2008 10 RESOURCESSCIENCE Vol.30,No.10 October,2008 :1007-7588 (2008) 10-1471-07 1,2, 1,2, 3 (11, 100101; 21, 100049; 31, 100038) :,, ARCΠINFO,, :,,, ;,, ;, 7114%,, 3312%, 4519% 1514% ;, 85% 60%,,, : ; ; ; ; 1, 10,, [1 3] ;,,, [4 8],,,,,, ARCΠINFO, ;,,, 2 211 3, [2 7], [8],,,,, -, : :2008-03-25; :2008-06-17 : : ( :KZCX22YW2323) :,,,, E2mail:zhangd.06s@igsnrr.ac.cn :,E2mail:Fengzm@igsnrr.ac.cn
2741 30 10 C = K P GΠW (1) : C ; P ( 10 4 ) ; G GDP ( 10 8 ) ; W, ( 10 8 m 3 ) ; K K = 110 R 200 110-0 11 ( R -200 )Π200 200 < R 400 019-0 12 ( R -400 )Π400 400 < R 800 017-0 12 ( R -800 )Π800 800 < R 1600 015 R > 1600 R (mm) (2) 1 [4,5,8] 1 Table1 Evaluationclassificationforcarryingindexofwaterresource C >10, 5 10, 2 5, 1 2, <1,, ) 311, 212,, ; :1956 2000 660, 30 (mm) ;, (m) ;1956 2000, ( 10 8 m 3 ), 2000 311 GDP1km 1km ( 10 4 Πkm 2 ) 2000 1, 1km 1km ( Πkm 2 ),, ALBERS ( Krasovsky - 1940 - Albers), 213 21311 ( W) ARCΠMAP,, ; 1956 2000,, 21312 ( K) 660, ARCΠMAP IDW UniversalKriging co2 Kriging3 [9 14] ;, co2kriging, (MRE) 1416%;, ( R) (2) K,, ZonalStatistics, K 21313 GDP ( G P), GDP Zonal Statistics,, GDP 21314 ( C), (1), 3 ( 1,, 2016 1215, ;, 4, 1816%, 3911%, 419 10 8,,, 011 110, ;,,,, 2
: 3741 2 Table2 Evaluationresultofcarryingindexofwater resourceinone 2orderbasin ( %) ( %) C 414 919 212 319 313 512 1014 314 2016 817 814 910 1611 315 1215 3414 1818 118 515 212 116 1218 611 110 116 819 011 212 3515 111 10010 10010 311 312 2,, 79 ( ) :, 2, 6516%,, 415 10 8 ;1614%, 519 10 8, 8310% 9018%, 9215% 9316%,,,,, 5215%, 8518%,, 018% 2210%,,, ( ),, ( ),, 3
4741 30 10
: 5741 3 Table3 Evaluationresultofcarryingindexofwaterresourceintwo 2orderbasin ( %) 0 0 0 1 811 2511 2 5214 6116 1 613 519 4 3313 714 1 912 2716 3 3712 5213 1 4318 1315 0 0 0 1 919 616 3 8310 9215 1 1710 715 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5215 8518 1 1410 617 1 1115 617 0 0 0 2 2210 018 4 9018 9316 0 0 0 1 912 614 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 210 1111 1 418 1110 3 2310 2610 4 3415 3817 3 3517 1313 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2110 3319 2 4118 4614 2 3712 1917 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 416 1118 3 3117 3913 6 6318 4819 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 100 100 1 111 111 0 0 0 2 1412 2812 3 3211 5414 8 5216 1613 14 1116 3812 7 418 814 13 1810 1719 13 2112 2115 32 4414 1410 313 3,, : 813%, 319 10 8 ;, 5714%, 216 10 8, : 7114%, 3312%, 4519% 1514% 4 4 Fig14 Thedistributionoflandareasandpopulation atdifferentcarryingindexofwaterresource,, ( 209, ) :,, 1318%; 6318%, 8518%;, 5714%, 6311%;, 3616%, 7018%;,,, ;, ; 514% 219%, 2010% 919%,, ;,96%,, ( ) ;, 4 4 (1),,,,
6741 30 10 4 Table4 Evaluationresultofcarryingindexofwaterresourceinthree 2orderbasin ( %) 1 314 1915 1 312 1011 2 2017 2919 4 1916 1911 10 5311 2113 1 316 1317 5 3212 5512 3 4119 2212 1 1214 213 2 919 616 11 6315 8518 3 2217 1017 1 1318 315 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 3616 7018 7 2218 1912 3 1215 612 0 0 0 5 2811 318 7 5714 6311 6 3017 30 2 1210 619 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 116 1110 3 318 819 10 1813 3116 8 2116 2513 20 5417 2311 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3815 6413 1 910 618 4 5215 2910 0 0 0 1 219 919 3 511 1219 2 1412 1615 13 7717 6016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 100 100 1 110 111 1 310 819 5 912 3314 8 1814 2616 18 6814 3010 39 813 3018 27 711 1511 33 1312 2019 24 1410 1216 86 5714 2016, ;, ;, (2),,, 7114%, 412 10 8, 3312%,, ;1514%, 518 10 8, 4519% (3) : 85% 60%, ;, ; 86% 62% ; ( References) : [1 ],,. [J].,2003,23 (3) :24 27.[SHIYan 2wu,KANGShao 2zhong,JIANYan 2hong. Designingofindicatorsystemassessmentofwater 2soilenvironmental effectonwaterresourcesdevelopmentincontinentalriverbasininarid areas[j]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2003,23 (3) :24 27.] [2 ]. [D]. :,2003.[SHIYan 2wu. StudyofWater2SoilEnvironmentalEffectAnalysisandAssessmenton WaterResourcesDevelopmentinInlandRiverbasininAridArea [D].Xi 2an:NorthwestSci 2TechUniversityofAgricultureand Forestry,2003.] [3 ],. [J].,2004,24 (11) :2509 2515.[SONGSong 2bai,CAI Huan2jie.Comprehensivequantitativeassessmentmodelsforecological environmentinaridarea[j]. Acta EcologicaSinica,2004,24 (11) : 2509 2515 1] [4 ],,,. [J].,2000,79 (2) :58 69.[JIANG Ding2sheng,FANXing 2ke,XUXue 2xuan,etal.Thepreliminary discussiononthepotentialityofrainfallresourceinyan 2ancityand itsefficiencyusemodels[j]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2000,7(2) :58 69.] [5 ],,,. [M]. :,2002.[SHIJian, CHENZhao2feng,XINGDa 2wei,etal.RationalDevelopmentand UtilizationofWaterresourcesandEcologicalEnvironmentProtection inguan 2zhongRegion[M].Zhengzhou:YellowRiverWater Conservancy,2002.] [6 ]. [D]. :,2005.[XIAJian 2guo.StudyonEvaluation andoptimalallocationofagriculturalwaterresourcesinsichuan Province[D].Chongqing:SouthwestAgriculturalUniversity,2005.] [7 ],. [J].,2006, 26( 5) :20 24.[CHENGGuai 2mei,HEShi 2hua.Evaluationof sustainableutilizationofregionalwaterresources[j]. Journal of China Hydrology,2006,26 (5) :20 24.] [8 ],. [J].,2006,21 (5) :689 699.[FENGZhi 2ming, LIUDeng2wei.Aresearchonwaterresourcescarryingcapacityin JingjinjiRegion[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2006,21 (5) :689 699.] [9 ],,. [J].,2006,8 (4) :75 79,83.[LIUDeng 2wei, FENGZhi 2ming,YANGYan 2zhao.Astudyontheexpressing techniquesofbattlefieldsituationevolutionandvariationbasedongis anditsapplication[j]. Geo2information Science, 2006,8 (4) :75 79,83.] [10],,,. [J].,2007,2 (3) :29 34.[ LIUYin2wen,LAIGe 2ying,CHENYuan 2zeng,etal.Aresearchon rainfallspatialinterpolationmethodsbasedongis[j]. Journal of Subtropical Resourcesand Environment, 2007,2(3) :29 34.]
: 7741 [11],. [J]. ( ),2005,33 (4) :361 365.[SHIPeng,RUI Xiao2fang.Comparisonandimprovementofspatialrainfall interpolationmethods[j]. Journal of Hohai University ( Natural Sciences), 2005,33(4) :361 365.] [12] K.N. Dirks,J.E.Hay,C.D.Stow,etal.High 2resolutionstudiesof rainfallonnorfolkisland.part :interpolationofrainfalldata[j]. Journal of Hydrology,1998,208:187 193. [13] David T.Price,DanielW.McKenney,IanA.Nalder,etal.A comparisonoftwostatisticalmethodsforspatialinterpolationof Canadianmonthlymeanclimatedata[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2000,101:81 941 [14]. [J]., 2004,24 (2) :163 169.[YANHong.Modelingspatialdistributionof climateinchinausingthinplatesmoothingsplineinterpolation[j]. Scientia GeographicaSinica,2004,24 (2) :163 169.] EvaluationofWaterResourceinThird 2OrderBasins inchinabasedoncarryingcapacity ZHANGDan 1,2,FENGZhi2ming 1,LIUDeng2wei 3 (11 Institute of GeographicSciencesand Natural ResourcesResearch, ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Beijing100101, China ;2 1 GraduateUniversityof the ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Beijing100049, China ;3 1 DevelopmentResearchCenter, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China) Abstract: Basedonthedefinitionofwaterresourcecarryingcapacityindex,accordingtotheWater ResourcePartitionmapofChina,andusingARC ΠINFOsoftware,thispapercalculatesandanalyzesthe carryingcapacityoffirst 2order,second 2orderandthird 2orderbasinsinChina,andquantitativelydescribes theutilizationdegreeandexploitationpotentialofwaterresourcesindifferentregionsofchina.theresults showsthatingeneral,thecarryingcapacityindexforchina πswaterresourcesbelongstogradeiii,which showsthattheutilizationdegreeofwaterresourcesinchinaisatamediumlevelandtheexploitation potentialislarge.theregionalvariationinthecarryingcapacityofwaterresourcesismarked,withthe areaswithlowwaterresourceexploitationpotentialmainlylocatedinthehuang 2Huai2HaiBasin,Song 2 LiaoRiverBasinandotherriversinthenorthwest.Atthefirst 2orderbasinscale,theHaiandHuairiver basinshavethelowestexploitationpotentialandbelongtogradei,whilethepearlriverbasinandother riversinthesouthwesthavethehighestpotentialandbelongtogradev.theexploitationpotentialofthe YellowRiverBasinandLiaoRiverBasinbelongstogradeIIandthatoftheYangtzeRiverBasinandother riversinthenorthwestandsoutheastbelongstogradeiv.atthescaleofthird 2orderbasins,thelandarea withhighexploitationpotentialarea (gradesivandv ) accountsfor71.4%ofchina πstotallandarea, with420millionpeople,or33.2%ofthetotalpopulation.thelandareawithlowexploitationpotential (gradesiandii ) onlyconstitutes15.4%ofthetotal,butthereare580millionpeoplelivingthere,45. 9%ofthetotalpopulation.Withone 2thirdofallpeoplelivinginregionswithhighexploitationpotential, whichconstitutetwo 2thirdsoftotallandarea,andmorethantwo 2fifthsofpeoplelivinginareaswithlow exploitationpotentialareawhichmakeupone 2sixthoftotalarea,itcanbeconcludedthatthedistribution ofpopulationisnotwell 2matchedtothedistributionofwaterresources.Thedifferencesinwaterresource utilizationandexploitationpotentialbetweenthetenriverbasinsareobviousaswell.morethan85%of landareainthehaiandhuairiverbasinsand60%oflandareaintheyellowriverbasinhaslow exploitationpotential (gradeiandii ),andabout40%oflandareaintheliaoheriverbasinbelongsto gradeiii.withtheexceptionoftailakeandthepearlriverdelta,theexploitationpotentialofthe YangtzeandPearlRiverBasinsishigh.Meanwhile,86%oftheNorthwestRiverBasinand62%ofthe SoutheastRiverBasinhavehighexploitationpotential.TheentireSouthwestRiverBasinhasthehighest levelofexploitationpotential (gradev ). Keywords :Waterresources;Carryingcapacityindex;ExploitationPotential;Riverbasins;China