 20% 40 2007 41 2008 42 6500 / 20% 2 1 2007 2008 2009 2010 () 177244.0059 220357.41 231375.2834 231375.28 16.32% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00% () 69045.47725 120000 121200 122000 24.35% 25.00% 24.00% 23.00% () 11398.07108 10828.16753 10611.60418 10505.48813 13.52% 14.00% 14.50% 14.00% 2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2965.00 3511.86 3631.87 3638.81 3
58.32% 18.44% 3.42% 0.19% 114.85 184.12 174.85 165.92 32.97% 60.31% -5.04% -5.10% EPS 0.29 0.42 0.40 0.38 2007 3 1.65 6.5 40 18.83 2030 2008 1 40 40 20 / 1 25.7 4 17 9 2 20 550 6 5.85 1400 /2008 4 28 100 2009 70 20 40 30 18 108 2008 5150 /7900 / 1000 / 6100 / 6000 7000 / 5800 6500 / 16 1.5 2009 8 24 0.25 100 3 SC 2009 2010 2011 2012 30500 180000 236000 243600 22875 138600 184080 192444 % 25% 23% 22% 21% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 4118 24300 31860 32886 3508 17100 20060 18270 4
25% 25% 25% 25% 876.875 4275 5015 4567.5 2631 12825 15045 13703 EPS 0.05 0.23 0.27 0.24 2008 5 20 100% 13.63 30.05 2.45 2006 6 80,000 9 2007 4 9 40 14 14 72.7 20 50 7 5 2 118.23 0.92 4.13 1.65 40 2007 12 80% 5 10 2008 8 2009 35 2010 45 6100--6400 / 3100 3600 / 21.13 2.64 434800073 10 3 130440021 56524 4 2008 2009 2010 2011 42400 182000 204000 225000 28800 129500 148000 166500 % 32.08% 28.85% 27.45% 26.00% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 5724.0 24570.0 27540.0 30375.0 7876.00 27930.00 28460.00 28125.00 25% 25% 25% 25% 1969 6982.5 7115 7031.25 5907.00 20947.50 21345.00 21093.75 EPS 0.10 0.37 0.38 0.37 5
1 2 18.95 3 2008 5 20 2.45 30.05 IRR 23.59% 3.91 2005 4 22 6 28 2.26 16435 72.57% 6213 27.43% 2007 3 15 16500 6400 27.43% 100% 86.37 2006 5 31 27.43% 11 187 6400 2004 IPO 2004 4 60 6455.3 10.89 2.55 2005 85 2007 2007 3 18.95 2006 8 30 788 18993 50 10041 5 30 2007 7 12 541 14042 30 2007 12 31 18.95 13 6
5 116542.6 44829.6 26068.2 2050.5 189490.9 6 / 12301.5 45259.05 3.68 6402.7 22462.3 3.51 23541 79758.5 3.39 39759 36589.7 0.92 24379 83458.33 3.42 18993 28181.38 1.48 2101.2 2608 1.24 13740 110117.44 8.01 14 47973.5 145893.48 3.04 300 1680 5.60 189490.9 556008.18 2.93 2008 4 2007 12 31 7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 714.5 714.5 713 4598.46 28140.61 26493.1 59945.17 115111.15 2515.65 5555.5 8609.95 14368.85 62749.85 454.8 4009.5 213375.25 249.3 1200 1449.3 384.9 4948.9 16060 203413.46 266865.56 198862.43 18619.77 1221 710376.04 115496.05 7464.55 22328.5 216621.87 309624.32 290019.88 19074.57 5230.5 985860.26 769964.59 78.15% 215895.67 22.9% 795448.96 190411.3 7
170 2000 200 510 2010 1000 98.58 2008 2008 2009 985860.26 85.59 13 6 120.4 / 8.03 / 14 128.85 / 8.59 / 3 / 769964.59 215895.67 8 / 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 430.00 473.00 516.00 559.00 602.00 645.00 688.00 731.00 774.00 / 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 26 32.5 39 45.5 52 58.5 65 71.5 78 8
5 7 20 2003 2005 2007 2006 2006 4.15 4837.37 2395.66 2007 2.06 1146.9 648.9 2007 13.14 7926.6 9904.24 3907.42 3840.57 2007 603.24 / 9 // 460 520 580 620 680 730 780 830 890 590 6.24 7.06 7.87 8.41 9.23 9.91 10.58 11.26 12.08 620 6.56 7.41 8.27 8.84 9.70 10.41 11.12 11.84 12.69 650 6.88 7.77 8.67 9.27 10.17 10.91 11.66 12.41 13.30 680 7.19 8.13 9.07 9.70 10.63 11.42 12.20 12.98 13.92 700 7.41 8.37 9.34 9.98 10.95 11.75 12.56 13.36 14.33 720 7.62 8.61 9.60 10.27 11.26 12.09 12.92 13.74 14.74 750 7.93 8.97 10.00 10.69 11.73 12.59 13.45 14.32 15.35 800 8.46 9.57 10.67 11.41 12.51 13.43 14.35 15.27 16.38 18.95 105 1.17 111.43 /. 120 /. 75428.26 39284.63 52.08% 40%--52% 4 30 6666.67 70% 30% 2666.67 60%40% 30% 40% 2007 8 40 0.44 / 9
2007 13.14 2006 4.15 15 2007 603.24 / 15% 0.13 / 10 % 40 11 / 0.29 74 42 25 21 20 2008 5 22 21.36 2007 43480 56524 : 12 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E 2,337.73 2,965.00 3,935.86 5,756.87 7,478.81 32.40% 51.56% 32.74% 46.27% 29.91% EBITDA 903.88 1,158.25 686.97 998.00 1,201.56 10
EBITDA 174.20% 28.14% -40.69% 45.28% 20.40% 79.40 114.85 244.67 466.36 588.90 0.00% 144.66% 113.03% 90.61% 26.28% ROE 8.34% 4.09% 13.95% 21.92% 22.66% EPS 0.294 0.290 0.510 0.850 1.030 P/E 72.58 73.66 41.88 25.13 20.74 P/B 6.05 3.31 10.40 8.57 7.02 EV/EBITDA 9.46 9.61 22.74 22.22 18.72 2,006 2,007 2,008F 2,009F 2,010F 2,337.73 2,965.00 3,935.86 32.74% 5,756.87 46.27% 7,478.81 29.91% 1,915.92 2,426.51 3,088.05 27.26% 4,432.88 43.55% 5,793.02 30.68% 92.05 119.92 177.11 47.70% 259.06 46.27% 336.55 29.91% 110.20 142.41 196.79 38.19% 287.84 46.27% 373.94 29.91% 90.88 115.46 157.43 36.36% 230.27 46.27% 299.15 29.91% 0.07 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 100.96 149.20 295.91 98.34% 516.75 74.63% 637.09 23.29% 297.00 660.11 299.13-54.69% 519.97 73.83% 640.31 23.14% 21.20 37.56 54.46 44.99% 53.61-1.55% 51.41-4.11% 86.38 114.85 244.67 113.03% 466.36 90.61% 588.90 26.28% 79.40 114.85 244.67 113.03% 466.36 90.61% 588.90 26.28% NOPLAT 191.83 264.65 453.34 71.30% 747.03 64.78% 936.24 25.33% 257.23 1,150.20 1,377.55 19.77% 2,014.90 46.27% 2,617.58 29.91% 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 333.25 289.77 384.65 32.74% 562.62 46.27% 730.91 29.91% 272.16 212.75 305.39 43.54% 394.05 29.03% 509.91 29.40% 1,086.56 1,488.32 1,861.29 25.06% 2,671.87 43.55% 3,491.69 30.68% 2,222.64 3,444.59 4,313.50 25.23% 6,048.28 40.22% 7,876.01 30.22% 2,935.23 3,336.81 3,464.45 3.83% 3,513.48 1.42% 3,448.16-1.86% 5,157.87 6,781.41 7,777.95 14.70% 9,561.76 22.93% 11,324.18 18.43% 1,675.45 1,817.45 3,301.65 81.66% 4,275.61 29.50% 4,995.41 16.84% 386.81 382.17 479.70 25.52% 688.61 43.55% 899.89 30.68% 45.56 86.91 141.81 63.16% 222.10 56.62% 326.41 46.96% 2,783.57 2,561.66 4,541.76 77.30% 5,752.49 26.66% 6,843.78 18.97% 1,353.48 1,412.36 1,481.71 4.91% 1,681.71 13.50% 1,881.71 11.89% 68.71 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 952.12 2,807.39 1,754.48-37.51% 2,127.56 21.26% 2,598.68 22.14% (560.93) 882.94 (228.26) N/A 295.79 N/A 1,032.23 248.97% 11
86.38 114.85 244.67 113.03% 466.36 90.61% 588.90 26.28% 712.04 893.60 0.00 N/A 250.97 N/A 265.32 5.72% 17.02 1,443.87 (1,111.20) N/A 524.06 N/A 736.44 40.53% 510.38 538.21 243.68-54.72% 236.94-2.77% 299.81 26.54% (153.07) (283.70) (352.70) N/A (300.00) N/A (200.00) N/A (233.28) 27.13 336.37 1139.84% 700.42 108.23% 502.87-28.20% 124.03 281.64 227.35-19.28% 637.35 180.34% 602.68-5.44% DCF FCFF 14.60 WACC 13~16 / (2010-2017) 6.00% 1.00% 0.00% Rf 5.00% 1.12 Rm 11.00% Ke 11.69% 18.21% Kd 5.18% Ve 12,073.53 Vd 4,923.36 WACC 9.80% FCFF 847.85 7.22% 4,811.70 40.99% 6,079.59 51.79% AEV 11,739.14 100.00% 1,434.70 12.22% 0.00 0.00% 4,923.36-41.94% 8,250.48 70.28% 12
565.24 14.60 13 DCF (g) WACC -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 7.30% 20.94 21.98 23.16 24.51 26.08 27.92 30.10 32.74 35.99 7.80% 18.82 19.69 20.67 21.79 23.07 24.56 26.30 28.37 30.87 8.30% 16.94 17.68 18.50 19.43 20.49 21.71 23.12 24.77 26.73 8.80% 15.27 15.90 16.59 17.38 18.26 19.26 20.42 21.75 23.32 9.30% 13.77 14.31 14.91 15.57 16.31 17.15 18.10 19.19 20.46 9.80% 12.43 12.89 13.40 13.97 14.60 15.30 16.09 17.00 18.03 10.30% 11.22 11.62 12.06 12.54 13.08 13.67 14.34 15.10 15.95 10.80% 10.12 10.47 10.85 11.27 11.72 12.23 12.80 13.43 14.15 11.30% 9.12 9.43 9.76 10.12 10.51 10.95 11.43 11.97 12.57 11.80% 8.21 8.48 8.77 9.08 9.42 9.80 10.21 10.67 11.18 12.30% 7.38 7.61 7.86 8.14 8.43 8.76 9.11 9.51 9.94 2008 0.51 35 PE 17.85 50% 10 / 10 / 27.85 / 1 40 SC 40 2 3 13
2,006 2,007 2,008F 2,009F 2,010F 32.40% 51.56% 32.74% 46.27% 29.91% 0.00% 0.00% 113.03% 90.61% 26.28% EBITDA 174.20% 28.14% -40.69% 45.28% 20.40% EBIT -2.94% 37.96% 71.30% 64.78% 25.33% 17.90% 20.40% 21.54% 23.00% 22.54% EBITDA Margin (%) 122.63% 40.55% -48.54% 17.08% 11.82% ROE 8.34% 4.09% 13.95% 21.92% 22.66% ROIC 5.04% 5.70% 8.65% 12.44% 13.79% ROIC WACC -4.40% -4.41% -1.16% 2.36% 3.88% P / E 72.58 73.66 37.96 25.89 20.50 EV / 3.66 3.75 3.97 3.85 3.01 EV / EBITDA 9.46 9.61 22.74 22.22 18.72 EV / EBIT 44.59 42.04 34.45 29.68 24.02 EV / NOPLAT 44.59 42.04 34.45 29.68 24.02 EV / IC 2.25 2.39 2.98 3.69 3.31 P / B 6.05 3.31 10.40 8.57 7.02 Dividend Yield (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.53% 0.77% 0.98% EPS 0.29 0.29 0.56 0.83 1.04 EPS 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.20 1.89 1.24 0.29 0.28 0.35 0.46 0.65 0.27 0.75 0.71 3.53 6.46 2.05 2.49 3.04 / 2.91 0.66 1.94 1.85 1.64 / 80.21% 58.60% 77.44% 77.75% 77.05% 0.80 1.34 0.95 1.05 1.15 0.41 0.76 0.54 0.59 0.64 14
: 15
12 15 12 5 15 12-5 5 12 5 15 12 15 1 EV=+ 2 EBIT 3 EBITDA EBIT 4 NOPLAT EBIT 1 EBIT 5 IC invested capital 6 ROIC NOPLAT / IC 100 7 OPFCF EBITDA 8 WACC [(Ke Ve)Kd Vd ] / (Ve Vd) 9 Kd 1 10 Ve Vd 11 Ke = Rf + (Rm Rf) 12 16
, 2004 2006 2003-2006 2003 47.91% 37 2004 50 3.56% 13 2006 Top30 180% 50 100010 200120 188 4 528 2601 (8610) 8513-0588 (8621) 6880-2288 (8610) 6518-0322 (8621) 6880-1551 17