T_FSAndVSAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo T_RelatedReport T_ReportAbstract 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 539.8 573.7 844.7 1,479.4 1,294.5 Growth(%) -4.0% 6.3% 21.3% 120.5% 57.6% 174.7 222.3 356.6 546.7 853.4 Growth(%) -1.8% 27.2% 60.4% 53.3% 56.1% 38.9% 37.7% 44.6% 52.0% 57.1% 32.4% 38.7% 42.2% 37.0% 65.9% 0.14 0.18 0.29 0.37 0.59 2.17 2.27 2.47 5.45 5.76 154 120 74 58 37 9.35 8.95 8.23 3.73 3.53 6.6% 8.0% 11.7% 6.8% 10.0% T_RankInfo -A 30.00 6 21.60 2008-01-28 T_MarketInfo 26,258.45 12,581.69 1,215.67 582.49 8.18/26.60 % 25.35% 66,353 12 % 23.69 4.55 32.33 18.29 (1.33) 134.38 T_Analyst 0755-23982963 taoxm@essences.com.cn 13602675867 1
1. 1.1. 1.2. 1.2.1. 2
1.2.2. 1.2.3. 1.3. 3
1.3.1. SMIC NEC 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 D AVS VOIP TD-SCDMA 64FT1960 CMOS 1/4 VGA CIS OLED (SCDMA) TD-SCDMA/GSM/GPRS 4
1.3.2. 5
1.3.3. 6
1.3.4. 7
1.3.4.1. 8
1.3.4.2. IT 1.3.4.3. 2. 9
3. 3.1. 3.1.1. 2006 10
3.1.2. 2007 60 3.1.3. 2008 11
3.1.3.1. 3.1.3.2. 3.1.3.3. 3.2. 12
4. 0810 50 4.1. 13
14
4.2. 4.3. 15
5. 5.1. 2 1000 3 4 5 45 2009 5.2. 5.2.1. NAV 5.2.2. PE 16
5.2.3. 30 / 6. 17
T_FSAndVS 2008-01-27 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 539.8 573.7 844.7 1,479.4 1,294.5 313.0 338.1 398.6 559.3 470.0 38.9% 37.7% 44.6% 52.0% 57.1% 17.0 19.5 69.5 150.9 84.7 EBITDA Margin 39.5% 45.4% 59.0% 53.3% 81.2% 209.7 216.1 376.6 769.1 739.8 EBIT Margin 39.0% 45.0% 58.5% 52.9% 80.6% 7.0 2.0 NOPLAT Margin 34.4% 40.1% 50.9% 45.2% 71.1% 17.8 22.1 33.8 59.2 51.8 32.4% 38.7% 42.2% 37.0% 65.9% 27.2 38.3 59.1 103.6 90.6 24.9 34.4 63.2 78.1 60.8 24.40 19.27 18.73 19.56 12.45 146.8 123.2 220.5 528.3 536.6 0.44 0.87 0.58 0.26 0.15 38.9 100.6 210.4 176.5 446.1 0.30 0.36 0.24 0.17 0.10 10.5 23.4 9.67 10.15 5.73 5.16 3.07 196.2 247.1 430.9 704.8 982.7 0.47 0.62 0.29 0.19 0.10 23.3 27.2 43.6 95.1 107.3 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.13 0.08 174.7 222.3 356.6 546.7 853.4 0.20 0.20 0.23 0.22 0.14 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 440.5 411.2 422.3 739.7 776.7 ROE 6.6% 8.0% 11.7% 6.8% 10.0% 26.6 86.5 208.3 364.8 478.8 ROA 5.2% 5.3% 4.1% 3.8% 4.6% 0.1 1.5 1.4 2.4 2.1 ROIC 7.9% 9.1% 13.3% 11.5% 11.1% 872.5 991.1 4,804.3 11,186.4 13,477.3 ROIC 7.0% 8.1% 11.5% 9.8% 9.8% 132.5 25.1 13.6 45.3 8.4 29.6 30.0 60.2 91.0 117.0-4.0% 6.3% 21.3% 120.5% 57.6% - 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 35.8% 3.0% 47.2% 104.2% -3.8% - - EBITDA 1.9% 22.1% 91.3% 58.3% 33.2% 1,723.7 2,615.5 3,181.6 2,117.1 3,506.5 EBIT 1.7% 22.6% 91.4% 58.4% 33.3% 3,386.9 4,179.7 8,706.6 14,562.6 18,383.8 NOPLAT 5.7% 23.8% 87.0% 55.5% 37.8% 568.3 685.6 700.0 700.0 700.0-1.8% 27.2% 60.4% 53.3% 56.1% 12.1 406.8 862.7 812.2 1,159.0-1.4% 15.3% 43.6% 110.7% 2.7% - 168.9 109.2 168.6 321.9 136.6 131.2 1,973.7 2,584.2 4,954.3 21.3% 33.4% 65.5% 45.4% 54.3% 3.6 4.6 2,059.4 2,341.2 2,844.5 27.3% 50.6% 190.1% 83.0% 118.7% -0.0 0.0 - - - -4.8% -9.9% -32.6% -7.0% -3.8% 720.6 1,397.1 5,705.0 6,605.1 9,977.7 2.28 1.09 1.49 2.89 2.07 24.1 21.8 52.5 115.5 137.4 1.06 0.38 0.18 0.27 0.18 1,215.7 1,215.7 1,215.7 1,458.8 1,458.8 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 1,426.5 1,545.1 1,785.9 6,498.7 6,947.3 DPS 0.07 0.08 0.13 0.17 0.26 2,642.2 2,760.8 3,001.6 7,957.5 8,406.1 45.2% 43.8% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 3,386.9 4,179.7 8,706.6 14,562.6 18,383.8 0.32% 0.39% 0.65% 0.83% 1.29% 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F EBIT 210.6 258.2 494.1 782.9 1,043.5 EBITDA 213.4 260.5 498.3 789.0 1,051.3 EBIT 25.0 28.4 64.4 114.6 122.5 EBIT 210.6 258.2 494.1 782.9 1,043.5 NOPLAT 185.7 229.8 429.7 668.2 921.0 NOPLAT 185.7 229.8 429.7 668.2 921.0 2.8 2.3 4.2 6.2 7.9 174.7 222.3 356.6 546.7 853.4 (638.5) (484.7) 2,089.7 6,269.3 (465.5) EPS 0.14 0.18 0.29 0.37 0.59 826.9 716.8 (1,655.8) (5,594.9) 1,394.3 BVPS 2.17 2.27 2.47 5.45 5.76 (17.6) (2.8) (34.5) (37.0) (33.8) PE(X) 141.47 111.19 69.31 54.25 34.75 (584.7) (890.7) 788.6 1,445.4 (687.1) PB(X) 9.35 8.95 8.23 3.73 3.53 (602.4) (893.5) 754.1 1,408.4 (720.9) CAGR 46.3% 56.6% 54.0% 224.6 (176.7) (901.7) (4,186.6) 673.4 PEG 3.06 1.96 1.28 (22.0) (30.7) (42.3) (58.5) (45.6) EV/EBITDA 115.85 95.99 52.48 39.36 29.37 73.5 117.3 714.4 (99.0) (199.0) EV/EBIT 117.36 96.86 52.93 39.67 29.59 87.3 118.6 240.8 4,955.9 448.6 EV/NOPLAT 133.16 108.84 60.86 46.48 33.53 (79.0) (97.3) (160.5) (246.0) (384.1) EV/IC 9.33 8.19 5.96 3.36 3.25 (1.7) (2.4) 30.8 63.0 21.9 ROIC/WACC 0.89 1.12 1.82 1.97 1.29 272.4 (81.9) 385.0 4,616.3 (157.1) REP 10.45 7.30 3.28 1.71 2.53 Wind.NET 18
T_AuthorInfo 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-68801216 liangtao@essences.com.cn 021-68801217 zhangqin@essences.com.cn 021-68801229 ligr@essences.com.cn 010-58331156 lixin@essences.com.cn 010-58331112 mazn@essences.com.cn 0755-23982944 panlin@essences.com.cn 0755-23982979 hesz2@essences.com.cn 0755-23982931 lijin@essences.com.cn 528 2008 200120 5 B 19 100034 4018 35 518026 19