Energy Revolution and Renewable Development in China

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1 中国能源革命与可再生能源发展 Energy Revolution and Renewable Energy Development in China 李俊峰 LI Junfeng 国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心 National Center for Climate Change and International Cooperation March, 2017 / Tokyo, Japan

China Calls for Energy Revolution 国家主席习近平倡导积极推动中国能源生产和消费革命 President Xi's call for Energy Revolution Energy Production and Consumption Reform 中国提出, 二氧化碳排放 2030 年左右达到峰值, 单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比 2005 年下降

2 China Calls for Energy Revolution 国家主席习近平倡导积极推动中国能源生产和消费革命 President Xi's call for Energy Revolution Energy Production and Consumption Reform 中国提出, 二氧化碳排放 2030 年左右达到峰值, 单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比 2005 年下降 60%-65%, 非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到 20% 左右 China aims to peak its greenhouse gas emissions, to cut its emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 60-65% from 2005 levels, and to increase the share of non-fossil fuels as part of its primary energy consumption to about 20% by 2030.

3 Renewable Energy Facilitates Energy Revolution 2016 年中国风电装机容量达到 1.5 亿千瓦, 光伏装机容量达到 7700 万千瓦, 均位列世界第一我国已成为水电风电太阳能发电装机世界第一大国 China is leading the world in wind (150GW), solar (77GW) and hydro (331GW) installations. Wind, 9.3% Solar, 4.9% GW Hydro, 20.7% Coal-fire, 65.1% 2016 China s cumulative installation Solar, 28.7% Wind, 15.5% Nuclear, 6.0% GW Hydro, 9.7% Coal-fire, 40.1% 2016 China s new-added installation

4 Renewable Energy Facilitates Energy Revolution 2016 年, 全年新增风电装机 1930 万千瓦, 累计并网装机容量达到 1.49 亿千瓦, 占全部发电装机容量的 9%, 风电发电量 2410 亿千瓦时, 占全部发电量的 4% New-added(10MW) (GW) Cumulative(10MW) (GW) In 2016, China installed 19.3GW of wind, with cumulative installed capacity of 149 GW, generated 241 billion kwh China s wind power installation 0

5 Renewable Energy Facilitates Energy Revolution 2016 年, 光伏发电新增装机 3454 万千瓦, 累计装机容量 7742 万千瓦, 全年发电量 662 亿千瓦时, 占我国全年总发电量的 1% In 2016, China installed GW of Solar PV, and the country s cumulative installed solar capacity reached GW, generated 66.2 billion kwh. Utility Distributed (GW) China s solar PV installation

6 中国电力发展十三五规划 China s Power Sector 13th Five Year Plan China s electric power consumption will reach 6,800-7,200 TWh of electricity, increasing on average by % each year. China s electric generation capacity will reach 2,000 GW by 2020, with an average increase of 5.5% each year.

7 中国电力发展十三五规划 China s Power Sector 13th Five Year Plan 非化石能源发电装机达到 7.7 亿千瓦左右, 比 2015 年增加 2.5 亿千瓦左右, 占比 39%, 提高 4 个 Hydro, 17% 百分点, 发电量占比提高到 31%, 满足 15% 非化石能源消费比重的要求 Wind, 10% According to the plan, China will achieve its 15% non-fossil energy consumption target by Nonfossil power capacity will reach 770GW, accounting for 39% of total power installation, generating 31% of the country s electric power. Solar, 5% Gas, 5% Bio, 1% Others, 4% GW Coal-fire, 55% Nuclear, 3% 2020 China s electric power installation

8 中国风电发展十三五规划 China s Wind Power Development 13th Five Year Plan China aims to have total installed wind capacity of 210 GW by 2020, of which 5 GW will be off-shore wind projects.

9 中国风电发展十三五规划 China s Wind Power Development 13th Five Year Plan 420 TWh of electricity will be generated from wind, accounting for 6% of total electric power supply. Wind curtailment is targeted to be solved.

中国风电发展十三五规划 China s Wind Power Development 13th Five Year Plan From 2016 to 2020, newly installed on-shore and off-shore wind capacity in China s eastern and

10 中国风电发展十三五规划 China s Wind Power Development 13th Five Year Plan From 2016 to 2020, newly installed on-shore and off-shore wind capacity in China s eastern and southern area will reach 57% of the country s total newadded wind installation. The eastern and southern area will account for 1/3 of the country s cumulative wind capacity.

11 From 2016 to 2020, wind power investment will reach 700 billion CNY, reduce 380 million tons of CO2 emissions per year, generate 420 TWh of electricity, and create 300 thousand jobs. China s National Targets Support Renewable Energy 中国风电发展十三五规划 China s Wind Power Development 13th Five Year Plan

12 中国太阳能发展十三五规划 China s Solar Development 13th Five Year Plan 到 2020 年, 太阳能发电装机达到 1.1 亿千瓦以上, 其中光伏发电装机 1.05 亿千瓦以上, 太阳能热发电装机达到 500 万千瓦 The 2020 solar target is more than 110GW, split into 105 GW of solar PV and 5 GW of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP).

13 中国太阳能发展十三五规划 China s Solar Development 13th Five Year Plan 到 2020 年, 光伏发电电价水平在 2015 年基础上下降 50% 以上, 在用电侧实现平价上网目标 ; 太阳能热发电成本低于 0.8 元 / 千瓦时 PV generation cost is committed to reduce over 50% on the basis of 2015 level, reaching grid parity by 2020.

中国太阳能发展十三五规划 China s Solar Development 13th Five Year Plan 大力推进屋顶分布式光伏发电, 到 2020 年建成 100 个分布式光伏应用示范园结合电力体制改革开展分布式光伏发电市场化交易 Distributed PV enjoys a very prominent position

14 中国太阳能发展十三五规划 China s Solar Development 13th Five Year Plan 大力推进屋顶分布式光伏发电, 到 2020 年建成 100 个分布式光伏应用示范园结合电力体制改革开展分布式光伏发电市场化交易 Distributed PV enjoys a very prominent position in the plan. 100 DG demonstration parks are expected to set up by Innovative business models and PV power market shall be created to stimulate demand in the DG segment.

中国太阳能发展十三五规划 China s Solar Development 13th Five Year Plan 合理布局光伏电站, 结合电力外送通道建设太阳能发电基地, 实施光伏领跑者计划 Improve the planning of scaled groundmounted PV power bases, and increase renewable energy

15 中国太阳能发展十三五规划 China s Solar Development 13th Five Year Plan 合理布局光伏电站, 结合电力外送通道建设太阳能发电基地, 实施光伏领跑者计划 Improve the planning of scaled groundmounted PV power bases, and increase renewable energy electricity share in the capacity of transmission channels. Implement the competitive bidding mechanism based Top-Runner-Program. In 2016, Top-Runner-Program expanded to 5.5 GW, accounting for 30% of last year s guiding target.

16 中国太阳能发展十三五规划 China s Solar Development 13th Five Year Plan PV Poverty Alleviation Projects CSP Demonstration Projects New Energy Micro-Grid Pilots Solar Heating Projects

17 中国十三五规划中的其他可再生能源电力 China s 13th Five Year Plan other renewable energy technologies 水电发电装机达到 340GW, 十三五期间新增 40GW Add 40 GW hydropower capacity, with total installation reaching 340 GW by 到 2020 年, 生物质发电装机达到 15GW Reach 15 GW of bioenergy generation capacity by 2020.

习近平倡议探讨构建全球能源互联网, 推动以清洁和绿色方式满足全球电力需求 President Xi proposed discussion on establishing a global energy network to facilitate efforts to meet the global power

18 习近平倡议探讨构建全球能源互联网, 推动以清洁和绿色方式满足全球电力需求 President Xi proposed discussion on establishing a global energy network to facilitate efforts to meet the global power demand with clean and green alternatives. Global transcontinental power trading in 2016 Source: Global Energy Interconnection Development and Outlook Report 2017, GEIDCO.

19 全球能源互联网近中期发展重点区域 Highlight development regions in the short and mid-term. 非洲 - 欧洲 - 西亚 Africa-Europe-West Asia (Af-Eu-WA) 欧洲东亚西亚和北非纳入统筹考虑 Europe, East Asia, West Asia and North Africa are taken into the overall strategic consideration. 中国西南三省 - 东南亚 - 南亚 Southwest China- Southeast Asia- South Asia (Cn-SEA-SA) Source: Global Energy Interconnection Development and Outlook Report 2017, GEIDCO.

全球能源互联网展望 : 合纵连横 Global outlook: vertical

solar energy on the Equator Source: Global

20 全球能源互联网展望 : 合纵连横 Global outlook: vertical integration and horizontal connection 之字能源 Z Energy Source Zone = 北极风电 wind power in the Arctic + 45 度能源带 45 energy source belt + 赤道太阳能 solar energy on the Equator Source: Global Energy Interconnection Development and Outlook Report 2017, GEIDCO.

中国能源发展十三五规划 China s Energy Development 13th Five Year Plan 互联网 + 智慧能源发展 Internet Plus Smart Energy 推动可再生能源生产智能化, 集中式与分布式储能协同发展, 能源消费智能化 China aims

21 中国能源发展十三五规划 China s Energy Development 13th Five Year Plan 互联网 + 智慧能源发展 Internet Plus Smart Energy 推动可再生能源生产智能化, 集中式与分布式储能协同发展, 能源消费智能化 China aims to achieve smart energy system, integrating energy production, transmission, storage and consumption with the internet, cloud computing and big data.

扎耶德未来能源奖 The Zayed Future Energy Prize 扎耶德未来能源奖由阿联酋政府设立于 2008 年, 致力于弘扬环境社会与经济的与可持续发展, 体现了阿联酋已故国父谢赫扎耶德本苏旦阿勒纳哈扬的愿景已有 2.89 亿世界人口受益于获奖者在可持续发展方面所做出的贡献获取更多信息, 请访问 :www.zayedfutureenergyprize.com.

22 扎耶德未来能源奖 The Zayed Future Energy Prize 扎耶德未来能源奖由阿联酋政府设立于 2008 年, 致力于弘扬环境社会与经济的与可持续发展, 体现了阿联酋已故国父谢赫扎耶德本苏旦阿勒纳哈扬的愿景已有 2.89 亿世界人口受益于获奖者在可持续发展方面所做出的贡献获取更多信息, 请访问 : The Zayed Future Energy Prize was established by the UAE leadership in 2008 in honour of the environmental, social, and economic sustainability advocated by the nation s founding father, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan (God bless his soul). More than 289 million people are experiencing the sustainable actions of the prize s winners. For more information, please visit 阿布扎比国际能源周 (ADSW), 由 Masdar 主办, 是阿布扎比政府发起的, 旨在解决清洁能源水和可持续发展有关的挑战世界未来能源峰会主持,ADSW 包含一系列会议展览和活动, 包括国际可再生能源机构的联合国大会扎耶德未来能源奖颁奖典礼, 国际水资源峰会中东固体废物处理回收与利用展览会和马斯达城节 ADSW 是辐射中东地区国家规模最大的可再生能源会议, 吸引着全球的政策制定者行业思想领袖和清洁技术创新者, 汇集来自 170 余国家的 3 万 5 千余名参会人员 The annual Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW), hosted by Masdar, is an Abu Dhabi government initiative that aims to address the interconnected challenges of clean energy, water and sustainable development. Anchored by the World Future Energy Summit, ADSW features a series of complementary conferences, exhibitions and events, including the general assembly of the International Renewable Energy Agency, the Award Ceremony of the Zayed Future Energy Prize, the International Water Summit, EcoWASTE and The Festival at Masdar City. ADSW is the largest gathering on sustainability in the Middle East, attracting global policy makers, industry thought-leaders and clean-tech innovators among more than 35,000 attendees representing around 170 countries.

23 THANK YOU! 国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心 National Center for Climate Change and International Cooperation

Chinese oil import policies and reforms 随着经济的发展, 目前中国石油消费总量已经跃居世界第二作为一个负责任的大国, 中国正在积极推进能源进口多元化, 鼓励替代

Chinese oil import policies and reforms SINOPEC EDRI 2014.8 Chinese oil import policies and reforms 随着经济的发展, 目前中国石油消费总量已经跃居世界第二作为一个负责任的大国, 中国正在积极推进能源进口多元化,