2018 Hong Kong Market Outlook Summary (English Translation) 2018 年港股展望摘要 Research Department 11 January 2018 Summary: There are signs that show that economic growth in China is again slowing down slightly, but China is still experiencing medium-to-high speed growth. Meanwhile, labour market shortages persist. Environmental awareness continues to increase, which promotes the economic restructuring in China. Real estate sales is expected to decline, while real estate investment and areas of housing newly started construction is expected to remain at their current levels. Deceleration in investment growth is expected to continue but external trade is expected to maintain its momentum. Consumption is expanding steadily. Under the new mode of consumption, personalization of consumption, consumption by the elderly and new retail will be the new catalysts. B2B e-commerce platforms are optimizing traditional distribution channels. New technologies are enhancing shopping experiences. The younger generation has gradually become the mainstay of consumers. The vitality demonstrated by consumption has become the cornerstone of medium-to-high speed economic growth in China. China will continue to strengthen financial supervision to guard against financial risks. Price levels are expected to rise moderately. Monetary policy is expected to be prudent and neutral, but liquidity slightly tighter. The US economy is still in its expansion phase. After taking into account factors such as mild inflation and the reversal of capital flow, balance sheet shrinkage by the US Fed and tax cuts will still push US interest rates upward. The global economy is undergoing healthy growth. The exchange rate of the RMB is expected to be relatively stable. The Stock Connect amplified the influence of mainland funds and momentum has not ended. State-owned enterprise reforms offer investment themes for the market. Market conditions are unfavorable to the bond market, but we expect that the stock market will be able to remain strong while the commodity market will trend upward. 2018 is the year when global monetary policy normalization gradually comes into effect. Despite the negative factors in the first half of the year, supportive factors still remain strong. The market is expected to continue to reach record highs and then to fluctuate at high levels. High earnings growth in 2017 will be hard to maintain. Based on weighted average market capitalization, the overall earnings growth forecasts for companies under our coverage for 2017/ 2018/ 2019 are 28.2%/ 21.5%/ 17.0%, respectively. If we exclude US listed stocks, our overall earnings growth forecasts for 2017/ 2018/ 2019 become 21.7%/ 15.2%/ 10.5%, respectively. The consensus for HSI earnings growth forecasts in 2017/ 2018/ 2019 is 23.8%/ 9.9%/ 12.5%, respectively. We are optimistic about the internet, clean energy (natural gas, solar and wind), cement and construction materials, environmental protection, telecommunications equipment and consumer (apparel) sectors. The petrochemicals, nonferrous metals, ports and infrastructure sectors will provide short-term trading opportunities. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 5
Top picks under GTJA International coverage Sectors Company Name Code Rating 6-18m TP (HKD) Automobiles & Components GEELY AUTO 00175 HK Buy 34.54 Aviation AIR CHINA 00753 HK Accumulate 10.27 Banking BOC HONG KONG 02388 HK Buy 47.52 Cement and Construction Materials ANHUI CONCH 00914 HK Buy 44.00 Clean energy - Natural Gas CHINA RES GAS 01193 HK Buy 38.40 Clean energy - Solar GCL-POLY ENERGY 03800 HK Buy 1.50 Clean energy - Wind & Others HN RENEWABLES 00958 HK Buy 3.30 Consumer -- Food & Beverage DALI FOODS 03799 HK Buy 7.30 Consumer -- Apparel ANTA SPORTS 02020 HK Accumulate 38.00 Consumer -- Retailing HAIER ELECTRONICS GROUP 01169 HK Buy 25.12 Consumer -- Hotels JINJIANG HOTELS 02006 HK Buy 3.20 Environmental Protection CHINA EB INT'L 00257 HK Buy 12.76 Health Care CSPC PHARMA 01093 HK Accumulate 17.07 Infrastructure CHINA STATE CON 03311 HK Buy 15.68 Infrastructure CH ENERGY ENG 03996 HK Buy 1.70 Insurance CHINA TAIPING 00966 HK Buy 35.50 Internet TENCENT 00700 HK Buy 500.00 Internet ALIBABA GROUP BABA US Buy US$215.00 Machinery HAITIAN INT'L 01882 HK Buy 26.50 Petrochemicals CNOOC 00883 HK Accumulate 12.50 Property CHINA OVERSEAS 00688 HK Buy 31.88 Shipping and Logistics SINOTRANS 00598 HK Buy 5.00 Ports COSCO SHIP PORT 01199 HK Accumulate 9.00 Telecommunication Services CHINA TELECOM 00728 HK Buy 4.70 Source: Guotai Junan International. Note: Analysis in the 2018 Hong Kong Market Outlook was based on closing prices as at 29 December 2017. Top picks are listed by sector in alphabetical order. See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 5
2018 年港股展望 摘要 : 国内经济增长再有减速迹象, 但仍于中高速的发展区间, 劳动力市场供不应求持续 环保意识不断提升, 推动经济结构转型 房地产销售将下降, 投资和新开工面积仅维持 投资增长继续放缓, 外贸延续向好 消费增长平稳, 在新的模式下, 如个性化 老年消费 新零售等形成增长点 B2B 电商平台优化传统的分销渠道, 新技术提升用户购物体验, 年轻一代逐渐成为消费主力 消费展现的活力成为维持国内经济中高速发展的基石 国内继续加强金融监管, 防范金融风险 通胀温和上升, 货币政策稳健中性, 流动性略紧 美国经济仍处于扩张阶段, 在考虑其通胀仍会温和, 资金回流等因素, 缩表和减税仍会推动其利率上行 外围经济总体增长良好 人民币汇率将相对稳定 互联互通增加内地资金的影响力, 动能仍未结束 国企改革增加市场投资题材, 市场环境不利债市, 预期股市可维持, 商品应上行 2018 年是全球货币政策正常化逐渐见效的一年 上半年虽有负面因素, 但市场支持因素仍强劲 预期是续创新高后于高位波动的格局 盈利增长难以维持 2017 年的高增长 按照市值加权平均计算, 我们覆盖的公司在 2017-2019 年的盈利增长预测分别为 28.2% 21.5% 和 17.0% 若剔除在美上市的企业,2017 2019 年的盈利增长分别为 21.7% 15.2% 和 10.5% 恒指市场一致预期的盈利增长预测则为 23.8% 9.9% 和 12.5% 我们看好互联网 清洁能源 ( 天然气, 太阳能, 风电 ) 水泥建材 环保 通讯设备 消费 ( 服装 ) 行业, 而石化 有色 港口和基建则有阶段性交易的机会 国泰君安国际荐股名单 行业公司名称代码评级 6 至 18 个月目标价 ( 港元 ) 汽车及零部件吉利汽车 00175 HK 买入 34.54 航空中国国际航空 00753 HK 收集 10.27 银行业中银香港 02388 HK 买入 47.52 水泥建材海螺水泥 00914 HK 买入 44.00 清洁能源 -- 天然气华润燃气 01193 HK 买入 38.40 清洁能源 -- 太阳能保利协鑫 03800 HK 买入 1.50 清洁能源 -- 风电及其它华能新能源 00958 HK 买入 3.30 消费 -- 食品饮料达利食品 03799 HK 买入 7.30 消费 -- 服装安踏体育 02020 HK 收集 38.00 消费 -- 零售海尔电器 01169 HK 买入 25.12 消费 -- 酒店锦江酒店 02006 HK 买入 3.20 环保光大国际 00257 HK 买入 12.76 医药石药集团 01093 HK 收集 17.07 基建中国建筑国际 03311 HK 买入 15.68 基建中国能建 03996 HK 买入 1.70 保险中国太平 00966 HK 买入 35.50 互联网腾讯 00700 HK 买入 500.00 互联网阿里巴巴 BABA US 买入 US$215.00 机械海天国际 01882 HK 买入 26.50 石化中海油 00883 HK 收集 12.50 房地产中国海外发展 00688 HK 买入 31.88 航运及物流中国外运 00598 HK 买入 5.00 港口中远海运港口 01199 HK 收集 9.00 电信服务中国电信 00728 HK 买入 4.70 资料来源 : 国泰君安国际 注 : 展望中所有分析均基于 2017 年 12 月 29 日的收市价 按行业英文首字母排序 See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 5
Research Department 研究部 Grace Liu 刘谷 Head of Research, Market Strategy, Petrochemicals 主管, 市场策略 石化 grace.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7516 Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费 ( 酒店 ) 博彩 noah.hudson@gtjas.com (86755) 23976684 Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection, Infrastructure 环保 基建 gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2616 Kevin Guo 郭勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料 燃气 kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 23976671 Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunications, Internet 电信 互联网 ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2603 Richard Cao 曹柱 Banking 银行 caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 23976870 Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Solar, Electric Equipment 太阳能 电力设备 junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7592 Andrew Song 宋涛 Consumer (Retailing), Home Appliances 消费 ( 零售 ) 家电 andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5313 Van Liu 刘斐凡 Property 房地产 liufeifan@gtjas.com (86755) 23976672 Sean Xiang 向宇豪 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械 建材 xiangyuhao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976725 Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费 ( 服装 ) hongxueyu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976722 Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Macroeconomics, Property 宏观 房地产 johnny.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5348 Toliver Ma 马守彰 Aviation, Automobiles & Components 航空 汽车 toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5317 Spencer Fan 范明 Shipping & Logistics, Ports, 航运物流 港口 fanming@gtjas.com (86755) 23976686 Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Consumer (Food & Beverage, Household Products) 消费 ( 食品饮料 日用品 ) wuyuyang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976680 Jake Wang 汪昌江 Wind & others, Market Strategy 风电及其它 市场策略 wangchangjiang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976675 Wiley Huang 黄重钧 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险 债券 wiley.huang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5409 David Liu 刘静骁 Petrochemicals 石化 david.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5441 Kay Mai 麦梓琪 Health care 医药 maiziqi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976685 Danny Law 罗沛达 Conglomerate, E-commerce 综合 电子商务 danny.law@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7768 Gary Ching 程嘉伟 Market Strategy 市场策略 gary.ching@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2665 Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures, Forex 期货 外汇 square.chui@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2629 Gary Yang 杨光 Research Assistant 研究助理 gary.yang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2642 Danny Deng 邓协 Research Assistant 研究助理 danny.deng@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5464 Jason Zhou 周桓葳 Research Assistant 研究助理 jason.zhou@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5347 David Feng 冯廷帅 Research Assistant 研究助理 david.feng@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2113 Michael Shea 佘立东 Translator 翻译员 michael.shea@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 7584 Susan Wang 王小定 Translator 翻译员 wangxiaoding013163@gtjas.com (86755) 23976732 Daniel Wong 黄茂基 English Report Editor, Internal Auditor 编辑 审核 daniel.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 5384 Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理 翻译员 zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com (86755) 23976681 Penny Pan 潘凌蕾 Secretary, Translator 秘书 翻译员 penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 2509 2632 See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 5
Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) Except for Shenzhen International Holdings Limited (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for GREENLAND BROAD (01253 HK),GUOTAI JUNAN INTERNATIONAL (01788 HK),BINHAI INVESTMENT (02886 HK),GFI MSCI A I (03156 HK),CAM SCSMALLCAP (03157 HK),LINK HOLDINGS (08237 HK),GFI MSCI A I-R (CNY) (83156 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with Guangzhou R&F Properties- H shares (02777 HK) / Binhai Investment (02886 HK) / TANSH Global Food (03666 HK) / China South City (01668 HK) / Tianyun International (06836 HK) / Country Garden (02007 HK) / China Minsheng Banking Corp.- H shares (01988 HK) / Sino Biopharmaceutical (01177 HK) / Huaneng Renewables- H shares (00958 HK) / Huaneng Power- H shares (00902 HK) / Charmacy Pharmaceutical- H shares (02289 HK) / Huishang Bank- H shares (03698 HK) / Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK) / Modern Land (01107 HK) / SMI Holdings Group (00198 HK) / Evergrande Real Estate (03333 HK) / GOME Electrical Appliances (00493 HK) / Dongjiang Environmental- H shares (00895 HK) / China Singyes Solar Technologies (00750 HK) / China Wood Optimization (01885 HK) / China Aoyuan Property (03883 HK) / Dali Foods (03799 HK) / 3SBio (01530 HK) / Sundart Holdings Ltd. (01568 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2018 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 5