218 年 7 月 31 日 格力电器 [651.CH] 格力电器正受益于近期国内对空调的强劲需求, 我们预计公司将录得强劲的 218 年上半年业绩 近期人民币疲弱也对格力电器有利 然而, 考虑到公司 218 年下半年的空调销售可见度低 产品类型单一 针对的市场单一 缺乏明确的盈利驱动因素, 以及欠缺连贯的增长策略, 我们维持对格力的谨慎看法 投资亮点 预计 218 年上半年表现强劲 由于天气炎热, 库存水平偏低以及房地产市场坚挺, 中国的所有空调生产商都录得强劲的销售增长 格力指引 218 年收入为 2, 亿元人民币, 而市场共识预期为 1,77 亿元人民币 我们预计格力 218 年上半年的销售额达到 95 亿元人民币, 同比增长 34% 市场过度忧虑贸易战的影响 我们估计格力 217 年出口金额约 2%( 或约 3 亿元人民币 ) 是出口到美国, 这仅相当于格力 217 年总收入的 2% 左右 美元储备有助公司实现汇兑收益 截至 217 年 12 月底, 格力持有约 65 亿美元的现金, 另拥有约 15 亿美元债务 我们估计, 自 217 年 12 月以来人民币贬值 5% 将为公司带来税前汇兑收益约 18 亿元人民币, 或代表着格力 218 年税前利润将增厚 6% 然而, 这是一次性收益, 不应导致股份获得重新估值 格力的出口将受益于美元的强势 由于人民币在 218 年上半年大部分时间相对强势,218 年上半年业绩应会因此受负面影响, 但虽然如此, 近期人民币汇率波动应会对下半年业绩产生影响 我们估计 5% 人民币贬值将使格力 218 年下半年税前利润增加约 2 亿元人民币, 相当于 218 年税前利润的约.7% 219 年受的影响应会更大 估值合理 格力有望在 218 年上半年实现稳健的收入增长, 其低估值以及中期股息公告可能会促成优异的近期表现 虽然公司可能受益于人民币疲弱, 但其影响不足以引发重新估值 尽管 218 年上半年收入强劲增长, 但由于空调销售可见度低, 缺乏明确的长远增长动力, 加上企业战略并不连贯, 我们对公司 218 年下半年表现持谨慎看法 我们认为格力会较同业如海尔和美的存在折价, 给予公司 9.5 倍目标 219 年市盈率, 意味着 12 个月目标价为 48 元人民币, 即上涨幅度约 8.5% 来源 : 公司年报, 中国银河国际证券研究部 216 217 218E 219E 22E 收入 Revenue ( 百万人民币 ) 11,113 15,2 178,252 23,787 223,364 增长 Growth (%) (%) 9% 36% 19% 14% 1% 净利润 Net Profit ( 百万人民币 ) 15,464 22,42 26,212 3,49 33,61 增长 Growth (%) (%) 23% 45% 17% 16% 1% 每股盈利 EPS (RMB) ( 人民币 ) 2.57 3.72 4.36 5.5 5.59 市盈率 ( 倍 ) PER (x) 16.8 11.6 9.9 8.5 7.7 市净率 ( 倍 ) PBR (x) 4.8 4. 3.2 2.7 2.2 家电行业 持有 收盘价 : 44.22 元人民币 (218 年 7 月 3 日 ) 股价表现 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 市值 目标价 : 48 元人民币 (+8.5%) 流通在外股数 Turnover (RMB, in mln, RHS) Price (RMB) 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 39 亿美元 6.16 亿股 自由流通量 56% 52 周高位 58.7 元人民币 52 周低位 36.4 元人民币 三个月日均成交额 : 4.3 亿美元 主要股东 : 格力集团 (18.2%) 來源 : 公司, 彭博 Jeff Dorr 分析员 (852) 3698 6323 jeffreydorr@chinastock.com.hk 张岸 分析员 (852) 3698 6293 zhangan@chinastock.com.hk 张富绅 研究总监 (852) 3698 6275 johnsoncheung@chinastock.com.hk
July 31, 218 GREE ELECTRIC [651.CH] Gree is benefitting from recent strong domestic demand for air conditioning, and we expect the Company to report a strong performance for 218H1. Recent RMB weakness also benefits Gree. We remain cautious on Gree, however, due low visibility on AC sales in 218H2, its single-product, singlemarket focus, the lack of new discernible earnings drivers, and an inconsistent growth strategy. Investment Highlights Anticipating strong 218H1 performance. Due to hot weather, lean inventory levels, and a resilient property market, all AC manufacturers in China are seeing strong sales growth. Gree is guiding revenue of RMB 2bn in 218 versus consensus estimates of ~RMB 177bn. We expect Gree to achieve sales of ~RMB95bn in 218H1, or 34% YoY growth. Trade war concerns overblown. We estimate that 2% of Gree s exports, or ~RMB3bn in 217, were exported to the United States. This is equivalent to ~2% of Gree s total sales in 217. USD holdings to result in currency gains. As of Dec. 217, Gree held ~US$6.5bn in cash, against ~US$1.5bn in debt. We estimate that 5% RMB depreciation since Dec. 217 will result in a translation gain of ~RMB1.8bn before tax, or a 6% increase in Gree s 218E PBT. However, this is a oneoff gain which should not result in a re-rating of the stock. Gree s exports will benefit from USD strength. While the 218H1 results should have been negatively affected by the relatively strong RMB in most of 218H1, recent RMB exchange rate fluctuations should have an impact in 218H2. We estimate that 5% RMB depreciation will increase Gree s 218H2 PBT by ~RMB2m, or ~.7% of 218E s PBT. The impact should be greater in 219. Fair Valuation. Gree is on track for solid revenue growth in 218H1, and its low valuation, coupled with an interim dividend announcement, may result in near-term outperformance. Although the Company may benefit from RMB weakness, the impact is not sufficiently large to justify a re-rating. In spite of a strong 218H1 top line, we remain cautious about 218H2 in light of low visibility on AC sales, the lack of new discernible long-term growth drivers, and an inconsistent corporate strategy. We believe Gree warrants a discount relative to its peers Haier and Midea and value the Company at 9.5x 219 earnings, implying a 12-month target price of RMB48, or ~8.5% upside. 216 217 218E 219E 22E Revenue 11,113 15,2 178,252 23,787 223,364 Growth (%) 9% 36% 19% 14% 1% Net Profit 15,464 22,42 26,212 3,49 33,61 Growth (%) 23% 45% 17% 16% 1% EPS (RMB) 2.57 3.72 4.36 5.5 5.59 PER (x) 16.8 11.6 9.9 8.5 7.7 PBR (x) 4.8 4. 3.2 2.7 2.2 Home Appliances Sector HOLD Close: RMB 44.22 (July 3, 218) Target Price: RMB 48 (+8.5%) Price Performance 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Market Cap Turnover (RMB, in mln, RHS) Price (RMB) 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, US$39Bn Shares Outstanding 6,16m Free Float 56% 52W High RMB 58.7 52W Low RMB 36.4 3M Avg Daily T/O: US$ 43m Major Shareholders: Gree Group (18.2%) Sources: Company, Bloomberg Jeff Dorr Analyst (852) 3698 6323 jeffreydorr@chinastock.com.hk An Zhang Analyst (852) 3698 6293 zhangan@chinastock.com.hk Johnson Cheung Research Director (852) 3698 6275 johnsoncheung@chinastock.com.hk
Impact of Gree s USD Holdings As of Dec. 217, Gree held ~US$46.5bn in cash against ~US$1.5bn in debt. The net USD position was reported as the equivalent of RMB35.4bn. Changes in the USD/RMB exchange rate will create translation gains/losses that will accrue to net profit. We estimate that 5% RMB depreciation since Dec. 217 will result in a translation gain of ~RMB1.8bn before tax, or a 6% increase in Gree s 218E PBT (Figure 1). Figure 1: Translation Impact of Gree s USD Holdings Dec. '18 RMB/USD Change from Dec. '17 (%) USD Net Cash Exposure Translation Impact 218 PBT 218 PBT Impact (%) 7.2 1% 38,91 3,537 34,53 11% 6.9 5% 37,141 1,769 32,762 6% 6.5 % 35,372 3,993 % 6.2-5% 33,64 (1,769) 29,224-6% 5.9-1% 31,835 (3,537) 27,456-11% Source: Company Reports, CGIS Research Note: Ignores hedging effects Exports to Benefit from RMB Depreciation In 217, Gree booked RMB18.4bn out of RMB15bn in sales to international markets. We understand that Gree currently operates one manufacturing plant outside of China. On this basis, we estimate the majority of Gree s total international sales are exports originating from mainland China. Theoretically, the appreciation of the USD for exports may result in higher revenues while overall RMB-based costs remain stable. The benefits accruing to Gree from export revenue will be adjusted since (i) only ~2% of Gree s exports are to the U.S. market. So while the majority of Gree s exports are priced in USD, local currency depreciation in end markets may limit Gree s ability to hold fixed prices in USD, and (ii) currency fluctuation in the past two months will mainly affect sales in 218H2 and 219. We sought to ascertain Gree s higher profitability from RMB depreciation. Based on our estimates, we see RMB depreciation of 5% from Dec. 217 levels benefiting Gree s PBT by ~RMB 2m in 218H2, or ~.7% of 218E s PBT. The impact on 219 will be greater due to the full-year impact. Figure 2: Incremental Impact on Exports Dec. '18 RMB/USD Change from Dec. '17 (%) A B C D A/C B/D 218H2 Impact 219 Impact 218 PBT 219 PBT 218 PBT Impact (%) 219 PBT Impact (%) 7.2 1% 424 97 31,417 36,926 1.4% 2.7% 6.9 5% 212 485 31,25 36,441.7% 1.3% 6.5 % 3,993 35,956 % % 6.2-5% (212) (485) 3,781 35,471 -.7% -1.3% 5.9-1% (424) (97) 3,569 34,986-1.4% -2.7% Source: Company Reports, CGIS Research Note: Ignores hedging effects 2
FINANCIAL MODEL Figure 3: Simplified Consolidated Statement of Profit and Loss Dec. Year End (RMB Mln) 216 217 218E 219E 22E Sales Revenue 11,113 15,2 178,252 23,787 223,364 COGS (72,886) (99,563) (119,521) (136,428) (149,592) Gross profit 37,227 5,457 58,731 67,359 73,772 Sale tax (1,43) (1,513) (1,798) (2,55) (2,253) Selling and distribution costs (16,477) (16,66) (19,796) (22,631) (24,85) General and administrative expenses (5,486) (6,71) (7,214) (8,247) (9,39) Others (94) (196) (196) (197) (197) Total EBIT 13,74 26,16 29,727 34,229 37,478 Depreciation & Amortisation 1,764 2,296 2,362 2,754 3,146 EBITDA 15,54 28,312 32,89 36,982 4,623 Interest expense (311) (819) (1,26) (751) (476) Interest income 1,484 2,25 2,291 2,478 2,727 Exchange gains/ losses 3,72 (1,63) Others (43) 819 Pre-Tax Profit 18,573 26,617 3,993 35,956 39,729 Tax Expense (3,7) (4,19) (4,649) (5,393) (5,959) Net Profit After Tax 15,566 22,59 26,344 3,562 33,77 Minority Interest 13 17 132 153 169 Earnings to Equity Owners 15,464 22,42 26,212 3,49 33,61 EPS (Basic) 2.57 3.72 4.36 5.5 5.59 EPS (Diluted) 2.57 3.72 4.36 5.5 5.59 DPS 1.8. 4.4 2.53 2.79 % YoY growth Revenue 9.5% 36.2% 18.8% 14.3% 9.6% Gross profit 7.8% 35.5% 16.4% 14.7% 9.5% EBIT 9.2% 89.3% 14.3% 15.1% 9.5% Net profit 23.4% 44.9% 17.% 16.% 1.5% Margins and ratios Gross profit margin 33.8% 33.6% 32.9% 33.1% 33.% EBITDA Margin 14.1% 18.9% 18.% 18.1% 18.2% EBIT Margin 12.5% 17.3% 16.7% 16.8% 16.8% Net Profit Margin 14.% 14.9% 14.7% 14.9% 15.% 3
Figure 4: Simplified Consolidated Statement of Financial Position Dec. Year End (RMB Mln) 216 217 218E 219E 22E Cash & Equivalents 96,5 1,694 18,84 119,645 13,5 Trade and other receivables 34,78 4,213 44,725 5,258 54,881 Inventories 9,25 16,568 16,6 17,432 19,115 Prepayments 1,815 3,718 3,718 3,718 3,718 Other current assets 1,993 1,342 1,342 1,342 1,342 Total current assets 142,915 171,535 184,188 21,396 218,555 Loans and advances 4,737 6,673 6,673 6,673 6,673 PPE, net 18,263 18,488 2,79 22,548 24,4 Intangible assets 3,355 3,64 4,22 4,429 4,827 Deferred tax assets 9,668 1,838 1,838 1,838 1,838 Other non-current assets 3,436 3,829 3,829 3,829 3,829 Total non-current assets 39,459 43,433 46,72 48,318 5,172 Total assets 182,374 214,968 23,26 249,713 268,727 Short-term borrowings 1,71 18,646 13,646 8,646 3,646 Prepayments 1,22 14,143 14,143 14,143 14,143 Notes payable 9,127 9,767 11,288 12,885 14,128 Accounts payable 29,541 34,553 38,18 43,581 47,786 Tax payable 3,126 3,99 3,99 3,99 3,99 Other payables 4,61 5,561 5,561 5,561 5,561 Other current liabilities 59,733 6,912 6,912 6,912 6,912 Total current liabilities 126,852 147,491 147,639 149,637 15,85 Long-term borrowings Other long term liabilities 57 642 642 642 642 Total non-current liabilities 57 642 642 642 642 Total liabilities 127,422 148,133 148,282 15,279 15,728 Shareholders Fund 53,972 65,595 8,66 97,91 116,36 Minority Interest 98 1,24 1,372 1,524 1,693 Total S/H Equity 54,952 66,835 81,978 99,434 117,999 Total Liab & S/H Fund 182,374 214,968 23,26 249,713 268,727 4
Figure 5: Simplified Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows Dec. Year End (RMB Mln) 216 217 218E 219E 22E Net Income 15,566 22,59 26,344 3,562 33,77 Depreciation & Amortization 1,764 2,296 2,362 2,754 3,146 Change in Working Capital (96) (6,883) 65 631 (856) Other Non Cash Adjustments (1,565) (1,564) Operating Cash Flow 14,86 16,359 29,311 33,947 36,59 Cash recovered from investment 3,441 4,3 Capex (3,277) (2,425) (5,) (5,) (5,) Cash spent on investment * (1,496) (12,42) Investments in Fixed Deposits** (17,914) (51,412) Investing Cashflow (19,247) (62,253) (5,) (5,) (5,) Dividend (ordinary) (9,18) (11,121) (11,21) (13,16) (15,25) Debt Movements 1,328 8,61 (5,) (5,) (5,) Others 2,1 251 Financing Cashflow (5,752) (2,269) (16,21) (18,16) (2,25) Total Cash Flow (1,138) (48,164) 8,11 1,841 1,855 Cash Flow Ex. Fixed Deposit Investment 7,776 3,247 8,11 1,841 1,855 Note: * Cash investment in WMPs, primarily booked in Other Current Assets ** Cash investment into fixed term deposits, which we regard as cash equivalents 5
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