神州控股 [86.HK] 7 年业绩低于预期 ; 公司仍处于投资阶段 神州控股 7 年业绩被非现金项目所影响 若撇除非现金项目的影响, 公司业绩低于我们的预期, 原因是 :a) 营业额增长低于预期 ;b) 其他费用高于预期 公司管理层在业绩发布会中指出, 凭借公司的数据资源和能力, 公司正在将业务模式转变至数据技术服务提供商 在数据技术应用方面, 公司管理层表示看到医疗 农业 政府 金融和制造等行业具有增长潜力 鉴于公司在银行业务领域的领先地位, 神州信息或将较专注于金融科技板块 银行业不断增加对数据技术的投资, 将为神州信息带来增长机会 我们认为神州控股 / 神州信息是中国投资者熟悉的 IT 公司 然而, 尽管管理层提到不需要进一步拨备, 但我们仍认为核数师对神州控股 7 年业绩的保留意见将带来不确定性 管理层在 7 年业绩中没有披露更多有关核数师保留意见的信息 我们将评级从买入下调至持有, 最新目标价为. 港元 ( 基于 倍 8 年市盈率 ) 下调目标价是由于下调了目标市盈率( 从 9 倍降至 倍 ) 以及下调核心净利润预测所致 投资亮点 7 年业绩亮点 : 神州控股于 7 年录得净亏损. 亿港元, 弱于我们预期的净亏损.7 亿港元 若撇除特殊及一次性项目, 公司 7 年净利润为. 亿港元 7 年上半年净亏损. 亿港元 ( 股份形式开支约.8 亿港元, 而理财金融产品的建议拨备约.8 亿港元 ) 若撇除这些一次性项目, 神州控股于 7 年上半年录得净利润约 8, 万港元及于 7 年下半年录得净利润约,8 万港元 公司 7 年销售额约.7 亿港元, 同比上升 8.%, 主要是受到新业务营业额同比增长 % 推动, 以及供应链管理业务营业额同比增长 8.% 所致 公司 7 年毛利为 6.6 亿港元, 同比增长 6.% 神州信息 7 年营业额同比增长.%, 较 7 年上半年的同比下降有所改善 公司于 7 年下半年出现复苏, 但幅度弱于我们预期, 且下半年经营表现逊于 7 年上半年 我们认为,7 年业绩低于预期是由于销售及管理费用高于预期 由于大多数 IT 服务公司的 7 年下半年业绩强劲, 故神州控股下半年表现转弱的情况令人颇失望 尽管经营业绩偏弱, 但主要的负面因素是其核数师对 7 年业绩作出保留意见, 因为公司 6 亿港元的理财产品投资于 7 年已到期偿还但尚未结算, 而审计师未能获得足够的审计证据以评估相关应收款项可回收金额及相关减值拨备是否足够 根据神州控股的公告, 公司正在与与对方磋商解决方案, 但并未达成结论 公司已对应收款项进行可收回性的评估及已计提减值拨备约.8 亿港元 在 7 年业绩会上, 公司管理层提到 7 年上半年所作的拨备已足够, 但是没有提供进一步的细节 理财产品是从一家大型国有金融机构的附属公司购买的 我们认为, 除非公司增长前景明朗和有更多关于 6 亿元人民币理财产品的细节, 否则投资者或继续对公司抱持观望态度 下调盈利预测 我们下调 8 年的净利润预测, 并引入 9 年盈利预测 我们预计公司将在 8 年实现净利润, 对比 7 年录得净亏损 然而, 由于营业额增长放缓和盈利能力下降, 我们将 8 年的盈利预测下调 6.% 若投资理财产品需要额外拨备, 将明显拖累 8 年业绩 8 年 月 日 TMT 行业软件持有 ( 此前为买入 ) 收盘价 :. 港元 (8 年 月 9 日 ) 目标价 :. 港元 (.%) 股价表现 (HK$) (HK$ million) 7 6 8 6 Mar7 May7 Jul7 Sep7 Nov7 Jan8 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) 来源 : 彭博 市值 9. 亿美元 已发行股数 6.67 亿股 核数师 Ernst & Young 自由流通量 8.7% 周交易区间.96-6.6 港元 三个月日均成交量 6 万美元 主要股东 广州市城市建设投资 集团有限公司 (.%) 郭为 (.%) Key 主要财务指标 Financials ( 百万港元 (in HKDm) ) * 6* 7* 8E* 9E* 收入变动 ( 同比 %) 毛利润毛利润率 (%) 净利润净利润率 (%) 每股收益 ( 基本 ) 变动 ( 同比 %) 每股股息 Revenue,6.7,.,6.6 6,6. 8,88. Change (YoY %) (.). 8..6. Gross Profit,6.,.7,66.,.8,7. Gross Margin %.8.. 9. 9.6 Net Profit 66.7 89. (.).6. Net Margin % 6.. (.).. EPS (Basic).8 (.) (9.)..6 Change (YoY %) (6.9) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. DPS $. $. $. $. $. 净资产收益率 (%) 股息收益率 (%) 市盈率 ( 倍 ) 市净率 ( 倍 ) 自由现金流收益率 (%) ROE (%) 7.6.9 (.).6.6 Dividend Yield (%) - 7. - - - PER (x).7 n.a. n.a..8 6.8 PBR (x)..7.8.8.8 FCF Yield (%) 8.68% -.% -9.%.7% 8.% 资本开支 ( 百万元 ) 每股自由现金流净负债比率 (%) Capex (m) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Free cash flow per share.6 (.) (.).. Net Gearing (%). 69.... 布家杰, CFA 高级分析员 (8) 698-68 markpo@chinastock.com.hk 王志文,CFA 研究部主管 (8) 698-67 cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 来源 : 彭博, 中国银河国际证券研究部, *: 年数据只有第二至第四季数字, - 年数据包括公司的持续经营业务以及计划出售的已终止的硬件分销 业务 ;6-7 年的预测仅包括持续经营业务
DC Holdings [86.HK] Lower-than-expected 7 results. Still in investment mode. DC Holdings (DCH) 7 results were distorted by non-cash items. Excluding the impact of non-cash items, the results were below our expectations due to: a) slower-than-expected turnover growth, and b) higher-than-expected other expenses. During the 7 results presentation, DCH management highlighted that the Company s business model is evolving toward Data Technology service providers, backed by data resources and capabilities. Regarding the application of Data Technology, DCH management mentioned that the Company sees growth potential in sectors such as healthcare, agriculture, government, finance and manufacturing. DCITS is likely to focus more on the fintech segment, given the Company s leading position in the banking segment. The increasing investment in data technology by the banking sector will offer growth opportunities for DCITS. We share the view that DCH/DCITS are well-recognized IT-related names among Chinese investors. However, we still believe that the auditor s qualified opinion of DCH s 7 results will continue to create uncertainty despite the fact that management mentioned that no further provision was required. No further information regarding the auditor s qualified opinion was disclosed by management during the 7 results presentation. We downgrade our recommendation from BUY to HOLD with a new target price of HK$. (based on a x 8E PER). The downward revision of our target price is due to the lower target PER multiple used (from 9x to x) and a cut in core net profit forecasts. Investment Highlights 7 results highlights. DCH reported a net loss of HK$m in 7, weaker than our expectation of a net loss of HK$7m for 7. Excluding the impact of exceptional and one-off items, DCH s net profit was HK$.m for 7. DCH reported a net loss of HK$m in H 7 (due to share-based payment expenses of approximately HK$8m and the proposed provision of approximately HK$8m for wealth management financial products). Excluding the effects of these one-off items, DCH would have recorded a net profit of about HK$8m in H 7 and about HK$8m in H 7. DCH s turnover was about HK$,7m in 7, up 8.% YoY, driven mainly by a % YoY increase in turnover in new business and a 8.% YoY increase in turnover of its supply chain management business. DCH s gross profit amounted to HK$,66m in 7, representing YoY growth of 6.%. DCITS s turnover grew.% YoY in 7 which improved from a YoY decline in H 7. DCH did report a turnaround in H 7, but the magnitude was weaker than we expected, and operating performance was weaker in H 7 than in H 7. The weaker-than-expected 7 results, in our view, were due to higher-thanexpected S,G&A expenses. DC Holdings weaker H 7 performance is somewhat disappointing, as most of the other IT services companies reported strong H 7 performance. Despite the weaker operating performance, the major negative surprise was that its auditor issued a qualified opinion on DC Holdings 7 results, as the HK$.6bn investment in wealth management products were due for redemption in 7 but have not been settled, and the auditor was not able to obtain sufficient audit evidence to judge whether the provisions were sufficient. According to DC Holdings announcement, the Company is in discussion with counterparties, but no conclusion has been reached, and DC Holdings provided only HK$8m in P&L A/C. During the 7 results presentation, DCH management mentioned that the provision made in H 7 was sufficient. However, no further details were provided. The wealth management products were purchased from an affiliate of a large, state-owned financial institution. We believe that unless there is clarity on the growth outlook for the Company and the RMB.6bn investment in wealth management products, investors are likely to stay on sidelines regarding DC Holdings. Downward earnings adjustment. We cut our net profit forecasts for 8 and introduce 9E earnings forecasts. We expect DCH to report a net profit in 8 vs. a net loss in 7. However, we cut our earnings for 8 by 6.% due to slower turnover growth and lower profitability. Any extra provisions required for the investment in wealth management products will drag down the 8 results substantially. Key Financials (in HKDm) * 6* 7* 8E* 9E* Revenue,6.7,.,6.6 6,6. 8,88. Change (YoY %) (.). 8..6. Gross Profit,6.,.7,66.,.8,7. Gross Margin %.8.. 9. 9.6 Net Profit 66.7 89. (.).6. Net Margin % 6.. (.).. EPS (Basic).8 (.) (9.)..6 Change (YoY %) (6.9) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. DPS $. $. $. $. $. ROE (%) 7.6.9 (.).6.6 Dividend Yield (%) - 7. - - - PER (x).7 n.a. n.a..8 6.8 PBR (x)..7.8.8.8 FCF Yield (%) 8.68% -.% -9.%.7% 8.% Mark Po, CFA Senior Analyst (8) 698-68 markpo@chinastock.com.hk Wong Chi Man, CFA Head of Research (8) 698-67 TMT Sector Software HOLD (downgrade from BUY) Close: HK$. (Mar 9, 8) Target Price: HK$. (.%) Share Price Performance (HK$) 7 6 Source: Bloomberg. Market Cap cmwong@chinastock.com.hk US$9m Shares Outstanding,667m Auditor Ernst & Young Free Float 8.7% W range M average daily T/O Major Shareholding April, 8 Mar7 May7 Jul7 Sep7 Nov7 Jan8 Turnover (RHS) Price (LHS) (HK$ million) 8 6 HK$.96-6.6 US$.6m GZ Construction Group (.%) Mr. Guo Wei (.%) Capex (m) (.) (.) (.) (.) (.) Free cash flow per share.6 (.) (.).. Net Gearing (%). 69.... Source: Bloomberg, CGIS Research, *: Only -Q data available for ; - data include the company s continuing operations as well as discontinuing hardware distribution business which was planned to be sold; forecasts for 6-7 only include its continuing operations.
Figure : Key assumptions for DCH 6 7 8F 9F Turnover (HKD m) Distribution 7,66.8 6,. n.a n.a n.a. n.a. Supply chain,.,6.6,99.,8.,.9,88.8,. Systems,68. 7,68. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. IT services 9,. 7,6.7 8,.8 8,6. 9,8.6 9,.,9. Internet finance 6.9 8. 6.9 79. 9. Smart City Operation 66.. 8.. Total 7,99.,6.8,6.,6.7,.,6.6 6,6. YoY Change (%) Distribution (.) (.) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Supply chain (.) 7.9 (7.) 8. 8. 8.7 Systems (.) (.) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. IT services (8.9)...9. 7. Internet finance n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.. Smart City Operation n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.. Total (8.9) (76.7) (.). 8..6 Gross margin (%) 6...8.. 9. 9.6 Distribution... n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Supply chain 8. 6.6.9.9.9.9.9 Systems 9. 9. 9. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. IT services 8.. 9..6... Internet finance 6. 9. 7. 7. 7. 7. Smart City Operation...... Net margin (%)..8 6.. (.).. Cost (HKD m) Cost of Sales (8,88.9) (,) (8,) (9,78) (,8) (,8) (,8) S,G&A (,.) (,78.9) (,89.) (,7.) (,6.) (,9.7) (,.8) Financial Expenses (78.7) (6.8) (7.7) (97.) (.) (7.) (96.) YoY Change (%) Cost of Sales (78.9) (8.).8 n.a. 6.. R&D (.) 7.8. n.a. (.). Financial Expenses (66.). 67. n.a. 7. 9.7 CAPEX (HKD m) 9.9 67...... Net Gearing (%) 7.7 6.6. 69.... Turnover breakdown of DCITS (DC's IT Services segment) (HKD m) 7,. 9,8.6 9,.,69.,9.9,6. System integration,99.7,86.,7.,88.,9.7,8.6 Technology consultation,9.8,7.9,.,.,6.,. Software development 88.,8.,9.,7.8,9.,99. Financial IT 79..8 7.9 7.8 9.6. Agricultural informatization.. 7.. 69.8 99.7 Turnover breakdown of Supply Chain Management (HKD m) E-commerce 9.9 89.9,.7,87.,9.7,8.7 Logistic 8.6,.9,8.8,67.,988.,86. Maintanence 7.6. 8. 8. 8. 8. Source: Company, CGIS Research
Figure : Earnings projection Income Statement (HKDm) FY* FY6* FY7* FY8F* FY9F* Cash Flow Statement (RMBm) FY* FY6* FY7* FY8F* FY9F* Revenue,6,,7 6,6 8,88 Net Income 68 6 7 86 968 Growth yoy% (.%).% 8.%.6%.% Depreciation & Amort. 7 Gross Profit,6,,66,,7 Change in Working Capital, () () () Growth yoy% 9.7%.% 6.%.%.9% Cash from Ops., 98 7 886 Selling General & Admin Exp. (,89) (,7) (,6) (,9) (,) Capital Expenditure () () () () () Others Operating Expenses/Items Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment - - - - - Operating Income 6 () (96) 7 Change in Investing Acitivities (,99),9 77 () (,) Growth yoy% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a..% Cash from Investing (,9),99 7 () (,) Interest Expense (7.7) (97.) (.) (7.) (96.) Net increase in bank borrowings Interest and Invest. Income Income/(Loss) from Affiliates 88. 8. 78.6 96. 6. Issuance of Common Stock Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) 6. 9.6 Common Dividends Paid () (,9) Impairment of Goodwill - - - - - Special Dividend Paid - - - - - Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Invest. - - - - - Other Financing Activities (,9) 778 (78) 98 7 Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets - - - - - Cash from Financing (,) (,6) (78) 98 7 Income Tax Expense (7) (9) () () () Minority Int. in Earnings (6) (9) () () (6) Net Change in Cash (,6) () 7,6 7 Net Income 69 89 () Growth yoy% (.6%) (.%) n.a. n.a. n.a. Balance Sheet (RMBm) FY* FY6* FY7* FY8F* FY9F* Ratios FY* FY6* FY7* FY8F* FY9F* ASSETS Profitability Cash And Equivalents,79,698,78,98,97 Return on Assets %.9%.% (.6%).%.% Receivables,8,8 7,9 8,99 8,99 Return on Capital %.%.6% (.8%).%.6% Inventory 8 788,,, Return on Equity % 7.6%.9% (.%).6%.6% Other Current Assets 9,76,77, 968 968 Total Current Assets 9,,9,6 6,9 6,66 Margin Analysis Net Property, Plant & Equipment 79,88,76,, Gross Margin %.8%.%.% 9.% 9.6% Long-term Investments - - - - - SG&A Margin % 7.8%.%.% 7.% 7.% Other Intangibles - - - - - EBIT Margin %.% (.%) (.%).%.7% Deferred Tax Assets, LT - - - - - EBITDA Margin %.7%.6% (.6%).%.% Other Long-Term Assets 7,78 9,8,,88,88 Net Income Margin % 6.%.% (.%).%.% Goodwill - - - - - Accounts Receivable Long-Term - - - - - Asset Turnover Total Long Term Assets 8,,668,,8,8 Total Asset Turnover.x.x.x.x.6x Total Assets 7,9,76 7,96,6,69 Fixed Asset Turnover.x.x.9x.x.x Accounts Receivable Turnover.x.x.x.x.x LIABILITIES & EQUITY Inventory Turnover.x.x.8x.8x.x Accounts Payable,6,96 6,778 8, 8, Accrued Exp. - - - - - Liquidity Short-term Borrowings,,99,97 6,6 6,6 Current Ratio.x.x.x.x.x Curr. Port. of LT Debt - - - - - Quick Ratio.x.6x.7x.8x.8x Curr. Income Taxes Payable - - - - - Avg. Days Sales Out. 8. 7. 97. 97. 7.8 Unearned Revenue, Current - - - - - Avg. Days Inventory Out. 7.9..7.7 9.6 Other Current Liabilities,79 97 6 6 Avg. Days Payable Out.. 77. 6. 8..7 Total Current Liabilities,87,9,,, Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle 7. 8..6. 6. Long-Term Debt,77,66,8,8,8 Net Debt to Equity % 69% % % % Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. 8 8 7 Other Non-Current Liabilities 6 8 7 7 Growth Over Prior Year Total Liabilities 6,9,, 8, 8, Total Revenue (.%).% 8.%.6%.% Common Stock 68 68 68 Net Income (.6%) (.%) ######## (8.%).% Additional Paid In Capital - - - - - Payout Ratio %.% ######## %.%.% Retained Earnings 8,76 7, 8,9 9,7 9, Treasury Stock Comprehensive Inc. and Other - - - - - Minority Interest,7.9,.,68.,96.6,96.6 Total Equity,,7,79,68,9 Total Liabilities And Equity 7,9,76 7,96,6,69 Sources: Company, CGIS Research*: Only -Q data available for ; - data include the company s continuing operations as well as
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