公司 / 行业动态 2016 年 5 月 4 日 中国 TMT 行业最新动态 中国银河证券 VR/AR 研讨会纪要分析员 : 布家杰, CFA; 电话 : (852) 3698 6318; markpo@chinastock.com.hk VR/AR 仍然是热门的投资主题 现时, 互联网 + 人工智能和 VR/AR 均是中国 TMT 行业的热点话题 在 4 月, 中国银河证券于在上海和北京举办了 VR/AR 产业研讨会, 与会的人仕包括政府人员 硬件开发商 内容提供商 一家互联网巨头 一家电竞平台经营商, 以及主题公园和 VR 体验店的经营商 中国银河证券电子板块研究团队认为, 总体而言,VR/AR 产业尚需要一段时间才会起飞, 而现时是市场从 B 端应用转移到 C 端应用的临界点 VR/AR 产业存在宽阔的供应链, 为许多中国企业包括零部件供货商 主题公园和 VR 体验店运营商带来增长潜力 硬件方面,ODM 芯片 AMOLED 微型投影仪 传感器 摄像机和光学透镜区域等方面的供货商, 将有不俗的增长空间 在内容制作方面, 游戏和视频这两个领域将会更广泛地采用 VR 技术 集成游戏开发商 网吧 VR 体验店和主题公园运营商将在短期内呈现爆发性增长 硬件的发展正吸引市场关注 硬件的发展是整个 VR/AR 行业的关键,IT 巨头如 Vive, Oculus, GearVR and Hololens 均正在推出 VR 硬件 中国银河证券 VR/AR 产业研讨会的所有与会者均认为,VR/AR 产业仍处于发展的早期阶段 在中国,VR 的发展比 AR 快, 这是由于硬件的可用性所致 尽管一些硬件开发商早在 2010 年就开始研发 VR 技术, 但目前市场规模仍然较小 领先的硬件开发商认为, 目前用于 B2B 应用的 VR 技术还处于早期阶段, 其将需要几年时间才会变得更成熟 一些通过 360 度镜头产生的 VR 内容并不能给用家带来身临其境的沉浸感 VR 生态系统的建立需要硬件和软件同时配合 与其他电子产品如穿戴式设备相比, 市场 ( 包括业内人士和投资界 ) 相信 VR/AR 可带来良好的用户体验, 这将引领 VR/AR 产业起飞 硬件及内容开发商均在共同合作建立产业生态系统 与 VR 相比, AR 对硬件要求更高, 因为 AR 产业将需要更长时间才迎来爆发式增长 中国的电竞市场正在迅速增长 游戏 视频 教育 旅游等领域均在加快采用 VR 技术 视频中的 VR 技术应用较不依赖于硬件, 因此预期视频市场的 VR 内容将呈爆发式增长 VR 硬件正在日益普及, 这将增加对 VR 内容的需求 有电竞平台的管理层表示, 中国有 4,000 个电子竞技比赛, 涉及的奖金池达到 6,500 万美元 (4.21 亿元人民币 ) 用于电竞的 VR 技术有巨大的发展潜力 该电竞平台将投资于线下网点, 如一家 VR 体验店和一家电竞俱乐部, 以推动电竞 VR 产品和服务 然而, 目前没有太多与 AR 相关的内容 中国的 VR 体验店和主题公园也在快速增长 一位电影制片人表示, 将投资于一系列有 VR 内容的电影 每部电影的投资成本高达 4,000 万元至 3 亿元人民币, 但该公司认为 IP 衍生内容 (VR) 和产品 ( 玩具 ) 将会产生良好的回报 自 2016 年开始, 上海便有经营该部电影的 VR 体验店 根据其进行的调查及运营统计数据,VR 对店铺访客而言仍是一个很新的概念 约 59% 的访客表示有兴趣购买 VR 硬件 约 67% 的访客指 VR 的游戏带来良好的用家体验, 整体评价为 8.6 分 现时每天也有几十个访客到现场买票, 反映中国用家对 VR 内容十分感到兴趣 该电影制片人还收到了关于展开商业合作的查询, 对方希望合作利用 VR 技术生产用于教育 培训和展览目的的 VR 内容 一家本土硬件开发商表示, 线下渠道如 VR 体验店和主题公园, 对于推广 VR/AR 产品十分重要, 因为在发展早期,VR/AR 硬件十分昂贵 然而, 对于只为个别访客提供服务的小型 VR 体验店来说, 要实现增长十分困难, 因为它们不能向访客提供互动体验 如果体验店要为访客提供良好的用家体验, 无线通信 高频率和高分辨率显示器 精确的定位系统都是不可缺少 体验店能够以店铺面积分类 : 一 ) 面积小于 15 平方米的入面店 ; 二 )15 至 50 平方米, 这对多名玩家同时进行的游戏或其它内容而言, 这面积有点小 ; 三 )30 平方米, 投资成本为 60 万元人民币 ; 四 )50-1,600 平方米, 它可以在同一时间向所有访客提供互动体验 1
Analyst: Mark Po, CFA; Tel: (852) 3698 6318; markpo@chinastock.com.hk May 4, 2016 VR/AR remains a hot investment theme. Internet Plus, Artificial Intelligence and VR/AR are hot topics in China s Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) sector. China Galaxy Securities held a Virtual Reality (VR) & Augmented Reality (AR) Industry Conference in Shanghai and Beijing in April 2016, attracting participants from government, hardware developers, content providers, an internet giant, an esports platform, and theme park and VR experience store operators. The China Galaxy Securities electronics team believes that it will take time for the VR/AR industry as a whole to take off and that now is the critical point to switch from the B-side applications to the C-side market. The whole VR/AR industry has a wide supply chain, which offers growth potential for many Chinese companies, including component suppliers, and theme park and VR experience store operators. On the hardware side, suppliers in areas such as ODM, chips, AMOLED, micro-projectors, sensors, cameras and optical lenses have room to grow. Games and videos are two areas that will see faster adoption of VR technology within the content production segment. Integrated game developers, internet cafes, VR experience stores and theme park operators will see explosive growth in the near term. Hardware development is attracting market attention. Hardware development is critical for the whole VR/AR industry, and the leading IT companies, such as Vive, Oculus, GearVR and Hololenshave, been releasing VR hardware. All participants in the China Galaxy Securities VR/AR Industry Conference agreed that the whole VR/AR Industry is still at an early stage of development. Development of VR is faster than that of AR in China, given the availability of hardware. Despite the fact that some hardware developers started R&D on VR technology as early as 2010, the market is relative small at this stage. The leading hardware developers believe that the current VR technology for B2B applications is at an early stage and that it will take several years for it to become more mature. The quality of some VR contents produced through 360-degree cameras can t give users a true sense of immersion. The building of the VR ecosystem requires both hardware and software. Compared with other electronics products, such as wearable devices, the market, including both industry players and the investment community, believes that VR/AR industry will take off as VR/AR-based products offer a good user experience. Both hardware and content developers are working together to build up the ecosystem. Hardware requirements are much higher for AR development than for VR, so AR take-off will take much longer. esport is growing fast in China. Games, videos, education and tourism are areas which will see faster adoption of VR technology. The application of VR technology in videos is less dependent on hardware, so the video segment is expected to report explosive growth in VR-based content. The increasing popularity of VR hardware will create demand for VR content. According to the management of the esports platform, there were 4,000 esports matches in China with a total prize pool of US$65m (RMB421m). There is huge potential for VR-based esports. The esports platform will invest in offline outlets such as a VR experience store and an esports club to promote VR-based esports products and services. However, there is not much AR-related content at this stage. The experience store and theme park segment in China is also growing fast. One film producer said it will invest in a series of films with VR content. The investment cost per film ranges from RMB40m to RMB300m, but the Company believes that the IP derivate content (VR) and products (toys) will generate worthwhile returns. The film has also operated a VR experience store in Shanghai since beginning of 2016. Based on a survey it conducted and operating statistics, VR is still a very new concept to its visitors. About 59% of visitors expressed interest in buying VR hardware. About 67% of visitors replied that VR-based games offered a good user experience, with an overall rating of 8.6. There are dozens of visitors buying tickets on-site every day, which indicates there is keen interest in VR-based content in China. The film producer also received enquiries from potential business partners regarding the use of VR technology in producing VR based-content for education, training and exhibition purposes. According to a local hardware developer, offline channels, such as VR experience stores and theme parks, are critical for promoting VR/AR based products and content given the expensive hardware at the early stage of development. However, it is difficult for smallscale VR experience stores which offer service only to individual visitors to grow as they can t offer an interactive experience among visitors. Wireless communication, high-frequency and high-resolution displays and accurate positioning systems are required to offer a good user experience to visitors. Experience stores can be classified by floor area: a) entry grade stores with a floor area less than 15m 2, b) 15-50m 2, which is a bit small for multi-user games or other content, c) floor area of about 30m 2, with an investment cost of RMB600,000, and d) 50-1,600m 2 which can offer an interactive experience to all visitors at the same time. 2
Analyst: Mark Po, CFA; Tel: (852) 3698 6318; markpo@chinastock.com.hk May 4, 2016 The AR industry is also growing fast in China. According to an AR platform in China, there were over 300 enterprises and 54,000 individual AR developers registered as at the end of Dec 2015. The AR platform was established in 2012 to promote AR in China through co-operation with overseas AR participants, such as Total Immersion, Metaio and Yuforia. The AR platform has reported a significant increase in the number of partners since 2015. It formed a strategic alliance with Lenovo and became the advisor to a VR/AR international education platform in China. AR development in China is more hardware-related at this stage. The CPUs used in AR products are either x86 based or ARM based. AR glass products are still at premature stage, and hardware developers include Google, Vuzix, Lenovo, IV Glass and Realmax. AR development is not as hot as VR in China at this stage, but the AR platform believes that AR has huge potential and is a more natural extension of the smartphone. Since smartphones are replacing PCs, AR development will offer more upside than VR in the long run. Government policy is supportive. An official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) highlighted that VR/AR industry development is an important part of artificial intelligence development in China, and that the VR/AR industry is expected to generate annual sales of over RMB100bn eventually. The MIIT began pushing VR/AR in 2014, studying 3D technology, which offers a highly immersive feeling and a greater visual and auditory impact for users. The MIIT is supporting other ministries to formulate a policy to promote the development of VR technology. The MIIT proposed that VR/AR technology development be part of the government s Internet Plus policy. The MIIT is also formulating a policy to encourage innovation in VR/AR hardware development. Through these measures, the MIIT wants to push the government to strengthen its focus on the VR industry. VR technology development started in the 1960 s and has been adopted in military, aviation/aerospace and some systems platforms. Now, with recent advances in hardware and software, VR technology has been applied in consumer products. VR is a hot topic in China, and there are over 300 companies involved in it. The MIIT believes that there is great potential for improvement in VR hardware. The MIIT has visited some of the VR equipment and component manufacturers and shares the view that the local supply chain needs further technical breakthroughs. VR content is relatively scarce in China, given the high production costs. To promote the development of the VR industry, the MIIT will formulate an industry standard and introduce private capital. The MIIT believes that standards and policies are critical for the development of the VR industry in China. Chinese suppliers have an advantage in component manufacturing. Some of the participants believe that US companies are still the leaders in VR/AR technology, and that Chinese companies will have a competitive advantage only when VR technology becomes more mature. In terms of manufacturing and assembly, Vive and Oculus are manufactured in China. Chinese companies have advantages in some components, but the supply chain as a whole is not as competitive as that of other countries. However, China is a sizeable market, which can support local hardware developers. China also has a good telecommunications infrastructure, which forms a good foundation for building up a VR ecosystem. At this stage, there are no AR-related names listed in HK, where AR technology development lags behind VR technology. We see increasing adoption of VR technology in different areas, such as entertainment (games, films and video), education and exhibitions. Potential beneficiaries of the take-off of the VR/AR industry as a whole include hardware manufacturers (components, PC-based and other headsets), content producers, solutions providers, and experience store and theme park operators. Government policy is also supportive to the development of VR/AR-related products and services, as MIIT is taking the lead in formulating policy for promoting the VR/AR industry. Shares of VR-related names have performed well recently despite a broad-based market correction, given the increasing market attention. The VR-related names are expected to continue to outperform the market given supportive government policy and increasing investment in VR technology by Chinese companies, including both hardware and software. HK-listed VR plays include China Animation [1566.HK], Digital Domain [0547.HK], Net Dragon [0777.HK], Sunny Optical [2382.HK], Truly [0732.HK] and Tencent [0700.HK]. China Animation is an experienced store operator in China. Digital Domain is a content provider. We might see a breakthrough in video by Digital Domain, as the online video platforms are getting more aggressive in attracting traffic. We expect Digital Domain to release its corporate strategy and roadmap in the coming months, which will attract market attention. Net Dragons is building a VR library that owns VR content for educational purposes and for enhancing the learning experience. Net Dragons also increased its stake in a VR technology company, AHRT, which owns the leading technology in digital human holograms. Net Dragons formed a JV with AHRT in selected Asia-Pacific markets. Net Dragons plans to adopt AHRT s VR technology to enrich its online game and education solution offerings. On the hardware side, Sunny Optical is the module supplier for HTC s Vive, which will be one of the major beneficiaries of increasing demand for VR hardware. Truly has first-mover advantage in AMOLED technology, and the Company s AMOLED production line will commence production later this year. Truly will invest further in expanding its AMOLED capacity going forward. Truly is also one of the beneficiaries of increasing shipments of fingerprint sensors. Tencent is developing in-house VR hardware and the Company is a mobile game publisher and distributor with a dominant market share. 3
September 30, 2015 Figure 1: Peer comparison Ticker Company PE EV/EBITDA P/B ROE ROA Div yield Share Price Performance Price Market Cap 2016F 2017F 2018F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2015 2016F 2015 2016F 2015 2016F 2015 2016F 1M 3M 6M 12M Lcy US$m x x x x x x x x % % % % % % % % % % 547 HK Digital Domain Holdings Ltd 0.67 932 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.6 n.a. 17.8 n.a. -13.6 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 31.4 65.4 69.6-38.5 1566 HK China Animation Characters C 2.71 300 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.2 n.a. 215.7 n.a. 16.6 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 5.0-21.0-8.4-4.4 300458 CH All Winner Technology Co L-A 24.00 3,394 20.3 16.2 13.2 14.1 11.3 9.0 5.7 4.7 18.6 25.4 11.5 13.6 1.0 1.4 10.9 45.1 37.9 37.3 002241 CH Goertek Inc -A 3.04 1,139 10.2 9.7 8.6 6.0 5.9 5.6 1.2 1.1 16.0 11.2 4.6 4.6 2.3 3.3 49.8 73.7 62.6-18.5 002036 CH Hemp Industrial Investment-A 24.20 1,538 n.a. 140.5 183.9 49.5 56.6 73.7 2.3 2.4 3.8 2.1-2.7 1.6 1.2 0.6 11.8 23.1 11.5-2.6 000829 CH Telling Telecommunication-A 13.32 1,969 76.1 45.9 26.1 29.6 21.2 17.2 6.4 4.2 0.8 5.8-2.1 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 9.0 9.0 22.4-27.8 002189 CH Lida Optical & Electronic -A 27.82 855 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.6 n.a. 2.7 n.a. 2.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. -17.2 10.6 11.5-15.2 002273 CH Zhejiang Crystal-Optech -A 30.73 2,069 53.0 39.4 39.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.9 4.7 12.1 8.2 6.3 7.5 n.a. 0.8-12.1 2.6 27.9 18.5 002280 CH Hangzhou Liaison Interact-A 19.71 6,617 72.2 50.8 35.8 57.8 43.8 n.a. 7.4 11.0 31.2 28.5 9.4 26.6 n.a. 0.4-20.4 41.8 16.3-21.0 300431 CH Beijing Baofeng Technology-A 71.38 3,025 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 30.6 n.a. 15.8 n.a. 19.2 n.a. 0.0 n.a. -35.4-25.5-25.5 41.0 000793 CH Huawen Media Investment -A 9.15 2,894 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.1 n.a. 17.3 n.a. 7.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.7 6.4-18.7-43.0 300113 CH Hangzhou Shunwang Tech-A 88.94 4,130 59.9 46.5 n.a. 51.5 37.7 n.a. 13.1 21.8 16.4 35.3 16.9 24.6 n.a. 0.3 3.6 31.7 81.8 51.5 002751 CH Shenzhen Esun Display Co L-A 72.02 1,560 205.8 151.6 105.1 98.0 84.9 79.3 23.2 20.8 14.6 10.2 3.7 3.6 0.1 0.0-19.6-17.7 29.0 617.0 300079 CH Sumavision Technologies Co-A 8.80 1,870 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.8 n.a. 6.5 n.a. 5.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. -12.2 7.6-13.9-11.5 002253 CH Wisesoft Co Ltd -A 52.95 1,228 98.4 97.5 94.6 67.9 55.0 43.6 6.2 6.0 1.3 3.7 2.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.8 61.1 40.5 28.6 300458 CH All Winner Technology Co L-A 71.11 1,754 40.9 30.4 23.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.4 6.4 11.2 16.1 8.6 13.7 0.3 n.a. -6.5-6.9-16.5 n.a. 002241 CH Goertek Inc -A 28.67 6,748 24.8 19.9 16.9 16.5 13.6 11.5 4.5 4.0 22.6 16.7 6.8 8.9 n.a. 0.5 15.2 4.7 13.0-12.5 002036 CH Lianchuang Electronic Tech-A 20.33 1,866 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.5 n.a. 25.6 n.a. 9.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. -19.3 3.2 11.0 136.7 HSI Index 3.4 7.0-7.7-25.8 HSCEI Index 2.4 8.5-14.4-38.8 SHCOMP Index 0.6 7.3-13.3-34.4 Sources: Bloomberg, CGIS Research 4
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