600527 2007/03/08 ES 2007/03/08 RMB 10.18 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E 601.9 791.7 1076.4 1581.3 94.3 134.5 193.1 291.0 51.9 83.9 129.6 205.0 % 52.6% 61.6% 54.4% 58.2% 216 EPS ( ) 0.240 0.34 0.53 0.83 P/E(X) 42.42 29.94 19.20 12.27 A 105.3 % 17.9% 13.6% 19.60% 27.47% B N/A N/A A 10.72 2007 2000 06A (X) 6.79 06 1.50 EPS 06 0.24 % 0.79 TRACING P/E (X)* 42.42 * ES 6 ES 3 4 3000 24600 EPS 0.34 0.53 0.83 2007 14.06 2007 2009 41 26.5 16.9 2006/08/07 ES 52 2007/03/08 2006/10/15 400% 320% 2006/10/31 240% 2007/01/12 160% (021) 5840 6526 80% 0% -80% Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 Jan-07 Dec-06 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 1 / 12
600527 2007 2007 2000 2007 2000 2007 1950 1962 1987 2007 20 2016 1600 2000 1 2000 2500 2000 1500 1000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E ES 5 30 30 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 2 / 12
600527 ES PE/PP ES 1974 Chisso ES ES ES ES ES PP 15 20 ES ES ES 1 ES 95 ES 2 ES 2 3% 10 2 20 1 3% ES PP 10 20 2 SAP 3 15 ES 2 3 10 20 2 1% 3% 7% 15% 4% 43% SAP 27% EDANA http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 3 / 12
600527 ES ES 2005 45.8 12 400 60 70 ES ES 30 ES ES PP PP ES 1 2 2002 Pampers 31.5 Huggies 22.3 Moony 3.6 Kleen Bebe 2.5 Luvs 2.5 Libero SCA 2.2 Merries 1.7 Chicolastic Mabe 1.5 Dodot 1.4 Friend Daio Paper 1 20.8 Euromonitor http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 4 / 12
600527 ES 90 2005 61.4% 9.43% 1 6 6 60 60 1.5-1.7 ES 3 2005 83.83 73.43 40.24 3.4 26.9 21.5 399 79.6 3.51 16.1 29.1 1.87 ES ES 2004 1.5 2006 ES ES ES 2006 1.5 3 4 2007 4 3 2007 3 8 1.5 3 4 2007 3 8 11 ES 5 3 3 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 5 / 12
600527 ES 2006 4 5 ES 2 ES Chisso Huvis Fiber Vision ES ES ES 1 ES 1.5 1.5 ES 2 50 ES 3 ES 10 ES 2 3 2 3 11 ES 5 ES 50 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 6 / 12
600527 2007 15 PTT 51 2009 ES ES PET/COPET 2006 7.4 20.8% 3 ES PE/PP PE/PET (Chisso) Fiber Vision Celbond PET/COPET Kosa Huvis) Heterofil PA/COPA ICI 1 2007 2009 3250 4480 6960 2600 2630 3670 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 7 / 12
600527 2 3 3000 24,600 4 2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E 2 11 10 11 11 21 28 30 35 37 2 14 29 54 ES 4 21 31 62 1 5 20 38 3 7 3 3 3 8 34 52 84 130 205 0.24 0.24 0.34 0.53 0.83 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.00 0.03 0.16 0.33 0.63 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 14.06 V 2007 D2007 D D2009 + P = + + 1+ r (1 + (1 + r 1 2008 2 r2 ) 2009 3 3) 20 25 2009 20 PE-DDM 2007 14.06 2007 2009 41 26.5 16.9 5 PE-DDM 2007E 2008E 2009E 8390 12960 20500 62% 54% 58% EPS 0.34 0.53 0.83 40% 40% 30% ) 0.11 0.17 0.20 10% 0.11 0.2 0.16 0.43 2009 16.6(20X) 13.72 14.06 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 8 / 12
600527 1 2 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 9 / 12
600527 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 601.9 791.7 1076.4 1581.3 507.6 657.3 883.3 1290.3 94.3 134.5 193.1 291.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.1 8.1 12.9 17.4 5.8 11.5 15.4 20.0 5.7 3.3 6.0 9.2 80.2 112.1 159.2 244.9 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.6 113.1 159.2 244.9 : 25.7 26.0 26.3 36.7 : 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.2 51.9 83.9 129.6 205.0 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 108.3 239.5 324.9 476.4 16.8 28.6 34.3 53.8 105.9 136.0 184.3 270.7 39.9 110.6 127.2 170.8 270.8 514.7 670.7 971.7 216.9 245.4 271.5 295.1 25.5 24.7 23.8 23.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 514.6 786.1 967.4 1291.1 85.0 174.6 273.1 388.2 24.9 165.0 158.2 208.2 64.2 61.4 83.3 136.8 174.3 401.3 515.1 733.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 174.4 401.4 515.2 733.8 17.0 19.6 22.3 24.8 323.3 365.2 430.0 532.5 514.7 786.2 967.5 1291.2 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 51.9 83.9 129.6 205.0 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.6 15.6 22.3 24.8 27.3 (0.4) 1.1 0.6 1.7 6.9 3.3 6.0 9.2 /( ) (9.1) (30.2) (48.3) (86.4) 0.0 (70.7) (16.7) (43.6) /( ) (57.1) 140.1 (6.8) 50.0 /( 76.6 (12.9) (6.3) (21.2) /( ) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 (0.1) (2.8) 21.9 53.5 87.3 136.8 107.7 198.2 /( ) (0.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 50.0 50.0 50.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 (9.2) (50.0) (50.0) (50.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (6.9) (3.3) (6.0) (9.2) /( ) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.7 42.0 64.8 102.5 (15.0) 89.6 98.5 115.0 6.9 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (39.7) 44.4 27.7 3.3 / 38.3 131.2 85.4 151.5 68.0 106.3 237.5 322.9 106.2 237.5 322.9 474.4 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E ROE 16.1% 23.0% 30.1% 38.5% ROA 10.1% 10.7% 13.4% 15.9% 14.92x 35.13x 27.41x 27.52x 33.9% 51.1% 53.3% 56.8% 155.4% 128.3% 130.2% 132.4% / 42.1% 31.2% 28.1% 22.9% http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 10 / 12
600527 ( 2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E 109 96 102 107 107 166 174 189 198 208 230 219 200 200 200 32 80 159 279 ES 76 179 258 498 11 42 154 289 2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E 101 76 84 89 89 128 123 134 141 148 224 207 194 194 194 27 61 120 209 ES 67 149 214 413 11 42 154 289 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E 14000 14500 14500 14500 ( 9000 9500 10000 10000 1215 3000 6000 10500 ES 6075 14400 20720 40000 810 3000 10900 20500 29% 29% 29% 29% 21% 17% 17% 17% 15% 23% 25% 25% ES 11% 17% 17% 17% 12% 18% 18% 18% http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 11 / 12
6 10% 6-10% 10% 6 10% 5047 10 518001 TEL: (86-755) 8249 2080 FAX: (86-755) 8249 3318 E-MAIL: LZRD@LHZQ.COM 161 34 200121 TEL: (86-21) 5840 6452 FAX: (86-21) 5840 6254 E-MAIL: LZRD@LHZQ.COM 2007 http:// 219.133.104.135/ibase 12 / 12